[TOWN WINS] ASB Halloween Mafia

Re: [D5] ASB Halloween Mafia

Keldeo said:

First off, I know I'm town. (I know that ZM said this and ended up being a third party, but I actually do think that my role would be better kept from the mafia at this point in the game, and it wouldn't help town as much as it would hurt to have out in the open, I think. I can claim if it's necessary; like I said, I don't have any more exams from here on out, so I'll be more attentive to what's going on in the thread.)

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I think you should claim. We're on day 5 and have lynched only one actual mafia-flipping mafia, and we have two claimed protective roles and a cop. At this point, since more than one of us thinks you might be a worthwhile lynch, I think the benefit of having all the information out there to properly inform a lynch today outweighs whatever drawbacks there might be to giving the mafia that information. Everyone else: what do you think?

(Comments on the rest later. Can you write my 15-page report for me?)

Re: [D5] ASB Halloween Mafia

Keldeo said:

With regard to SS, I want to read her as town, she's been posting a lot and comes across as pretty genuine, but there's also a little off-seeming thing to her behavior? Like, the fact that she's been consistently asking questions about fairly basic mafia stuff like whether we can abstain, whether roles are revealed upon death, and what a Pokemon alignment is would make me read her as town and just new to mafia... but it's almost a "lady doth protest too much" situation. While some of those questions did reveal information, e.g. this, I feel like the questions and the working out her reasoning in posts miiight just as easily be a coached thing, where hypothetical mafia-SS's mafia partners told her to post gamestate-related questions or basic deductions that make her seem active and newbie but don't actually give us any information. And in the past few days, she's been echoing Eifie (and, to an extent, me) a lot. While this hasn't been all of her content, which would be a lot more suspicious, it's justifiable but also could just be another way to get on town's good side. (What I'm talking about: following me, Eifie, Eifie.) I feel like I might also be falling into the trap here of being too skeptical/paranoid of new players, so in the end I just pretty much don't have a read on her. Her behavior could stem from a town mindset, or it could stem from a mafia mindset - I don't know.

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A bit of explanation on this: I've been posting a lot of questions/clarifications in this game because while I'm not new to mafia, this is my first time playing on these forums, and there's a lot of detail mechanics that I'm not used to. I've never played with a lot of these roles (especially Pokemon) and I'm used to finding out people's specific roles, not just alignment, when they die (this has rendered obsolete a lot of my usual mafia logic strategies), so a lot of my posts have been me trying to puzzle out what's going on. It's true that some of my posts have been echoes of Eifie/you/others, but that's because I'm rephrasing to make sure I understand (and hoping someone will correct me if I understood wrong). It's been a lot of Eifie's posts because, like you said, she's got a pretty solid claim (so I trust her) and she's pretty active, so there's usually something for me to respond to from her.

Eifie said:

I think you should claim. We're on day 5 and have lynched only one actual mafia-flipping mafia, and we have two claimed protective roles and a cop. At this point, since more than one of us thinks you might be a worthwhile lynch, I think the benefit of having all the information out there to properly inform a lynch today outweighs whatever drawbacks there might be to giving the mafia that information. Everyone else: what do you think?

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I've been trying to hide my role, but by this logic, I should claim too.

I am also a doctor. This is why some of my questions were so specific and probably odd-sounding; if things panned out a certain way, I would have had the ability to call someone out. I was particularly interested in this:

Sandstone-Shadow said:

Gzhoom goes first:
ILS -> RedneckPhoenix -(Gzhoom switches me and ILS)> my potential target -(Eifie redirects me to Cynder)> my potential target
Me -> my potential target -(Gzhoom switches me and ILS)> RedneckPhoenix -(Eifie redirects me to Cynder)> Cynder

Eifie goes first:
ILS -> RedneckPhoenix -(Eifie redirects me to Cynder)> RedneckPhoenix -(Gzhoom switches me and ILS)> Cynder
Me -> my potential target -(Eifie redirects me to Cynder)> Cynder -(Gzhoom switches me and ILS)> RedneckPhoenix

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This was from N2, and RedneckPhoenix died that night. So if my second scenario was correct, then I actually healed RedneckPhoenix N2, he shouldn't have died, and Gzhoom was lying. However, it seems like my analysis of how those roles interacted was wrong anyway, meaning this didn't prove anything, and I kept quiet about my role.

