[TOWN WINS] ASB Halloween Mafia

Re: [D6] ASB Halloween Mafia

Wait, but Sandstone-Shadow's flip pretty clearly implicates Butterfree, right?

Like, there can't be three town doctors in a game, but from a game-design standpoint, what better way would there be to balance out the potential power of two doctors with a third doctor, who's aligned with the mafia but doesn't know who they are (raising the potential of them actually conflicting with the mafia, like a normal terrorist role) and gets inspected as innocent? And what better way would there be to balance out a mafia-godfather-doctor than to have them not know who the other mafia are, and to include two town doctors for the possibility of overdose?

And there's always the possibility of mafia being able to fake results or something. There can only be 2 mafia left alive right now, since they haven't won, so that means 3 mafia in total at the start of the game, which seems pretty low unless some of them have power roles or a way to mess with inforoles, like being able to frame people or something.

Re: [D6] ASB Halloween Mafia

Anyway, I healed ILS like I said I would. Maybe Butterfree only went along with the plan because she knew she'd get inspected as innocent either way?

Re: [D6] ASB Halloween Mafia

Hmmm, this is perplexing. If neither Ghzoom nor Sandstone-Shadow are mafia, then who is it? I mean, besides Butterfree, seeing as that's just the process of elimination speaking by now (I'm assuming there was either godfather or, most likely, an ill-advised bus involved in how ILS got that inspection result).

I wonder if any of the dead inno flips we have in hands were actually a terrorist? Or if ZM was supposed to be some really twisted sort of third mafioso? At any rate, if we lynch Butterfree and the game's not over by then, I suppose Keldeo would be next on the chopping block -- by actual lynch or by my nightkill as necessary -- seeing as even though I did get a town check on that, who knows the amount of ways that could've gone wrong, at this point?

Re: [D6] ASB Halloween Mafia

Well, seeing as I am in fact not mafia, this is pretty perplexing.

The only person not inspected innocent is Eifie, who's acted very, very pro-town. Iiii'm thinking we may have some godfathering going on, and it's like... MF and Keldeo? Or something? Jeez, what. (If it was Eifie all along, hats off.)

Seeing as the mafia might win if we mislynch here, I would like to point out that seeing as I have been inspected as town, it's not by any means obvious that the best lynch target is me; if there's a mafia doctor, it could just as well be Keldeo, who was only indirectly inspected as town (although I kind of doubt this, because again, a mafia doctor could easily have overdosed ILS when I announced I'd heal him - note, too, that if I were mafia doctor I could have overdosed him last night to kill an additional guaranteed useful innocent, but clearly I didn't).

That being said, I doubt this train is going to turn at this point, which is unfortunate. Negrek/possibly Eifie all along, you are a devious bastard.

Re: [D6] ASB Halloween Mafia

Butterfree said:

Well, seeing as I am in fact not mafia, this is pretty perplexing.

The only person not inspected innocent is Eifie, who's acted very, very pro-town. Iiii'm thinking we may have some godfathering going on, and it's like... MF and Keldeo? Or something? Jeez, what. (If it was Eifie all along, hats off.)

Seeing as the mafia might win if we mislynch here, I would like to point out that seeing as I have been inspected as town, it's not by any means obvious that the best lynch target is me; if there's a mafia doctor, it could just as well be Keldeo, who was only indirectly inspected as town (although I kind of doubt this, because again, a mafia doctor could easily have overdosed ILS when I announced I'd heal him - note, too, that if I were mafia doctor I could have overdosed him last night to kill an additional guaranteed useful innocent, but clearly I didn't).

That being said, I doubt this train is going to turn at this point, which is unfortunate. Negrek/possibly Eifie all along, you are a devious bastard.

Click to expand...

Okay, I waited 72 whole hours just to say "bye bye Butterfree", but with ILS's inspection result, you being the first to claim doctor, and the fact that ILS did not die of overdose last night, I'm not really thinking of you as a good lynch target anymore. Everyone else has been inspected innocent by someone... I think I'd like to go for Keldeo, because a like, transitively-innocent inspection seems like the weakest link here. What do you think?

Re: [D6] ASB Halloween Mafia

Ah, and here I thought this would be an unventful Day! Mafiosi who actually put up a fight are quite entertaining.

We definitely have more town clears than would be reasonable for us to have at this point, all put together. Maybe someone in the middle of the equation is a godfather! That's what godfathers are there for, after all; it's so we can't all just throw a cop at every problem. That said, unless we have any real reason to believe one (out of Butterfree, myself, or Keldeo) is likelier to be godfather than another, we'll just be running off our role PMs, which we can only ever convince exactly one person to look at. (Unless Negrek wants to cut me some entirely unfair slack, that is! I'm not gonna start sounding like I'm complaining in that case, eh? ... eh, that'd be boring.)

