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Gen VI Pokéchoice Mafia - Game Thread

Re: Gen VI Pokéchoice Mafia - Game Thread

Okay, I think I have a plan, but it hinges on how ILS' town crier ability works. ILS, do you report the names of all the players who target you at night, or only one of them, if there are multiple?
 
Re: Gen VI Pokéchoice Mafia - Game Thread

Wait, uh. So MF is saying if we lynch Mai, the mafia kill someone and there are three mafia, we lose? That's... inconvenient.

Did we know there are three mafia? How did ILS get his information and when? @_@

Yeah. Sleeping on it, I wholeheartedly Do Not Support being lynched. Don't lynch me.

A preemptive abstain, but best case scenario we want to lynch someone. A mafia. We're already in a risky situation just by existing, so :V

Risk factors:
Low - if lynched and innocent, only endangerment is in the mafia kill. Really, less medium, still significant danger.
Medium - if lynched and innocent, probably not terrible.
High - if lynched and innocent, terrible. Endangers other innocents in some way.

Mai: Mega Mawile. Revives herself, but with a buffer time of (times died)-1 phases, and can confirm other alignments by being lynched. Innocent. Died N0, was in the mass deathpile, and revived self N0. Risk factor in lynching: low.
I liek Squirtles: Litleo. Town crier. Has a targeting night action. Cried that EIFIE targeted him n0, ALLIGATES n1. Risk factor in lynching: low.
Tailsy: Pumpkaboo. Supposed lover of Butterfree. Risk factor in lynching: high.
Blazhy: ??? Oracle. Risk factor in lynching: medium.
Vanilla Mongoose: Zygarde. Inspector. Risk factor in lynching: medium.
Zexion: ??? Bodyguard. Risk factor in lynching: high.
Butterfree: Mega Charizard X. Sky Drop. Risk factor in lynching: high.
Negrek: Chesnaught. Does the thing. Risk factor in lynching: medium.

Dead
Majora: Noivern. Role unknown, possibly targeting. Died N0, was in the mass deathpile. Innocent.
Eifie: Mega Houndoom. Role unknown, possibly targeting. Died N0, was in the mass deathpile. Mafia. A strange amulet was found on her corpse. Targeted ILS n0.
Wargle: Heliolisk. Role unknown. Died N0, was in the mass deathpile. Innocent.
Worst Username Ever: Klefki/Mega Gengar. Role unknown, possibly targeting. Died N0, was in the mass deathpile. Innocent.
Light: Aegislash. Unknown role, possibly targeting. Died N0, was in the mass deathpile. Innocent.
Superbird: Aromatisse. Healer with multiple side effects, of which one must be chosen every heal. Died N0, not in mass deathpile but not far from it either. Role, in conjunction with possible Captain, presumed to have caused mass deathpile. Innocent.
Alligates: Mega Kangaskhan. Copier, copied Superbird's role (signifying either that he was the first to die or the copied role was randomized or both). Innocent. Died n1.
(Note: "mass deathpile" refers to the presumable heap of Pokemon carcasses.)

I don't like how there's a bandwagon now and I'm afraid discussion won't start again. Posting this now; there's more to reply to, but I have to get ready first. Is 6:50 A.M. here. :V
 
Re: Gen VI Pokéchoice Mafia - Game Thread

also I'm going to make a suspicion list because I can:

Mai: I'm myself. I don't suspect myself.
I liek Squirtles: Hasn't talked, but wasn't online. Weird role, probably true but not necessarily innocent. Vaguely suspicious. Not opposed to lynching.
Tailsy: Very suspicious. Of course, afraid of lynching because lover claim.
Blazhy: Not very suspicious at all. Probably innocent.
Vanilla Mongoose: Vaguely suspicious. Not certain of that many inforoles. Not high on lynching bracket, though.
Zexion: ??? Suspicious. Very high likelihood of mafia, but if we lynch a legit bodyguard, we probably throw the game.
Butterfree: See Tailsy. Somehow less suspicious than Tailsy, but that's pointless.
Negrek: Very likely innocent. Helpful.

I want to hear role clarifications from ILS and Zexion. Exact, precise roles.
 
Re: Gen VI Pokéchoice Mafia - Game Thread

Just to make the list more complete, Zexion claimed Mega Heracross and I'm Aurorus.
Also I dunno, I don't suspect Tailsy /that/ much because she claimed lover-maker, and that's not a role mafia members ever get, I think. I also agree that Butterfree is somewhat suspicious but has something somewhat vouching for her innocence, but the two of them together and their info/circumstances are. Sketchy.
And if we lynch an innocent, we have a last-ditch thingy to increase chances of not being matched. Butterfree can kill someone, hopefully mafia, and put us back ahead during the day. Could be something to consider?
 
