PARANORMASIGHT mafia

[Natsue Yamamori]

- i don't know who the mafia night kill would have been... harue didn't post much at all, and shogo was incidentally trying to get the vote off tetsuo. my best guess is that maybe shogo was suspicious of someone (in a way i didn't catch) and they ended up killing him? i would have said "or maybe he hinted at his role" but then he turned out vanilla...

This conjecture is plausible, but I reread Shogo's messages and I doubt players like Makoto or Mayu need to kill Shogo immediately given both their comparative game positions. Shogo also cast lighter suspicion on you and Yoko, but again - I don't feel as if Shogo cast enough suspicion upon any single person such that they would need to immediately remove him despite how bad his vote on Mayu looked at the end of the day.

 

[Yakko Sakazaki]

Also, I feel like the mafia likely were responsible for Shogo's death, rather than Harue. They weren't aware of his alignment, and his contribution seemed relatively convincing, so they may have wanted to silence a threat, not knowing it was actually an ally. His role description made no mention of being recruited if targetted by mafia, so this seems at least possible

This feels odd to me. What sense do you make out of whacking the person who just got seen trying to save a flipped mafia? Wouldn't the heat be on them before anyone else?

My line of thinking was basically, with so many people being inactive, anyone being more vocal and active could be seen as a threat to the mafia
But after reading Mayu's posts, I agree that I'm probably wrong, Natsue was a much better target through this line of thinking. So either she got attacked and we have a lucky doctor or role-blocker, or mafia had other reasons to decide their kill (and somehow Harue was their best shot?)
And in the former case (which feels more likely, given Harue didn't really say anything that would make her a target), that would imply there are two other sources of nightkills.

 

[Natsue Yamamori]

With these flips in mind, I find it easier to trust Mayu. There IS a world where one could try and bus their partner and use that to lie low, but doing it d1, after catching a lot of heat earlier in the day, and likely while expecting to be the single surviving wolf? Doesn't seem likely

Also, I feel like the mafia likely were responsible for Shogo's death, rather than Harue. They weren't aware of his alignment, and his contribution seemed relatively convincing, so they may have wanted to silence a threat, not knowing it was actually an ally. His role description made no mention of being recruited if targetted by mafia, so this seems at least possible

It doesn't really make much sense to kill Shogo who looked really bad off of the Tetsuo flip and didn't really have many substantial reads besides (and meta wasn't a factor due to this being anon) over Natsue or someone on the Tetsuo wagon. The possibility I am worried over is that Shogo was the SK kill, Harue was killed by town and the wolves' target was either docced or they were blocked

While both these kills make very little sense from an evil perspective, I hesitate to think that Shogo was a kill made by an independent either, because a serial killer’s primary objective is to survive - and what better way to ensure they survive today by having Shogo around to kill first?

 

[Ayame Tono]

Hellooooo I am sorry, I didn't mean to miss almost the entire day yesterday but real life is being particularly A Lot for me right now and joining mafia may have been a dangerous proposition (I will try to prioritize it more, though)

My strongest hunch reading EoD overNight was that Shogo was mafia, hilariously enough despite that I managed to actually miss the mafia flip until I went to catch up on the thread again this morning. But obviously, that's a moot point now.

I feel some kind of weird gut way about the manner of how Mayu sort of took control of the interpretation of the kills, but then again I was townreading her yesterday for the boldness and I guess some of it is just me compulsively second-guessing what I might be taking for granted, hrmm. I want to at least examine whether w/w wagons makes any sense there before discounting the possibility. Hopefully I can at least look into that tonight so I can feel better.

With regards to the content of Mayu's interpretation of the kills, I would caution that I'm not sure everyone here would be playing in a super 'meta' way. I would not be too surprised to see the mafia make moves that are not necessarily 'optimal' or what you would expect from players on dedicated mafia forums, etc. That's not to say it's an invalid way to analyze the kills, just that I would take it with a bit of a grain of salt.

