Re: [D5] ASB Halloween Mafia
And re: the first option: I do think Keldeo has been quieter than usual lately, although the post count disagrees with me somewhat. She also did not talk at all yesterday. Keldeo, do you have anything to say about this?
So I actually have an explanation for my low activity recently - it's pretty much due to a combination of me not having much relevant to say, and not really suspecting ZM one way or the other (besides what in hindsight was a pretty anti-town tone in some of his posts) but it's mostly because of schoolwork. This week (as in, 12/11 to 12/15) was exam week for me, and last week was dead week, so I had to finish up a lot of really important final projects for the classes that didn't have exams. The last day phase was right in the middle of the last weekend before finals, so I was basically reviewing all day and didn't have time to take more than a cursory look at the thread. I just had my last exam for the calendar year today, though, so I should be able to post more from now on.
Okay, more relatedly to figuring out the game, I've been saying that process of elimination is the key to figuring out who the two mafia still alive are, so I should probably deliver on that - here's where I'm at now for my thought process as to who's mafia.
People still alive, in order of the player list: Gzhoom, MF, Butterfree, Eifie, ILS, me, SS. If it's 5 town:2 mafia right now, after a mislynch and kill it would be 3:2; no lynch + kill or mislynch + no kill, 4:2; correct lynch and kill, 4:1; correct lynch and no kill, 5:1. So I think it's pretty imperative that we lynch, and lynch the most suspicious person, today. (People who've died and flipped town: RedneckPhoenix, Cynder, Superbird, Stryke, Kratos. People who've died and flipped mafia/Pokemon: Flora, ZM.)
First off, I know I'm town. (I know that ZM said this and ended up being a third party, but I actually do think that my role would be better kept from the mafia at this point in the game, and it wouldn't help town as much as it would hurt to have out in the open, I think. I can claim if it's necessary; like I said, I don't have any more exams from here on out, so I'll be more attentive to what's going on in the thread.) And as I've stated before, it's very, very unlikely that ILS is lying about his role, and he's provided us with good information so far. So we can move me and him to the front of the list: me, ILS, Gzhoom, MF, Butterfree, Eifie, SS
MF and Gzhoom were confirmed innocent by ILS, on n4 and n3, respectively. As Eifie's said, this could mean that they're "half-mafia" or godfather or a similar role that investigates as innocent but isn't actually town; while it's somewhat unlikely, I'm pretty sure Godfather is a pretty standard role, looking at the mafia rules, and it's not a stretch to think that a godfather-type would be in this game. Between MF and Gzhoom, I personally think Gzhoom is more likely to be this type of role, if there is one, because I've pretty consistently read MF as aggressive town with his posts and pushes since day 1, which feels pretty "in character" for him. I don't have as much of a behavioral or tonal read for Gzhoom, who hasn't been posting as much (if you look back through the thread, his posts are pretty consistently just saying what his targets have been, not really analyzing the game.) While he's had valid reasons for it, he's also been idle for the past two nights... Hmm, I also do feel like I tend to give new players too much of the benefit of a doubt, so maybe I'm overcompensating for that? In any case, we can move MF and Gzhoom to the front of the list, with the caveat that they
could potentially be godfather/terrorist/"half-mafia" or the like. Me, ILS, MF, Gzhoom, Butterfree, Eifie, SS.
So, the people we haven't covered are Butterfree, Eifie, and SS. Taking these one at a time:
I honestly trust Eifie the most. Her claim came early, it's rock solid and was instrumental in lynching Flora, and she's been one of the most active posters/solvers (which is pretty typical for her, iirc?) and has led two lynches of anti-town people so far. Her tone is pretty consistently towny as well, especially in how she's been hunting for scum and how she pushed ZM yesterday. There's not really much else to say; there are a coupe tone-based things that
could come from a mafia mindset, but I think it's highly unlikely.
With regard to SS, I want to read her as town, she's been posting a lot and comes across as pretty genuine, but there's also a little off-seeming thing to her behavior? Like, the fact that she's been consistently asking questions about fairly basic mafia stuff like whether we can abstain, whether roles are revealed upon death, and what a Pokemon alignment is
would make me read her as town and just new to mafia... but it's almost a "lady doth protest too much" situation. While some of those questions did reveal information, e.g.
this, I feel like the questions and the working out her reasoning in posts miiight just as easily be a coached thing, where hypothetical mafia-SS's mafia partners told her to post gamestate-related questions or basic deductions that make her seem active and newbie but don't actually give us any information. And in the past few days, she's been echoing Eifie (and, to an extent, me) a lot. While this hasn't been all of her content, which would be a lot more suspicious, it's justifiable but also
could just be another way to get on town's good side. (What I'm talking about:
following me,
Eifie,
Eifie.) I feel like I might also be falling into the trap here of being too skeptical/paranoid of new players, so in the end I just pretty much don't have a read on her. Her behavior could stem from a town mindset, or it could stem from a mafia mindset - I don't know.
Finally, Butterfree... I really don't know. Up until her claim, she seemed kind of suspicious to me. She's been quite inactive, and all of the posts that she did make would've been really easy for a mafia in her position to make imo, because it was pretty much entirely bandwagoning - she's been on literally every single wagon except ZM's, iirc, and including mine when I was being suspected of being mafia. I think she's usually at least a bit more active in terms of at least commenting on things if not offering any new information? So the fact that she just hadn't really been doing anything stuck out to me. And then there's her roleclaim post, which made my estimation of her as town increase a lot - it's definitely plausible, and her claim makes for a good reason to lay low. Except claiming a conveniently ineffectual doctor, while leaving the door open for any potential second doctor not to counterclaim, might also be fairly easy for mafia to say, and it practically ensures that Butterfree wouldn't be lynched if we believed her claim because we need a doctor to protect ILS. All they had to do last night was just not kill anyone, and then Butterfree could claim that it was because of her action, establishing her as a trusted figure. I feel like I'm probably overthinking this in some way, but... with a lack of anyone more suspicious seeming (because honestly, everyone still alive in this game seems at least a little towny to me for one reason or another) she's at the bottom of the list.
Okay, hopefully that was coherent. The final list, from towniest- to scummiest-seeming imo: Me, ILS, MF, Gzhoom, Eifie, SS, Butterfree. (A more accurate label would probably be "most towniest to least towniest" since I don't really see anyone who's glaringly suspicious... but at the same time I don't think I'm very good at sussing out lies very well and I haven't played play-by-post mafia in a long while, so there's probably a scum among the people I think are town.) But that's my reasoning, and that's why I think we should lynch SS or Butterfree today, unless more information turns up.
