Animal Crossing: New Horizons Mafia

[tbh²]

why were you townreading bbt again?

i think i kinda want to drop trebek from my PoE tbh but this is a sort of fear-inducing thing for me now, i think it makes my team koko/bbt/mist

 

[tbh²]

anyway i'mma head out for a bit, maybe rari will show up in my stead or something

 

[Mawile]

with the caveat that i don’t think koko/tbh w/w makes sense

i mean as w/w they could claim that koko healed VF and tbh roleblocked koko and that's how the VF kill went through
since the kill wasn't on m+7 due to me healing her and me not being roleblocked

 

[Trebek]

bbt was really strong d1 Vibes, while i do want to see their claim i don’t think there’s a universe where i vote them today

also, this admittedly may be WIFOM, but i feel like w!koko would have been way more excited to immediately vote mawile

 

[qenya]

oh, I just realised I haven't actually voted for tbh², oops :P

i know you said earlier that you think w!roleblocker is more dangerous than w!doc or whatever but i don't really know why you're going for that approach in lylo
shouldn't the safest lynch to you be ... the other doctor

That's certainly a valid viewpoint, yes, and I did consider picking him as my wagon of choice. But as I've said a couple of times: I don't think town is winning this without taking a risk or two. So I'm taking a risk based on my knowledge that you can easily stop me healing anyone on N2 (by blocking me), while he can't.

I would peg my certainties at about 95% for Mawile and 90% for you.

I think this is a similar kind of mindset to what you're objecting to here:

?___? because going after an unclaimed PR gives you a better chance of wasting the night action than going for the claimed vigilante??

Yes, going after an unclaimed PR is perhaps not the traditional received wisdom, but as I've explained, I think that it would have been the right choice given the circumstances, and would have had a strong chance of providing immense benefit to the scumteam. As it did, in fact.

I refuse to believe that you would slavishly stick to "common scumplay principles", or whatever, even when a reasonably obvious better option was available.

koko is telling the truth about being Mable

That's very good news! This certainly makes me feel a lot better about you (and by extension worse about Mist), since it would have been very easy for you to lie, pushing suspicion onto me, and for nobody to have realised until it was too late.

 

[Trebek]

with the caveat that i don’t think koko/tbh w/w makes sense

i mean as w/w they could claim that koko healed VF and tbh roleblocked koko and that's how the VF kill went through
since the kill wasn't on m+7 due to me healing her and me not being roleblocked

mmmm that could be true

i just think that from what i know about mewts personality, that whole interaction doesn’t happen if they are w/w

 

[tbh²]

I don't think town is winning this without taking a risk or two.

... but we're at lylo ...

As it did, in fact.

yes!! on chance!! this isn't about 'slavishly' standing by common scum principles, this is like cost/benefit analysis. WHY would you risk losing one of like three wolves on n1 when you don't have to
-m

 

[tbh²]

mfw i say i'll leave, but instead i hit f5, go >:(, and reply

 

[tbh²]

WHY would you risk losing one of like three wolves on n1 when you don't have to

it's not even like mafia could've gone "hehe if this works out we'll hit lylo tomorrow" because i highly doubt that they were expecting to get a double loverkill. what you propose as the 'reasonably obvious better option' does not make sense
-m

 

[tbh²]

inb4 "maybe they guessed at lovers" because it is all but confirmed that they were trying to hit what they thought was the claimed cop, they went for vf. not mp7

 

[Trebek]

alrighty, i have to head out for a few hours, but depending on what discussion happens while i’m gone, i will most likely be dropping a vote between koko/mawile when i get back

 

[qenya]

No, I don't think you predicted the entire thing in advance, or that you'd hit YOLO straight away. (I love that acronym by the way, thank you Keldeif for coming up with it!) But as I've said repeatedly, mafia is a game of imperfect information, and you (usually) can't puzzle everything out with logic and find a 100% guaranteed way to win. Sometimes you take a risk, and sometimes it pays off, and sometimes it doesn't. In this case, it did for you. I'm hoping it does for me too.

@Anyone who cares: Yes, I will switch to Mawile before EoD if it becomes apparent that a raritini yeet is not going to happen. But I continue to believe that it is the best option and will keep pushing for it.

I'm heading off for a bit now too, gotta eat. I can't promise to be back this evening (fortunately EoD is not till tomorrow!) but I will try.

 

[qenya]

that you'd hit YOLO straight away

that you *thought you'd hit YOLO straight away

 

[Novae]

hello I have read the thread

I am currently playing a hat in time so my claim will come shortly

 

[Redstrykephoenix]

thinking is hard so i'm just gonna vote for whoever my guy says at a given moment

my gut tells me to just vibe for a few hours

 

[Novae]

ok I am back!

