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Forum Revival TV Tropes Mafia Revival - D7

Hi! Didn't notice Day 2 had started--figured it'd be in another thread.

Um, how do you guys find so much to speculate about? :ROFLMAO: I mean literally dozens of pages worth of speculation! I still feel like there's very little evidence of anything right now. We have some hints of people with powers who are probably not Mafia, but that's as solid as I feel about anything (and even that could just be trickery).

I mean, I'm aware that I'm really inexperienced and the fact that I feel like we have very little to go on is probably just a consequence of that. But I just find it all very tough to follow.
Why hello there! Good to see you around! :)
I'm curious, how closely have you been following the thread?
 
Hi! Didn't notice Day 2 had started--figured it'd be in another thread.

Um, how do you guys find so much to speculate about? :ROFLMAO: I mean literally dozens of pages worth of speculation! I still feel like there's very little evidence of anything right now. We have some hints of people with powers who are probably not Mafia, but that's as solid as I feel about anything (and even that could just be trickery).

I mean, I'm aware that I'm really inexperienced and the fact that I feel like we have very little to go on is probably just a consequence of that. But I just find it all very tough to follow.
evidence doesn’t really come from nowhere, so the best thing to do is talk about whatever you can, even if it’s something small, and go from the reactions/dialogue that produces. it’s v understandable if you can’t keep pace with this giant thread, but do you have any thoughts at all to offer mayhaps? who are you talking about when you mention non-mafia powers?
 
won’t be around a lot today i think but that might change if i decide to procrastinate way more than i should latwr

also @cop spec talk, yeah i agree. i’m sorry
 
Quick, write down any thoughts you had about things before you read this post! Seriously, seriously not trying to derail here no matter how much it looks like it. But it's been quiet enough for a bit (I guess because everyone's at work) that I think this might be an okay time to say it...?

This is definitely the final nail in my role's coffin, but it's been distracting me the entire time since last night phase began and I don't think that's a good thing when we have mafia members to find (and also real life stuff that I haven't been able to focus on properly, silly as that is).

  • in the former case, I do believe ottercopter really should share with the class; if activating her useful power depends on town, we can arrange for it, and if it depends on mafia, that's most likely what they're already expecting, and chances of them taking the bait, least of all on a player who's likely to get vigged on her own, are infinitesimal.

Oh, and also what's up with Ottercopter is of a great deal of interest to me. [...] Like, the excuse is that she doesn't want to derail the discussion with info about her role, but I think that it's going to be a lot more deraily to have this claim dropped late in the discussion, when people will have already started forming opinions on who we might want to vote for at the end of the day and who might have to completely revise them in light of the new information. I think we want to get everything out on the table as quickly as possible so we have the maximum amount of time to consider the evidence with as full a context as possible. [...] I am also really weirded out by the fact that she made that "I win if lynched" claim at all, since she was on her way to lynching (as far as she knew? Apparently she miscounted?)... Like, if she actually won if lynched, all she was doing there was giving people a huge incentive to jump off the train. If you win by getting lynched, the correct thing to do if you find yourself staring down a lynch is... to not say anything.

Good point.

You both said something like "She would never announce, she knows what she's doing!" And thanks, I love you for having confidence in me, but I totally did. My role was Thanatos Gambit and I'm a townie trying to get killed by the Mafia. I misread it as trying to get killed by the town, couldn't really tell you why. The problem is that the focus was obviously "You win if you're killed" and I focused instead on "Town win > mafia win" and the "Gambit" part, assuming that maybe if I died, there's be a reaction. Like a Mafia remember who voted for me (or killed me once I reread the PM and realized my error) might get revealed in the process. Or some other hint related to my role's secret plan, ooooooo~

But then I talked to someone uninvolved in the game last evening who told me that I probably really AM just someone who wants to be killed by the Mafia for a full win aaaand that's about it lol. I just didn't read my role properly (Which VM may not have either at first, so at least it's not just me), misinterpreted stuff, and blew my win condition up in a moment of panic. I was hoping maybe being vague about it would still give me a chance, but yeah, I don't see an out, especially with MF now confirming my thoughts that I've said enough for the Mafia to stay away from me (I definitely had the paranoid "what if MF is mafia and this just confirms this for them?! But I think Eif's right about paranoid 1% speculation not really being worth the effort).
If survival, a lynch, and a vig kill are equal losses for me, I might as well just stay alive and try to help as a vanilla townie. That's the entire truth, however improbable that sounds.

