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Forum Revival TV Tropes Mafia Revival - D7

eh EoD is a while away yet and i'm interested in how this turns out

redneckphoenix
 
Hi again! Sorry I haven't been around much this phase - there hasn't been much to go on and I've had work to do anyway. Will try to be more active on D5.

First off, it doesn't seem like we're going to hear from M&F so. yeah. I was a little worried that, although rari is basically conftown by virtue of bodyswapping, her reads might have been compromised by Mawile. But M&F shows no sign of coming to defend themself which frankly speaks volumes in itself. (I'd be on board with the RNP wagon too if that gets off the ground - see below.)

More usefully, I've been thinking about the me/RNP/Stryke debacle (from a mechanical pov, since I'm starting to realise that I am very bad at making reads). In the hope that it will be helpful, I've made a matrix of how well each possible combination of alignments fits the facts. First up is the scenario where I actually am a doctor and healed Eifie.

doc!kokorico
mafia!RNPtown!RNP
mafia!StrykeDoesn't fit the facts. I should have healed Eifie, preventing her from dying, so the only way this works is if I was roleblocked. But nobody (including me) had any indication I was a doctor beforehand, so that should be impossible.Stryke's fakeclaim doesn't make sense. He didn't know that RNP targeted him, so claiming to have healed Eifie drew attention to him for no gain. He should have claimed to heal someone completely different, which would have been unfalsifiable.
town!StrykeProbably the most plausible option in this table. Healer clash happened, and then RNP fakeclaimed to throw shade at me or Stryke or both. However, it doesn't explain where the real mafia nightkill went - maybe they targeted protected!kyeugh?Contradicts Eifie's death. Requires interference from a fourth, unknown role (like a mafia strongman), or RNP to be lying for shits and giggles. Either is conceivably possible, but considerably less likely than the healer clash.

Second, assuming my role is fake, as Keldeo speculated earlier. We already know that this is game is hugely nonstandard so I don't think it would be outside the realm of possibility, even if it would be slightly frustrating for me. These scenarioes also leave fewer questions unanswered than the ones above do.

fakedoc!kokorico
mafia!RNPtown!RNP
mafia!StrykeCould be a risky mafia plan, with Stryke and RNP concocting plausible fakeclaims that fit the facts. RNP would look scummy for the questionable decision of blocking a claimed doctor, but without my claim, they might have gotten away with it.Stryke's fakeclaim still doesn't make sense. This case is the same as in the above table because I hadn't claimed yet at the time he made his claim, so he had no idea I even might be a doctor, let alone that there was some doubt about it.
town!StrykeRNP's behaviour seems off. This scenario requires RNP to be a mafia roleblocker who actually did block Stryke. But then he would know I wasn't really a doctor, which would make it incredibly easy for him to cast me as scum - yet he hasn't. Then again, he hasn't been terribly active anyway.Entirely possible, and an epic fail for town. In this situation I would expect the mafia to be supporting RNP, since he would (a) seem incredibly scummy and (b) be worth keeping around in case he fucked up again. Which he did, by blocking Stryke again - so arguably we should be lynching him anyway.

And for completion's sake, here's a third set for the world where I'm actually mafia. Obviously I know I'm town (...unless butterfree is lying to me, which would be even more cruel than making me a fake doctor) but if the shoe was on the other foot I would be suspicious of everyone involved, so it wouldn't be terribly helpful of me to ignore this branch of possibilities. It's also useful because it lets us model how town!RNP would be thinking (see below).

mafia!kokorico
mafia!RNPtown!RNP
mafia!StrykeDoesn't make any sense at all. RNP would do better to keep quiet and let Stryke's and my story of a healer clash stand. (And even if RNP were being deliberately screwy, I at least would definitely be yelling at him in wolfchat.)The only real possibility in this set. Stryke and I think up a story of a healer clash and RNP blunders into it, fucking up our carefully laid plan. I can't prove this didn't happen (unless RNP or Stryke flips the wrong way) so I guess I have to ask you to trust me here.
town!StrykeDoesn't explain how Eifie died, as Stryke should have healed her. As above, the only way this works is if RNP actually did block him. But then my fakeclaim would be harmful to mafia, as it would screw with an otherwise plausible story.Lacks any reason for me to fakeclaim. I'd know that the mafiakill had gone through despite Stryke's attempted heal, and therefore that a town roleblocker must have targeted him. In that situation I'd shut up and let town yell at RNP for causing Eifie's death.

Conclusions:
  • There's at least a reasonable chance that my role PM is inaccurate: so, unless instructed otherwise, I'll 100% target kyeugh tonight (no coinflip) in the hope that her ~mysterious~ role can provide insight. (I suggest VM heals, or at least coinflip-heals, Keldeo as he may still be the cop, and suggest Ottercopter does more swapping to further obfuscate the other possibilities)
  • If I am in fact a doctor, Stryke definitely is too. But if my role is fake it's possible (though not likely, imo) that he may be lying.
  • RNP is probably mafia (or at least lying, or playing antitown, for some inexplicable reason). However, this line of reasoning is predicated on my own knowledge that I am town; if you think I am mafia, then RNP is probably not
    • Corollary: town!RNP should believe me to be mafia with probability > random chance. The fact that he's not hammered on me at any point today or yesterday is frankly odd.
Will be back again before EOD to see what people think, and to jump on the RNP wagon if it's a thing yet. I understand if you'd be wary of my longposts following my going-off-the-rails-about-aliens post earlier, but hopefully this is useful to someone's theorising anyway.
 
