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Forum Revival TV Tropes Mafia Revival - D7

kokorico said:
I've been meaning to ask. If you're mafia, and your cover's been blown, why are you bothering hinting to us about things we don't know about? Presumably it would be better for your team to keep quiet. In fact, if I was in your scumchat, I would be screaming at you to stfu.
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Cause it's fun? I wanna know stuff as much as you guys do.
 
Oh. Oh shit.

OK, this is a theory that just popped into my mind, prompted by RNP's speculation about third parties a moment ago. This might seem a little convoluted but bear with me.

Suppose that Mawile was not a member of the mafia in-group - maybe a terrorist, maybe a third-party, hell, maybe even just a scummy-looking innocent. Under any of those circumstances, the mafia would believe he was an innocent, and would be delighted to target the two of them last night in order to get two nightkills for the price of one.

So, I think it's a reasonable assumption that one of these two is the case:
  1. Mawile is in-group mafia, as we've been assuming, or
  2. The mafia tried to off Mawile and Herbe last night and failed.
We'll take option 2 first. Why might the mafia try and fail to kill Mawile or Herbe?

It wasn't a doctor. Stryke and I targeted Eifie (and maybe roleblock shenanigans were involved); VM targeted kyeugh. I refuse to believe that there are MORE healing roles out there. It also wasn't town!RNP, who says he targeted Stryke, or mafia!RNP, who would have to be crazy to block his own faction nightkill. Eifie was a possibly-false vigilante, not a bodyguard, and no other possible bodyguards died. So either some unforeseen role was involved, or Mawile or Herbe was simply immune to nightkills.

Updating our possibilities:
  1. Mawile is in-group mafia, or
  2. Mawile and Herbe are non-mafia, and one of them was immune to nightkills on Night 2, or
  3. Some other unknown role is involved.
Now, someone (kyeugh?) mentioned earlier that motion detector was an oddly cavalier claim. She's not wrong! A false claim of no movement, if it happens to land on a power role, is insanely easy to disprove. When Mawile claimed to have tracked me and found no movement, he must have known there would be a decent chance he would guess incorrectly and come off as scum. Arguably it was useful to out me as a doctor, but I'm not convinced that giving up a mafioso for the chance to identify a power role is a good trade-off for mafia.

That leaves us with:
  1. Mawile is in-group mafia and is playing very badly and giving away information to town for free after being outed, or
  2. Mawile and Herbe are non-mafia, one of them was immune to nightkills on Night 2, and Mawile is now actively trying to be lynched, or
  3. Some other unknown role is involved.
Option 2 should be sounding extremely scary riiight about now.

TL;DR: It might not be the most likely scenario, but I think there is at least a non-negligible chance that Mawile is an activated alien. I propose we find someone else to lynch today and, since our only possibly-a-vig has gone to the angels, attempt to kill Mawile by healer clash during N3. Unvote.
 
(Thanks for coming to my TED talk. I will not taking questions immediately because I have a coursework deadline in fifty-eight minutes)
 
the fact that mawile wow-reacted ... LOL. excited to hear keldeo's thoughts, but the way mawile's talked/alluded to his role ("my pm states that i don't inherit killing powers," etc) makes me think this is not the case? but i see your point. good idea tbh

kokorico said:
Mawile is in-group mafia and is playing very badly and giving away information to town for free after being outed,
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i guess i have to go back and look since i've not been very thread-involved today (have been in classes) but i kind of didn't think he'd given away anything that was actually valuable?
 
(Keldeo, rereading the thread to post thoughts like you requested. Might be a bit, but I'll try and get it done tonight!)

Possible counterpoint to the activated alien theory, Butterfree's Mafia Rules thread says that an alien only shows up as mafia once they've been activated. Rari_teh says that they inspected Mawile as Mafia on night one, but there haven't really been any clear changes in the circumstances or number of deaths over the past three nights.
Eifie's death is pretty ambiguous with RNP's claim being at odds with the possibility of a healer clash, but... that's the night after.
And it's probably not a vigilante activation because I was a more obvious target for that and nobody's confessed to trying to kill Mawile even though we have a declared vigilante????
 
just ftr koko's recent thread involvement has cemented them as town for me. good spec that's not so out there as to be inviting chaos, but just out there enough to show that e's not just vibing along with the crowd

Ottercopter said:
Rari_teh says that they inspected Mawile as Mafia on night one, but there haven't really been any clear changes in the circumstances or number of deaths over the past three nights.
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yep

like if there are multiplying reasons to avoid a mawile lynch (which i don't think is/will be the case) then rari's other wolfread, MF, could be next in line - especially as the chances of a redirect or roleblock on rari seem to decrease - but idk if that's totally relevant exactly now?
 
Just to clarify: i still look at this thread on my kindle but for whatever reason i can't log in on my kindle so all i can do is see. SO I CAN see what shenanigans y'all get up to during the evening hours.
 
kokorico said:
TL;DR: It might not be the most likely scenario, but I think there is at least a non-negligible chance that Mawile is an activated alien. I propose we find someone else to lynch today and, since our only possibly-a-vig has gone to the angels, attempt to kill Mawile by healer clash during N3. Unvote.
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Consider tho:
rari_teh said:
Welp, blame kyeugh on this one. I’m lighting my cigarrette, for this is almost certainly my last Day alive.

I am a Private Detective and my power is Stalking Mission. Which means, I’m a regular alignment cop. No quirks that I know of.

N0 Mr. Ultracool: not mafia
N1 Mawile: mafia
N2 M&F: mafia

That is all information I got. I hope we do the right thing.
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Rari getting a mafia check on Mawile N1 doesn't make sense if they're an alien that hadn't been activated yet because according to the game rules they should still be in pre-activation and show as not mafia right? So then either we have to speculate even further that there's some sort of messing around with Rari's results still or that they lied. Either feels like you're starting to approach the event horizon on Occam's razor.
 
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