Cats (2019) Mafia

[Trebek]

you're kind of missing the point in a big way here, which is that there is no reason for the mafia to concede a lynch of one of their own here when we're in mylo and town isn't agreed on who scum is anyway.

i’m... not missing that point? i get that mafia shouldn’t concede a lynch of one of their own, all i am saying is that they don’t necessarily have to take action rn

it feels like you’re trying to twist my posts here, and i don’t really get why

 

[Novae]

i have never heard of a provided fakeclaim and am pretty doubtful something like that is at play here. i don't know jack's gming style that well but it doesn't sound particularly likely to me

then what would mafia do when they had to claim their flavor?

 

[kyeugh]

you're kind of missing the point in a big way here, which is that there is no reason for the mafia to concede a lynch of one of their own here when we're in mylo and town isn't agreed on who scum is anyway.

i’m... not missing that point? i get that mafia shouldn’t concede a lynch of one of their own, all i am saying is that they don’t necessarily have to take action rn

it feels like you’re trying to twist my posts here, and i don’t really get why

i'm not twisting your posts, i'm saying that yes, they pretty much do have to take action right now. your argument is that we can't conclude anything because maybe they're going to suddenly swing in the future or something, and i'm saying no, that would be kind of a bad play and i don't think it's reasonable to assume that strongly enough to shut down speculation/wagon analysis.

 

[Trebek]

you're kind of missing the point in a big way here, which is that there is no reason for the mafia to concede a lynch of one of their own here when we're in mylo and town isn't agreed on who scum is anyway.

i’m... not missing that point? i get that mafia shouldn’t concede a lynch of one of their own, all i am saying is that they don’t necessarily have to take action rn

it feels like you’re trying to twist my posts here, and i don’t really get why

i'm not twisting your posts, i'm saying that yes, they pretty much do have to take action right now. your argument is that we can't conclude anything because maybe they're going to suddenly swing in the future or something, and i'm saying no, that would be kind of a bad play and i don't think it's reasonable to assume that strongly enough to shut down speculation/wagon analysis.

but i wasn’t trying to shut down speculation! i’m trying to say that your initial claim that the wagons can’t possibly be w/w felt more like a bygone conclusion than speculation, which is something we can’t conclude without reading the mafia’s minds

 

[kyeugh]

i have never heard of a provided fakeclaim and am pretty doubtful something like that is at play here. i don't know jack's gming style that well but it doesn't sound particularly likely to me

then what would mafia do when they had to claim their flavor?

poke around on the wiki and hope they pick something that no one actually got, i guess. i think the current understanding is that flavor probably doesn't necessarily imply alignment for the most part anyway, since very few of the characters are actually evil, or something? so they could conceivably just claim their actual cat and come up with a fake role or whatever, unless they happened to have the single evil cat. that's my understanding of it at least.

 

[Trebek]

yeah, i was under the impression that most mafia could feasibly get away with claiming their actual cat, with just a different role

 

[Novae]

okay so

if blu is mafia and keldeo is not, why does blu claim flavor first
if keldeo is mafia and blu is not, why does keldeo bother crumbing

 

[kyeugh]

you're kind of missing the point in a big way here, which is that there is no reason for the mafia to concede a lynch of one of their own here when we're in mylo and town isn't agreed on who scum is anyway.

i’m... not missing that point? i get that mafia shouldn’t concede a lynch of one of their own, all i am saying is that they don’t necessarily have to take action rn

it feels like you’re trying to twist my posts here, and i don’t really get why

i'm not twisting your posts, i'm saying that yes, they pretty much do have to take action right now. your argument is that we can't conclude anything because maybe they're going to suddenly swing in the future or something, and i'm saying no, that would be kind of a bad play and i don't think it's reasonable to assume that strongly enough to shut down speculation/wagon analysis.

but i wasn’t trying to shut down speculation! i’m trying to say that your initial claim that the wagons can’t possibly be w/w felt more like a bygone conclusion than speculation, which is something we can’t conclude without reading the mafia’s minds

you can't completely conclude anything other than info yielded by your role without reading anyone's minds though, that's the nature of the game. everything in this game is going to be speculation because there's always a chance someone is lying. i made some analysis into wagon composition and you pushed back on it by trying to suggest that we can't meaningfully deduce anything, which i am inclined to view as an attempt to shut down speculation.

 

[mewtini]

okay so

if blu is mafia and keldeo is not, why does blu claim flavor first
if keldeo is mafia and blu is not, why does keldeo bother crumbing

yeah I don't really buy Keldeo's counterclaim at all as it stands, the 'softclaim' cited feels super weak and like something you might dig up in hindsight, not something you'd actually do to softclaim your cat. (Like, if it'd been some form of calling himself a seer in a way that seems jokey, fair enough... but just calling it "seer cover"?)

tbh this

 

[Trebek]

you're kind of missing the point in a big way here, which is that there is no reason for the mafia to concede a lynch of one of their own here when we're in mylo and town isn't agreed on who scum is anyway.

i’m... not missing that point? i get that mafia shouldn’t concede a lynch of one of their own, all i am saying is that they don’t necessarily have to take action rn

it feels like you’re trying to twist my posts here, and i don’t really get why

i'm not twisting your posts, i'm saying that yes, they pretty much do have to take action right now. your argument is that we can't conclude anything because maybe they're going to suddenly swing in the future or something, and i'm saying no, that would be kind of a bad play and i don't think it's reasonable to assume that strongly enough to shut down speculation/wagon analysis.