don't have much to say except that on first readthrough that seems solid to me. in general, i don't think kyeugh would've been an unlikely mafia hit and i also think that kokorico has looked pretty towny (moreso as time goes on, and i also may be in the minority but i liked the weird alien spec post in the context of eir post history) so i'm still subscribing to that for now

also i agree that if koko is mafia, RNP is (very likely) not also. i'm deflating my own ?maf!RNP take here though, because i think RNP did get as close to hammering on you as he ever will:
RedneckPhoenix said:
so. we think it was a healer clash?
how interesting.
Click to expand...

as an aside, i went through toDay's posts for a votecount/post-track, if anyone is curious (i started wondering once another wagon pulled up). as of right now it's
6 mf: otter 3655, (me 3656), herbe 3657, rari 3687, panini 3695, seshas 3701, (skylar 3717), kokorico 3822
2 RNP: skylar 3802, me 3821
 
Panini said:
@Vipera Magnifica if it's safe for you to say so, who'd you heal last night?
Click to expand...
I healed Stryke, since Stryke was coinflip-healing me and kokorico.

I don't have great feelings about M&F but at the moment I'm more worried about RedneckPhoenix since if he keeps blocking Stryke it's going to get either me or kokorico killed, and he made it pretty clear he wasn't going to listen to us. If he's town, he's negative utility right now and if he's mafia, I suspect his role is a lot more dangerous to us than whatever M&F's role might be.

I thought about suggesting I team up with Stryke to healclashvig RNP tonight but that obviously wouldn't work since RNP would just block either one of us, but if we lynch RNP and vig M&F there's presumably nothing they can do to stop us. Just throwing that out there as a suggestion.
 
but like on the other hand RNP isn't confirmed mafia in the way that MF is, so that should also be more important? idk, so ... i guess someone gets the task of pitching either one to me
 
mewtini said:
we don't have a vig as far as we know, but i'm becoming increasingly uncertain of who i want to lynch today (kinda because of what you said) even though i kind of only joined this wagon for science hah
Click to expand...
lol on the other hand, IF there is a vig out there who's just been avoiding shooting because they weren't certain of someone's alignment, MF would not be a bad shot. but given the late eifie's trope i doubt there's anyone are you there, god? out there.
 
mewtini said:
we don't have a vig as far as we know, but i'm becoming increasingly uncertain of who i want to lynch today (kinda because of what you said) even though i kind of only joined this wagon for science hah
Click to expand...
No... heal clash vig... as in Stryke and I purposely try to get a heal clash on M&F

Come to think of it that would also prove I'm not the nanobots doctor so two birds with one stone I guess
 
Ottercopter said:
I could get behind that idea, but doesn't admitting that you won't protect each other so openly kinda paint a target on your back for the mafia?
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this is what worries me

also, i'm sorry, just didn't realize that's what y'all meant. do you think that the plan is actually better than lynching RNP/MF (idk what order that should occur in)
 
i do admit it does put koko at a bit of a risk if we try this because thered be no one backing em up and potentially healing them, so i guess it comes down to if eir cool with that
 
Stryke said:
i do admit it does put koko at a bit of a risk if we try this because thered be no one backing em up and potentially healing them, so i guess it comes down to if eir cool with that
Click to expand...
im pretty sure i misused some pronouns in that sentence and i apologize
 
Ottercopter said:
I could get behind that idea, but doesn't admitting that you won't protect each other so openly kinda paint a target on your back for the mafia?
Click to expand...
yeah, in that case I should coinflip-heal one of them. (I might not actually be a doctor, but the mafia can't rely on that being the case.) I can always target kyeugh the night after if we don't have anything better to do.

Stryke said:
i do admit it does put koko at a bit of a risk if we try this because thered be no one backing em up and potentially healing them, so i guess it comes down to if eir cool with that
Click to expand...
Well how about this:
  • You heal M&F
  • VM coinflip-heals M&F or me
  • I coinflip-heal you or VM
All three of us have a chance of being healed (so the mafia can't safely target us), and we have a 50% shot at offing M&F

...or we could just lynch M&F on D5, which seems more straightforward and less risky
 
yeah. i understand VM's point about wanting to switch to RNP, but i think regardless of what happens MF is going to get lynched pretty soon? i admittedly am kind of like, eep, about it because i feel like if we wait she'll show up and confuse us more lmfao and i'm nervous about moving away from a more-or-less confirmed wolf (especially now that we've got conversation going about next steps)

so i'm still wondering if it's really worth the healcircus when idk how much we lose by not lynching MF today, and putting it off until d5, assuming that we don't get distracted away from it
Vipera Magnifica said:
Come to think of it that would also prove I'm not the nanobots doctor so two birds with one stone I guess
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this is the main benefit i see but i also don't know if general sentiment is skeptical of you there? idk

(as i post this i'm just seeing koko's plan above, which makes sense, but even e seems to imply waiting for a d5 lynch makes more sense right now?)
 
"healcircus" is an excellent word, thank you

mewtini said:
(as i post this i'm just seeing koko's plan above, which makes sense, but even e seems to imply waiting for a d5 lynch makes more sense right now?)
Click to expand...
yeah, I'll do my bit if requested, but it seems like a lot of moving parts that could go wrong compared to just lynching. especially if we turn out to be wrong about either M&F or RNP and mislynch, er, "mishealclashvig" them
 
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