My targets so far:
N0: Eifie
N1: Keldeo
N2: Eifie (back to her after the redirector claim - I thought that might be a prime target, especially with the systematic way she was using it, and how vocal she's been at trying to figure out the situation)
N3: ILS (conversation changed my mind and made it sound like he'd be the more important mafia kill)
N4: Gzhoom (would've gone for ILS again, but decided to trust Butterfree and didn't want to overdose ILS)

The most interesting thing to me is why Butterfree didn't try to heal ILS on N3. I probably should have healed him on N2, to be honest, and luckily that's turned out okay. It looks like she claims she didn't because of all the switching going on, which could honestly be a logical explanation. I think some of my heals got redirected (N2 and N3, I think), so maybe I should have targeted quieter players in the hopes of getting switched with one of the important roleclaims. I just cut right to the chase, I guess, and hoped I wouldn't get switched.

Keldeo said:

Finally, Butterfree... I really don't know. Up until her claim, she seemed kind of suspicious to me. She's been quite inactive, and all of the posts that she did make would've been really easy for a mafia in her position to make imo, because it was pretty much entirely bandwagoning - she's been on literally every single wagon except ZM's, iirc, and including mine when I was being suspected of being mafia.

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This could be a mafia sign - even if she knows someone who's being voted upon is mafia, her one vote is probably not going to change the tide, and it might be better for her to appear innocent by voting with the town, rather than sticking up for someone.

Keldeo said:

I think she's usually at least a bit more active in terms of at least commenting on things if not offering any new information? So the fact that she just hadn't really been doing anything stuck out to me. And then there's her roleclaim post, which made my estimation of her as town increase a lot - it's definitely plausible, and her claim makes for a good reason to lay low. Except claiming a conveniently ineffectual doctor, while leaving the door open for any potential second doctor not to counterclaim, might also be fairly easy for mafia to say, and it practically ensures that Butterfree wouldn't be lynched if we believed her claim because we need a doctor to protect ILS. All they had to do last night was just not kill anyone, and then Butterfree could claim that it was because of her action, establishing her as a trusted figure.

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I agree with this, and I'm hesitant too. If she was telling the truth, then mafia would likely not have targeted ILS last night (why waste a kill), which means they've got 4 targets left, assuming 2 mafia are left. Wouldn't mafia go for Butterfree, if they knew ILS was protected? Gzhoom and Eifie didn't do any switching, so there was nothing to stop mafia from targeting Butterfree.

The other possibility is mafia targeted Gzhoom last night, and my heal saved him. But honestly, if Butterfree is actually a doctor, I'm not sure why mafia wouldn't have killed her last night.

I'm most suspicious of Butterfree right now, so I'm curious to see what she'll say. I'm also now curious what Keldeo's claim/response will be.

Re: [D5] ASB Halloween Mafia

Okay, 2 things.

1. I completely forgot Butterfree’s suggestion for my action last night. I can understand how this, paired with my lack of action the night before, seems fishy. However, I’m Town, and despite my poor memory, I’m happy to help out however I can during night actions.

2. A lot of this stuff is way over my head. A few of you have clearly played a lot of these types of games before, and all of these in-depth analyses usually leave me with not a lot to add.

Sorry for screwing up that momentum we had going, guys. Anything I can do I’ll be happy to!

Re: [D5] ASB Halloween Mafia

Okay, wow, this is a mess. I am also also a doctor, I thought I'd be able to just keep healing from the shadows and not get myself killed given Butterfree's claim, but unless Negrek is trying to run some sort of "everyone redirects and overdoses each other" game, at least one of us is lying.

My targets so far have been:
n0: Kratos - basically just going for a player who usually contributes.
n1: MF - at this point I think I'd thought the mafia were going after established players, so I was pretty surprised when Stryke died.
n2: ZM - and then I guessed they were going after inactives, but no dice.
n3: Butterfree - ironically, I was trying to do the same thing she said she did, going for an inactive to make sure ILS didn't die.
n4: Eifie - I was really out of it when I sent this action, but Eifie led the ZM lynch and was pretty much my only solid townread at that point besides ILS (Butterfree already said she was going to target ILS, and I didn't want to overdose him if Butterfree was telling the truth.)

