Tarot Mafia

[Herbe]

what are the odds that mr. ultracool is the third party mist is talking about, and wins if he gets x number of visitors in a night? what if he kills all of those visitors :O

 

[Herbe]

im mega stream of consciousness-ing (is that the phrase?) and just wanted to point out that i could see a kokorico/ultracool w/w,,, will give details later if i feel like it :3 yes this world contradicts with my literal last post what about it
(also, pagetop, niiiiice)

 

[Trebek]

what are the odds that mr. ultracool is the third party mist is talking about, and wins if he gets x number of visitors in a night? what if he kills all of those visitors :O

now this is the kind of tinfoil i can get behind

not sure i actually believe it but it is indeed plausible?

 

[Herbe]

my koko/uc w/w tinfoil is way worse and if you ask me about it in the morning/afternoon tomorrow i will likely be embarassed to admit it but in the interest of Honesty, i wanted to announce it

 

[Trebek]

my koko/uc w/w tinfoil is way worse and if you ask me about it in the morning/afternoon tomorrow i will likely be embarassed to admit it but in the interest of Honesty, i wanted to announce it

this tinfoil would also go against ur tarot cards, which as we all know are the premier reads in this game

 

[M&F]

ah ha, admittedly, I flatly missed a spot check on the part where he mentioned half the powers being useless to the mob. hmmmm... there's a lot more idle rummaging I could do on the matter, but I like Seshas's watcher plan. shall we put it into action, then? if we are, I suppose what it means is: don't visit Mr. Ultracool unless you are a watcher. (this should also help us keep the damage constrained in the tinfoiled event of a third-party who's going to cause problems if we take the bait)

anyway, I guess I'm fine with cooking JackPK for tonight? I was wondering where herbe's vote came from but he did make some posts earlier to the effect of side-eying him; I don't think herb's reasoning is on the money there, but I've mentioned my own reasoning to suspect Jack, so I'll have to chalk that up to potentially right for the wrong reasons,

 

[M&F]

(like, fine with besides that it means I'm killing Jack early in the game for a second time, but at least he didn't seem to mind the first one so much, so-)

 

[Keldeo]

I'm not sure I understand the utility of the watcher plan. Wouldn't it essentially vanillaize both Mr. Ultracool and the watcher (as they'd no longer be able to watch for the mafia kill), if Mr. Ultracool is telling the truth?

I'm maybe being too cavalier about the risks from mafia targeting him - I suspect "playing it safe" like that would probably be better than letting people do whatever, if consensus is split - but if he's town and mafia choose to waste their useful targeting roles like roleblocker / rolecop / etc. for a coin flip chance of getting a useful item in return, I don't entirely mind that.

 

[Keldeo]

That is of course making some assumptions about the mafia's plausible targeting roles, which is probably unwise because my default assumption is that VM didn't go conventional. But in the world where Mr. Ultracool is town, a lot of the mafia targeting roles I can think of would have little utility targeting a claimed town who apparently can't be blocked.

 

[Keldeo]

That all being said, I kind of feel like I'm missing something, lmk if I am just being bad at mechanics.

 

[Zero Moment]

The vote for Jack is interesting, though I'll decline to participate—I almost certainly won't be on again before Nightfall tomorrow, so I wouldn't be able to change my vote after listening to any arguments against.
However, if it's decided we want no lynches today, do note that just rescinding votes for Jack wouldn't be enough, as Mist still has a vote out for Seshas.

 

[Keldeo]

What do you mean by interesting, ZM?

Jack, I'm also interested in any thoughts you have about these new votes.

 

[mewtini]

it is ... 5am, let's try this again. now that holiday stuff is over (and that !!!EoD!!! is near), reading through thread and doing my classic thoughtspost again lmfao because i don't think i'll ever fully process without it :'D will readslist afterward, for real this time unless i fall asleep, and i will definitely not be proofreading

Spoiler: long

damn will is lying again? parking my vote tbh

Do you think Mist is telling the truth?

i don't think that that would be hard to lie about (its hard to prove the absence of a third party cause they dont usually self reveal anyway?) but inherently i trusted them abt it

i think this interaction was fine, tbh? later seshas points it out as hedging but like ... i think that sort of is a weird thing to shade herbe for here because i think that this reaction is almost perfectly NAI in my mind (mafia and town alike would react sort of similarly to outgroup talk, i think, except that mafia might want to do it more subtly?) and i think in the world where herbe and mist are both mafia, and herbe wanted to lend some sort of credence or strength to mist's post, he doesn't do it in this way (where he like, gives a long reason why mist's post should be taken with a grain of salt - before offhandedly saying "but i bought it in the moment")

in 119 seshas later mentions that she considers it weak, i guess i'm lightly worried about the shade but meh. her 65 (reading into herbe's tarot jokeread) is also kind of ?_? to me

god imagine the 4d chess if mist was somehow setting up some elaborate mafia gamble hinging on town believing there's outgroup scum/third party bad boys

this makes me think mist and herbe not w/w, immediately responding to a partner's post by wifom-ing it feels loosely unlikely

