Forum Revival TV Tropes Mafia Revival - D7

[mewtini]

leans far against him being town.

against him being MAFIA jfc

 

[kyeugh]

i would rather not go for herbe tbh, i think it's a wasted lynch and he's way less likely to be scum than the other three ... in my mind he's confirmed harmless 3p and i don't think he has an agenda?

i disagree. i'm not really leaning scum on herbe per se but there's much more to be gleaned from his lynch than any of the inactives, and he is only "confirmed" insofar as you trust his word, which you're free to do but i don't think it's near enough to make him a wasted lynch.

 

[mewtini]

yeah i won't hard-resist a herbe lynch, i just don't really like it compared to flora/mist/seri. i also think that he's responded pretty like, blandly? whenever he's been vaguely pointed at in a way that feels not scum to me

i can try to explain it a bit better if you want in a bit. i'm a bit distracted rn

 

[Herbe]

i disagree. i'm not really leaning scum on herbe per se but there's much more to be gleaned from his lynch than any of the inactives

maybe this is dummy move on my part but i actually agree w kyeugh here O_O

i'm just vibing tbh

 

[Herbe]

with that said, i would Prefer not to be lynched...? thanks?

 

[kyeugh]

it's fine, i'm not really pushing for herbe right now. i just don't like the idea of preemptively writing him off as "basically confirmed" or "way less likely to be scum" or whatever because i don't think there's really solid grounds for that.

 

[mewtini]

sorry if i'm coming off combative or something tbh. i'd just rather push on like, anyone else, especially considering the ramifications of who MF did or didn't name in her posts (herbe did get mentioned by her, making me think that he really doesn't matter much in our current convo)

there's much more to be gleaned from his lynch than any of the inactives

also i think im just missing something. if he's third-party what would we learn from it? i'm honestly just seeing him as existing outside of the game at this point in time

 

[mewtini]

versus going after inactives, where i think (knock on wood) people who respond to that lynch notion like "yeah ok whatever" - which is where i'm at, up until one of them hopefully becomes active and gives us something to discuss for real - are going to show up much differently than those who try to hang onto/mildly protect 0-posters? idk if that makes sense

 

[mewtini]

also as i understand it mafia wins when they have majority over all players, including 3p? so wouldn't it hurt us if we slipped up there given how many townies are down :x

 

[kyeugh]

also i think im just missing something. if he's third-party what would we learn from it? i'm honestly just seeing him as existing outside of the game at this point in time

he's a lot more active than any of the other people i mentioned, so i'm not sure how his lynch wouldn't provide more information than someone who's been less involved no matter his flip. he definitely exists inside of the game far more than the others imo.

looking at the things mf has said has some value but i'm not sure i like the idea of putting off anyone she's mentioned, either; it assumes that she's mafia, that she's in-group mafia, and that she distances from her teammates by not mentioning them. a possibility to consider but again far from something i'd feel comfortable giving even a tentative lean based on.

 

[kyeugh]

dw, you're not really being combative, i just really don't think there's really a good reason herbe should be outside the list of people we're looking at. not fully comfortable going that direction, but not less comfortable with it than the others i've mentioned, and there isn't really anyone left that i'd be pleased to push on at this point anyway.

 

[mewtini]

my read on herbe isn't really based on MF's comments fwiw, i just don't really understand (maybe bc i haven't played before? idrk) why a 3p flip reveals anything. like. scum would be ambivalent and townies would respond based off of whether they liked him or not, right? i guess i just want more explanation on that front

it's less me being uncomfortable with it and more me thinking that time would be better spent on trying to dig up and follow other leads (up to and including herbe if people really want to talk about him). i also kind of think that herbe's already been pushed on so i feel like it won't look any different than it has in the last few days, though he can feel free to prove me wrong there.

i'm not really leaning scum on herbe per se

tl;dr if you don't think he's scum then can you talk more about the infoyield you'd expect? if you think he could be then i disagree but i'd def be less confused

i just don't want to start with him and imo devoting time towards it feels weird. i should probably spend time looking at other people's isos but that requires way more effort than talking about someone who i actually know about lol, more later i guess

 

[mewtini]

tl;dr if you don't think he's scum

would've been better phrased as "if you're not scumleaning"

 

[kyeugh]

there's just not really much to explain tbh. i just think herbe is basically null, so it's about as useful to watch him as it is the other people i feel null about. you seem not to think he's null for one reason or another but i disagree; i don't think he's remotely "confirmed" 3p, nor do i think he exists outside of the game. he's been a moderately active player, one wrapped up very intimately with a confirmed wolf, and one who a fair few people have found hard to place outside of nebulously good vibes. maybe a 3p flip wouldn't be extremely illuminating but the odds that he flips 3p are definitely not 100%.

but again, i'm not scum reading him. i just think he's on level with my other meh reads, like flora/serimachi/mist. i don't want it to seem like i'm laying the case for his scumminess right now, because i'm not, but there's just not really good reason in my view to brush him to the side entirely. simply taking his word for what was previously a fairly incriminating chain of events and then just leaving it there without another look seems weird to me, especially if we end up with no other strong leads to follow.