Ugh. I'm really not sure what to think any more. Obviously, we each know that we're telling the truth (or lying), but in the absence of any direct evidence, any of us could be the fake doctor(s)... Does anyone besides me, SS, and Butterfree have anything to add that won't just confuse this situation more? Butterfree, who did you target last night?

Re: [D5] ASB Halloween Mafia

...when you said it was better if the mafia didn't know, I kinda wondered if you would be claiming doctor. Oh boy.

Re: [D5] ASB Halloween Mafia

I healed ILS, like I said I would.

Sandstone-Shadow said:

The most interesting thing to me is why Butterfree didn't try to heal ILS on N3. I probably should have healed him on N2, to be honest, and luckily that's turned out okay. It looks like she claims she didn't because of all the switching going on, which could honestly be a logical explanation.

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No; I didn't heal him because I was concerned there might be another hidden doctor who'd be healing him, so if I did too he might overdose. I stated this in my roleclaim post, and if you're telling the truth, it was exactly the right choice! I did heal ILS last night because I'd posted in the thread that I would, and I hoped any hidden doctors would therefore avoid him.

Three doctors does sound fairly unlikely, especially with a bunch of redirecting going on as well, and personally, I'm most suspicious of Sandstone-Shadow's claim here - mainly because claiming to be a third doctor after two have claimed is a weird and suspicious claim, and it seems easier for mafia to claim something more innocuous-sounding. Also, I've been vaguely reading her as mafia for a while now (caveat: the other player I was definitely reading as mafia was MF, so, uh, I am not exactly infallible there).

Sandstone-Shadow's logic here is also weirdly eager to throw stones at me, to the point of not being entirely consistent; consider the way she claims to have not targeted ILS because of the possibility of overdosing, but then two sentences later forgets about this as a possible reason I wouldn't have targeted him N3.

Sandstone-Shadow said:

I agree with this, and I'm hesitant too. If she was telling the truth, then mafia would likely not have targeted ILS last night (why waste a kill), which means they've got 4 targets left, assuming 2 mafia are left. Wouldn't mafia go for Butterfree, if they knew ILS was protected? Gzhoom and Eifie didn't do any switching, so there was nothing to stop mafia from targeting Butterfree.

The other possibility is mafia targeted Gzhoom last night, and my heal saved him. But honestly, if Butterfree is actually a doctor, I'm not sure why mafia wouldn't have killed her last night.

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This doesn't follow. The mafia didn't know Gzhoom and Eifie wouldn't do any switching; I explicitly asked Gzhoom to switch me with somebody, so logically they should have expected that targeting me would at most get them someone else (and if a second doctor was around who tried to heal me, that person wouldn't even die).

Re: [D5] ASB Halloween Mafia

Butterfree said:

No; I didn't heal him because I was concerned there might be another hidden doctor who'd be healing him, so if I did too he might overdose. I stated this in my roleclaim post, and if you're telling the truth, it was exactly the right choice! I did heal ILS last night because I'd posted in the thread that I would, and I hoped any hidden doctors would therefore avoid him.

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You're right, it was a good choice - I hadn't considered the possibility of more than one doctor, and with so few people left and so many apparent mafia, it's going to mean more coordination. (and more possibly unwarranted trust?)

Three doctors does sound fairly unlikely, especially with a bunch of redirecting going on as well, and personally, I'm most suspicious of Sandstone-Shadow's claim here - mainly because claiming to be a third doctor after two have claimed is a weird and suspicious claim, and it seems easier for mafia to claim something more innocuous-sounding. Also, I've been vaguely reading her as mafia for a while now (caveat: the other player I was definitely reading as mafia was MF, so, uh, I am not exactly infallible there).

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I claimed before Keldeo, so not sure why you're accusing me of a convenient claim. My claim has some griunds, too, at least in terms of why I asked so many specific questions in N2, in particular - even D4, to be honest. I guess whether you believe me is up to you. I didn't know how likely there was to be multiple doctors, so naturally I was suspicious of you.

