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Fire and Ice Mafia

I was thinking on it more, and while 2 scum working independently of each other is an interesting idea, RNP did indicate there would be only basic roles, which implies a pretty basic setup, no frills. Realistically it's definitely either 1 scum or 2 scum, and personally I'm leaning way more into 1 scum solely because of the N0 kill. You guys touched on this, but in a 2 scum setup, we're now one bad kill away from lylo before we even had the chance to vote. If this was really a 2 scum setup, I find it hard to believe that a N0 kill (and correspondingly the hypothetical lylo we're in) would even be allowed. I know RNP said he can't guarantee balance in a game this size, but that just seems crazy favorable to scum; 1v5 setup seems town skewed at first, but in the hands of an experienced player (which almost all of us are), they could use the disparity to their advantage and hide among the crowd, so to speak. I'll even admit, it's still kinda town skewed, but at least not as blatantly scum skewed as 2v4. I understand there's a pascals bargain at play here where it's better not to take chances, but I'm still not entirely convinced that we're in 2v4, so I think firing at random is more likely to hurt town than help.
 
dunno, I think part of the wager is also that our failsafes may have already failed us. like, say we have two doctors -- assuming the best case scenario (they both target different townies), there's a whopping 50% chance that the mafia's not killing anyone. a single roleblocker in the setup has a ~16% chance (slightly less than the odds of Hydro Pump missing) of nailing the adequate mafioso and subsequently dragging them straight to task on the following day.

hell, as far as odds and statistics go, if we are in lylo, there's still a 33% chance of hitting mafia just by firing blind. and if all goes well, we may be able to do better than firing blind!

ultimately, also, being at lylo on day one doesn't sound that unreasonable when considering that like, it's a 6-player game. it's not going to last long no matter what
 
Yeah, not sure we can rule out two mafia like that right now. Like I said, I think we've often done six-person games with two mafia in the past, and while I don't think we ever did any statistics, I don't think it ever felt like it was too hard to win as town.
 
Either way, the benefit of voting someone out is probably worth the risk
If there's only 1 mafia and we vote out a townie, that would be bad but survivable
If there's 2 mafia and we abstain, we could lose on the spot
But I reckon guessing at random is...probably not ideal? So we may want to try and have some direction here. Ideally without giving away anyone's roles.
 
Fair enough, I guess. Unfortunately though if your plan is to vote me I won't be able to help you out on that front, lol
 
hmmm. I was hoping for more contributions of the scumhunting variety, but I guess you're as much on the up and up as anyone else now. Retracting vote, and if no one else's come up with anything else to press on by tomorrow morning I'll see what I can wring out.
 
Stryke said:
I went into this game with one objective and that was not to fall into the "Stryke isn't being active so he might be scum" pitfall for another game. We'll get em next time I guess
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hahahaha literally this was my thought when i saw you on the roster. I believe you king <3
 
fwiw i feel like you've already been more active than the last several games we've played in

unfortunately i also think it's NAI
 
mewtini said:
fwiw i feel like you've already been more active than the last several games we've played in

unfortunately i also think it's NAI
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I am pushing myself So Hard to be a valued contributor to this city. Brand new Stryke you're seeing it live here first.
 
Vote Count:
No valid votes have been cast.

Day 1 ends at 18:00 UTC on May 10th, 2024 (~5 hours from now).
 
y'know, I kinda feel like Mewtini would usually be solvier by now

I'm not like, brimming with faith on that read, but that's the best I've got and time is running short
 
ngl i don’t feel good about voting anyone and am also about to fall back asleep
 
Damn it's hard to be an active thoughtful contributor. Idk how you guys do it, I have a newfound respect

I don't have a real read on anyone right now. Best I got is like, a light scumlean on Dodge based on vibes, but it's also the first night of his first game, so I don't really want to put too much stock in that unless I really need to
 
i guess in a game this small its +ev to lynch though? idk.

i’m going back on what i said last night, i think stryke is actually now the only person i’m genuinely TRing — this kind of changes if there’s actually two wolves though; stryke is indeed someone who defaults to being quiet during games and i have also only really seen him become more vocal as town. granted i think everyone is also just excited to be here, but tbh if i’m stryke and i’m the only wolf, i am not going to be hypeposting. at least if there were two wolves that would maybe explain why he feels esp empowered to post? idk if this makes sense i truly am about to pass out again

i actually am going to say fuck jt and vote M&F, which feels cringe because it looks like a vindictive vote now, but it’s my main scumlean; the ask to massclaim felt kind of weird to me because it seemed like it was mostly spurred by the desire to preemptively explain whatever “suspicious” thing happened to her n0

i actually also felt vague things about dodge but i feel the same way as stryke in re actually voting there ;___;
 
maybe i’m projecting because i famously hate playing as scum unless i have a really supportive wolfteam that i feel bad abandoning by zeroposting
 
I won't vote on it quite yet, but I also lean ever so slightly towards M&F being mafia. It's hard to say whether spurring us to vote is a mafia thing to do, or if saying to abstain would be, but suggesting a massclaim and then going back on it so quick feels wrong
That said, the day IS almost over, so if we're gonna vote someone out we've gotta do it now. I'm just not sure at this point, and don't want to do something so decisive in the last hour of the vote
 
Dodge said:
I won't vote on it quite yet, but I also lean ever so slightly towards M&F being mafia. It's hard to say whether spurring us to vote is a mafia thing to do, or if saying to abstain would be, but suggesting a massclaim and then going back on it so quick feels wrong
That said, the day IS almost over, so if we're gonna vote someone out we've gotta do it now. I'm just not sure at this point, and don't want to do something so decisive in the last hour of the vote
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well ftr if you lean there and not on me, it currently stands at a 50/50 between mf or i dying
 
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