I'm Flick, each night I can watch a player and see if any cool bugs visit them (and other players too I guess)

n0 I was on the tbh hydra, n1 on jack, no visits both nights

 

[tbh²]

why those two visits? (or mostly jack ig)
i think the answer is kind of obvious but i ask regardless
-m

 

[Novae]

why those two visits? (or mostly jack ig)
i think the answer is kind of obvious but i ask regardless
-m

n0 because I was wondering whether scum would allow your sheer hydra power to exist in the game (or something like that)
n1 to check for a scum roleblock on the slot

 

[tbh²]

le longpost has arrived. will address things more or less chronologically.

we're kk slider/the roleblocker who occupies others by playing sick tunes, rsp n0 (because we thought it would be funny ...) and koko n1 (because e was one of two who we didn't have a reason /not/ to block, can expand on this reasoning though)

it turns out i misremembered the conversation and we hadn't narrowed it down to two people by PoE as i'd briefly thought, but rari was i think TRing bbt/mawile/trebek above you and mp7, so we chose between those two

You "misremembered"? Seriously? About the reason you chose the target for your night action? I was expecting something weak, but not quite that weak.

now i cannot describe this as anything but disingenuous. you just cherry-picked a bad choice of words from mewt’s part and pressed on it for no good reason other than the sweet sweet shade. in what part does the second quote here contradict the first? when mewt said she misremembered she was talking with herself more than anything. there is absolutely nothing on the first post she made about our rationale for roleblock targets that says that we narrowed it down by PoE only.
>inb4 “she talked about the PoE right after the first quoted post!!1”: yes, she talked about our PoE we made right after SoD. as in, SoD2. after all night actions had taken place.

The remaining options would have been me, MP7 and whichever of Mist or Trebek is not the third member of your team.

i am very interested in hearing more about why you assume that bbt is w/w with us.

@Redstrykephoenix is the announcer flavowriting the only power you have?

also in mewt's hypoteam i would probably soonest replace koko as of right now
but i'm mildly convinced that trebek is mafia

-m

Started thinking about yourself in third person? Trying to hide which one of you is posting? The world may never know.
(Further evidence coming in just a moment, if nothing else distracts me.)

once again, disingenuous. no other explanation i can fathom. have you ever been in a hydra, koko? have you ever had to deal with the pressure about having to be clear about your own identity every time you post? what is the difference between saying “in mewt’s hypoteam” and “in my (mewt) hypoteam”? why would we make a point on signing every post if we wanted to leave our identities unclear? and even if we were trying to muddle identities, why in the world would we want to do that, regardless of alignment? this is gratuitous shade over something that doesn’t even make sense to begin with. once again you’re grasping at arbitrary word choices as if they meant anything and trying to warp reality around you to make it become relevant. following this up with a promise for “further evidence” is an insult to the word evidence

@Trebek, if you're town, I highly advise you to stop responding to raritini now. She's trying to milk you for information and you've already given away a lot. While I might not necessarily be able to provide definitive proof that she's mafia, I think that if your goal really is to pressure the remaining non-claimants, you ought to stop talking either way.

if this weren’t absurdly sure for anybody reading the interaction, mewt’s point was that either w!trebek was trying to avoid accountability for his claims and planning to craft the perfect framing after everyone claimed or the mafia could spin v!trebek’s inforeveal post-claim as something fake coming from mafia. how hard is it to grasp this? i’m sure it’s not at all hard for you, from what i know of your game.

[in response to why w!tbh² wouldn’t roleblock jack]
Because he's more likely to hit town, and if he hits town, he dies, as per his claim.

to quote a famous chicken, i was expecting something weak, but not this weak. do you really think that a vig’s shot is essentially random after having, you know, read literally sixty pages of game? by saying that “he’s more likely to hit town” either you’re implying that jack is a subpar vig or you’re employing very bad statistics – and possibly naïvely so, although i highly doubt that when considering the rest of the evidence pointing at you being scum.
don’t get me wrong, i understand that mafia could gamble on jack misfiring and taking two extra townies down in one night and that is perfectly understandable. us not blocking jack isn’t necessarily evidence that we’re not mafia. but your counterargument is flimsier than a blade of grass

on that note…

Jack's role, given the lack of information everyone was operating under at the start of N1, was always more likely to be lethal to him than to the mafia. I would have thought you would be delighted for him to try to get a shot off.

tbqh i agree that jack shouldn’t have shot. i don’t think it was bad play, it’s just that i don’t think it was worth the gamble. but you’re still implying that even after over 60 pages of posts he couldn’t possibly correctly rule out four players to kill.