Sandstone-Shadow's logic here is also weirdly eager to throw stones at me, to the point of not being entirely consistent; consider the way she claims to have not targeted ILS because of the possibility of overdosing, but then two sentences later forgets about this as a possible reason I wouldn't have targeted him N3.

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You're right about this - I was just thinking out lot there, and I rambled my way into concluding that maybe you did have a good reason for not trying to heal ILS sooner.

[/quote]This doesn't follow. The mafia didn't know Gzhoom and Eifie wouldn't do any switching; I explicitly asked Gzhoom to switch me with somebody, so logically they should have expected that targeting me would at most get them someone else (and if a second doctor was around who tried to heal me, that person wouldn't even die).[/QUOTE]Right, but Gzhoom couldn't have switched you with himself, so if they wanted to get you, they shouldn't have targeted him.

Re: [D5] ASB Halloween Mafia

Keldeo said:

because I've pretty consistently read MF as aggressive town with his posts and pushes since day 1, which feels pretty "in character" for him.

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Man, if I ever figure out who's playing this character, I'm gonna kick their ass.

Ahem! The game, huh? First of all, I guess ZM's ostensibly overpowered claim makes a lot more sense now -- in fact, his insistence on mentioning how he knows about there being players with kills other than mafia makes me think he might have been a serial killer. Not that he was otherwise wrong about that, though.

Now then, I've got something pretty useful in the spirit of narrowing us down, so, it's time for me to claim. I'm a jack-of-all-trades -- you know the drill, one kill, one cop, one doc, one block. That second one would be what Kratos saw me doing to Keldeo on N0, and what do you know, it demonstrably went through as I found out that she's Town back then. (In fact, I'm pretty glad Eifie got to this thread on D2 before I ever did, so she could clear up the whole redirection mess before I had to show up here counterclaiming the damn cop.) I've also figured it was worth a shot using my heal on the doc N2, specially since my PM says nothing of healer clash so I assumed that wouldn't be a risk (in fact, I assumed that we were unlikely to have more protection than both this and the jailer, but what do you know, we've got more people claiming doc than we have mafiosi alive, probably. and at least one of them appears to be town as far as my copping goes, too). I've still got my vig and my block, since, unlike the other two, there were no circumstances making it favorable to use them early.

What this boils down to is: Keldeo is innocent, I'm innocent (and it's not even just me saying that, as it turns out), Eifie and ILS technically haven't been cleared but have both been making very strongly town games. Ghzoom does have a clear from ILS, but I don't know that I can trust it 100% -- mostly considering that a scum bus driver who swaps himself off (as scum bus drivers often do when playing passively) on a night when the cop targets him has no incentive whatsoever to be honest about who he swapped, au contraire (and we do know that redirection monkeyry doesn't show up on ILS's results, as seen on D1). And then we have Butterfree and Sandstone-Shadow, both unclear and stuck on a counterclaim.

I'd be inclined to assume that the mafia is Ghzoom and one of Butterfree or Sandstone-Shadow (and most likely the latter really), but then, these last few posts have been sounding to me like they could be a spot of the ol' bussing spectacle in the works. I'm gonna have to do some hard thinking on whether said spectacle would be necessary for the mafiosi to push forward at this point in the game. But go on, entertain me, why don't ya?

Re: [D5] ASB Halloween Mafia

Metallica Fanboy said:

I've also figured it was worth a shot using my heal on the doc N2, specially since my PM says nothing of healer clash so I assumed that wouldn't be a risk

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You healed who on N2?

My PM does state the risk of healer clash - this is something I should have heeded more, but I didn't think it was likely and there wasn't much I would be able to do about it without claiming, anyway.

Re: [D3] ASB Halloween Mafia

Gzhoom said:

Oh, two things to clarify:

1. Negrek informed me after N0 that he made an error in my info and that I shouldn’t be able to target myself.

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I'm reading this as unable to switch themselves away to someone else, for possible cop inspection, unless this is a lie.

Re: [D5] ASB Halloween Mafia

Sandstone-Shadow said:

I claimed before Keldeo, so not sure why you're accusing me of a convenient claim.

