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Search results

  1. opaltiger

    Nuclear Weapons

    No, this is not the same. I'm not saying that if, say, the probability is one in ten a nuke will definitely be fired in the tenth year. I'm saying that, if the probability is one in ten the probability that it will be fired by the tenth year is fairly large (can't be bothered to do the...
  2. opaltiger

    Nuclear Weapons

    Contrary to popular belief this doesn't actually make you look smart, nor does it mysteriously invalidate any sequence of events you haven't mentioned. It only needs to happen once. If the probability of event A happening in any given year is x, in ten years the probability that it will have...
  3. opaltiger

    Nuclear Weapons

    You realise tuition fees are a very recent thing, right.
  4. opaltiger

    Nuclear Weapons

    No, you're right. They were aiming for a bridge that was more or less the centre of the city, missed, and hit a hospital. Well, more or less - nuclear bombs detonate several hundred metres above ground, but those targets were directly beneath. Not that it matters; a few hundred metres one way or...
  5. opaltiger

    Nuclear Weapons

    You've just described the history of mankind. I am against any sort of nuclear weaponry, advocate unilateral disarmament on the side of any country willing to do so, and am extremely concerned that debate about the subject has moved away from "let's get rid of the warheads" to "let's reduce our...
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