Tarot Mafia

[Zori]

I didn't say it would be my only role claim though

Mega Ampharos, Mafia Overlord of Space

(also known as "the person who clears out the storage")

 

[Zori]

The only role I can think of for Mist that's not just straight up "Informed VT" is outgroup/3rd party
If Mist is Mafia, he has a role that implies 3p/outgroup, which is reasonable ig?
(A role like Mafia Cop/Doctor for example)

 

[Zori]

The only role I can think of for Mist that's not just straight up "Informed VT" is outgroup/3rd party
If Mist is Mafia, he has a role that implies 3p/outgroup, which is reasonable ig?
(A role like Mafia Cop/Doctor for example)

tl;dr Mist town 80% of the time
(just ignore the fact that that's 5% above rand)

 

[Zori]

Also we don't know if Mist is PR or effectively VT so any spec about that will be instantly hit over the head with a hammer if Mist flips town

 

[Zori]

And the answer is no, I'm not capable of low-posting tbh

I don't know how much stock to put into Herbe's lack of 3p's/6 wolves in their rand list (on second thought it's probably almost completely NAI)

How about
storm is gut-town because their entrance sounds detatched from any teammates (I suck at these types of reads ftr)

 

[Zori]

Mega Ampharos, Mafia Storage Cleaner Overlord of Space
Mafia Jailkeeper : Vigilante | 1-Shot

Each Day, I can delete someone from the spacetime continuum, effectively killing them at the end of the day, but without a death announcement. They will be revived at the end of the following night. The death isn't announced, so if you try to target them, sucks to suck I guess.

Once per game, at Night, I can delete someone permanently. The only indication of their death will be their removal from the ping list at Day start.

(I'll stop at some point in time ok)

 

[M&F]

hello dearest! why does the render on this minion look so offputting

slightly stretched sideways, unlikely amount of fingers, a mouse cursor hanging directly in front of its face?

anyways, I wouldn't want to stop the discussion so soon, but I'm halfway in the mood to lynch mist already on the considerably high off-chance that they were unsubtly signaling to the in-group mob,

 

[Zori]

slightly stretched sideways, unlikely amount of fingers, a mouse cursor hanging directly in front of its face?

anyways, I wouldn't want to stop the discussion so soon, but I'm halfway in the mood to lynch mist already on the considerably high off-chance that they were unsubtly signaling to the in-group mob,

I mean, that's a 10% I think
which is ~twice rand so pretty considerable
but we can disregard it because presumably we don't need to kill the outgroups anyways

 

[JackPK]

tbh I have no idea how many fingers minions normally have so I have no idea whether three is an unlikely number (or, I guess, two and a thumb)

 

[Keldeo]

Seshas and MF, do you make anything of Herbe and Jack’s reactions to Mist’s information?

I think it’s moderately to highly likely that Mist is not (group mafia) based on how they went about revealing that information. That is, if they were trying to sow paranoia or signal to an outgroup member or something, I don’t think they would have started it like kind of a forced joke and then added clarity. I dunno between them being informed town vs. third party/outgroup.

In any case I think having a non-group mafia seems pretty in-character for VM as a game designer, haha.

I guess I vaguely like Seshas being the first to actually try to read Mist and trying to force a read on storm? though I don’t agree with the latter.

 

[Zori]

I think it’s moderately to highly likely that Mist is not (group mafia) based on how they went about revealing that information. That is, if they were trying to sow paranoia or signal to an outgroup member or something, I don’t think they would have started it like kind of a forced joke and then added clarity. I dunno between them being informed town vs. third party/outgroup.

-snip-

I guess I vaguely like Seshas being the first to actually try to read Mist and trying to force a read on storm? though I don’t agree with the latter.

1. The world where Mist is Mafia for me is where Mafia knows there's an outgroup and Mist is trying to get cred, as revealing the info doesn't really hurt them too severely

2. understandable (re: storm read)

I'd get to the rest later probably, gtg now

 

[Trebek]

im also between town and third party, but my gut wants to say that it seems just a little too obvious for mist to be outgroup? like, would an outgroup mafia really go about it in that way if our immediate response would be to ask if they are outgroup?