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I'm saying Keldeo's claim (a third doctor) is surprising and odd, while yours (a second doctor) was not really, so yours was safer than Keldeo's. It's reasonable the mafia figured it was unlikely there were still two living doctors and thus believed a second doctor claim would go uncontested; it'd be weird for the mafia to break out "Oh, yeah, I'm a doctor too!" after two real ones have already been revealed. And assuming we trust MF, Keldeo is indeed a real doctor. (I'm saying all this, of course, knowing that I'm a real doctor. From your point of view, it could be my claim that's fake.)

Sandstone-Shadow said:

Right, but Gzhoom couldn't have switched you with himself, so if they wanted to get you, they shouldn't have targeted him.

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Seeing as in my plan Gzhoom was the end of a doctor chain (in my plan he'd be "protecting" me, and I'd be protecting ILS), it seems pretty reasonable they'd try to target him, actually (so that next time I'd be vulnerable, and after that ILS). They could also have figured that since my plan was never explicitly confirmed in the thread - or because we've already had a scenario where someone would plan to "protect" ILS in the thread only for them to not actually do so under the assumption that the mafia then wouldn't target him - I might not actually target ILS, and thus they took a shot at him. Or they thought someone else could be out there who'd protect Gzhoom and decided to go for Eifie, who Keldeo healed.

MF's reasoning seems sound to me. Shall we go with Gzhoom, then? Or do we want to resolve the mystery of the fake doctor?

If we lynch Gzhoom, I suggest tonight Keldeo heals ILS, since Keldeo has been confirmed by someone confirmed town (unless some innocent-inspected scum shenanigans are going on). ILS inspects either me or Sandstone-Shadow. Sandstone-Shadow and I are very unlikely to both be real doctors, so I'm tempted to say we should both heal Keldeo. (Mafia doctor seems unlikely, since then they could have overdosed ILS yesterday but didn't.) As far as I can tell, the possibilities of the result of this scenario are:

1. Keldeo dies. This means Sandstone-Shadow and I are either both real doctors or both mafia; ILS's inspection should be able to tell us which. This is probably very unlikely.
2. One of me/Sandstone-Shadow dies, flipping town. This strongly suggests the other is mafia, and there's at least a 50% chance ILS's inspection can confirm this (more if he goes with inspecting the one who actually is mafia).
3. Eifie or MF dies, in which case we will have ILS's inspection result to point fingers either at me or Sandstone-Shadow.

Anything I've overlooked here?

Re: [D5] ASB Halloween Mafia

Butterfree said:

MF's reasoning seems sound to me. Shall we go with Gzhoom, then? Or do we want to resolve the mystery of the fake doctor?

If we lynch Gzhoom, I suggest tonight Keldeo heals ILS, since Keldeo has been confirmed by someone confirmed town (unless some innocent-inspected scum shenanigans are going on). ILS inspects either me or Sandstone-Shadow. Sandstone-Shadow and I are very unlikely to both be real doctors, so I'm tempted to say we should both heal Keldeo. (Mafia doctor seems unlikely, since then they could have overdosed ILS yesterday but didn't.) As far as I can tell, the possibilities of the result of this scenario are:

1. Keldeo dies. This means Sandstone-Shadow and I are either both real doctors or both mafia; ILS's inspection should be able to tell us which. This is probably very unlikely.
2. One of me/Sandstone-Shadow dies, flipping town. This strongly suggests the other is mafia, and there's at least a 50% chance ILS's inspection can confirm this (more if he goes with inspecting the one who actually is mafia).
3. Eifie or MF dies, in which case we will have ILS's inspection result to point fingers either at me or Sandstone-Shadow.

Anything I've overlooked here?

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I think we should lynch one of the doctors today, because someone here is (pretty much) definitely lying, as opposed to Gzhoom who might be lying and, since he's inspected innocent, wouldn't count as mafia for win conditions anyway. How about this?

• We lynch either SS or Butterfree.
• The one we don't lynch, along with Keldeo, heals Gzhoom tonight. If the one we didn't lynch is also a doctor, Gzhoom will die. Otherwise, the mafia won't be able to kill Gzhoom because he'll still have one heal on him. Gzhoom can't swap himself, and I won't redirect anyone, so he won't be able to mess anything up with bus driving.
• ILS inspects the one we didn't lynch, I guess, just to be sure?