(Butterfree, I'm sorry, I swear I didn't throw my role away on purpose (until just now, but I really do think it was over for me anyway) aaaaaaaaa)
 
Ok, here it is. Take it as you will

Whatever:
Stryke

Good vibes:
Eifie
Keldeo
Negrek
Seshas
IndigoEmmy
Herbe
Panini

Neutral vibes, leaning towards good:
Mr. Ultracool
mewtini
kyeugh
Mawile
serimachi
kokorico

Neutral vibes, leaning towards bad:
Ottercopter
M&F
rari_teh

Somewhat bad vibes:
Vipera Magnifica
Mist1422

Would like to hear more from them before I make a decision:
Odie_Pie
RNP
Flora
 
short quoteless posts bc i’m on mobile for the first time during this thread but p much everyone’s long posts (especially neg and otter) have pushed them up for me hah. big fan of otter’s explanation, doesn’t sound made up to me tbqh
 
E’s vibing well enough for me to be almost sure e’s a townie with a busy-ish meat life.
How dare you, I'll have you know I'm a vegetarian D:<

but yeah, this is pretty accurate tbh.

As for actual game thoughts.

Honestly at this point Ottercopter just sounds to me like an alien who had never heard of aliens before (or who didn't immediately recognise that her role was alien - I know my role PM didn't explicitly state the standard mafia name of my role) and misunderstood her goal. Dunno if this conflicts with anything she's already said.

(Or she's some sort of "reverse alien" who needs to be lynched and then nightkilled?)

can I further the confirmation bias and speculate that maybe boq's somewhat vocal distrust of Panini and M&F could've been a factor in his death
Not sure I dare say this but... does this not also apply to Keldeo? who he also spoke quite strongly against? which you didn't bring up until M&F did (in #1764)?

I concede I may have confbias too, but it's not as if boquise was being secretive about scumreading Keldeo. He talked about it several times. And I know you noticed, because you argued with him about it (in #1085). So why omit him from your list of "people boq FoSed"? I've been townreading you almost all game (and still am overall, for all the many other reasons people have given), and from tierlists it seems like everyone else is too, so this is a little baffling to me.

i don't really get why we're assuming vm got shielded? i keep seeing this tossed around and don't get it

like in order for that to be true we have to make all of these assumptions:
[long list of assumptions]

this is all vs the more obvious conclusion of
- there is no vig
- the mafia targeted boq last night fsr

Because the "obvious conclusion" doesn't explain why mafia didn't target VM last night, given that, if he was being truthful, he was almost certainly going to become a doctor.

I'm not totally convinced VM was shielded either, but afaict, the alternative is that he is lying about something. That's eminently possible (he only tropeclaimed White Mage after Negrek had already named it), but it seems inconsistent with his activity. If he were actually carrying out some arcane plan that required us to believe he had an unusual power role, I feel like he would be putting a lot more effort into convincing us.

I also don't think there being more than one way to nightkill people is a terribly outlandish assumption in a game with ~20 players. It's not implausible that either the mafia or the hypothetical vig targeted Ottercopter last night and she is now an activated alien.
 
Honestly at this point Ottercopter just sounds to me like an alien who had never heard of aliens before (or who didn't immediately recognise that her role was alien - I know my role PM didn't explicitly state the standard mafia name of my role) and misunderstood her goal.

...obviously I wrote this before seeing otter's roleclaim

godfuckingdammit
 
but you’re kind of right, i think i’ve been 100% writing VM off because i figured the thread was just moving entirely too quickly
 
also as another note, i cannot for the life of me find it rn (prolly due to mobile) but will quote it later maybe when i can,

someone said something about reading RNP’s EoD posts innocently (they quoted his “hey who wants to see my dog”) but this kind of makes no sense to me when they were clearly meant to derail lol. whether that makes me town or scumread him is something that i have no clue about but it sure was Something
 
or who didn't immediately recognise that her role was alien - I know my role PM didn't explicitly state the standard mafia name of my role
just want to say that even if this gets overwritten bc you hadn’t yet seen her roleclaim, i really like this point
 
Because the "obvious conclusion" doesn't explain why mafia didn't target VM last night, given that, if he was being truthful, he was almost certainly going to become a doctor.
as for why VM wasn't targeted, I do think the far simplest explanation is that the mob expected him to be protected, even with one healer down. I'd say this lends additional credence to the theory that there were three doctors running around, and one was quite possibly scum
 
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