 

[qenya]

OK I'm here properly now!

I didn't interpret Mist's initial reveal as a joke, just as a slightly ambiguous phrasing that they quickly clarified. I think it would be completely in character as a signal from an ingroup mafia who's trying to signal to an outgroup. Which is not to say that that's my working theory right now - I think it probably makes more sense for mafia!Mist to signal more subtly, regardless of whether they're ingroup or not - but I don't think it's much less likely than the opposite.

I do think, however, that the information is likely to be true even Mist is mafia, as the alternative would be the tinfoil someone mentioned earlier, that they're setting up some sort of Rube Goldberg machine of a gambit.

 

[Trebek]

I guess I vaguely like Seshas being the first to actually try to read Mist and trying to force a read on storm?

yeah, im still not sure about how i feel about what was said, but i like that something was said in the first place

 

[JackPK]

Seshas and MF, do you make anything of Herbe and Jack’s reactions to Mist’s information?

LOL I read this sentence and thought "huh? did I react to it?" and then remembered I had mech!speculated building off it. no memories head empty

(mech!speculation being something I am deeply instinctively drawn to do, especially considering my experience is heavily based in the old forums mafia games where we basically didn't talk except to abstain or share mech info. so since the new meta appears to be less mech-based, I told myself many times I would try to be less mech-y and more read-y, but oh well, I guess I accidentally went mech-y immediately anyway)

(why don't we have an emoji for bashfully grinning with a sweatdrop, I need that for the end of the previous paragraph)

 

[qenya]

(why don't we have an emoji for bashfully grinning with a sweatdrop, I need that for the end of the previous paragraph)

It's :sweat_smile::

 

[JackPK]

I think the worlds I'm tentatively considering are "Mist is outgroup mafia," "Mist is 3p non-scum," and "Mist is town with a role that directly interacts with 3p somehow"

For now, at least, I don't think I believe that there are TVT-style Vanilla Townies with word-of-god information snippets, at least until/unless more of them come to offer info

 

[JackPK]

(why don't we have an emoji for bashfully grinning with a sweatdrop, I need that for the end of the previous paragraph)

It's :sweat_smile::

Ah! Why didn't I see that in the dropdown haha

 

[qenya]

I think the worlds I'm tentatively considering are "Mist is outgroup mafia," "Mist is 3p non-scum," and "Mist is town with a role that directly interacts with 3p somehow"

For now, at least, I don't think I believe that there are TVT-style Vanilla Townies with word-of-god information snippets, at least until/unless more of them come to offer info

This is where my head is at right now too, with regard to what Mist might be if not mafia. Especially since they joked about the possibility of a third party being unable to win if a different third party won. I doubt that's exactly what their role is, but it's out-of-the-blue enough that it might well have a grain of truth.

Loose extrapolation: If they're 3p but not fullclaiming, that suggests they think at least one faction would have an incentive to prevent them from winning.

 

[M&F]

but we can disregard it because presumably we don't need to kill the outgroups anyways

I wouldn't take that for a given! plus, it's not like it'd be a loss to weaken the scumteam, anyway

Seshas and MF, do you make anything of Herbe and Jack’s reactions to Mist’s information?

their use of the like and the wow face respectively was fine-comb- ahem
both sound like flatly non-alignment-indicative mechspec to me really

I dunno between them being informed town vs. third party/outgroup.

I'd rank self-aligned third-party pretty low on the list of possibilities here; someone of that alignment has like, probably no reason to be forthcoming with putting the rough outlines of their role on display, although I have seen people in similar positions overshare fast and early as a way to gain town's trust (protip: as far as the record goes, that doesn't work and gets you lynched, apparently-)

mist's own claim is that they have powers and isn't just a Mysterious Informant knockoff, which imo points harder to outgroup mob signaling, especially considering the whole tone of "I'm still useful guys don't lynch me" -- something you don't normally want to signal if you're worried about being nightkilled