Right so we have uhhh 18 players if I'm counting right? So assuming like a fifth to a third (ish) are scum, that's like 4-6ish, so if Mist's info is correct then that sounds like an ingroup of like 3-5 and at least one outgroup? Seems plausible imo

responding to mist claiming to know of 3p/outgroup by checking to see if it fits into the setup constraints feels like, fine to me tbh and i am kind of surprised to see some shading based on this post considering that i've gotten TRed for saying "so there are probably ___ number of wolves in this game, right?" multiple times before

I didn't interpret Mist's initial reveal as a joke, just as a slightly ambiguous phrasing that they quickly clarified. I think it would be completely in character as a signal from an ingroup mafia who's trying to signal to an outgroup. Which is not to say that that's my working theory right now - I think it probably makes more sense for mafia!Mist to signal more subtly, regardless of whether they're ingroup or not - but I don't think it's much less likely than the opposite.

agree with this for now but i need to revisit mistposting at a later time tbh because i keep getting glossyeyed over it right now; dominant thought is that i don't gutread it as grounds for a SR, and also that i am bad at/dislike reading mist tbh so i'm going to just put a pin in this for later
also i don't think i follow seshas' argument (too lazy to quote, since it's multipost) that mist is > rand town so i'll have to come back to it as well

- feel kind of weird about seshas' readlist/talk across 144 and 145, where light SRs were kind of made off of ... activity levels a few hours into the Day?
- thought about this while looking at jack's readlist in 172 - i've thought that seshas/koko have been a bit shade-throwy this game, but he seems to react a bit differently to the two? i personally think that it's a bit more within koko's townmeta to be paranoid in the way that e has been here, but seshas is now confusing me a bit/feeling out of her town meta even though i mentioned before that i liked that her solviness remains.
- agreeing with keldeo's remark in re: ultracool in 178
- top of koko's 181 is making me a bit :/, i think it deeply overlooks that ultracool's fakeclaim in cats was during an immediate pre-lynch scenario and also presumes that someone would ... try to fakeclaim a similar role twice in a row? (not to mention that he never really elaborated that the faked role in cats was an "item mechanic" role)
- then again maybe it's sort of silly of me to townlean this but koko talking about the grocerylist felt strangely earnest to me, haha. right now i feel meh about the bullet point above but there is a certain quality in koko's posting so far that make me lean town i think (not specifying for the sake of seeing if it continues)
- herbe connecting the jack sideeye to his own wolf meta (jack's mechspec reminding herbe of his scumgame) in 184 can be towny
- i kind of can't tell where i stand on skylar thus far this game and i've largely been tonereading her ever since tvt, but i appreciate her attempt to defuse some of the ultracool awkwardness in 201 because i think she could have maybe let that sentiment roll onward as scum? (then again this isn't really out of her wolfrange, lol. i will vibe for now)
- agree with jack's tvt read of mf in 204 (although i don't quite follow her lines of thought throughout this game as he seems to?)
- not very clear on the "colossal countertunnel" (from jack, on seshas) that mf mentions in 207? it is late and i might just be missing it, but jack's read on seshas was based on seshas shading herbe, wasn't it?
- trebek's 210 surprised me by virtue of being sort of out-of-character, though i know for sure that he's been hoping to become a more aggressive/active player
- i said this already but i like, really don't love MF's 220 (policy lynching ultracool), partly because i'm against policy lynching but also because the conclusion sort of comes out of nowhere i feel. i am getting the impression that MF doesn't actually scumlean ultracool which makes it very like :/ that there's an argument to ... lynch town? especially given what ultracool mentioned about not believing his item giveaway to be of use to mafia (though i didn't fully follow that post either)

in an ideal world i would compile a list of pings/questions right about now, we will see whether or not i do that before passing out,

 

[mewtini]

thought about this while looking at jack's readlist in 172 - i've thought that seshas/koko have been a bit shade-throwy this game, but he seems to react a bit differently to the two? i personally think that it's a bit more within koko's townmeta to be paranoid in the way that e has been here, but seshas is now confusing me a bit/feeling out of her town meta even though i mentioned before that i liked that her solviness remains.

realized that this was based on an anachronism tbh, the kokoshade i was referring to didn't happen until like 10 posts after jack's list

 

[mewtini]

unordered and haphazard
will likely change drastically once i get to review this overNight or something

