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Tarot Mafia

not really grasping the wagon rationale
mewtini i made the first jack vote post at what, 2 am my time, in the context of a post specifically about making myself more unpredictable. you know better than to use big words like "rationale" to describe my thoughts and actions

tl;dr it's really just a hunch. mf has her own reasons though im sure (not 100% clear on them, but let me get a good nights sleep before going in to analyse anything)

i'd say the jack wagon is more like.... a small wheelbarrow right now instead. it barely qualifies as a wagon dunnit?

i must admit i am far more relaxed in this game than any other so far - your suspicions are correct! Turns out I just needed more than a 72 hour break from mafia to clear my head.
 
@storm don't feel like you have to contribute in a certain way or like your contributions are less valid than others', post whatever and whenever you feel like posting :D

@kyeugh what makes you feel potentially "pocketed" by me and Butterfree?

@Trebek if I'm understanding you right, you don't think Jack deserves so much suspicion, right? Who would you vote up as a counterwagon to him?

anyways, let's see... for one thing, I can't say I dig jack's vibes so far. the mechspec's eh, but I'm sensing this colossal countertunnel on seshas for putting him on the spot and I daresay it's not the look of the season
@M&F Can you elaborate more on this? I didn't get the sense that Jack's suspicion on Seshas was either strong or "OMGUS"-y, but maybe I'm missing your point?

--

I'm sorry for not being here that much, I haven't really felt like playing mafia toDay. I'll try harder later if I can.

lol tone reads, but there are tonal things I like about mewtini, storm, and maybe Herbe.

MF is interesting to me because I feel like some reasons for stated townreads are flawed, but I want to sheep them anyway. To expand, she comes across to me as willing to be "bold" as either alignment, i.e. I don't think that she's done anything that would be too attention-grabbing to be mafia (like proposing the "policy lynch"), and I think the firmest conclusion she's drawn so far is SRing Jack. I think if she's mafia, Herbe is likely to be town based on

To expand on my earlier mention about koko, in the (imo likely) world that Mr. Ultracool is town, my instinct says it'd make sense for a mafia to have jumped on his claim. It seems like one of those offbeat things done by townies that mafia can easily push as suspicious. I dunno how strongly I believe in that instinct, I think it's possible that the mafia just weren't super active to immediately respond to Ultracool's claim, or they took a different route such as hedging / leaving options open about him.

In any case the two people who stuck out to me the most as "initially pushing Ultracool" to some extent were Jack and koko. I think the way Jack has been pushing things demonstrates that either we have different beliefs about what makes someone scummy or towny, which is by no means out of the question, or he is looking for things that "look bad" rather than things that are bad. I feel like reversing my earlier suspicion on koko for no real reason.

I think if Butterfree is mafia, she's TMIing at least one of Mist/Ultracool as not mafia. I have no opinion on her alignment.

Still dunno where to vote, guess I'm fine with Jack being wagoned, would definitely like to see updated thoughts from him when he gets a chance.
 
I think if [MF is] mafia, Herbe is likely to be town based on the "right for the wrong reasons" line in #246
sentence was incomplete because I thought harder about the initial read and realized it (an underlying assumption that Herbe has real reasons for the vote) was maybe too far of a stretch given this evidence, but forgot to actually delete it
 
Also am well aware that town can be wrong / jump on "things that look bad," as another point I'm considering re: Jack/kokorico.

In a vacuum, Mr. Ultracool's alignment almost doesn't matter for that read because it is a fairly easy way to distance, especially if someone knows the shady thing is in fact not legit but is being defended anyway. This is complicated by people (among them e.g. kokorico) pushing for him not to be visited - I would actually think these people are not knowingly mafia partners with him, because I assume Mr. U's gambit as mafia would be as like a paranoid gun owner trying to get visited or something.

haven't really taken in the last few pages yet, but here's a thing I've been compiling and hopefully it's useful to someone else as well

View attachment 670
You vastly overstate my certainty. I think he's likely to be telling the truth, but right now I feel like the truth value of his claim doesn't actually matter as much as the fact that I would oppose voting him today, because if he's lying, I think it'll become apparent pretty soon. I imagine that any exaggeration resulted from you positioning our views as opposites in a cute way, though, which I appreciate.

idk how I feel about people visiting him, I guess I think people should do what they want.

How has this compilation been useful to you?
 
Oh yeah my Seshas read is pretty similar to what it was in my post ~70 / founded on the same basic traits... I don't doubt they're capable as mafia.

I also don't feel like they've been pushing a specific agenda or something like that. Though I also feel like the great majority of people have not, so far.
 
I should clarify that the policy lynch idea was less "eh, he's probably town but we should get rid of him anyway" and more "I don't know what to make of all this yet, but there might be a good reason to lynch either way". in retrospect, though, that sort of thinking's just kind of lazy, ahah. I'm glad we have a better idea now, although it's not really going to be a lot of value if everyone's not on board. which isn't me pressuring everyone to be on board, anyway, although it does mean I should either convince everyone to be on board or drop it

keldeo's objection was that, if we just leave the mafia be on that matter, we're potentially just convincing them to waste their power roles on something of relatively little use, right? thing is, the same goes for town. if we have a cop, is it better for them to have more useful checks or a gun? if we have a doc, is it better for them to stay after probable mob targets -- as opposed to someone they have little incentive to kill right now -- or a gun? I'd argue that the watcher plan is the most value we can really get out of this situation without putting people at risk of running afoul of a mob bomb or something nastier.

