Barubu vs. ole_schooler

Metallica Fanboy said:

Also, these statistics don't add up -- the chance of a 2% roll being successful in n tries remains 2%. Not to mention, previous results don't affect the current chance -- there's only a 1 in 1296 of rolling a certain number in a six-faced dice four times in a row, but if you roll a certain number three times, the chance of rolling it a fourth time isn't 1 in 1296, it's 1 in 6.

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Mmm, yes, you're correct in that the chance of there being an eraser attack next round is still only 2%. But what ole_schooler says is true: the chance of there being no eraser attack after twelve rounds is .98 ^ 12, or 78%--thus, a 22% chance of at least one occurring.

Metallica Fanboy said:

Surprising that you brought that up, because I'd been forgetting to roll for a long time now, but I remembered last round and made compensatory rolls. Not a single one hit the mark, though.

Also, these statistics don't add up -- the chance of a 2% roll being successful in n tries remains 2%. Not to mention, previous results don't affect the current chance -- there's only a 1 in 1296 of rolling a certain number in a six-faced dice four times in a row, but if you roll a certain number three times, the chance of rolling it a fourth time isn't 1 in 1296, it's 1 in 6.

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Heh, I was wondering if you forgot. :D

And you're right, the odds don't increase for subsequent rounds, but the odds of not rolling within that 2% over twelve rounds are (98/100)^12, which is roughly 78%. To use your die example, the odds of rolling sixes four times in a row is 1/1296, but the odds of rolling no sixes is (5/6)^4, which is 625/1296, or roughly 48%. Therefore, the odds of rolling at least one six in four rolls is 52%.

Edit: Well derp didn't see Negrek's post.

Well, much as the arguments over probability could help me salvage my terrible math grades this bimester (although I usually nail probability-related questions and screw up on most of the rest), dwelling upon it much farther would make me fail to focus on the reffing, which I thereby present without further ado (and with no eraser attacks just yet).

2v2 Single
Style: Set
DQ: 7 days
Damage Cap: 30%
Banned Moves: OHKO's, only 5 Chills/Pokemon

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Arena: The School's yard

A relatively large field, used to train Erasers to take down and rip apart their prey. The arena is about 1/4 the length of a football field. Seeing as Erasers are mean and evil, there's a 2% chance of one attacking your pokémon and taking 5% damage.

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Arena status: Unchanged.


Tomas reached for reserves of Water-type energy within his body to perform his next commands. Wiggling wildly, sending sparks everywhere in the process, he scattered that energy, filling the air up with it until it started to gather stormclouds. Visible shadows spread over the field, and water began to fall on its grounds.

Charles cursed silently as the drops ran over his feathers. It was bad enough that he could hardly control his muscles; now he was going to have to deal with weighed feathers as well? Reaching his enemy was a terrible journey, but once he got there, he set all of his anger free in a vicious bout of attacks.

Amidst the powerful rampage, the Electrike got quite startled and attempted to counterattack in order to gain some space. He gathered electricity as well as he could and shot a signal into the clouds right above him, causing one to blast a fierce lightning bolt... Into the ground right next to the Pidgey. A moving target is, after all, the most difficult to hit.

After a series of outrage, however, the bird Pokémon's situation caught up with him, as a major, widespread cramp forced him to stop moving completely and even collapse. The bird was, then, a sitting duck. His opponent had much less trouble aiming and managed to arrange for the fury of thunder to blast him right through the chest. The powerful voltage coursing through him stiffened all his muscles, but by the same token, allowed them to briefly restore movement, giving the paralyzed Pokémon time for another round of violent vindication before his systems began malfunctioning again. By the time he was done, Tomas was covered in cuts and bruises, and surrounded by a red aura.


Arena status: Rain is falling (that might be 6 actions more, or 12; I'll check my previous reffing records as soon as I can actually use the computer they're in). There's a tiny burnt range on the ground near where the battlers are.

Additional notes:
- Thunder in the rain still can miss, should it need to be stated. Rain Dance bumps the accuracy up to 100%, but it still can be lowered from there, and Blue-Eyed Blind has just that effect.
- Tomas hit the damage cap at the third action.
- My physics grades are also doing terribly; perhaps there's nitpicking that could be done with that part of the reffing?
- ole_schooler attacks first next round.

Looks like that Pidgey just got *puts on sunglasses* Thunder-struck. (Bad puns aside, I did know there was a chance for Tomas to miss with Thunder. It's just his chance to miss now is roughly what a normal miss chance for Thunder would be, and significantly better than if he'd been using Thunder without the power of rain.)

