PARANORMASIGHT mafia

[Mayu Chozawa]

With these flips in mind, I find it easier to trust Mayu. There IS a world where one could try and bus their partner and use that to lie low, but doing it d1, after catching a lot of heat earlier in the day, and likely while expecting to be the single surviving wolf? Doesn't seem likely

Also, I feel like the mafia likely were responsible for Shogo's death, rather than Harue. They weren't aware of his alignment, and his contribution seemed relatively convincing, so they may have wanted to silence a threat, not knowing it was actually an ally. His role description made no mention of being recruited if targetted by mafia, so this seems at least possible

It doesn't really make much sense to kill Shogo who looked really bad off of the Tetsuo flip and didn't really have many substantial reads besides (and meta wasn't a factor due to this being anon) over Natsue or someone on the Tetsuo wagon. The possibility I am worried over is that Shogo was the SK kill, Harue was killed by town and the wolves' target was either docced or they were blocked

 

[Mayu Chozawa]

Shogo's reads were what, soft defending Yoko and Makoto and kinda sorta wolfreading me? (Although their reasoning for voting me was just "tie") Doesn't sound like someone with a whole lot of convictions that would be scary to the wolves. Although given that they were lost wolf perhaps we should treat their actual reads as the opposite of what they said in thread

 

[Mayu Chozawa]

Given that Yoko was being pushed by Natsue, that's a sign that Shogo believed they were town. On a side note, #63 and #65 look good for Natsue, since Tetsuo was never going to flip anything but wolf w!Natsue would know that there's nothing to be accomplished with that shading of Richter. Still, I would like Natsue to answer why they didn't break the tie, since they were the only one with a clear opportunity to do it (even if it is likely that there were others lurking).

 

[Natsue Yamamori]

Given that Yoko was being pushed by Natsue, that's a sign that Shogo believed they were town. On a side note, #63 and #65 look good for Natsue, since Tetsuo was never going to flip anything but wolf w!Natsue would know that there's nothing to be accomplished with that shading of Richter. Still, I would like Natsue to answer why they didn't break the tie, since they were the only one with a clear opportunity to do it (even if it is likely that there were others lurking).

In hindsight - even discounting the alignment of Tetsuo - I should have voted him, yes. I did not feel strongly enough about either read to break the tie at the time, but the Tetsuo kill made things much clearer in a way that you dying would not have.

 

[Natsue Yamamori]

Given that Shogo did not know his team, I would prepare for there to be two more evil aligned people this game.

 

[Mayu Chozawa]

11 player games are standardized to have two wolves, 13 player (non-multiball) games three. 12 player games are not standardized but having "2.5" seems reasonable. I do think a serial killer or other hostile ITP is a concern.

 

[Mayu Chozawa]

Given that Yoko was being pushed by Natsue, that's a sign that Shogo believed they were town. On a side note, #63 and #65 look good for Natsue, since Tetsuo was never going to flip anything but wolf w!Natsue would know that there's nothing to be accomplished with that shading of Richter. Still, I would like Natsue to answer why they didn't break the tie, since they were the only one with a clear opportunity to do it (even if it is likely that there were others lurking).

In hindsight - even discounting the alignment of Tetsuo - I should have voted him, yes. I did not feel strongly enough about either read to break the tie at the time, but the Tetsuo kill made things much clearer in a way that you dying would not have.

I'm not entirely satisfied with this answer. "the Tetsuo kill made things much clearer in a way that you dying would not have" feels like hindsight bias, no? Would a two-poster who had no real reads really illuminate things upon their death if they were town? Unless you were entirely depending on the flip to read Richter, which would be eh

 

[Natsue Yamamori]

Given that Yoko was being pushed by Natsue, that's a sign that Shogo believed they were town. On a side note, #63 and #65 look good for Natsue, since Tetsuo was never going to flip anything but wolf w!Natsue would know that there's nothing to be accomplished with that shading of Richter. Still, I would like Natsue to answer why they didn't break the tie, since they were the only one with a clear opportunity to do it (even if it is likely that there were others lurking).