Re: Gen VI Pokéchoice Mafia - Game Thread

Oh, okay. Not that I could really argue about it being implausible, but what move gives you your oracle powers?
But she could easily become mafia??? And Metallica had mafia-recruiting roles last game: not quite the same, but. As a unit I feel like I have to trust them, though their credentials are pretty shady...

The only two people who claim to have any chance of stopping the kill are two of the most shady, though, and that disturbs me. What should our plan be if we abstain?
 
Re: Gen VI Pokéchoice Mafia - Game Thread

Nature Power.
And yeah, I'm rather reluctant to trust Butterfree's vigilante thingy, but if she's on our side (a big if) then it could save us.
I'll talk more when I get off my phone and onto the computer :P
 
Re: Gen VI Pokéchoice Mafia - Game Thread

Tailsy! What are you thinking right now? You've viewed the thread twice now, I think - pretty sure you saw it when I posted in the morning.
 
Re: Gen VI Pokéchoice Mafia - Game Thread

'Chesnaught: does the thing' is my favourite.

I've got to admit that I wasn't really certain on lynching Mai last night either, but I assumed I was just crap at numbers since everyone else seemed to be ok with it?? Abstain for now, even though I'm not sure it's likely we'll be able to really bandwagon on anyone else. I know I look pretty suspect but u__u there's not much I can do about that right now other than to assert that lynching me or Butterfree would, indeed, be terrible.

I don't think ILS is particularly suspicious. I mean, didn't his town crier ability tell us that Eifie targeted him on N0? Like I'm still a little puzzled as to how all that worked, but Eifie flipped mafia so why would she target ILS if he were in her faction? Unless he's terrorist, I guess, but.
 
Re: Gen VI Pokéchoice Mafia - Game Thread

I don't think ILS is particularly suspicious. I mean, didn't his town crier ability tell us that Eifie targeted him on N0? Like I'm still a little puzzled as to how all that worked, but Eifie flipped mafia so why would she target ILS if he were in her faction? Unless he's terrorist, I guess, but.

I think at this point I have my reasons, but I'd rather wait for him to come in and elaborate before saying more.

Who do you suspect, then?
 
Re: Gen VI Pokéchoice Mafia - Game Thread

You know, I'm not actually sure if Zexion being bodyguard would actually help us at this point. I mean, either way a death still happens and we'll still be matched (if we lynch an innocent, I mean). So lynching Zexion anyway might be a good idea.

It's really too bad we can't do the thing, extra day time and an extra lynch opportunity would be great... but alas.
 
Re: Gen VI Pokéchoice Mafia - Game Thread

Fair enough! He has been very quiet, although I don't think he has been online recently so. Personally I'm more inclined to be suspicious of Zexion in particular, and VM somewhat too, although these are just hunches more than anything due to their roleclaims being fairly easy ones for mafia members to fake, especially at this point in the game where there's not that many people left to go 'hey, that's my role!' or whatever. Although Metallica does seem to like a lot of inforoles so maybe that's not as much of an issue?
 
Re: Gen VI Pokéchoice Mafia - Game Thread

Yeah, abstain for now. If we lynch wrong, we quite possibly lose. If we abstain, then we should be able to figure out the mafia pretty conclusively if we cross-inspect everyone correctly.

blazhy asks if I am inspector
I inspect... maybe Tailsy or Zexion?
Zexion protects me
Butterfree jails ILS and we can see if his crier ability takes effect
Mai targets... well it doesn't really matter
ILS, Negrek and Tailsy don't really do anything
Mafia kill each other and/or turn yourselves in

Sounds okay?
 
Re: Gen VI Pokéchoice Mafia - Game Thread

Yeah, abstain for now. If we lynch wrong, we quite possibly lose. If we abstain, then we should be able to figure out the mafia pretty conclusively if we cross-inspect everyone correctly.

blazhy asks if I am inspector
I inspect... maybe Tailsy or Zexion?
Zexion protects me
Butterfree jails ILS and we can see if his crier ability takes effect
Mai targets... well it doesn't really matter
ILS, Negrek and Tailsy don't really do anything
Mafia kill each other and/or turn yourselves in

Sounds okay?
Possible problem: that's a roleblock, so crying wouldn't happen???
 
Re: Gen VI Pokéchoice Mafia - Game Thread

Switching to abstain since the consensus seems to be things might get Bad if we lynch Mai. (Too bad! I liked that plan.)