 

[Vipera Magnifica]

@Vipera Magnifica who'd you heal last night? c:

flipped a coin as per the plan and healed kokorico

I would much rather have killed M&F the fun way but I guess this will do

 

[Zori]

Night 4 Diary:
April 27, 10:36 PM - I feel really bad for not stopping the RNP wagon earlier
We always flip M&F D5

I'm going to go ahead and FoS the people that were on there
The non-voters (Mist, Flora, Stryke, Semirachi, Indigo) is just way too easy a gamesolve
I'm (after 2 minutes of looking at the vote history) going to FoS in particular Keldeo and kokoriko for wagon hopping
I think I'm going to sign off for tonight, more tomorrow ig

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April 28, 9:21 AM - Based on the Phoenix wagon comp, I'm going to say there's a chance I don't have a handle on how M&F treated his scumbuddies.

RedneckPhoenix (6) (Herbe, Mr. Ultracool, Vipera Magnifica, kokorico, kyeugh, mewtini)
M&F (5) (Keldeo, Ottercopter, Panini, Seshas, rari_teh)
No vote (14) (Flora, M&F, Stryke, serimachi, RedneckPhoenix, IndigoEmmy, Mist1422)

During rereading, I'm going to come out with a scumread on kokorico. As said in his own mechanical analysis, it's unlikely that he's a functional doctor. If kokorico is a wolf, it's probable Stryke is as well.
There's definitely a wolf on the Phoenix wagon, and according to my previous M&F spew, it can only be kokorico.

In a kokoriko/Stryke world, Stryke would still probably be a Nanobot Doctor, but he would be using it as an extra wolf KPN, intentionally trying to healclash.

I'm tinfoiling that Vipera/kokorico/Stryke is a big wolf theatre, but mechanically that's unlikely.

Herbe sheeping mewtini isn't the greatest look.

Panini probably isn't likely to be mafia, since their posts don't fit with the mafia agenda. Keldeo is probably town.
Note to self: Read EoD2 next.

-----
​

April 28, 12:59 PM - Rereading EoD. Panini visionary, Don't particularly like Keldeo pushing "They're both mafia" but he's still town from mechanics
My bets are on M&F surviving the night and Rari dying instead

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April 28, 3:03 PM - EoD2 Votecount:

Odie_Pie (9) (Eifie, Keldeo, Mawile, Negrek, Ottercopter, Panini, Stryke, kyeugh, mewtini)
Stryke (6) (Herbe, IndigoEmmy, M&F, Seshas, kokorico, rari_teh)
Panini (1) (Mist1422)
No vote (9) (Flora, serimachi, RedneckPhoenix, Vipera Magnifica, Mr. Ultracool, Odie_Pie)

Not so sure about Stryke here, but Occam's Razor on the JackPK debacle screams Wolf!Vipera who didn't know about out-group Mafia flipping Mafia. This fits with the EoD4 Votecount, but it means my M&F spewreads may have been wrong. In any case, this makes me believe that Stryke and kokorico are less likely to be scum together than I initially believed.

 

[mewtini]

especially if we end up with no other strong leads to follow.

yeah i was arguing against him being the *main* suspect more than anything else. i actually get your point a bit more now after reading your first paragraph, though; i think part of my read factors in his lack of experience, where i think he's acted pretty instinctively towny ...

maybe a 3p flip wouldn't be extremely illuminating but the odds that he flips 3p are definitely not 100%.

i also kind of thought you were saying it would be illuminating even if he flipped 3p, which is what i was confused about! ty for putting up with my qs tbh

 

[Zori]

TL;DR: I definitely regret missing EoD4
Vipera is surrounded with so much weirdness that Occam's Razor says that he's scum

 

[kyeugh]

@Seshas, where are you at right now? vm/koko w/w?

 

[kyeugh]

le ebin ninja has arrived