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ORAS Mafia Confirmed - Game Thread

I have to say I don't really see why Eifie is so hostile to the suggestion of two mafia factions; with the consistent multiple killings, it's really not an unreasonable conclusion to draw, besides that, y'know, Team Aqua and Magma. The person most determined there were serial killers involved was Negrek, who turned out mafia.

I actually find Lilypad slightly more suspicious now because she seemed really determined to know who Zero Moment would be protecting (which is bad for the town, because then the mafia knows who not to bother targeting). But that could just be mafia naivety. :/ I'm pretty worried now because that means it's really easy for the mafia to target me. How about Zero Moment flips a coin on whether to target me or Eifie? Presumably the inspection won't go through unless we're both alive.
 
It's not the idea of two mafia factions that I'm opposed to; it's like... the presentation of the idea? With the timing (right after a mafia death) and the fact that it's coming from someone who basically hasn't been here all game, it's ringing like a thousand bells in my head with the thing where like, mafia try to gain points for making useful contributions by pretending to come up with some idea about something they know to be true, but aren't supposed to know. But eh, I'll just sit here in my unconvinced corner. You are right that it was mainly Negrek who pushed the serial killer thing (I remember pointing that out myself for kind of the same reason I'm suspicious of hopeandjoy now); I'd thought it was a lot more widespread than that, but I guess not.

We're pretty sure Lilypad can't communicate at night, right? There's no reason to doubt ILS since both he and Dazel turned up innocent. She could still be some independent, but mafia seems unlikely at this point.

MF told me that my mysterious contractee needs to be alive to carry out the action; I assumed it would still be carried out if you happened to die that night (like, all your night actions are still carried out the night you die) but I'll see if I can check that.
 
Well, we only have less than five hours left and still no idea on who to lynch. *sigh*

I'm sorry for asking who he would kill-block, in hindsight it was a bad idea. I'm sorrier for putting you in possible danger, Butterfree.

But, I guess I was asking so many questions because I'm still suspicious. His (unverified) power is handy, I agree... but it seems too handy. Of course, no one in their right mind would lynch a healer, which keeps him alive one more night at least either way. And the clause about someone needing to be lynched for it to work, well chances are that if he is mafia the (purely statistical) chances are that we are not going to lynch the one other mafia. That is, if there are only two mafia left (I remember ILS saying something about ratios and there were probably 3-4 mafia in a game of this size and 2 down now, but please correct me if otherwise) and our chances are improved because I've pretty much ruled out myself (though others may not have), Eifie and Butterfree, although I cant be sure, but you two don't seem like likely mafia, considering how helpful you are.

*sigh* Is anybody else even slightly suspicious? He seems like the most suspicious out of all of us, at least to me. Remember when ILS revealed I hadn't been talking and Negrek was? He threw in a comment that "even when he was mafia in earlier games, they didn't have the best of communication all the time" . It sounded like he was trying to spread seeds of doubt about me when the evidence only pointed to Negrek. He might have just been trying to be helpful but if he was mafia it was in his best interest to a) try to get the innocent lynched as mafia when there was evidence pointing strongly the other way and b) not vote for Neg, his fellow mafia. *yet another wistful sigh* I'm probably just being paranoid and this isn't the strongest case I could make but it's worth looking at to me.

I'm not going to be so quick to vote until I hear some other opinions about this. Preferably I would like ZM to provide some evidence for his innocence (or anyone else if they have the evidence, we absolutely cannot afford another innocent down let alone a healer if he is telling the truth). Another point - he hasn't really done much to try to defend himself. If I were being accused of being mafia by anyone, I would at least try write a paragraph or two to try to convince people of my innocence. Not sure if that is just how he is personally, but it would be easier to keep a lie straight that way, by only putting a sentence or two each time.

There isn't much time left to talk, so I'm going to abstain until we can decide because a random modlynch does not sound appealing. I am going to change this once we find someone and this is by no means a permanent vote.

Please someone respond, whether for or against me. I need some outside input.
 
