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[TOWN WINS] ASB Halloween Mafia

Re: [D5] ASB Halloween Mafia

In any case, we'd better have a plan in place for what happens after we lynch. If we lynch a doctor and they're mafia, then the other two doctors could split two targets (ILS should be one). If we're between lynching me and Butterfree, and we lynch correctly, then I think ILS should inspect Keldeo, and we'd have our final answer.

If we lynch between me or Butterfree and we're wrong, then ILS could inspect the other, and the remaining "doctors" could both target ILS, since one of those remaining would be lying.
 
Re: [D5] ASB Halloween Mafia

You healed who on N2?
ILS. I thought I'd mentioned it somewhere in the middle of all my babble but I guess I didn't, whoops.

I'm reading this as unable to switch themselves away to someone else, for possible cop inspection, unless this is a lie.
Hmmmm. On the one hand I don't see the point of Ghzoom going to the bother of briging that up if he's scum, least of all if it's false. On the other hand, bringing this up doesn't benefit the bussing at all, but it would be useful if Sandstone-Shadow is either innocent or Ghzoom's scumbuddy, and Ghzoom would have to be scum on either possibility. Hmm!

That's a whole lot of conjecture, though, and I do agree that it's more important to lynch scum that's right in front of us -- and it must be somewhere between the three entire people claiming doctor.

As for what we do in the aftermath, I do think it's most reasonable to put Keldeo up to healing ILS. Consider that, if ILS does turn up dead anyway, we'd know exactly who to lynch -- that's exactly as good as one copping, if you're asking me.

I'm just not 100% convinced that MF is telling the truth - his posts so far have been very eloquent/boastful in a way that could be a cover up
Eloquent? I'm not sure you're reading the same posts as the ones I'm writing. (I'll take "boastful" though, making Tucker your avatar does Things to your psyche)
 
Re: [D5] ASB Halloween Mafia

Can a jack of all trades be a mafia-aligned role? I believe MF is the first person to claim Keldeo flipped town, right? Or did I forget about something that happened earlier?
Ah, and I also forgot to pick up on this one, but no, mafia-aligned jack-of-all-trades is not a role I've ever seen in my life. ... Guess it's a thought for when I'm doing MFia again, eh? But in any case it'd have to be a modified version, since half of a standard jack-of-all-trades's setup is completely useless to mafia. (they already have night kills, and they already know the alignments of everyone but maybe a third-party player or another, and those don't always inspect as third-party anyway)
 
Re: [D5] ASB Halloween Mafia

Ah, and I also forgot to pick up on this one, but no, mafia-aligned jack-of-all-trades is not a role I've ever seen in my life. ... Guess it's a thought for when I'm doing MFia again, eh? But in any case it'd have to be a modified version, since half of a standard jack-of-all-trades's setup is completely useless to mafia. (they already have night kills, and they already know the alignments of everyone but maybe a third-party player or another, and those don't always inspect as third-party anyway)

Not that I don't believe you, but it would work in your favor to claim that your role is never aligned with mafia! That does seem reasonable. Though, your actions don't necessarily have to serve the mafia directly - third-parties don't actually know who's mafia, so inspector could still serve a purpose for the third-partier, and the vigilante kill, well, that'd just be an extra kill for the mafia.
 
Re: [D5] ASB Halloween Mafia

So, we are a bit more than halfway through the day phase. Can we agree on someone to lynch, so we can start planning what to do at night? If we do want to choose between SS and Butterfree and have no reason to pick one over the other, maybe we could have ILS flip a coin, since I think we can all agree that he's the most trustworthy.
 
Re: [D5] ASB Halloween Mafia

(Sorry for not being as active today as I'd hoped, I've been out of the house almost the whole day.) I agree that trying to intentionally cause an overdose, especially on someone who investigated innocent, is a little too risky at this point in the game since our numbers are so low, so I think the best course of action for tonight is something along the lines of what SS mentioned at the top of the page.

