Ace Attorney Mafia [mafia victoly!]

[Phoenixsong]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

That's a fair point, though saying that it wasn't safe could potentially come back to bite you later when you are activated; the Elise claim would also be silly, then, because that would make you a pretty hot mafia target, and they'd probably try to kill you at night and end up getting rid of you (assuming you are Diego, and I admit I'm leaning more toward "not"; I just tend to play devil's advocate a lot).

 

[Clover]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

You could have just asked one of us to lock the thread! Or threadminned yourself and locked it! (Even though people really ought to know better by now...)

Also, it's possible to edit poll options and for gmods to edit votes (obviously you wouldn't want those of us who are playing to do it, buuuut ask Alraune or something?), so I'm not sure exactly what the problem with changing the poll in the previous thread was...? WE CAN TALK THROUGH THIS, IT'S OKAY

Clearly I subconsciously wanted all this more discussion to happen, or I would have. :'(

... And I guess I was throwing the wrong mods at it?! Well I dunno. Maybe something can be hacked up for future physical-poll-using-use. HELP ME, KRATOS-KUN, YOU'RE MY ONLY HOPE

Given all this, I don't know whether to ditch the physical poll and start over with bold-to-vote, or just keep it for now. I guess if someone says they want to change their vote, I'll redo it with twenty-four more voting hours. \o_O/ I ALWAYS SCREW UP SOMEHOW in every single mafia game, so really it's good to get it out of the way now. yup.

 

[Butterfree]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

It wouldn't be fair anyway to disallow discussion during the voting; because people aren't around all the time, they won't necessarily be there between the time they're nominated and the time the poll goes up, and because they can't communicate outside the thread, they'd have no way to attempt to defend themselves. At least with boldvotes some time usually passes between somebody first being nominated and them getting a majority vote, giving them a chance to notice what's going on.

And yeah, Elise would be a nonsensical claim for Diego, activated or inactivated. It draws the attention of the mafia and makes the villagers less likely to want to lynch you if you succeed.

I note again that I've offered to be inspected tonight. If I'm mafia, you'll find out then, and if I'm not, you're safe not lynching me even if I actually were Diego. Win-win!

Oh, if you have a question that would convince you I'm Elise, I'll gladly ask it tonight.

 

[Clover]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

Okay okay okay. Okay. Kratos has so kindly let given me modly powers to fix the poll! ... And like I said before, I'm ditching it. Twenty-fo-- it's 1:20a. Thirty-six hours for further discussion/bold votes. Sorry for all the confusion! :Db

 

[Phoenixsong]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

Well now that all that's sorted out, I still think we need to do something and will nominate/vote/uh Dannichu again. I'm willing to believe Butterfree for now, though I don't know about having an inspector investigate her because, assuming Gumshoe isn't already dead, I don't know that we really want to out the inspector yet. Investigate if you want, Gumshoe, but yeah. Danni has viewed the thread since she was last mentioned, but still hasn't posted. Presumably that's because we weren't supposed to be posting at the time, though. So! Danni! Thirty-six hours is plenty of time to prove you're worth keeping around~

Thoughts? Anyone? I get lonely talking to myself. ):

 

[Skylark]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

Meh... Sorry for not contributing much I guess.

@Kratos - I can't seem to find Dannichu in *members who have read this thread* Am I missing something or... ?

I can't think of many other ways to account for three deaths. Must have been some combination of Mafia kill and healer clash and/or Lover death and/or Klavier/Apollo revengekill.

I'm willing to bet mafia kill + lover death

My reasoning: For there to have been a healer clash, the probability would be 17/17! or 1/16!. (I'm hoping my math is right) Removing healer clash, that would leave mafia kill, lover death and Klavier/Apollo. The mafia has one kill unless there's a lucky healer, but the chances of that would be 2/16! (higher than healer clash but still low), so I'm betting a mafia kill would've gone through. That would leave us with 2 unaccounted deaths: Klavier/Apollo or Lovers. I doubt Klavier/Apollo caused the 2 kills so yeah...


Note: By ! I mean factorial

 

[Autumn]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

hmm, well. Butterfree doesn't seem to be lying, so I don't think I'll be voting for her again; on the other hand, I'll need more time to consider it before I vote Danni. I'll wait until she posts.

(I know this post is not very useful. it's 5:40 AM and I'm supposed to be getting ready for school.)

 

[opaltiger]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

Meh... Sorry for not contributing much I guess.

@Kratos - I can't seem to find Dannichu in *members who have read this thread* Am I missing something or... ?

She's invisible.

I'm willing to bet mafia kill + lover death

My reasoning: For there to have been a healer clash, the probability would be 17/17! or 1/16!. (I'm hoping my math is right) Removing healer clash, that would leave mafia kill, lover death and Klavier/Apollo. The mafia has one kill unless there's a lucky healer, but the chances of that would be 2/16! (higher than healer clash but still low), so I'm betting a mafia kill would've gone through. That would leave us with 2 unaccounted deaths: Klavier/Apollo or Lovers. I doubt Klavier/Apollo caused the 2 kills so yeah...


Note: By ! I mean factorial

Your maths is wildly wrong. The probability of a healer clash (with two healers) is only 1/289, and that's assuming random selection of targets, which quite obviously isn't the case. 1/16! is some absurdly low number that makes absolutely no sense. EDIT: Actually it's 1/324. There were 19 players alive last night.

Additionally, your argument doesn't actually account for the deaths. You can't say the lovers count for the other two deaths, because something has to actually kill one of them first. I would imagine the situation is one mafia kill, one other cause of death (with healer clash probably being less likely), with the third death being the second lover.