Re: [D5] ASB Halloween Mafia

I'll respond to the rest of this later, but it seems to me like we're assuming it's either me or Butterfree lying - it could also be Keldeo. Are we ignoring that because "third doctor claim would be a risky move" thing?

Can a jack of all trades be a mafia-aligned role? I believe MF is the first person to claim Keldeo flipped town, right? Or did I forget about something that happened earlier?

Re: [D5] ASB Halloween Mafia

ILS inspected MF as town, and MF inspected Keldeo as town. It's possible there's some third-partying going on here, but it's very reasonable to regard Keldeo's claim as the most solid of the three of us.

Eifie said:

The one we don't lynch, along with Keldeo, heals Gzhoom tonight. If the one we didn't lynch is also a doctor, Gzhoom will die. Otherwise, the mafia won't be able to kill Gzhoom because he'll still have one heal on him. Gzhoom can't swap himself, and I won't redirect anyone, so he won't be able to mess anything up with bus driving.

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Intentional overdosing just to confirm whether someone is a doctor seems pretty reckless, particularly since if we do this, ILS will be vulnerable. The idea with my plan is that ILS will definitely live, unless MF turns out to be lying about Keldeo.

Re: [D5] ASB Halloween Mafia

(Well, when I say third-partying I mean anything non-town that inspects as town, including mafia-aligned roles.)

Re: [D5] ASB Halloween Mafia

Butterfree said:

Intentional overdosing just to confirm whether someone is a doctor seems pretty reckless, particularly since if we do this, ILS will be vulnerable. The idea with my plan is that ILS will definitely live, unless MF turns out to be lying about Keldeo.

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Honestly, if we do try to intentionally overdose someone, it should be Keldeo. You mentioned this already, Butterfree, as a possible plan, and I'm tempted to say we should go for it. If we ARE both doctors, then we eliminate Keldeo, who would have had to be lying. This does then put ILS at risk, unless Gzhoom can swap ILS with someone.

Re: [D5] ASB Halloween Mafia

I'm not sure what options we have that don't put ILS at risk and don't confirm which of us doctors are lying, at least not in a gambling kind of way. Lynching me or Butterfree could result in losing a real doctor, but then again, we have three claims going around and seem to be okay with the idea with two of them being real. If we mislynch one, it might not be the end of the world since there's likely another real doctor? However, lynching one of us would break up the other plans we've got in place.

Obviously, if we lynch one and they're mafia, that's a win for the town. If we lynch one and they're town, then we have one doctor we know wasn't lying and still two that we might be unsure of. Keldeo would have to be in agreement with what Butterfree and I might try to plan, because otherwise there is no plan if we lynch me or Butterfree and turn out to be wrong.

Re: [D5] ASB Halloween Mafia

Butterfree said:

Intentional overdosing just to confirm whether someone is a doctor seems pretty reckless, particularly since if we do this, ILS will be vulnerable. The idea with my plan is that ILS will definitely live, unless MF turns out to be lying about Keldeo.

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The idea was that it's down to you/SS and Gzhoom, so the game would end at that point anyway. I guess if we want to be more cautious we could have Keldeo heal ILS and the other person do I don't know what, and just rely on ILS's inspection on the other person.

Mostly I just think doing a lynch that probably has a 50/50 chance of getting us a mafia-flipping mafia is of higher priority than lynching Gzhoom when we can be pretty certain that he'll flip innocent anyway due to the inspection. Not so sure what to do after that yet.

Re: [D5] ASB Halloween Mafia

I'm just not 100% convinced that MF is telling the truth - his posts so far have been very eloquent/boastful in a way that could be a cover up, and if he is a scum town, he could very easily have flipped mafia for Keldeo and could be lying to us about it. I'm not saying me or Butterfree isn't a safer bet, but I'm not ready to assume Keldeo is in the clear.

Re: [D5] ASB Halloween Mafia

Sandstone-Shadow said:

I'm just not 100% convinced that MF is telling the truth - his posts so far have been very eloquent/boastful in a way that could be a cover up, and if he is a scum town, he could very easily have flipped mafia for Keldeo and could be lying to us about it. I'm not saying me or Butterfree isn't a safer bet, but I'm not ready to assume Keldeo is in the clear.

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Hence the "probably". I think he usually talks like that, though.