Hopefully I can keep doing some rereading and opine on more things, but going to leave it here for this post.

 

[The Storyteller]

Vote count​

Jun Erio (1): Natsue Yamamori (#94)
Not voting: Yoko Fukunaga, Yakko Sakazaki, Mio Kurosuzu, Jun Erio, Richter Kai, Ayame Tono, Makoto Ashimiya, Mayu Chozawa

Day 2 will end in about 46 hours.

 

[Mayu Chozawa]

Jun Erio

I have some impression of the rest of the cast of this macabre game, I would like to take your measure as well.

Feels like too easy of a vote to vote the only person who hasn't really done anything. Reads a bit like not wanting to get pushback for a vote, though the fact that no one else has voted is concerning

 

[Mayu Chozawa]

I'll start with Yoko Fukunaga a. for being the remaining person on the cw and b. for completely disappearing despite being one of the relatively more active people D1, which could be read as a loss of WIM due to the flipped wolves

 

[Mayu Chozawa]

hello everyone! i can finally write on something that isn't tiny...! (a computer ^^)

and we have two mafia dead already!

during the night, i read through everyone's posts from day 1, and i came up with some thoughts and speculation:
- shogo is dead now, but i wanted to know why he had me as a vanity wagon day 1 :( i know that i wasn't posting that much but i still wanted to feel included...!
- also shogo's vote for mayu feels like a desperation move to me in retrospective, since he didn't know who the mafia were and wanted slightly better odds of hitting someone innocent
- tetsuo was just the result of the random vote hitting him... i thought it was a little odd for richter to *immediately* jump on the tetsuo wagon right after mayu placed her vote (literally one post after), but since tetsuo flipped mafia (and wasn't a secret mafia like shogo, so the other mafia knew who he was), i think that means mayu/richter feel kind of towny? to me at least.
- i don't know who the mafia night kill would have been... harue didn't post much at all, and shogo was incidentally trying to get the vote off tetsuo. my best guess is that maybe shogo was suspicious of someone (in a way i didn't catch) and they ended up killing him? i would have said "or maybe he hinted at his role" but then he turned out vanilla...
- makoto placed five different votes yesterday, if you count unvoting as one! this isn't suspicious, i just thought it was interesting! assuming my notes were correct, the votes were for ayame, unvote, makoto, shogo, and another unvote. shogo and makoto did have votes placed on each other at one point, but both ended up unvoting (and then shogo ends up voting mayu, and then dying that night)

Is there a reason why I don't feel anything when I read this post? The last two points read like they were done for the sake of writing something, and the others are just stating what others have said with a bit of hedging. Would be more excusable if this wasn't the only post from them this phase (and the D1 posts aren't inspiring either)

 

[Natsue Yamamori]

Jun Erio

I have some impression of the rest of the cast of this macabre game, I would like to take your measure as well.

Feels like too easy of a vote to vote the only person who hasn't really done anything. Reads a bit like not wanting to get pushback for a vote, though the fact that no one else has voted is concerning

It's moreso that I want him to step up. Similar to how I voted Yoko yesterday.

Do you believe I may be evil? I would understand, but I would also ask you who you trust outside Richter.

 

[Natsue Yamamori]

Regardless of our differences, Mayu, your direction today is appreciated and agreed upon. Besides Jun, Yoko is the main person I would suspect at this stage, and Mio - while I appreciate her effort and would welcome more - is for a lack of a better word, lacking.

 

[Jun Erio]

Jun Erio

I have some impression of the rest of the cast of this macabre game, I would like to take your measure as well.

I simply haven't had much to say. I don't have any impressions of the others so if I can't contribute to conversation I don't see why I should. Likewise if I don't have any major suspects, I simply won't vote for now.

 

[Natsue Yamamori]

Jun Erio

I have some impression of the rest of the cast of this macabre game, I would like to take your measure as well.

