now that's more like it, gang! I sign on at 17 and there are only two pages of additional post to contend with!-
4) Okay there were a couple things I wanted to briefly mention... My point about M&F was that yesterday I felt her posts were mostly just talking about mechanics speculation (which does nothing for me because that is objective stuff that is really easy for mafia to talk about actively to make it look like they're contributing while leaving their positions on actual people in the thread completely open) and posts that were kind of just "hey don't forget to be paranoid and think about the 1% chance of X" which generally tend to make me look unfavourably on people because I think everyone knows about the 1% chance of X and it was d1 and if we constantly hedge on those chances we get absolutely nowhere, which is a pretty nice thing for the mafia. I also think this was pretty different from Meowfia where she was town and was willing to push decently hard on both me and RNP d1. She raised some suspicions of Keldeo but it feels pretty different from that considering she never even voted him (iirc? at least she ended the day on a joke vote that I think she made in one of the posts where she was talking about Keldeo) even when other people were talking about finding him suspicious and voting him. I see she's doing more stuff today but now that she's been called out the well is kind of poisoned for me (to use a phrase Keldeo described it as once :p) so I'm just like. urrrgh. idk.
yeah, I'd say you're overestimating people if you feel like considering the alternative take is some obvious shit that everyone knows about. like, even without being critical of everyone's skills, it's
hard to stay on track of who's likely to be town, why that is, and how much leeway it entails. like, here's an example: most people in this game feel that you're probably town -- as I do, as a matter of fact -- but they're also sheeping you far, far harder than what merits a read based on just "ech she's around and sounds like she's trying to help". there's a crucial difference between feeling like someone's town and having strong reasons to assume so; keeping those two apart isn't always as simple as you're making it out to be
and yeah, I was out and early and hardcore on the pushing at Meowfia -- and I remember you tunnelling on me for
that back then, even -- but that was because that game gave me a lot to grasp on right off the bat. meanwhile, D1 here (until EoD when I couldn't keep up) felt like it was largely some inane shit leading nonwhere at the speed of light. like, I dunno if I've been clear enough about that at the time, but a big reason why I didn't engage with some of the threads in D1 is that I felt like much of it was nothing on top of nothing. and well, what can I say, chasing nothing on top of nothing is how we now have a lynched doctor
I don't like dedicating that much of a given post to defending myself but I guess it's not better if I start not responding to speculation about me
You both said something like "She would never announce, she knows what she's doing!" And thanks, I love you for having confidence in me, but I totally did. My role was Thanatos Gambit and I'm a townie trying to get killed by the Mafia. I misread it as trying to get killed by the town, couldn't really tell you why. The problem is that the focus was obviously "You win if you're killed" and I focused instead on "Town win > mafia win" and the "Gambit" part, assuming that maybe if I died, there's be a reaction. Like a Mafia remember who voted for me (or killed me once I reread the PM and realized my error) might get revealed in the process. Or some other hint related to my role's secret plan, ooooooo~
But then I talked to someone uninvolved in the game last evening who told me that I probably really AM just someone who wants to be killed by the Mafia for a full win aaaand that's about it lol. I just didn't read my role properly (Which VM may not have either at first, so at least it's not just me), misinterpreted stuff, and blew my win condition up in a moment of panic. I was hoping maybe being vague about it would still give me a chance, but yeah, I don't see an out, especially with MF now confirming my thoughts that I've said enough for the Mafia to stay away from me (I definitely had the paranoid "what if MF is mafia and this just confirms this for them?! But I think Eif's right about paranoid 1% speculation not really being worth the effort).
If survival, a lynch, and a vig kill are equal losses for me, I might as well just stay alive and try to help as a vanilla townie. That's the entire truth, however improbable that sounds.
och, kingmaker scenarios
yeah, that all tracks and also validates my speculation that your PM was rough to read in a hurry; call this 1% speculation if you will, though, I still consider it entirely possible that, as scum, you figured a sincere-sounding surrender would sound more genuine than an attempt to remain useful. regardless, though, I'd still rather the vig take care of this one -- if for no other reason than mercy -- and continue on the chase for new information
Oh, right, so you think the mafia expected VM to be protected (presumably by himself)? Aaargh. Yes, ok, I admit I didn't think of that.
Is there any reason why VM shouldn't just say who he healed N1, to try to narrow down the possibilities? Would that give extra info to the mafia somehow? It's not like his cover can be any more broken.
self-targeting healers are rare in the TCoD meta; the presumption is that he'd be healed by our presumably missing tech doctor. if that one is alive and kicking, I guess the good news is that there's some potential for WIFOM play there; if the mafia only has one kill to their name per night, they most likely can't take the risk of shooting VM as long as the threat of him being healed exists -- and conversely, the tech doctor might just have the freedom to heal someone else, further shriking the mob's chances of getting any solid kills done
as for VM saying who he's healed, there's no reason why not, but there's also no reason why. I feel like it'd be like, slightly worse than better, because it'd give the mafia some minor insight as to what VM's particular heal priorities are