but i wasn’t trying to shut down speculation! i’m trying to say that your initial claim that the wagons can’t possibly be w/w felt more like a bygone conclusion than speculation, which is something we can’t conclude without reading the mafia’s minds

you can't completely conclude anything other than info yielded by your role without reading anyone's minds though, that's the nature of the game. everything in this game is going to be speculation because there's always a chance someone is lying. i made some analysis into wagon composition and you pushed back on it by trying to suggest that we can't meaningfully deduce anything, which i am inclined to view as an attempt to shut down speculation.

ok, i’m sorry if that’s how i came across. the reason i responded the way i did was meant to open up speculation, because i felt like you were opening and closing the spec entirely in one post

 

[kyeugh]

okay so

if blu is mafia and keldeo is not, why does blu claim flavor first
if keldeo is mafia and blu is not, why does keldeo bother crumbing

i read blu's claim as a response to keldeo's vote on him tbh. blu seems to feel like he has no one on his side/is at risk, so he was providing the information he had, i guess.

 

[mewtini]

i read blu's claim as a response to keldeo's vote on him tbh. blu seems to feel like he has no one on his side/is at risk, so he was providing the information he had, i guess.

huh
he claimed during massclaim

 

[Novae]

okay but keldeo instantly said he had a crumb so it pretty much had to have been planned out somehow

Yes? Maybe?

 

[mewtini]

i ... do not think so

 

[kyeugh]

you're kind of missing the point in a big way here, which is that there is no reason for the mafia to concede a lynch of one of their own here when we're in mylo and town isn't agreed on who scum is anyway.

i’m... not missing that point? i get that mafia shouldn’t concede a lynch of one of their own, all i am saying is that they don’t necessarily have to take action rn

it feels like you’re trying to twist my posts here, and i don’t really get why

i'm not twisting your posts, i'm saying that yes, they pretty much do have to take action right now. your argument is that we can't conclude anything because maybe they're going to suddenly swing in the future or something, and i'm saying no, that would be kind of a bad play and i don't think it's reasonable to assume that strongly enough to shut down speculation/wagon analysis.

but i wasn’t trying to shut down speculation! i’m trying to say that your initial claim that the wagons can’t possibly be w/w felt more like a bygone conclusion than speculation, which is something we can’t conclude without reading the mafia’s minds

you can't completely conclude anything other than info yielded by your role without reading anyone's minds though, that's the nature of the game. everything in this game is going to be speculation because there's always a chance someone is lying. i made some analysis into wagon composition and you pushed back on it by trying to suggest that we can't meaningfully deduce anything, which i am inclined to view as an attempt to shut down speculation.

ok, i’m sorry if that’s how i came across. the reason i responded the way i did was meant to open up speculation, because i felt like you were opening and closing the spec entirely in one post

you are welcome to do that tbh! i want to have a conversation about it, and you did bring up alternate worlds that i engaged with! but the whole, like, "you can't conclude that because it's possible it will turn out to be false" thing isn't really constructive and just has a chilling effect, which is why i pushed back on that. the thing about the mafia swinging last-minute rather than interacting with the thread as it develops is indeed something, but i just don't feel it's particularly likely (or at least, not likelier than these wagons being v/w), and it's more something to speculate about if it eventually happens rather than discrediting interpretations of the current situation because it could happen, it hink.

 

[mewtini]

it's a possibility but a far one from "had to have been planned out"

 

[kyeugh]

i read blu's claim as a response to keldeo's vote on him tbh. blu seems to feel like he has no one on his side/is at risk, so he was providing the information he had, i guess.

huh
he claimed during massclaim

oh! i thought he claimed after all that but i might be thinking that because that's when keldeo pulled it back up. i did not check and kinda don't want to search for it so i will take you at your word tbh

 

[qenya]

wow, ok, shit went down while I was offline

even if keldeo is a wolf, his logic's not wrong: there's no earthly way he and blu can possibly be v/v, so given we're in mylo it would be silly not to vote for one or the other

and the least towny of the two of them is obviously Keldeo, given the absurdity of saying "seer cover" was an attempt at foreshadowing his cat

I still think kyeugh and keldeo are likely to be w/w but it makes sense to go for the least uncertain of the two. at this point actual numbers are more important than PRs (if kyeugh even has a PR)

another thing that occurred to me while reading:

you're kind of missing the point in a big way here, which is that there is no reason for the mafia to concede a lynch of one of their own here when we're in mylo

why not though?

if we are in mylo now, then we will still be in mylo toMorrow if we haven't already lost

mafia can easily afford to lose one of their own if they don't feel confident in their ability to force a mislynch toDay

 

[Trebek]

i read blu's claim as a response to keldeo's vote on him tbh. blu seems to feel like he has no one on his side/is at risk, so he was providing the information he had, i guess.

huh
he claimed during massclaim

oh! i thought he claimed after all that but i might be thinking that because that's when keldeo pulled it back up. i did not check and kinda don't want to search for it so i will take you at your word tbh

yeah, i believe blu actually claimed vt first (and actually preluded to his vt claim at the end of yesterDay, which i responded to at the time bc i got what he was getting at)

 

[kyeugh]

why not though?

if we are in mylo now, then we will still be in mylo toMorrow if we haven't already lost

mafia can easily afford to lose one of their own if they don't feel confident in their ability to force a mislynch toDay

i don't think their odds really get better tomorrow when we have an additional flip to go on