Butterfree: I suppose I'm inclined to think you're innocent, but still, you could have tried to reveal some of your information without giving yourself away. :(

 

[Butterfree]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

Uh, opal, your math is wrong too. The odds of a healer clash are the odds that the second healer picks the same person as the first - you don't need the first one to pick anyone in particular, provided it's not the second healer (since they can't heal themselves). That makes it 17/18 (out of the nineteen players, they're allowed to heal eighteen since they can't heal themselves and must pick any of seventeen that aren't the second healer) * 1/18 (again, the second healer is allowed to heal eighteen people) = 17/324 = 5.2%, quite close to 1/19.

Like I said, I haven't found out much in the way of useful information. I planned to give you Diego not being active if Diego got brought up, but nobody did bring him up until after I'd been accused. (For the record, I also asked about Diego activation on the first night, and about whether anyone had been killed by a healer clash on the second night (no).)

 

[opaltiger]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

Uh, opal, your math is wrong too. The odds of a healer clash are the odds that the second healer picks the same person as the first - you don't need the first one to pick anyone in particular, provided it's not the second healer (since they can't heal themselves). That makes it 17/18 (out of the nineteen players, they're allowed to heal eighteen since they can't heal themselves and must pick any of seventeen that aren't the second healer) * 1/18 (again, the second healer is allowed to heal eighteen people) = 17/324 = 5.2%, quite close to 1/19.

I was still roughly fourteen orders of magnitude closer, okay. (whoops)

Like I said, I haven't found out much in the way of useful information. I planned to give you Diego not being active if Diego got brought up, but nobody did bring him up until after I'd been accused. (For the record, I also asked about Diego activation on the first night, and about whether anyone had been killed by a healer clash on the second night (no).)

Well then. Consider your name cleared?

 

[Espeon]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

Oh, god. When did mafia become so technical?

Either way, with people being dead, you can't be 100% certain there are still two healers, especially because of the no healer clash kill on the 2nd night. I've never actually seen the benefit in relying on statistics in mafia, anyway. I'm sure a lot of other players feel the same. Irrespectively of this, Dannichu's viewing of the thread since her supposed "clearing" does throw her back into suspicion. Seeing as there's near to no chance that Diego has become activated, it's presumably safe to lynch Dannichu.

I'm not at all suspicious of Butterfree any more, but I would like to hear a little bit more about opal's innocence, just in case. I can see why you did accuse Butterfree initially, but throwing out random accusations based on behaviour like that doesn't make you look especially good. :(

Either way, my vote tonight will probably go to Dannichu. She really does seem the most suspicious of all, right now.

 

[opaltiger]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

I can see why you did accuse Butterfree initially, but throwing out random accusations based on behaviour like that doesn't make you look especially good.

If you can see why I accused her the accusation was, by definition, not random.

 

[Not Meowth]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

Either way, with people being dead, you can't be 100% certain there are still two healers, especially because of the no healer clash kill on the 2nd night. I've never actually seen the benefit in relying on statistics in mafia, anyway.

Besides which the statistics are only accurate if the healers are choosing targets at complete random, which we can't tell if they are.

 

[Espeon]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

If you can see why I accused her the accusation was, by definition, not random.

I should probably expand:

I can see why you would personally accuse her based on behaviour. You know Butterfree very well and would presumably know which signs to look out for when she is lying and soforth.

I apologise. I hadn't really chosen the right words to describe what I meant in full.
I've never thought of minor personality blips as a terribly stable foudation for a full blown accusation. Although it doesn't ring true for this particular example, it can result in an alien win and a plethora of other effects upon being lynched. With such little substance to base anything on, I just found it mildly suspicious you would want to immediately point the finger at her. :/

Although it's maybe a little bit more secure in your mind to accuse people as such, I don't feel that it's really the right approach to finding the mafia at present. As such it's probably better to target people we have slightly more solid foundations to base accusations on, even if they're still feeble at best.

 

[opaltiger]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

I apologise. I hadn't really chosen the right words to describe what I meant in full.
I've never thought of minor personality blips as a terribly stable foudation for a full blown accusation. Although it doesn't ring true for this particular example, it can result in an alien win and a plethora of other effects upon being lynched. With such little substance to base anything on, I just found it mildly suspicious you would want to immediately point the finger at her. :/

You'll notice I didn't immediately point my finger at her, just noted that her behaviour was similar to how she usually behaves when mafia. I also pointed out that this case was not quite the same, because she had been more helpful on the first and second days. The only reason I actually nominated her was because we were running out of time and I thought it was unfair that Dannichu be lynched automatically.

 

[Espeon]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

Ah, okay then.

My sincere apologies.

 

[Eifie]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

So yeah, I haven't said much this game. (Tbh, I got kind of intimidated by the fact that this game seems to be all the experienced mafia players, and then me with nothing to contribute >.>) But I'm not completely sure if the answer to Butterfree's question was current. Technically everyone is killed at dawn, after she performs her night action, aren't they? So no one would have died in a healer clash at the time that she got her answer. (I'm probably wrong about this...) Otherwise, the only possibility I can think of is Mafia kill, revenge kill, lover death.

 

[opaltiger]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

I asked Midnight; all information gathering roles (inspector, oracle) are given answers after all other night actions have gone through.

 

[Butterfree]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

And I've been asking all my questions as "By the time this night ends, has Diego been activated/has anyone died from overdose?", specifically to make sure my information would be current.

 

[1. Luftballon]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

dammit, when the mafia is confirmed to have a dayblocker and they are likely to have a roleblocker, even if you do have a doctor, claiming to have an information role makes you useless anyway.