In hindsight - even discounting the alignment of Tetsuo - I should have voted him, yes. I did not feel strongly enough about either read to break the tie at the time, but the Tetsuo kill made things much clearer in a way that you dying would not have.

I'm not entirely satisfied with this answer. "the Tetsuo kill made things much clearer in a way that you dying would not have" feels like hindsight bias, no? Would a two-poster who had no real reads really illuminate things upon their death if they were town? Unless you were entirely depending on the flip to read Richter, which would be eh

It's not hindsight bias in that either Tetsuo flipped good and I know where to look (people who were complacent, possibly Richter, and so on) or Tetsuo flipped evil as he did here and the two Tetsuo voters are generally good. Perhaps a similar thing could be said about you dying, but I felt Tetsuo was a better kill to inform my view on the game - for lack of a better phrasing.

 

[Natsue Yamamori]

Given that Yoko was being pushed by Natsue, that's a sign that Shogo believed they were town. On a side note, #63 and #65 look good for Natsue, since Tetsuo was never going to flip anything but wolf w!Natsue would know that there's nothing to be accomplished with that shading of Richter. Still, I would like Natsue to answer why they didn't break the tie, since they were the only one with a clear opportunity to do it (even if it is likely that there were others lurking).

In hindsight - even discounting the alignment of Tetsuo - I should have voted him, yes. I did not feel strongly enough about either read to break the tie at the time, but the Tetsuo kill made things much clearer in a way that you dying would not have.

I'm not entirely satisfied with this answer. "the Tetsuo kill made things much clearer in a way that you dying would not have" feels like hindsight bias, no? Would a two-poster who had no real reads really illuminate things upon their death if they were town? Unless you were entirely depending on the flip to read Richter, which would be eh

It's not hindsight bias in that either Tetsuo flipped good and I know where to look (people who were complacent, possibly Richter, and so on) or Tetsuo flipped evil as he did here and the two Tetsuo voters are generally good. Perhaps a similar thing could be said about you dying, but I felt Tetsuo was a better kill to inform my view on the game - for lack of a better phrasing.

Likewise, Shogo only made you a viable kill within perhaps 15 minutes or so to the deadline, and I had not enough time to think about how you dying would have affected my view on slots, whereas I had enough time to think about how the day could be read into with a Tetsuo elimination.

You may or may not be satisfied with this answer. Nevertheless, it is my answer.

 

[Natsue Yamamori]

To discuss the kills, Shogo

With these flips in mind, I find it easier to trust Mayu. There IS a world where one could try and bus their partner and use that to lie low, but doing it d1, after catching a lot of heat earlier in the day, and likely while expecting to be the single surviving wolf? Doesn't seem likely

Also, I feel like the mafia likely were responsible for Shogo's death, rather than Harue. They weren't aware of his alignment, and his contribution seemed relatively convincing, so they may have wanted to silence a threat, not knowing it was actually an ally. His role description made no mention of being recruited if targetted by mafia, so this seems at least possible

It doesn't really make much sense to kill Shogo who looked really bad off of the Tetsuo flip and didn't really have many substantial reads besides (and meta wasn't a factor due to this being anon) over Natsue or someone on the Tetsuo wagon. The possibility I am worried over is that Shogo was the SK kill, Harue was killed by town and the wolves' target was either docced or they were blocked

To discuss this topic, yes, I do agree: neither of the deaths make sense from an evil perspective. Shogo was active enough to perhaps merit a kill from evils prior to the Tetsuo kill, but given his vote at the end of the day he was never someone evils would want to kill. Likewise, Harue was largely unable to contribute on Day 1 and I cannot fathom why evil would want to kill her immediately.

 

[Natsue Yamamori]

Hm, my prior draft seems to have been saved before I quoted Mayu's message. Careless of me, but the point should still be clear.