Well, we have to lynch *somebody.* If we just abstain then we can't even test if ZM is telling the truth or not and then you two will probably get killed, Eifie and Butterfree.

Anybody wanna throw out an idea?
 
Lilypad said:
But, I guess I was asking so many questions because I'm still suspicious. His (unverified) power is handy, I agree... but it seems too handy. Of course, no one in their right mind would lynch a healer, which keeps him alive one more night at least either way. And the clause about someone needing to be lynched for it to work, well chances are that if he is mafia the (purely statistical) chances are that we are not going to lynch the one other mafia. That is, if there are only two mafia left (I remember ILS saying something about ratios and there were probably 3-4 mafia in a game of this size and 2 down now, but please correct me if otherwise)
Click to expand...

The thing about the lynching restriction is a good point. On one hand, it makes sense for MF to include something like that to try to force things to happen, but on the other hand, it's a very convenient thing for mafia to claim. I'm wary about how ZM said that he protected himself one night (and even more because he didn't use his power twice when he could), because there is a reason that healers are not normally allowed to target themselves and I know MF was not happy about the amount of self-healing going on in smash mafia... but I can't remember if he normally GMs that way or not.

About the ratio, it of course varies by GM, but 3-4 mafia is absurdly low in a game of 18 in my opinion; I like to follow the general rule of "no less than a quarter, no more than a third" but mafia counts tend to run low on this forum... so I would think maybe 4 or 5?

Lilypad said:
Remember when ILS revealed I hadn't been talking and Negrek was? He threw in a comment that "even when he was mafia in earlier games, they didn't have the best of communication all the time" . It sounded like he was trying to spread seeds of doubt about me when the evidence only pointed to Negrek. He might have just been trying to be helpful but if he was mafia it was in his best interest to a) try to get the innocent lynched as mafia when there was evidence pointing strongly the other way and b) not vote for Neg, his fellow mafia.
Click to expand...

I think this was actually after I said that Butterfree probably is not communicating with anyone at night since she missed night 2(?) entirely. Regarding that power, by the way - I highly doubt MF would force everyone communicating out of thread to CC him in every communication, so I think Dazel's results must have been based on whether the target had the capability to communicate with someone that night, regardless of whether or not they were using it (since he couldn't know that without making everyone CC him).

Lilypad said:
Another point - he hasn't really done much to try to defend himself. If I were being accused of being mafia by anyone, I would at least try write a paragraph or two to try to convince people of my innocence. Not sure if that is just how he is personally, but it would be easier to keep a lie straight that way, by only putting a sentence or two each time.
Click to expand...

I think that's actually pretty typical of ZM - he never makes much of an effort to defend himself when he or an ally is accused (see smash mafia). I think I was the one who originally brought him up earlier, which led to him claiming (can't remember though and I don't feel like checking) but I basically always suspect Negrek, Butterfree, and ZM of being evil people with evil intentions for some reason, so I don't think I can give a good opinion here...
 
Oh, by the way, I did get an answer as to what would happen to my inspection if my mysterious contactee happened to die tonight, but after my last screw-up I'm not sure if I should make that public.
 
Well, who do we lynch now? Honestly it feels like the candidates are (to me) ZM (but I know we probably wont do that because we still need to check him) RTB and Dar. Maybe haj but I don't really think so. Dar always seemed a little off to me this game so I'm more inclined towards him. Do you have an opinion...? (or anyone, really?)
 
Well, we have to lynch someone. And, like I said before, the earlier mafia had to be active because so many deaths, and haj and rtb couldn't cause finals, so I'm less inclined towards them. If there are 2-3 left then the most likely mafias are: Dar, ZM and the two mentioned above. It's been established that we are not going to lynch ZM. Oh, if only we had another extention... but we've already pushed MF, we've had an extention almost every day and he's been quite lenient. We have to lynch someone for ZM's power to work.

Very, very reluctantly and hesitantly, Dar.

Also, if I get lynched tonight, which is likely, haha called it!
 
