Blank Canvas Mafia Game Thread

[DarkAura]

I think that's probable, even just statistically, that some or all mafia have been hanging back. I still don't trust Dodge's actions, but if we're at MYLO and it's safer to shoot for someone else, I won't push for Dodge now :V

 

[Eifie]

I think that's probable, even just statistically, that some or all mafia have been hanging back. I still don't trust Dodge's actions, but if we're at MYLO and it's safer to shoot for someone else, I won't push for Dodge now :V

anyone you do think we should go for?

 

[Eifie]

or alternatively, anyone you think should definitely not be voted?

 

[DarkAura]

not Butterfree, clearly. I've been pretty sold on you and Keldeo specifically as townies since last day phase, and I don't have much reason not to trust whatever information you have on Butterfree.

I haven't checked either of their ISOs recently so I could be missing things, but Ever and kyeugh both feel fine to me. Or like, nothing stands out to me and I remember seeing them post reliably often.

MF and xrunner then?? I guess???

 

[Butterfree]

Allll right, apologies, I've had a lot to attend to today and still need to finish packing, but I should, uh. Try to contribute while I actually can.

Eifie's reasoning broadly makes sense to me... I think I do buy her reasoning for Dodge not being plausibly associated with MF given how MF's actions played out yesterday, in particular. This means I need to actually do that MF reread, doesn't it.

 

[MF the ISOable]

so firstly, let me put it on the record that I am very much not taking Eifie's claimed mechinfo here at face value. that's not a request for additional information about it, in any case; that'd be of little use both if the claim is false and if it isn't. in any case, MYLO is a fine time to close ranks with a short-term gambit like that. and y'know, I hope everyone who's following her lead past her pretty much sealing in both of our erroneous elims has a better reason for it than "iunno, she just sounds towney"

now that said, I have rationale that goes against my gut on that matter. I've been a bit curious about the de facto functioning of those doodles -- surely Ephemera doesn't just let you do whatever you want with them even if you were able to nail it down perfect with a doodle, right? and exploiting them for free doccing strikes me as right on the upper lip of what's a reasonable kind of thing to be able to get from it (especially if one were exploiting them for multiple doccing actions -- as seems to have been attempted for last Night -- and if you could theorically healerclash-proof your doodles if you felt you could get away with that).

because the thing I'm thinking about it, is -- I have a theory that Keldeo might have died last night because of the doodle. or, to be more precise, one of a handful of scenarios such as:
-Eifie was targeted by the nightkill, but per the doodle, Keldeo successfully protected her -- however, Ephemera also literal-genie'd it as not a doc heal, but a bodyguarding; ie, Keldeo protected her by taking the kill instead
-Keldeo's death resulted from some arcane interaction between the Keldeo-protects-Eifie doodle and the Keldeo-and-Eifie-argue doodle
and see, in both scenarios above, and in probably just about any I can think of, the conclusion you get from it is that Eifie is probably just town, and Keldeo dying last Night wasn't her intention, but an either uninentional or orchestrated result of the way the doodle shook out.

now, unless any of the other claimed doodlers pops up to counterclaim DarkAura, she apparently drew the most plainly benign-looking part of last Night's doodle, thus also making her an extremely likely innocent

therefore: if Eifie and DarkAura are both clear as a result of this speculation; Butterfree is clear as a result of Eifie's claim; and I'm clear because I know I am (sorry, I'm the one driving this particular train of thought) -- that narrows us a nice bit down, to just Dodge, Ever, kyeugh and xrunner48.

anyway, I've got more pieces to put together before I can take a solid stab at narrowing things down from there, but since I am already running a bit late just with this, it's probably better I post all that now and see if anyone has something to add while I chase other leads and sticking points down; I have a feeling there won't be much so, since so far I'm pretty much just providing reasoning for sheeping where everyone else's already been comfortable sheeping, but eh

 

[MF the ISOable]

(if someone can remind me who else has claimed doodler so far and is still alive, that might speed things up a little. Dodge was one of them, right?)

 

[Eifie]

so firstly, let me put it on the record that I am very much not taking Eifie's claimed mechinfo here at face value. that's not a request for additional information about it, in any case; that'd be of little use both if the claim is false and if it isn't. in any case, MYLO is a fine time to close ranks with a short-term gambit like that. and y'know, I hope everyone who's following her lead past her pretty much sealing in both of our erroneous elims has a better reason for it than "iunno, she just sounds towney"

now that said, I have rationale that goes against my gut on that matter. I've been a bit curious about the de facto functioning of those doodles -- surely Ephemera doesn't just let you do whatever you want with them even if you were able to nail it down perfect with a doodle, right? and exploiting them for free doccing strikes me as right on the upper lip of what's a reasonable kind of thing to be able to get from it (especially if one were exploiting them for multiple doccing actions -- as seems to have been attempted for last Night -- and if you could theorically healerclash-proof your doodles if you felt you could get away with that).