(My ability is actually technically Tough Claws, not Sky Drop, though the latter would really fit better.)

Negrek, what was your idea exactly? Is ILS even around? (Maybe somebody should PM him?)

Personally, based purely on gut feelings about their behaviour in the thread (well, more on gut feelings about everyone else's behaviour in the thread, really), I'm most suspicious of Zexion, VM and ILS, in that order, but gut feelings aren't exactly much to go on.

My action would probably block ILS, yeah - my role PM describes it specifically as blocking both actions targeting that player and blocking them from using night actions themselves, not just blocking them from targeting anyone else.
 
Re: Gen VI Pokéchoice Mafia - Game Thread

Possible problem: that's a roleblock, so crying wouldn't happen???
Isn't crying a passive action though? I mean, if Butterfree both blocks actions targeting that player and blocks them from using night actions themselves, then wouldn't the action still happen because ILS isn't using a night action?

Even so, Mai could target ILS while he is being jailed by Butterfree.

"Butterfree and Mai are following me" --> Butterfree is lying
"Mai is following me" --> Butterfree is lying
"Butterfree is following me" --> Butterfree is telling the truth
No message --> Butterfree is telling the truth/ILS is lying
 
Re: Gen VI Pokéchoice Mafia - Game Thread

Well, first of all I do think we should abstain for now, given the apparent chance for us to insta-lose if the mafia succeed in making a kill during the next night. Honestly, though, unless we can come up with a solid plan of action for the night phase, I think ultimately it might be best to just chance it; we are guaranteed to get some good information from that course of action, the mafia are not guaranteed to make a kill, and there's always the possibility of MF's faction-WTFery coming into play. On the other hand, if we have no solid plan proceeding into tonight, the fact that there's no chance of us losing doesn't mean much, because we aren't really doing anything to increase our chance of winning

Anyway, if we abstain, I think we should run night actions like this:

Vanilla Mongoose inspects ILS
Zexion defends ILS
blazheirio889 oracles a question that will reveal ILS' alingment ("Is the player who claimed litleo mafia," or similar)
Butterfree sky drops (or whatever) Tailsy

Our problem is that we have two potential inforoles but no indication whether they're reliable. This configuration of actions, which hinges upon ILS' town crier ability (it will be dramatically more chancy if he only shouts about one of the people targeting him, rather than all), will provide solid information about at least two people under a variety of different potential mafia/innocent configurations, as detailed below. Under this setup, assuming at most one of the four players involved is mafia we can say that:

- If ILS dies, Zexion is mafia. This indicates that either Zexion is not bodyguard or he isn't working with the town: at this point this is as good as a mafia claim to me.

- If ILS does not report Zexion targeting him, Zexion is mafia. Likewise, even if ILS survives because the mafia offs somebody else but Zexion is not working with us or being honest about his role, he should be lynched.

- If ILS does not report VM targeting him, VM is mafia. Same reasons.

- If ILS is able to report VM's target and does not die, VM is innocent inspector. In this case we can assume VM's innocence and the results of his inspections accurate.

- blazheirio889's report does nothing to confirm her own role, but ensures that the mafia can't cover ILS' alignment simply by killing VM. I'm actually not sure about including blazheirio889 in here anymore, but I already typed out all the two-mafia interactions so I'm not about to go removing her from the list now. But yeah, basically this. I feel like there's something I'm forgetting about that explains why I mixed her in here in the first place, but if so, then I... forgot.

Things get hairier if we start assuming more than one mafia among the group. If there are at most two mafia players among these four:

- If VM and Zexion are mafia, we will know at least one of them is such. They're not going to be able to make this work without not targeting ILS, whether because they can't afford to kill him with their targeting and implicate Zexion or not target him at all and implicate them both.

- If ILS and Zexion are mafia, we will know at least ILS' alignment. They can only kill one of blazheirio889 and VM, and those two should both report mafia for ILS.

- If VM and blazheirio889 are mafia, we will gain no new information. Depending on how ILS' ability works, VM can target him and end up killing Zexion, then he and blazheirio889 both lie about their results. This looks identical to a mafia kill coming from somewhere else among the player base and so does nothing to improve our understanding of the situation.

- If Zexion and blazheirio889 are mafia, we will know at least Zexion's role. Again, Zexion can't act without killing ILS or not targeting ILS, either of which will implicate him.

- If Zexion and VM are mafia, then we will know at least Zexion's role. Same as above.

- If ILS and blazheirio889 are mafia, we will probably be misled. In this scenario the mafia is likely to kill VM, with blazheirio889 stating ILS' innocence. We get actively bad information here.

