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Tarot Mafia

btw as of right now i kinda think i'm leaning towards seshas being the mafia kill, if only because i want to believe town vig doesn't go for a claimed PR that a few people thought seemed likely to be true (keldeo/skylar bought it, i mentioned that i'd noticed a softclaim) and because i think mafia would conceivably be scared of seshas having a PR like that since she's a good player
 
kyeugh said:
do you know if there’s a difference between your swords and guns?
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My Swords can be used at Night to kill people. What are Guns supposed to do, again? Iirc they kill during the Day, but I've been wrong about that one already, sooo
 
M&F said:
at least, now we know exactly why rari_teh bit it first
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how does this connect to trebek for you?

i'll read/think harder about ultracool talk in a bit, i can't believe i've finally managed to catch up for the most part lol
 
Mr. Ultracool said:
Turns out, I'm really, really dense right now not to notice that. My Swords/Guns kill people at night, not in the day like on some other forums I frequent. That would explain the second kill, if the Mafia visited me yesterDay, sooo... Whoops?
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Townie visiting you and aiming wrong would also explain the second kill

mewtini said:
JackPK said:
Wagonomics analysis on Trebek vs. Seshas (abbreviated T and S, parentheses are total number of votes on respective wagons at that moment, interesting votes bolded): +Mist S (0-1), -Mist S (0-0), +Seshas T (1-0), +M&F T (2-0), +kyeugh S (2-1), +mewtini S (2-2), +Keldeo T (3-2), +me S (3-3), +mewtini T (4-2), +Trebek S (4-3), +kyeugh T (5-2), -me S (5-1), +Seshas S (4-2)

Basically to explain why I find those votes interesting: mewtini and kyeugh's votes, in combination, shifted the vote from a tie or near-tie to a Trebek blowout, so that makes me townread them
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@JackPK what makes you think skylar's late vote is more likely to be town than, say, mafia gaining cred upon realizing that their scumbuddy was going down? i'm also curious to hear more about your progression on seshas/trebek during EoD!
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At the moment the vote was 4-3 and idk, I think that seems to close for mafia to abruptly give up on their scumbuddy. Maybe kyeugh would play differently than me but if I was mafia and was in that particular position, I definitely would not have jumped ship at that moment

clarify on what you're asking about "my progression" pls? I can go through my thought process in my vote in more detail if that's what you want, but I have not yet had the time/energy/stamina to go through and make any actual analysis or reads of other people yet
 
JackPK said:
Townie visiting you and aiming wrong would also explain the second kill
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So, uhm, maybe that townie should reveal themselves to have shot? It wouldn't tell too much about their role, imo, but would perhaps prove useful in determining stuff about the setup?
 
JackPK said:
At the moment the vote was 4-3 and idk, I think that seems to close for mafia to abruptly give up on their scumbuddy. Maybe kyeugh would play differently than me but if I was mafia and was in that particular position, I definitely would not have jumped ship at that moment
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her vote came 2 minutes before EoD, so i don't think it's really 'jumping ship' since trebek was 99% a goner. i see what you're saying though.
fwiw skylar is also kind of a busser but i don't even think this is bussing seeing as her vote didn't really make a difference (which is sort of why i'm reluctant to townread it)
JackPK said:
clarify on what you're asking about "my progression" pls? I can go through my thought process in my vote in more detail if that's what you want,
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that's all i'm wondering about!
 
ksuhrgishg I was about to log into destiny 2 and check out the updated content when I got tagged. alas!!

you would only be able to use an item you received in the following days/nights, not on the same one, right? so if mafia did visit ultracool and used a... sword, it seems like, it would have to be from night 0 and not this last night? but that could account for the extra death

I am... not sure where I'm leaning on which faction killed who, it seems it could really go either(? if it was a vigilante and not mafia with an extra kill?) way, and the arguments I've seen so far seem like it's mostly up to playstyle and whether going after seshas would be a worthy risk or not
 
well. ok, i will adjust that statement: if no one does speak up by the time everyone's posted in the thread toDay, i will be pretty sure the second kill was not from a townie who'd picked up a gun/sword from uc, as claiming in that case would pretty much be a net positive (since it would explain the events of last night and corroborate uc's claim without necessarily revealing the claimant's role)
 
kyeugh said:
well. ok, i will adjust that statement: if no one does speak up by the time everyone's posted in the thread toDay, i will be pretty sure the second kill was not from a townie who'd picked up a gun/sword from uc, as claiming in that case would pretty much be a net positive (since it would explain the events of last night and corroborate uc's claim without necessarily revealing the claimant's role)
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addendum: mafia could easily make such a claim, lmao. so i won't be immediately townreading anyone who claims to have made the shot or w/e, but i think if no one says anything it probably suggests that the shot did not come from one of uc's items (?)
 
mewtini said:
JackPK said:
At the moment the vote was 4-3 and idk, I think that seems to close for mafia to abruptly give up on their scumbuddy. Maybe kyeugh would play differently than me but if I was mafia and was in that particular position, I definitely would not have jumped ship at that moment
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her vote came 2 minutes before EoD, so i don't think it's really 'jumping ship' since trebek was 99% a goner. i see what you're saying though.
fwiw skylar is also kind of a busser but i don't even think this is bussing seeing as her vote didn't really make a difference (which is sort of why i'm reluctant to townread it)
JackPK said:
clarify on what you're asking about "my progression" pls? I can go through my thought process in my vote in more detail if that's what you want,
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that's all i'm wondering about!
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ah makes sense! I wasn't looking back at timestamps, just looking at the raw list of votes

I slept in too late and spent way too much time playing catch-up trying to ISO all the wagons, and ultimately came out of that process with virtually no reads. so I was stressed at EOD trying to figure out where to put my vote, and (prior to Seshas' claim) I ended up putting it on Seshas bc their method of analysis confuses me, so I figured voting to remove that cause of confusion would be the least bad option out of a bunch of options that I had no reads on

then Seshas claimed to be watcher and to have targeted kyeugh n0 and gotten no result, so I hurriedly asked kyeugh if that raised any red flags, and when she said it didn't, I went "oh fuck" and unvoted (at that point things were so frantic that I had no idea what the vote count was, I just wanted to make sure my vote wasn't going to be the potential difference between a Seshas yeet and a tie)

then less than a minute later, as I was trying to figure out where else I wanted to put my vote, the day phase ended before I could decide where to place it.
 
RedneckPhoenix said:
herbe's in this game?
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quelle surprise!

yeah i am and unfortunatly i slept through eod again the other day. Y'all know how fucking glad I am that Jack didn't get yeeted? literally i woke up and realised i missed it and i was like "oh god oh fuck i really hope we didnt yeet jack."

fuck my hunches man. Anyway, jack can vibe for now, i trust him more after seeing him in more of the game
 
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