(I'm liberally summarizing the potential benefits here as "a gun" because, like, that's the only one I can think of and which has been brought up so far. I'm wondering though, would it be beneficial for mr ultracool to actually claim what the potential benefits for visitors is? assuming truthfulness, he's already overshared a lot so far, and it might be better for everyone if we know what the mob is potentially getting out of this if they take the bait; at the same time, it's possible that some of the benefits would work best against the mob if they don't see it coming. hmmmmmmmm.)

as for jack, a lot of people have been saying that I'm overestimating the extent of Jack's FOS on Seshas, so I went to have a doublecheck about whether I was seeing things and... I gotta admit, I could swear I saw some more overt posts that just aren't there now. if I gave myself that impression, though, it must've been because Jack's read struck me as more of a blatant OMGUS (that's what the term was, thanks keldeo) than it might have other people, so, I tried to reverse engineer whatever rationale skipped my consciousness there, and I have it now. I think I just found his reasoning for suspecting Seshas highly unconvincing, and it tripped red flags when it was coming on the heels of Seshas himself being one of the most vocal "mechspec is for scum" people

I'd rather lynch on something stronger, anyway, but I was already going to say I don't really intend for the votes on Jack to turn into a bandwagon; we still have a lot of discussing to do. we do, however, need at least two even vaguely good votes on someone -- even if that someone is, barf, the abstain bin -- in case mist doesn't come back in time to uncast that meme vote from earlier,

lastly, @mewtini, I gotta at least say for myself, this is more like my usual game looks like -- I'm an aggressive player. Eifie even noticed that part of me wasn't quite as there as usual back in tvt (although again, I'm positive this has a lot less to do with my alignment than with the fact that my head is above the water this time). hate to bring the mood down for ya, but one's gotta play to their understanding of the game, I suppose. (although the amount of jokes I've made at your expense so far might not've helped, so apologies if I've been getting carried away with the horseplay,)
 
Oh that’s a good point, yeah I think if your PR is worth more used elsewhere than A Gun you should definitely not target Mr. Ultracool regardless of how much you believe him. And that’s... probably true of most to all PRs?

I think Mr. Ultracool has claimed some of the possibilities to be A Gun, a one-shot alignment cop, double vote, and one-shot heal. I’m not really sure why he said you have to message the host to get your vote doubled, though, that seems kinda ??

Agree that Jack’s reasoning for suspecting Seshas was somewhat insubstantial, though I know I should give allowances for it being early. MF I take it that you’re townreading Seshas?
 
ah, I see; I failed to recall that direct claim but we were talking about doublevoting earlier in the thread, weren't we. ... and I suppose the one-shot copping isn't useful for mafia, and the one-shot heal is situational at best, but damn, the remaining powers are potentially really good for mafia; both of them can instantly force a LYLO to go awry if they're sitting on even just one. that is worrisome,

my read on seshas is... null right now; like, naturally he's very likely to be town if jack is mafia, but if I'm wrong about jack, then I don't think I'll have anything on seshas without observing for longer
 
Ah - do you have any other notable reads then, MF?

I’d definitely be interested in more perspectives on Jack because he’s been here and trying and readable, and I think to an extent I’m talking myself into / nodding along with MF’s read because I dislike my own reads and want to follow something lol.

I may miss deadline if I oversleep, but will try not to
 
(I'm liberally summarizing the potential benefits here as "a gun" because, like, that's the only one I can think of and which has been brought up so far. I'm wondering though, would it be beneficial for mr ultracool to actually claim what the potential benefits for visitors is?
I did, actually. It's one-use Cops/Wands, Docs/Cups, Vigilantes/Swords and Doublevotes/Pentacles.
 
Wolf Keldeo implies that M&F's reads are wrong
(I'm leaning towards V!Keldeo but ig we'll see how that shakes out later because my read is on stuff I'm sure Keldeo is capable of faking)

who to vote, who to vote
 
Ah - do you have any other notable reads then, MF?

I’d definitely be interested in more perspectives on Jack because he’s been here and trying and readable, and I think to an extent I’m talking myself into / nodding along with MF’s read because I dislike my own reads and want to follow something lol.

I may miss deadline if I oversleep, but will try not to
alas, I don't; I already normally focus on quality over quantity for my reads, and it's D1, and a lot of people still aren't posting... although jack did sad-react to my post voting him, so now I can't help but want to let him live for at least another couple phases, even if that'd not necessarily be good play-

we do still need to do something, even if that ends up being abstention or inactive lynching. so hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
 
Preliminary Reads:
Good
[Seshas]

Cool
[M&F/kokorico]

Wooloo
[Mist1422/storm/Mr. Ultracool]
[Herbe]

Weh
[mewtini/Keldeo]
[Stryke/JackPK/Trebek]

Ech
[kyeugh]
[IndigoEmmy/Butterfree/RedneckPhoenix/Zero Moment]

weh
 
How has this compilation been useful to you?
It's not really yet, but I'm hoping that when we have some more flips it will be possible to pick out patterns. (I'm also paying a little bit of attention to, e.g., who is coming up with their own opinion and who's just saying "I agree with so-and-so", but I don't think that's going to come to anything today.)

I’m not really sure why he said you have to message the host to get your vote doubled, though, that seems kinda ??
If it's one-shot like the other items, presumably the point is to let the person choose which day to use it on.
 
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