Let's call our three claimed doctors 1, 2, and 3, where 1 is the most trustworthy (given ILS and MF's results, I think that's me?) and 3 is the least trustworthy. We know that either one or two people out of the three are telling the truth. Today, we lynch 3, since they're the most suspicious and that's most likely a 50/50 chance of rooting out another mafia. If 3 is mafia, that implies 2 is innocent, but not necessarily, because it's not out of the realm of possibility that there's only one doctor in this game, I think. Meanwhile, if 3 is innocent, that implies 2 is mafia. Because tomorrow we can't afford to let a mafia skate by because they're likely innocent or, conversely, to mislynch an innocent because they're likely mafia, ILS investigates 2 to make absolutely sure of their alignment, at no risk to him because 1 will heal him and 2 will heal 1. ILS and 1 are the biggest mafia targets no matter what alignment 3 is, I think, so this is the best use of the doctor(s) tonight. And if ILS turns up dead, that implicates 1, and if 1 turns up dead, that implicates 2, meaning that we have a solidly mafia lynch target for tomorrow even if ILS dies and can't reveal 2's alignment. Then, once we know who died and/or ILS's results tomorrow, we can use process of elimination again with and go from there. So tl;dr, we lynch 3, and tonight, 1 targets ILS, 2 targets 1, and ILS targets 1 if 3 is mafia and 2 if 3 isn't mafia.

What does everyone think of this plan? As mentioned, I think I would be 1 so I'll heal ILS tonight if we go with this plan, but... I'm not actually sure whether 3 in this situation would be Butterfree or SS. Before SS's claim, I would think it would be Butterfree like I talked about earlier... but Butterfree's right that SS claiming a second doctor is a pretty low-risk action to take without knowing my role, and I'm also seeing both some town-seeming and some mafia-seeming elements, or little things that could be construed as either (which probably means I'm probably going to overthink it) in both of their posts so far today? So I'm not really sure what to think. I honestly wouldn't be opposed to having ILS decide randomly like Eifie said, since I'm really unsure who to suspect at this point, but we do need to do something.
 
Re: [D5] ASB Halloween Mafia

Okay, in the absence of any other posts today: ILS, can you flip a coin and vote for one of SS and Butterfree?
 
Re: [D5] ASB Halloween Mafia

ILS flipping a coin sounds good to me.
 
Re: [D5] ASB Halloween Mafia

Twenty-four hour extension for the day phase. If there's no vote after twenty-four hours, there will be no lynch.
 
Re: [D5] ASB Halloween Mafia

Sorry for not posting much. I've never beem super good at analyzing mafia games. In fact, the most I can come up with right now is 'what if the mafia was all doctors' :P

Anyways, after rereading the thread, my vote is for Sandstone-Shadow. Sorry :(
 
Re: [D5] ASB Halloween Mafia

Sandstone-Shadow. Sorry, apprentice :C

Okay, I don't have time to reread the thread, but I think the plan for the night was something like:
  • Butterfree: heal ILS
  • Keldeo: heal ILS
  • ILS: inspect Butterfree
  • me: nothing?
  • Gzhoom: nothing?
  • MF: nothing?
 
Re: [D5] ASB Halloween Mafia

Okay, Sandstone-Shadow.

The plan I'm going to go with is, if she's mafia:
- I heal ILS
- Butterfree heals me
- ILS inspects me

and if she's innocent:
- I heal ILS
- Butterfree heals me
- ILS inspects Butterfree
 
Re: [D5] ASB Halloween Mafia

Farewell, Sandstone-Shadow! May you be a better mafiosa or a luckier townie next time.

If she does turn up mafia, I'll go ahead and use my block on Ghzoom, as this would prevent a kill if he's mafia, or aid the process of elimination further if he isn't. If Sandstone-Shadow turns up innocent, though, no point in using my block yet, as that'll only be a 50-50 chance of successfully blocking mafia even if I have an appropriate target.
 
Re: [D5] ASB Halloween Mafia

Sandstone-Shadow, then. Confirming that I'll heal Keldeo tonight.
 
Re: [D5] ASB Halloween Mafia

It comes down to a coin flip. There are too many suspects, too little evidence--or maybe too much clever manipulation. In the end, the town can't choose, but they know they have to act.

One person is chosen to make their decision. They watch the coin in the air, eager but apprehensive to see which way it lands. Then they have their suspect, and now, at last, they can find out the truth.

They chose wrong.

Sandstone-Shadow is dead. She was Town.

Seventy-two hours for night actions.
 
Re: [N5] ASB Halloween Mafia

It's a very small, demoralized group of townspeople who gathers the next morning in ASB Central. No one has to go looking for a corpse; they can see immediately who's missing.

There's hardly anyone left. Who here is grieving, and who's doing their best to hide a triumphant grin?

How many mafia, and how many townsfolk? One thing is clear: there can't be much time left to prevent the crime syndicate from taking over all of ASB.

Gzhoom is dead. He was Town.

Seventy-two hours for discussion.
 
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