Okay this is not related to the lynch (sorry) but so first of all MF told me that even if Butterfree dies tonight, I'll still get the inspection result. If I'm actually not the only one who thinks something's off about ZM, then we really don't want to get him to flip a coin to decide who to heal, don't you think? If we tell him specifically to protect one person, then in a large majority of possible cases it is in his best interest to make sure that that specific person does not die that night, regardless of his actual alignment. But if we have him flip a coin or something to decide whether to heal me or Butterfree, then if he's actually mafia, he can kill whoever he wants and maintain plausible deniability with "whoops, healed the other one lol" and we don't really get anywhere. Our decision on whether or not ZM should flip a coin should depend on how much faith we have in his innocence; if he's innocent and we have him decide between one of us arbitrarily, both of us are much more likely to survive the night (depending on how much the mafia likes taking risks), but if he's mafia and we do the same he can kill either of us without making himself look definitively guilty. If we tell him straight out who to protect, then regardless of his alignment one of us is very likely to survive the night and the other is at risk.
 
(p.s. I have to rush off but I'll be back in an hour hopefully to think about lynching which is kind of cutting it close but what can I do)
 
Eifie said:
Okay this is not related to the lynch (sorry) but so first of all MF told me that even if Butterfree dies tonight, I'll still get the inspection result. If I'm actually not the only one who thinks something's off about ZM, then we really don't want to get him to flip a coin to decide who to heal, don't you think? If we tell him specifically to protect one person, then in a large majority of possible cases it is in his best interest to make sure that that specific person does not die that night, regardless of his actual alignment. But if we have him flip a coin or something to decide whether to heal me or Butterfree, then if he's actually mafia, he can kill whoever he wants and maintain plausible deniability with "whoops, healed the other one lol" and we don't really get anywhere. Our decision on whether or not ZM should flip a coin should depend on how much faith we have in his innocence; if he's innocent and we have him decide between one of us arbitrarily, both of us are much more likely to survive the night (depending on how much the mafia likes taking risks), but if he's mafia and we do the same he can kill either of us without making himself look definitively guilty. If we tell him straight out who to protect, then regardless of his alignment one of us is very likely to survive the night and the other is at risk.
Click to expand...

Ok, sounds good. Not a nomination, MF, (bold might be confusing) but Zero Moment, I want you to directly heal Eifie only instead of flipping a coin. (making this super visible) I apologize, Butterfree, but I feel this is the best course of action as described above. I have very little faith in ZM's innocence and we need the inspection result for sure.

If you want a different thing to happen, Eifie, or if you feel like chiming in with a better idea, Butterfree (anyone) please make the appropriate statement.
 
Oh okay Lilypad voted before I even posted that last thing haha. Let's see how it goes.
 
Not gonna lie, I was tempted to intepret that bold statement maliciously.

-----

Hoenn fervently searches for answers, and this time, the quest is suddenly joined by many people who had up to this point been hidden in their caves and grooves, but refused to stand down any longer with the news that their beloved Secret Base Master had to see the end of his journeys quite so earlier than what should have been.

After a series of stunning discoveries, an offshoot group suddenly arrives at the decision of roughing up Professor Birch. Most protested that idea -- the man was a beloved pillar of the entire region's community, known far and wide both for his fine scientific work and aloof charisma. Nonetheless, it was easy for the minority to conduct an investigation -- they simply chased Professor Birch in circles until he spilled the beans.

After he confessed to some participation in some of the latest clandestine actions, there was simply no one to save the day by picking up his bag and taking a starter, no matter how many times he mentioned that he was coerced by their incredible ability to run after him.

Dar, the Professor Birch, is dead. He was mafia.

72 hours for night actions. (But I'll be on a trip, so I might be late to resolve the actions and shift the phase -- 48 hours give or take should be the maximum possible delay, I'd guess)
 
A blighting headache seems to overcome much of Hoenn's denizens as they awaken, almost none on their intended schedule.

Sleep seems to have most deeply overcome the region's one and only Jirachi, however, who seems to have resumed its era-length slumber... Albeit somehow even more quietly than usually. Ominiously quietly.

Lilypad, the Jirachi, is dead. She was innocent.

72 hours for discussion.
 
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