The rationale I've presented for my own part still stands: Butterfree is likeliest to be the false clear -- if only because, besides the godfather hypothesis, we have an additional hypothesis, which strikes me as likelier, that Ghzoom swapped off Butterfree last night and ended up producing a false positive that way; this sort of shenanigan is, as far as we can presently tell, less likely to have happened to me N0. Besides, I still have my kill and my block, so, if this does result to be a mislynch, I can fix it promptly.

(Of course, all of this runs of the assumption that I'm innocent and telling the truth about my role, but let's be real, if I'm not, then chances would be that Town is screwed anyway unless you lynch me here and now. But if I am telling the truth, lynching me here and now is a mislynch that I can't fix at night, so Town loses. So, you know! Food for thought.)

Now, I know Butterfree hasn't produced any mafia doc clashes, and she was the first to claim. None of this is all that important. Exploiting our agreements to stage a healer clash would out Butterfree promptly if she did it, but more to the point, shock and awe, mafiosi lie about their role sometimes. That happens! Malevolent, isn't it? In fact, the smart ones do it sooner rather than later -- like when they're worried they might eat an inactive lynch if they don't start producing something. Of course, this is conjecture, which is why it's not what I'm basing my decision on; it's just, y'know, to show that arguments against this decision haven't been particularly meaningful so far, hm?

Re: [D6] ASB Halloween Mafia

Metallica Fanboy said:

more to the point, shock and awe, mafiosi lie about their role sometimes.

Click to expand...

I was responding specifically to Keldeo's theory that I was a mafia doctor and inspected innocent because of that. Again, I doubt there is a mafia doctor in this game, because the whole point of mafia doctors is to try to overdose important players, and there's been ample opportunity to do that and yet it still hasn't happened.

I know there's no active reason not to lynch me; I just know I'm actually a doctor.

Re: [D6] ASB Halloween Mafia

I've found it strange I've survived so late in the game as a cop. I'm inclined to believe that a screwy mafia is still kicking and has been screwing with my results.

I'm on mobile so I can't check well, but I'm going to revise the instances where the target of my investigation was decided the previous day phase. That might offer a lead.

Re: [D6] ASB Halloween Mafia

Metallica Fanboy said:

We definitely have more town clears than would be reasonable for us to have at this point, all put together. Maybe someone in the middle of the equation is a godfather! That's what godfathers are there for, after all; it's so we can't all just throw a cop at every problem.

Click to expand...

I don't know why everyone is so stuck on the idea of there being a godfather in this game. People never use godfather on tcodf without some kind of indication that it might be there, and I really don't believe that there would be one in this game. Although, now that I look back, it's Keldeo who brought this up in the first place, and you two who seem to keep talking about it, which is making me all the more suspicious. Now that I think about it, there is a much likelier possibility that SS brought up a while ago. I think you're a half-mafia role, and you're lying about whatever information you have on Keldeo to make her look innocent. And I think all this talk about a godfather is a whole lot of misdirection you're trying to pull. This theory makes a lot more sense and lines up with ILS's inspection results, so I would really like to consider it before going straight to godfather which I think is kind of a bastard role on tcodf.

Butterfree, I stopped your lynch train earlier (for now), but you never answered when I asked who you actually would like to lynch. You did say MF and Keldeo in your earlier post, and well, that seems like kind of the obvious conclusion from your viewpoint since you trust me and ILS. What do you think of the half-mafia theory?

Re: [D6] ASB Halloween Mafia

Eifie said:

Butterfree, I stopped your lynch train earlier (for now), but you never answered when I asked who you actually would like to lynch. You did say MF and Keldeo in your earlier post, and well, that seems like kind of the obvious conclusion from your viewpoint since you trust me and ILS. What do you think of the half-mafia theory?

Click to expand...

Yeah, that's mooore or less what I'm thinking at this point. Like, MF is actually a jack of all trades, but a mafia-aligned one, managed to find Keldeo with an inspection, and then 'cleared' her?

If that is the case, then Keldeo would be the actual mafia, so lynching Keldeo is probably the best bet.

(The alternative, of course, is it's you and you've been playing us all for foooools.)

Re: [D6] ASB Halloween Mafia

We're coming up on seventy-two hours and the vote is tied. ILS, please vote ASAP so we can move this along.

Re: [D6] ASB Halloween Mafia

I'm voting for Keldeo.

Re: [D6] ASB Halloween Mafia

Well, convincing someone on my wagon to vote otherwise at this point is probably a fool’s errand, haha. But it looks like I’ll probably be lynched today either way, so consider: if MF and I are the remaining mafia, why would I ask ILS to inspect Butterfree last night if I knew that SS and Butterfree would both be innocent?

Either way, good luck, everyone!

Re: [D6] ASB Halloween Mafia

Discussion is tense, as is to be expected when the stakes are so high and the group so small. There's no hiding in the midst of a crowd now; everyone has to defend themselves, make an argument for why they shouldn't be the next to go. The evidence has only gotten more confusing, and everyone's nerves are growing frayed.