 

[Mio Kurosuzu]

hello everyone! i can finally write on something that isn't tiny...! (a computer ^^)

and we have two mafia dead already!

during the night, i read through everyone's posts from day 1, and i came up with some thoughts and speculation:
- shogo is dead now, but i wanted to know why he had me as a vanity wagon day 1 :( i know that i wasn't posting that much but i still wanted to feel included...!
- also shogo's vote for mayu feels like a desperation move to me in retrospective, since he didn't know who the mafia were and wanted slightly better odds of hitting someone innocent
- tetsuo was just the result of the random vote hitting him... i thought it was a little odd for richter to *immediately* jump on the tetsuo wagon right after mayu placed her vote (literally one post after), but since tetsuo flipped mafia (and wasn't a secret mafia like shogo, so the other mafia knew who he was), i think that means mayu/richter feel kind of towny? to me at least.
- i don't know who the mafia night kill would have been... harue didn't post much at all, and shogo was incidentally trying to get the vote off tetsuo. my best guess is that maybe shogo was suspicious of someone (in a way i didn't catch) and they ended up killing him? i would have said "or maybe he hinted at his role" but then he turned out vanilla...
- makoto placed five different votes yesterday, if you count unvoting as one! this isn't suspicious, i just thought it was interesting! assuming my notes were correct, the votes were for ayame, unvote, makoto, shogo, and another unvote. shogo and makoto did have votes placed on each other at one point, but both ended up unvoting (and then shogo ends up voting mayu, and then dying that night)

 

[Natsue Yamamori]

Makoto, Mayu, and Richter especially ought to be trustworthy this game.

I shall wait for the rest to arrive for further reaction.

 

[Natsue Yamamori]

Jun Erio

I have some impression of the rest of the cast of this macabre game, I would like to take your measure as well.

 

[Richter Kai]

Evening.

Glad to see my intuition didn't lead me wrong. Think we're in a pretty good spot all things considered now as long as we don't get complacent.

 

[Richter Kai]

Also, I feel like the mafia likely were responsible for Shogo's death, rather than Harue. They weren't aware of his alignment, and his contribution seemed relatively convincing, so they may have wanted to silence a threat, not knowing it was actually an ally. His role description made no mention of being recruited if targetted by mafia, so this seems at least possible

This feels odd to me. What sense do you make out of whacking the person who just got seen trying to save a flipped mafia? Wouldn't the heat be on them before anyone else?

 

[Mayu Chozawa]

Makoto, Mayu, and Richter especially ought to be trustworthy this game.

I shall wait for the rest to arrive for further reaction.

Richter I understand but why Makoto? Most of their posts read as meh to me

 

[Natsue Yamamori]

Makoto, Mayu, and Richter especially ought to be trustworthy this game.

I shall wait for the rest to arrive for further reaction.

Richter I understand but why Makoto? Most of their posts read as meh to me

Largely in that Makoto occupies that space in which he is clearly putting thought into the game, yet feels no pressure to force the outcome to align with what he wants. I feel Makoto is definitely active enough and has the energy to make an effort to push someone outside his teammates (if evil).

That is to say: Makoto being an evil does not particularly align with Tetsuo dying yesterday.

 

[Natsue Yamamori]

Makoto, Mayu, and Richter especially ought to be trustworthy this game.

I shall wait for the rest to arrive for further reaction.

Richter I understand but why Makoto? Most of their posts read as meh to me

Largely in that Makoto occupies that space in which he is clearly putting thought into the game, yet feels no pressure to force the outcome to align with what he wants. I feel Makoto is definitely active enough and has the energy to make an effort to push someone outside his teammates (if evil).

That is to say: Makoto being an evil does not particularly align with Tetsuo dying yesterday.

Something that I think might have carried over - and I should rethink this at least - is that I felt fairly certain Shogo was evil overnight and Shogo was clearly not aligned with Makoto.

Given that Shogo was uninformed of his teammates, however, I do acknowledge some of my confidence may be misplaced, yet I still consider Makoto trustworthy and would not consider him for an elimination anytime soon.

 

[Natsue Yamamori]

Makoto, Mayu, and Richter especially ought to be trustworthy this game.

I shall wait for the rest to arrive for further reaction.

Richter I understand but why Makoto? Most of their posts read as meh to me

If not Makoto, who would you suggest putting collective trust into?

I do trust you and Richter, but 3 people does not a village make.