Dies Twice Mafia - Game Thread

[mewtini]

i guess i was kind of thinking that a vig wouldn’t have abstained n2 which is dumb because a) i probably would’ve abstained as vig lol and b) holstering actually does help build towncore in that case …? because town isn’t punished by losing anyone from discussion

no fair. you guys always get that for free anyway. why couldn’t i get shot ?

hahaha

you’re always town in my heart don’t even worry <3

 

[mewtini]

sorry, *n1

 

[kyeugh]

i was thinking that i’m not as locked in on butterfree as you but i lowkey forgot she got shot lol. with that in mind yeah it is kind of difficult to imagine a world where she is mafia right now. im not sure that makes me confident in copying her reads uncritically but i dont know where pressure could possibly be better applied than on rp right now.

that said where is everyone else rn.

 

[mewtini]

i wasn’t locked in on her until she started going after rnp, i feel like that was way more towny conviction than a wolf going beast mode. and then i remembered she got shot. i’m not trying to copy her reads, hence me asking her if it was a vibes or mech vote, but if i assume she’s town then i also assume there’s a real nonfictional reason she’s certain that keith is wolf

 

[mewtini]

and idk if you saw that she specified it wasn’t a vibes vote

 

[kyeugh]

i dont know where pressure could possibly be better applied than on rp right now.

* rnp. also by “pressure” what i really mean is i want to see his flip i guess.

 

[mewtini]

wait we literally can’t even place votes yet i forgot

 

[kyeugh]

i wasn’t locked in on her until she started going after rnp, i feel like that was way more towny conviction than a wolf going beast mode. and then i remembered she got shot. i’m not trying to copy her reads, hence me asking her if it was a vibes or mech vote, but if i assume she’s town then i also assume there’s a real nonfictional reason she’s certain that keith is wolf

ah sorry i didn’t mean to suggest you were copying blindly. i think your read makes sense. i agree bfree’s push on rnp feels townier than not but i also think she can be a beast mode wolf so if not for the shot i would probably maintain a bit more suspicion. i feel like i get burned too often for trusting bfree too easily.

 

[kyeugh]

i cant wait to find out postgame that bfree was scum and the mafia actually got blocked n0 and the shot was from a vig.

 

[mewtini]

i wasn’t locked in on her until she started going after rnp, i feel like that was way more towny conviction than a wolf going beast mode. and then i remembered she got shot. i’m not trying to copy her reads, hence me asking her if it was a vibes or mech vote, but if i assume she’s town then i also assume there’s a real nonfictional reason she’s certain that keith is wolf

ah sorry i didn’t mean to suggest you were copying blindly. i think your read makes sense. i agree bfree’s push on rnp feels townier than not but i also think she can be a beast mode wolf so if not for the shot i would probably maintain a bit more suspicion. i feel like i get burned too often for trusting bfree too easily.

agree but as wolf her push would’ve come out of literally nowhere, right?

 

[mewtini]

maybe i’m too naive lol

 

[Stryke]

unless theres other killing powers. with this many lives in the game that feels probable to me? its only been two nights might be just no one except mafia has fired yet

There's no doubt in my mind there's a vig or two in this setup. My thinking was more like that we don't know who the mafia could be (shocking information, i'm aware) but they know who town is, so they would be able to pick off townie lives more quickly than we could vig theirs, so that when we get to mid/late game having 2 lives could be kind of a red flag.

Now that I'm thinking critically (rare event) about it though this would probably take a while to get to this stage and it would be pretty probable to vig at least one or two scum lives off just through educated guesses by that point, so. Perhaps this is not the case

 

[RNP]

i'm gonna be honest i have no idea what to do in this situation. like i know i'm not mafia but i also don't think scum!butterfree would self-target n0 just for shits and giggles so i can only assume there's some information-scrambling role at play here.

i guess i can iterate on why i was worried about taking too many lives at random - i have a role that doesn't do anything until i lose a life, at which point it becomes much more dangerous. i can only assume other rolecards are structured like this, and mafia has a similar unlock requirement for their stronger abilities

 

[kyeugh]

i wasn’t locked in on her until she started going after rnp, i feel like that was way more towny conviction than a wolf going beast mode. and then i remembered she got shot. i’m not trying to copy her reads, hence me asking her if it was a vibes or mech vote, but if i assume she’s town then i also assume there’s a real nonfictional reason she’s certain that keith is wolf

ah sorry i didn’t mean to suggest you were copying blindly. i think your read makes sense. i agree bfree’s push on rnp feels townier than not but i also think she can be a beast mode wolf so if not for the shot i would probably maintain a bit more suspicion. i feel like i get burned too often for trusting bfree too easily.

agree but as wolf her push would’ve come out of literally nowhere, right?

