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Of course I have a theory to contribute too :D *shot*
So, we all know by now that the ancients went to the mountains and became the Tribe of Rushing Water, right? Good.
However, as Jayfeather thinks, there seems to be a connection between the ancients, the Tribe of Endless Hunting, and StarClan. We should all know that the ancients changed their style of naming to include a prepositional phrase in them (obviously) but simplified things by just calling cats by the first word in their names (usually; special cases include Jagged Rock Where Heron Sits (a.k.a. Jag) and Teller of the Pointed Stones (a.k.a. Stoneteller)).
There could've easily been four cats who were named Shadow, River, Thunder, and Wind.
For some reason, the four probably gathered a group of cats who were dissatisfied with their mountain home and departed for a better place to live.
You know where I'm going with this already, but I don't care :D
Eventually, they all arrived at, you guessed it, the forest. Cue story in Secrets of the Clans.
...This would explain things, anyway :P
Yes it is. :D
Well, to actually contribute to conversation, I also have a theory. :D
Well, this theory is most likely false, but here it is anyway.
SkyClan was never mentioned in SotC, right? What if they formed later on? I had a theory that one of the tribes from the lake (there were 3, right? Correct me if I'm wrong.) left the lake after they heard that one tribe left to go to the mountains, and thet traveled to the forest, where the Clan Cats were already settled, so they got the territory behind ThunderClan. This also explains how they lost faith in StarClan so easily and why the other Clan Leaders didn't mind kicking them out.
Also, when Jaypaw was Jay's Wing wouldn't he have noticed that it probably wasn't ThunderClan considering the fact that he could see? o.o I also didn't feel all that bad for Half Moon at all... I wanted them to spend more time with the old-Tribe.
Except for the fact thatthere were three Tribes by the lake - one became the mountain Tribe, one most likely became the Clans (explaining why they have such parallel beliefs though they're worlds apart), and one... went somewhere else. :/
Firestar's Quest wasn't out when Secrets of the Clans was released. I don't think they wanted to spoil FQ's secret.