Spoiler: tierlist

mewt: mewt

cool:
ultracool (haha get it, cool. i was thrown for a loop by his posting but i think that his heightened posting level, considering his meta, is townier than not. given his sort of like, naive/genuine tone? in tvt i think i gutread him as town here despite being like ?_? initially)
herbe (the most comfortable he's seemed in a while, and doesn't seem nearly as reluctant to actually poke at the game itself as he was as scum in tvt)
mf (similar to my VM read in cats, where i thought his plays were like ... too outlandish/attention grabbing to be wolf i guess. i will likely reevaluate this soon because i don't find myself agreeing with or loving her content but i think i can better imagine it coming from town than from wolf)

sure:
stryke
storm (toneread)

???:
jack (not really grasping the wagon rationale and i'll have to figure it out sometime soon :'D my understanding is that jack is by far more used to classic tcodfia so i'm not really thinking much of the mechspec ... i don't think i agreed with his readslist? but nothing has made me think scummy - or towny - yet)
trebek
keldeo (nothing AI yet, has not posted as much as normal so i'm having a harder time gauging his thread influence than i do when he's a louder voice)
mist (don't fully know where i land yet on my theorizing about "outgroup signaling" or "nah just town," i'm mostly just confused about the utility of having early-infoclaimed as either alignment)
bfree (nothing really AI yet; reasonable sounding posts that just sound very Butterfree)

lightly eh:
seshas (solvy as per usual, i think she would be doing that as either alignment though. i don't think she pushed hard on anyone at any point in tvt though - the endgame emmypush does not count - and is behaving differently than she did in cats when she was alive, so this is just here since ... it feels markedly different)
kokorico (am wavering on this due to my meta understanding, where i think koko might just be in eir townrange despite my weird feelings here. eir reaction to ultracool's claim felt disproportionate and i don't think the jack side-eye for #48 was warranted; maintaining that taking a normal scum:town ratio and accounting for a hotly-discussed outgroup member doesn't require insider info and wasn't a weird reaction to have in the moment)

lowposters:
emmy
zm
rnp

 

[mewtini]

was thinking more about keldeo asking me how i could get to a more "head full" position wrt this game, and i think the climate just feels distinctly different from tvt/cats to me. like, significantly more aggressive (memephase ended a lot earlier ...) and more direct talk of lynching, overt FoSes on d1. i ... get easily stressed out ingame and combat that by staying super on top of the thread, so not being able to do that this weekend due to holiday stuff combined with the sort of unfamiliar environment is making me feel really out of my element atm ;(

 

[Keldeo]

mewtini, what from Seshas makes you think they are being "shade throwy"? idt I've noticed anything out of the ordinary in that vein but I haven't compared to their previous games.

Also, for the record, I went back and looked at the Cats scum chat and Mr. Ultracool did have somewhat of a focus on items (e.g. suggested claiming scummate Rari's neighborizer powers as coming from an item.) I'm still inclined to believe him / let him vibe for now, though.

 

[mewtini]

haven't directly compared either, i'm kinda going off of memory right now. i think it might have been the semi-sustained herbe shade combined with her just being a bit more aggressive d1; iirc, in tvt she wasn't super engaged d1 beyond claiming her mysterious informant tidbit and making detached-ish micro/interaction reads, and in cats she was more involved but (i think?) didn't make many player-specific pushes while alive on d1. she's also said before that she doesn't really play very prolifically in earlygame so that + the slightly more forceful energy i'm getting from her posting + my ease in townleaning/reading her in prior games is making me uneasy

Also, for the record, I went back and looked at the Cats scum chat and Mr. Ultracool did have somewhat of a focus on items (e.g. suggested claiming scummate Rari's neighborizer powers as coming from an item.)

ah, interesting. i think i'm mostly fixated on the fact that he's breaking his meta tbh and i think that that change is more likely to be town wanting to shift approaches than a wolf (where coasting would be more optimal)

 

[mewtini]

was thinking more about keldeo asking me how i could get to a more "head full" position wrt this game, and i think the climate just feels distinctly different from tvt/cats to me. like, significantly more aggressive (memephase ended a lot earlier ...) and more direct talk of lynching, overt FoSes on d1. i ... get easily stressed out ingame and combat that by staying super on top of the thread, so not being able to do that this weekend due to holiday stuff combined with the sort of unfamiliar environment is making me feel really out of my element atm ;(

i think that i'll have a better time once i'm able to actually do realtime posting tbh because i really just hate catching up and having to imagine/piece together what the inthread climate was at a given point of time instead of just. being there when it happens. lmao

 

[Keldeo]

mewt, just wondering, what separates stryke/storm from Jack/Trebek/me/Mist/Bfree to you?