- If ILS and VM are mafia, we may also be misled, depending on how ILS' ability works. The way messages have been popping up, I'd be surprised if ILS is choosing what to broadcast. If he can mislead through these messages, then this scenario is as bad as ILS/blazheirio889 mafia, with the same outcome. If all he can do is turn his ability on/off at will, he'd have to turn it off here, which would implicate both Zexion and VM as mafia, as per the list above. In this case we are guaranteed good information (VM is mafia) and may also receive bad information (Zexion is mafia; he may or may not be). If he can't control the messages, he can't help but implicate VM when it becomes clear that VM hasn't targeted him.

I haven't worked through what would happen if three out of four of them are mafia, but I don't think it would be pretty. Whether we should do this or not therefore depends on how many mafia we think are remaining and how we think they're likely to be distributed among the remaining players. If you think it's most likely that three of blazheirio889, ILS, VM, and Zexion are mafia, then this is not an attractive option. I think Butterfree juuuust said that, but personally I'm betting that this is not the case. If you think at most two of those four are mafia, then this is the most solid course of action I've been able to come up with.

Obviously, some unknown mafia targeting role that has no visible effect could cause this all to go sideways, but I don't think we could come up with a plan that doesn't have that weakness anyway.

I feel like there must be a somewhat more optimal way to work blazheirio889 into the mix, but I haven't seen it yet. Of course, alternative proposals or critiques are welcome.
 
Re: Gen VI Pokéchoice Mafia - Game Thread

So I'm body-guarding ILS tonight? Won't that leave VM open for attack by the Mafia? I'm willing to body-guard ILS tonight, just pointing that out.

Also, abstaining for today.
 
Re: Gen VI Pokéchoice Mafia - Game Thread

Isn't crying a passive action though? I mean, if Butterfree both blocks actions targeting that player and blocks them from using night actions themselves, then wouldn't the action still happen because ILS isn't using a night action?

Even so, Mai could target ILS while he is being jailed by Butterfree.

"Butterfree and Mai are following me" --> Butterfree is lying
"Mai is following me" --> Butterfree is lying
"Butterfree is following me" --> Butterfree is telling the truth
No message --> Butterfree is telling the truth/ILS is lying

Passive, yeah, but it might still be blocked? It depends on how it's being flavored. I remember some roleblockers basically turning their targets into vanilla townies for the night; I think that happens in #tcod.

Well, first of all I do think we should abstain for now, given the apparent chance for us to insta-lose if the mafia succeed in making a kill during the next night. Honestly, though, unless we can come up with a solid plan of action for the night phase, I think ultimately it might be best to just chance it; we are guaranteed to get some good information from that course of action, the mafia are not guaranteed to make a kill, and there's always the possibility of MF's faction-WTFery coming into play. On the other hand, if we have no solid plan proceeding into tonight, the fact that there's no chance of us losing doesn't mean much, because we aren't really doing anything to increase our chance of winning

I feel like there must be a somewhat more optimal way to work blazheirio889 into the mix, but I haven't seen it yet. Of course, alternative proposals or critiques are welcome.
Also, we might even want to take a guess and lynch if we have time :V It's likely to be three mafia and only three mafia (still waiting on ILS for that one, though), so 3/8 chance of lynching a mafia; if you subtract Negrek and I, since I'd like to believe that's not on the table anymore (it'd be a lot easier for Negrek to just not if neg was mafia, for example), that's 3/5. Not bad at all, but.

If Butterfree is mafia and uses tough claws, what's the worst case scenario? It'd be hard to believe that they have two kills and haven't used both of them, so it'd probably be a don action, but a roleblock could throw a wrench in this.

Metallica, do you normally allow inforoles to be roleblocked?

And that answer to that is yes, Zexion, I suppose. Since we can't protect everyone, and I can't come up with any better plan.
 
Re: Gen VI Pokéchoice Mafia - Game Thread

Metallica, do you normally allow inforoles to be roleblocked?
... I don't feel like doing the thing where I answer through members of Metallica, but, so as long as they go about obtaining their information through active night actions, they can be roleblocked.
 
Re: Gen VI Pokéchoice Mafia - Game Thread

I haven't read through everything carefully and considered it all yet, but what if VM and Zexion are mafia, both have targeted actions, but neither of them are the don? Or for any scenario where we rely on deaths to implicate people, what if person whoever is mafia but isn't don? (not sure if the second statement holds for other scenarios, but I decided just to make it a blanket statement instead of looking through everything and all)

Changing to abstain.
 
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