maybe, maybe not—we don’t have great insight into what kind of information the mafia has, so it’s hard to say. but tbh no use speculating about it at this point imo

i guess i can iterate on why i was worried about taking too many lives at random - i have a role that doesn't do anything until i lose a life, at which point it becomes much more dangerous. i can only assume other rolecards are structured like this, and mafia has a similar unlock requirement for their stronger abilities

thats good to know. thanks. you may be right about there being some info scrambling at play, but unfortunately i just don’t know if there’s a good way to know short of resolving some flips.

that said… i know i said before that i felt like bfree might survive the night if rnp is mafia, but the more i think about it the less sure i am about that. i suppose my thinking was that voting today will only take a life off keith, and killing bfree in the night would more or less hard confirm that rnp is mafia, which to my mind seems like an unworthy trade—one townie for one mafia isn’t an awesome exchange rate.

but if bfree has some kind of power or insight that has led her to correctly* determine that rnp is mafia, maybe they won’t take the risk of letting her do it again. ESPECIALLY if she’s right about stryke.

so idk. i don’t want to push butterfree to reveal anything she isn’t ready to, but i would like to renege a bit on my pushback yesterday if she agrees that this night might be precarious for her.

 

[Butterfree]

Yeah, hrmmm... Yesterday I figured I'd gamble on mafia preferring to keep me around because I was catching some heat, which paid off. I figured might as well stay vague to start with and see how people reacted, but ultimately I do think at least now it's pretty likely I will be killed, especially since it'd now be obvious that I'm not just a role with some kind of information to give but someone with information that can reveal alignment, and it seems like everyone's pretty much in agreement that I'm probably town now so it's probably no longer going to be useful to keep me around.

So yes, I'm cop, and I have an actual redcheck on RNP. Specifically, I have a power called "File Accounts", which lets me target a player but has no immediate effect, and then once I'd used up my first life, I gained an additional passive power "Receipts", which at the end of the night will show me the alignment of a player I have previously targeted with File Accounts, in the order in which I targeted them (this power is specified to be unblockable). First night, I filed accounts on mewtini, and since I lost my first life that night, I got back a town result on her immediately. Last night, I filed accounts on RNP and got back mafia.

My results specify who the result is for in the flavor, which makes me less inclined to think there's any sort of redirection likely to be involved; then that would have to be actively misleading result text, and it seems at least like a vaguely funny GM choice to expressly go for that if it isn't in fact going to be accurate.

I wouldn't be surprised if a vig existed but could only shoot after losing one life, or something of the like, although it does seem a little skewed setup-wise if everyone who gets shot for the first few nights really is just basically cleared unless the mafia catches on and chooses to sacrifice some of their lives. Hmmmmm.

 

[kyeugh]

nice. this is all great to know. thanks for sharing it.

My results specify who the result is for in the flavor, which makes me less inclined to think there's any sort of redirection likely to be involved; then that would have to be actively misleading result text, and it seems at least like a vaguely funny GM choice to expressly go for that if it isn't in fact going to be accurate.

i'm not totally sold on this - i would be kind of surprised if the converse was true and the GM revealed to you that your results had been scrambled through flavor text. to me, getting misleading flavor feels consistent with getting a misleading result. regardless, though, i think it's worthwhile to flip rnp as soon as we can.

I wouldn't be surprised if a vig existed but could only shoot after losing one life, or something of the like, although it does seem a little skewed setup-wise if everyone who gets shot for the first few nights really is just basically cleared unless the mafia catches on and chooses to sacrifice some of their lives. Hmmmmm.

i essentially agree with this assessment. i don't think it's beyond the pale that this setup is a little bit wonky though.

 

[Butterfree]

i'm not totally sold on this - i would be kind of surprised if the converse was true and the GM revealed to you that your results had been scrambled through flavor text. to me, getting misleading flavor feels consistent with getting a misleading result. regardless, though, i think it's worthwhile to flip rnp as soon as we can.

Well, specifically, I would usually expect in a game where the results might be scrambled that they would simply not mention who is being examined - instead, they'd just return a result, and it's the player who has to make an assumption when they connect that result to the person they actually targeted. So the choice to not go for simply giving a result, but explicitly giving a name, was noteworthy to me. Not saying it's impossible they could still be scrambled and misleading, but it does make me less inclined to think so.

 

[mewtini]

i'm gonna be honest i have no idea what to do in this situation. like i know i'm not mafia but i also don't think scum!butterfree would self-target n0 just for shits and giggles so i can only assume there's some information-scrambling role at play here.

i guess i can iterate on why i was worried about taking too many lives at random - i have a role that doesn't do anything until i lose a life, at which point it becomes much more dangerous. i can only assume other rolecards are structured like this, and mafia has a similar unlock requirement for their stronger abilities

i kind of feel like i would expect w!rnp to start lolcatting in this position but i agree with you all that this is probably the highest +ev flip right now

also, tbh, i had the exact same thought he mentioned in the second paragraph

 

[M&F]

Noon has started. 48 hours for voting.

 

[Novae]

i dont really see wolf rnp lolcatting here? especially with the double lives gimmick

if anything i would be concerned that wolves have some way to mess with investigations given how powerful of an investigative bfree's claim seems to be