I simply haven't had much to say. I don't have any impressions of the others so if I can't contribute to conversation I don't see why I should. Likewise if I don't have any major suspects, I simply won't vote for now.

Do you not have any feelings reading the game and the people who've died?

 

[Makoto Ashimiya]

Hmmm. I don't think we'll get much out of trying to read into these deaths yet, y'know. When you're a bad guy and your bad guy numbers are running low, it makes sense to just focus on trying to whittle down the good guys' numbers with as little risk as possible of getting after someone who happens to be protected. And we really can't get much out of the dead guy's posting, too; he knew exactly as much as we do, so we're not going to find out anything new by tracking down his incentives.

Plus, even if we have a killer on our side who would agree to claiming right now, keep in mind we might have some gonzo posting restrictions floating around that part, yeah? Game's haunted and all that.

But eh, you know what, you guys actually think we'll nail another bad guy in a row today? Chances are looking solid there's only one left now. I'd go as far as to say we can afford to take the day off, except, y'know, we'll be here forever if we start with that.

So I'll just go nose down into who hasn't been posting much at all today, I think. Today's probably really not the day when the baddie wants to go catching attention.

 

[Makoto Ashimiya]

Aw, what the-- there was another whole page of stuff after that.

 

[Mio Kurosuzu]

ok so i know everyone thinks my posts are kind of nothingburgers but... my only real theories that i thought about overnight were either (a) setup speculation that nobody's going to confirm or (b) a very specific thing i was looking for that didn't turn up any results >_> which isn't helping my case, but i'm kinda working off basically nothing here

i also don't get the speculation that shogo was killed by an SK (serial killer...? independent killer i'm guessing?) because it seems like at least a handful of us were reading him as mafia overnight so... vigilante seems more likely. i now realize that someone else already said this so aaaaaaaaaaaaaa

 

[Richter Kai]

If there is an independent killer, it's probably best if we focus on finding the last mafia first. There's a lot less to look for with an independent.

 

[Richter Kai]

I don't think there's much to be gained from worrying about the inactives until they post more.

I'd rather look at Yakko Sakazaki. Something about her tone at daystart and assumption that Shogo was the mafia kill don't sit right with me.

 

[Yakko Sakazaki]

As I said, my assumption (more of a faulty deduction, really) about Shogo being the mafia's target was born from him being more vocal, which could be seen as a threat by mafia. And while I do agree that Natsue would probably be a more likely target (since they'd probably rather have Shogo under fire during the day), I actually do see a world where they decide against targetting Natsue, either, due to fear of her being protected by a doctor. After we took out one of them d1, the mafia were probably very wary of wasting their nightkill, which could justify taking out a random, mostly inactive player (Harue). Still, I feel like there were other better targets they could have gone for, like Mayu (who was also relatively active, and despite the initial hostility was likely to be seen as town after Tetsuo's death), Richter (who would be similarly read as town) or Makoto (who was also more active than average, though not as much), but as Ayame pointed out, mafia may have simply gone for a suboptimal play

So basically my current guesses for what happened were either:
Mafia tries to kill someone from the list above but gets blocked or stopped by doctor, SK kills Harue, vig kills Shogo
OR
Mafia kills Harue and SK or vig kills Shogo (probably vig, as others mentioned, SK would have just as much reason to keep Shogo alive as mafia does)

 

[The Storyteller]

Vote count​

Jun Erio (1): Natsue Yamamori (#94)
Yoko Fukunaga (1): Mayu Chozawa (#107)
Yakko Sakazaki (1): Richter Kai (#117)
Not voting: Yoko Fukunaga, Yakko Sakazaki, Mio Kurosuzu, Jun Erio, Ayame Tono, Makoto Ashimiya

Day 2 will end in about 26.5 hours.

 

[Mayu Chozawa]

The fact that nobody has claimed either of the shots makes me question if there is a town vig.