Alrighy, then. Thunder until you get a hit, then swap to Shock Wave. If the weather changes, also swap to Shock Wave. If the bird (somehow) gets into the air via Fly or Protects or something, Charge and wait for that to end.

Thunder/Shock Wave/Charge~Thunder/Shock Wave/Charge~Thunder/Shock Wave/Charge

FACADE

Facade~Facade~Facade

2v2 Single
Style: Set
DQ: 7 days
Damage Cap: 30%
Banned Moves: OHKO's, only 5 Chills/Pokemon

Click to expand...

Arena: The School's yard

A relatively large field, used to train Erasers to take down and rip apart their prey. The arena is about 1/4 the length of a football field. Seeing as Erasers are mean and evil, there's a 2% chance of one attacking your pokémon and taking 5% damage.

Click to expand...

Arena status: Unchanged.


The two Pokémon eyed each other (well, one eyed, the other just vaguely faced) with sheer violence in their expressions as the fourteenth round of the battle began.

Wasting no time, Tomas emitted another signal into the clouds, arranging for thunder to fry his opponent before anything else could be done. A risky move, and that went dangerous close to missing, but it paid off, as the Pidgey's struggle to move worsened with the prompt strike.

Once Charles finally managed to drag himself all the way towards his foe for what felt like the tenth time, he spread his wings and let out a high-pitched cry, pumping up for another series of reckless rushing. The brutal attacks once more made it difficult for the Electrike to do anything, specially because they were exceptionally restless that time, but he managed to gain a bit room to breathe at two points, by quickly pumping out an electric pulse -- minor, compared to the best he could muster, but enough.

By the end of the round, the battlers were very visibly battered, and also surrounded by red auras. They both seemed very weakened, but not any less able to keep on fighting.


Arena status: Rain is falling (3 more actions). There's a tiny burnt range on the ground near where the battlers are.

Additional notes:
- Charles hit the damage cap at the second action, and so did Tomas.
- Barubu attacks first next round.

AGAIN!

Facade~Facade~Facade

I see how it is. Gonna just Facade till we fall asleep, is that it? Well, Tomas, you know what they say: give the people what they want. Shock Wave every action until you get hit. Once the Pidgey manages to break through it's paralysis, take a nap and Rest. If you have a spare action asleep, Sleep Talk just for giggles.

Shock Wave~Shock Wave/Rest~Shock Wave/Rest/Sleep Talk

2v2 Single
Style: Set
DQ: 7 days
Damage Cap: 30%
Banned Moves: OHKO's, only 5 Chills/Pokemon

Click to expand...

Arena: The School's yard

A relatively large field, used to train Erasers to take down and rip apart their prey. The arena is about 1/4 the length of a football field. Seeing as Erasers are mean and evil, there's a 2% chance of one attacking your pokémon and taking 5% damage.

Click to expand...

Arena status: Rain is falling (3 more actions). There's a tiny burnt range on the ground near where the battlers are.


The rain pouring upon the two battlers weighed down their already tired limbs, but as they realized that the battle was soon to end, their focus became stronger.

Tomas hardly let his opponent move before pumping out another widespread wave of voltage, leaving no room for escape. With this sudden start, Charles was completely outpaced and, try as he might, his fury could not trump his terrible cramps.

With a couple of sniffs, the blind Electrike noted his enemy's lack of movement and proceeded to take a swipe at the air, letting another electric blast rip. The battered and paralyzed Pidgey had no way to evade it as the attack struck and fried his insides for the last time he could take it.

Still completely stiff, the bird Pokémon dropped to the ground.

It took a few seconds for it to kick in, but, the results were in. After a long-stalled initial draw, a mock apocalypse and a lightning finish (in more than one way), the canines won.

And speaking of canines, the trainers might have lucked out, evading the Erasers' detection for the entire duration of the battle, but, as steps could be heard more and more, the three decided to clear the place as soon as possible, and discuss prizes later.


Arena status: The rain has settled down, but there are puddles all over. There's a tiny burnt range on the ground near where the battlers are.

And that's all, folks. This is what we get for all this:
- Barubu gets $6.
- ole_schooler gets $16.
- I get $10.
- Kaemelotte is awarded 2 EXP.
- Charles is awarded 1 EXP.
- Sabriel is awarded 1 EXP.
- Tomas is awarded 2 EXP.

So hey, anybody feel like discussing probability?

Good game Ole Schooler. And thanks for reffing, Metallica.

Great match, Barubu. And Metalica, thanks, as well, for reffing all this. It's been a year and 28 days, but it's done! (And I like probability.)