No one seems particularly enthusiastic about executing Keldeo, but most are surprised by the vehemence with which Metallica Fanboy rejects the notion she could be anything but innocent. He actually has to be restrained while Keldeo's hustled away--which is a serious logistical problem, since it already takes a couple of people to keep her from escaping, and Metallica Fanboy seems absolutely dead-set on putting himself between her and her would-be executioners.

In the end I liek Squirtles manages to wrestle him to the ground long enough for the others to take care of the execution, and he offers no further resistance after that.

Keldeo is dead. She was Mafia.

When the notebook full of kill orders and is discovered in Keldeo's pocket, the townsfolk forget their earlier reservations, laughing and whooping and breathing easier at last. They forget Metallica Fanboy, too, filtering off without him to celebrate for the last half hour or so before the sun goes down. He's left alone with Keldeo's corpse, looking down morosely. From his own pocket he takes the item the other townsfolk were looking for, and which he himself was holding for safekeeping: Keldeo's gun. "No point now, is there?" he says quietly, then puts the gun to his temple. The other townsfolk wheel around at the sound of the shot, but it's too late.

Metallica Fanboy is dead. He was Town.

Seventy-two hours for night actions.

Re: [N6] ASB Halloween Mafia

Metallica Fanboy's unexpected death casts a pall over the following night. It's hard even to celebrate the demise of another mafia member when there are so few survivors--even if the town can be saved, what will be left of it? It's even quiet at night, where before footsteps would sound on the cobblestone streets even into the wee hours of the morning as townsfolk went about clandestine business. Perhaps there are still a few slipping out to take care of late-night errands, but they're lost between the ranks of empty buildings, furtive and alone.

The morning dawns bright and clear, however, and brings with it reason for optimism: only three townsfolk went to bed, but all three have returned today.

No one has died.

Seventy-two hours for discussion.

Re: [D7] ASB Halloween Mafia

Well, I redirected Butterfree to myself expecting to die and be able to tiebreak accordingly, but I guess we really have been being played this entire time... So that's how I liek Squirtles has survived so long!

Better post when I am not on my phone.

Re: [D7] ASB Halloween Mafia

Bravo, Eifie. You've played excellently, but I fear it's time for it all to end now. I inspected you last night, and you flipped mafia.

Re: [D7] ASB Halloween Mafia

Well, Butterfree has no actual evidence of her own to sway her towards either one of us — but I think it's clear that I've been playing the much stronger town game this whole time. ILS has pretty much only been posting to share his supposed investigation results and to vote. He's never actually voted for a lynch on his own (except for the SS lynch, where we asked him to flip a coin), and that's something mafia are always afraid to do because they don't want to call extra attention to themselves. Meanwhile I've been the one to initiate multiple lynches, have been one of the most active contributors to discussion, and generally have drawn a lot of attention to myself this whole game. Whose behaviour seems more mafia-like here?

More importantly, if I was mafia, why on earth would I have stopped the Butterfree train yesterday and voted for Keldeo instead?

I would love to be a devious bastard and all, but ILS is the one we've all been blindly believing. :(

Re: [D7] ASB Halloween Mafia

It's true that I've only been posting my inspection results. However, they haven't been wrong once. I'd also like to point out I claimed inspector D2 (an incredibly risky proposition) and I have never been counterclaimed once.

Eifie, you were also all too enthusiastic to lynch Butterfree yesterday.

Re: [D7] ASB Halloween Mafia

I liek Squirtles said:

It's true that I've only been posting my inspection results. However, they haven't been wrong once. I'd also like to point out I claimed inspector D2 (an incredibly risky proposition) and I have never been counterclaimed once.

Eifie, you were also all too enthusiastic to lynch Butterfree yesterday.

Click to expand...

Of course they weren't wrong, otherwise we would have lynched you. Claiming cop isn't really all that risky. If you get away with it, you get to divert doctor attention and pretty much control the entire game with your claimed results. If you get counterclaimed, now you know who the real cop is and you can kill/interfere with them easily, and the person who you're claiming is mafia suddenly looks pretty likely to be innocent. And if you happen to convince the town to lynch the counterclaimer before you, then that's a really good outcome for the mafia and probably worth giving up one mafioso, especially with what I just said about the supposedly-inspected person now looking innocent.

As for the second paragraph, I dont really know how you can say that when I was the one who stopped the Butterfree lynch after you said you'd inspected her as innocent and two others (one of whom I started a lynch on, and who did turn out to be mafia) hopped on the bandwagon anyway with what I thought was pretty contrived reasoning. You were also all too reluctant to lynch Keldeo, considering you never voted for her until prompted. In fact, you didn't even vote for her the first time you said you inspected her as mafia, either.