But there were "other PRs to be taken care of"! Why does being unclaimed make them less likely to be problematic? I already outlined how I thought you might have slimmed down the list of unclaimed players to who was likely to have a problematic PR (to repeat: me, MP7, and whichever of Mist and Trebek isn't the third mafioso).

because mafia wouldn’t even know how powerful their roles are, if at all? how gambling on blocking what could be a VT would be better than literally blocking a vig
in the end of the day this all was just an argument about “is it better scumplay to gamble on jack shooting a townie and dying or is it better to be safe and block him while we kill the cop?”, and frankly nothing coming out of this could ever point to us as either being mafia or being town. what it does point at though is you trying to spin this as evidence to our alignment, which, frankly.

Oh, it's definitely possible for him to be a wolf - which is why I specifically said "if you're town" to him. But if he is, then he might well be lying about his inforole anyway, so what would have been the point of trying to give him advice about how to use it?

i’m tired of using this word but you’re making me use it again. disingenuous. sure, let’s not ever give advice in thread because there is a chance we’re giving tips for the mafia, even when said tip wouldn’t even be useful if the tipped was mafia and lying.

it actually almost makes me think that there isn't a w!roleblocker given that jack was allowed to shoot but that is bad spec
-m

yeah, i agree that it’s less likely that there isn’t a wolf roleblocker, but i think i can see some of our fellow players taking the gamble of letting jack shoot tbh.

I do believe that Mawile is a doctor, because of the flavour, but there's no way he's town-aligned.

oh, I just realised I haven't actually voted for tbh², oops :P

BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA OH MY GOD REALLY
so let me put this into perspective: you are a town PR. you are counterclaimed. there is literally no way both you and your counterclaim are town-aligned and telling the truth unless the GMs are clinically insane. you are in LYLO. therefore… you vote on some bloke you find scummy and let the mechanically confirmed scum live another day. on LyLo. yeah. sure. makes absolutely perfect sense.

I did consider picking him as my wagon of choice. But as I've said a couple of times: I don't think town is winning this without taking a risk or two. So I'm taking a risk based on my knowledge that you can easily stop me healing anyone on N2 (by blocking me), while he can't.

if you were a shitty player i would patiently explain why this isn’t logical, but you are not. you are doing the same thing qva did in tvt when i had a redcheck on mf and she somehow convinced town to lynch rnp, only this time we are on fucking lylo. unbelievable.

with the caveat that i don’t think koko/tbh w/w makes sense

i mean as w/w they could claim that koko healed VF and tbh roleblocked koko and that's how the VF kill went through
since the kill wasn't on m+7 due to me healing her and me not being roleblocked

uuuuh if we’re w/w wouldn’t it be easier for us to say that we roleblocked you? and then, like, avoid all of this conflict that very obviously includes a wolf?

this admittedly may be WIFOM, but i feel like w!koko would have been way more excited to immediately vote mawile

why do you think so tbh? because i think exactly the opposite. v!koko would feel ecstatic about catching a wolf and would vote mawile in eir claimpost. w!koko is fishing for a possibly easier lynch, is my guess.

Yes, going after an unclaimed PR is perhaps not the traditional received wisdom, but as I've explained, I think that it would have been the right choice given the circumstances, and would have had a strong chance of providing immense benefit to the scumteam. As it did, in fact.

I refuse to believe that you would slavishly stick to "common scumplay principles", or whatever, even when a reasonably obvious better option was available.

even i am getting tired of this word, but disingenuous is the best descriptor of your wolfplay. you KNOW that mewt and i would take decisions together and you KNOW that i always advocate for the safer bet as scum because you were scum with me for the entirety of cats. reasonably obvious better option my foot.

@Anyone who cares: Yes, I will switch to Mawile before EoD if it becomes apparent that a raritini yeet is not going to happen. But I continue to believe that it is the best option and will keep pushing for it.

i do not doubt this considering that no way you and mawile are w/w, but it makes me wonder why are you so adamant on lynching us instead of mawile given that both would achieve the same thing for your team. maybe because you’re afraid of being roleblocked ad infinitum and losing your sweet night actions? i truly don’t know; what i do know though is that it is literally impossible that you are not taking a shot at powerwolfing at this very moment. i say tonight we eat roast chicken. kokorico

lastly, sorry if i came of as rude at some point; that is definitely not my intention but you must understand how incredibly tilting is the position i find myself in at the moment, especially considering that some people read this entire exchange and somehow didn’t notice that koko is making an effort to warp each and every word that we speak to frame us.

— rari

 

[Redstrykephoenix]

longer post wins
koko