because the thing I'm thinking about it, is -- I have a theory that Keldeo might have died last night because of the doodle. or, to be more precise, one of a handful of scenarios such as:
-Eifie was targeted by the nightkill, but per the doodle, Keldeo successfully protected her -- however, Ephemera also literal-genie'd it as not a doc heal, but a bodyguarding; ie, Keldeo protected her by taking the kill instead
-Keldeo's death resulted from some arcane interaction between the Keldeo-protects-Eifie doodle and the Keldeo-and-Eifie-argue doodle
and see, in both scenarios above, and in probably just about any I can think of, the conclusion you get from it is that Eifie is probably just town, and Keldeo dying last Night wasn't her intention, but an either uninentional or orchestrated result of the way the doodle shook out.

now, unless any of the other claimed doodlers pops up to counterclaim DarkAura, she apparently drew the most plainly benign-looking part of last Night's doodle, thus also making her an extremely likely innocent

therefore: if Eifie and DarkAura are both clear as a result of this speculation; Butterfree is clear as a result of Eifie's claim; and I'm clear because I know I am (sorry, I'm the one driving this particular train of thought) -- that narrows us a nice bit down, to just Dodge, Ever, kyeugh and xrunner48.

anyway, I've got more pieces to put together before I can take a solid stab at narrowing things down from there, but since I am already running a bit late just with this, it's probably better I post all that now and see if anyone has something to add while I chase other leads and sticking points down; I have a feeling there won't be much so, since so far I'm pretty much just providing reasoning for sheeping where everyone else's already been comfortable sheeping, but eh

if it helps, I knew Butterfree was town yesterday and that's why I kind of insisted the wagons on d1 were both town (see discussion at the beginning of d2) and even mentioned at some point that I hadn't wanted to answer the question of why I thought so.

I was thinking that it would be sooo iconic if Keldeo died saving me, but, I don't think the mafia would target me after having seen that doodle? there'd be a pretty good chance of them just wasting a night, right. (also, whose intention are you talking about there? DarkAura's?)

I don't really agree that DarkAura drawing Keldeo protecting me makes her very likely innocent. what kinds of things do you think the mafia would be drawing?

and yeah, re: your next post, the living claimed doodlers are DarkAura and Dodge.

 

[MF the ISOable]

if it helps, I knew Butterfree was town yesterday and that's why I kind of insisted the wagons on d1 were both town (see discussion at the beginning of d2) and even mentioned at some point that I hadn't wanted to answer the question of why I thought so.

I was thinking that it would be sooo iconic if Keldeo died saving me, but, I don't think the mafia would target me after having seen that doodle? there'd be a pretty good chance of them just wasting a night, right. (also, whose intention are you talking about there? DarkAura's?)

I don't really agree that DarkAura drawing Keldeo protecting me makes her very likely innocent. what kinds of things do you think the mafia would be drawing?

and yeah, re: your next post, the living claimed doodlers are DarkAura and Dodge.

I'll keep it in mind in case it helps me reason anything else out, at least. (also to note that, if you're telling the truth, I must've slightly gotten a bit on your nerves yesterDay, but really when am I not wittingly or otherwise doing that-)

and hmmm, right, the doodle does come out in the middle of the night while actions aren't locked in yet, doesn't it? or at least that seems to be the case anyway, but I was a bit turned around about when everything's timed. and I suppose you're also right that drawing someone getting protected who you don't plan on targeting would be a good false flag to do as a scum doodler, although my first assumption would've been that mafia would be trying to steer the drawing towards as much negative utility for Town as possible

and gotcha, thanks; I could've sworn all three had claimed, but if one of them is still in the wild at this point, that changes the potential angles of attack a bit

 

[Butterfree]

Hmmmmm, reread MF and then came back to this and I'm feeling some kind of way about the total breakneck reversal in her reasoning today? Yesterday her main conclusion was

so, going into toDay, I think the most concrete scumteam I have is Butterfree and one of Keldeo and Eifie; at least, that's what I get assuming that every member of the scumteam has been one of the more engaged players and not one of the ones that skated around doing not much and being generally illegible

which is to say:
- she thinks I'm mafia
- she also thinks either Keldeo or Eifie is mafia
- she's focusing on the idea of the scumteam being active and engaged

But today, while she prefaces it by warning against taking Eifie's mech info at face value, she goes right into speculating that the doodle means Eifie is town and so am I, and therefore the mafia is probably among four people who have been less engaged, basically without comment. The doodle speculation strikes me as kind of convoluted/motivated in the first place - like, wouldn't Occam's razor here say that Keldeo was just targeted by the mafia? Speculating that instead he died because of the canvas and therefore Eifie is town does not really sound like the reasoning of someone who yesterday thought Eifie was likely mafia. Can you illuminate your progression on this at all, MF?

 

[Butterfree]

I need to finish packing and get to bed, but I'll try to come back on my phone at the airports and place a final vote before I get on the plane to Japan, since EoD will be before I land.