Cats (2019) Mafia

[mewtini]

bad theory: the n0 mafia kill was stopped and the vig killed Mawile. I am choosing not to believe in this theory because damn vig, that would be harsh.

or maybe odd-number-night vigilante?

 

[mewtini]

(ftr i subscribe to "vig just didn't fire n0" though.)

i was about to agree with you but idk about this since VM said he had Secret Reasons but was doubting his read/beginning to feel weird about me :p

also i didn't explain this well enough. i was just thinking that if he were genuinely copbaiting he would have tried to actually stand by his """check""" on me so as to bait mafia into the kill, idk if someone else said that and i missed it but

 

[Keldeo]

rari - I mean, what is conveyed by saying "n0 mewtini" is "if I am the cop, my n0 check is mewtini, so I will act as though she is confirmed town to me in order to keep up pretenses of being the cop." It's not good to "drop cover" and contradict that later on because then the mafia will know you're actually the cop, haha. To me, this is substantially similar to "mewtini, I have a reason to townread you - therefore, I'm acting as though you're town to me." Does this make sense? I don't think it's super productive to keep talking about this one point because what interests me more about your read is how you came to it.

Like... at the core, I'm still not sure why you think VM is an alien based on that rather than, like, a mafia faking a scumread on someone you think is town? Or a town who really does scumread said town, because you think VM's scumread is only fake if it's in the alien-him world where it's faked? idk, does this question make sense to you.

also if VM is alien it doesn't impact the veracity of his kyeugh read

mewtini, what rari's read rests on is that VM's supposed alien plan involves kyeugh flipping town, which would flip suspicion onto himself - as a result, I'm trying to get into rari's head and wondering what about his read seems non-genuine to rari. re: game setup, from what Jack posted in the signup thread I think any alien would count under the "not mafia" count, yeah.

If the kill got /deflected/ onto Seshas somehow then probably don't speak up, though, because that only guarantees a townie rather than a mafia. I think.

Can you clarify what you mean by "that only guarantees a townie rather than a mafia"? I don't think I follow.

To be clear, I was speculating about the situations of X having redirected Y's action to target Seshas, in which case Y could be mafia carrying the nightkill, versus X having deflected actions targeting Y in order to target Seshas, in which case Y could be town (because they'd be the mafia's target). I think this is what mewtini was saying at the time this was posted.

 

[mewtini]

To me, this is substantially similar to "mewtini, I have a reason to townread you - therefore, I'm acting as though you're town to me."

but this is what i'm saying. he's not acting like i'm town to him;

i think you are town for Reasons™, though admittedly i'm a bit less sure than i was before

 

[Keldeo]

Ohh, okay, that makes sense to me. I guess we were all talking past each other, lol.

mewtini, how do you feel about the fact of rari's making that read? It feels out of left field + "evidence of background processing"-y to me, which strikes me as vaguely similar to how I remember town them in TVTropes, like... digging up new angles on things, even if those things had been foregrounded in the thread discussion.

(also, I am going to keep townreading them for mentioning their spreadsheet until they inevitably do it as mafia, and you can't stop me.)

 

[mewtini]

(also, I am going to keep townreading them for mentioning their spreadsheet until they inevitably do it as mafia, and you can't stop me.)

haaahahahaha

also i agree, i think she's been playing pretty similar to how she was in tvt for a while now? i guess i could see (tenuously related) flashbacks to w!kokorico trying to posit mawile as alien - i mostly bring this up so that anyone else who thinks of it sees this first - but this is like, fairly different. with the context that rari is still my strongest TR/one of my hypoclears

 

[mewtini]

saying for posterity that i feel faintly weird about herbe's reply post

 

[mewtini]

re: game setup, from what Jack posted in the signup thread I think any alien would count under the "not mafia" count, yeah.

this sucks tbh.

 

[rari_teh]

It's not good to "drop cover" and contradict that later on because then the mafia will know you're actually the cop, haha.

did you drop a “not” here or I’m more sleep-deprived than I thought I was?

Like... at the core, I'm still not sure why you think VM is an alien based on that rather than, like, a mafia faking a scumread on someone you think is town? Or a town who really does scumread said town, because you think VM's scumread is only fake if it's in the alien-him world where it's faked? idk, does this question make sense to you.

ok I definitely didn’t express myself right: alien!VM is just a theory that’s been bugging me for the last few hours, not what I think is more likely to be the case
I think he’s most likely either a townie who scumreads kyeugh (though that wouldn’t explain his shift in behaviour) or a mafioso who tried to mislynch kyeugh (but that wouldn’t explain the Tofu clear thing except maybe by hopes of clearing by association? probably not)

I also think there’s a nonzero chance that his scumread on kyeugh is fabricated because her votes legit made sense in real time, so it wouldn’t be too much of a stretch for alien!VM/mafia!VM to conveniently take them out of context and craft a spurious correlation

 

[mewtini]

did you drop a “not” here or I’m more sleep-deprived than I thought I was?

he said it correctly, i think. if you hypocop and later forget/"drop" cover then mafia immediately knows to pass you over in their cop hunt

I also think there’s a nonzero chance that his scumread on kyeugh is fabricated because her votes legit made sense in real time, so it wouldn’t be too much of a stretch for alien!VM/mafia!VM to conveniently take them out of context and craft a spurious correlation

yeah this is the flipside to "VM is so out there that he's probably just town" and is also why i went lowkey sicko mode earlier today before i collected myself :p

 

[mewtini]

OH omg keldeo did drop the 'not,' sorry!

 

[mewtini]

i kind of think that if i were more honest with myself i'd want to start wagoning vm, but i'm afraid of pulling a "mewt during RNP lynch" and just witchhunting people whose posts i especially disagree with

 

[rari_teh]

btw to clear any possible confusion: my goal venting my theory was to see if it actually made sense or not, not to start a vm wagon
I think Emmy is currently looking way worse than VM; we can scrutinize him more extensively by toMorrow and then maybe start a wagon if our conclusion leans toward alien!vm, provided that the vig and the mafia don’t shoot him N2

 

[Keldeo]

Oops, yeah, dropped a "not" - sorry about that. That makes more sense, Rari, thanks.


On that note, where I weigh in on the VM/kyeugh discussion:

My thought on the read itself is that I disagree with VM's initial assertion that kyeugh is more scummy because she led wagons onto villagers, in a vacuum. I do think that fact is potentially scum-indicative because my impression of mafia kyeugh is that she's somewhat hesitant to bus/more likely to just push villagers, and also kind of agenda-y in doing so, but it's not damning to me because town can be wrong, and I agree with Butterfree in that I see no real motive for mafia kyeugh to self-incriminate in that way by killing Seshas the next night.

My own thoughts about Skylar herself are that she felt fairly not agenda-y and relaxed early on, and that was the root of my early townread on her. I thought she also had a decent reaction to my push on Trebek, although her initial reaction to my vote could have been TMI of me as town, and her pushing that there was a mafia in the conversation between me/her/Trebek/rari/mewtini feels a little off given that I ended up townreading everyone there. I'm gonna put a pin in looking back at her votes from yesterday.

My thoughts on what it says about VM are... hm. The statistics thing seemed kind of excessive, like he was pushing on something that looks bad rather than is bad (although I know he said that wasn't the actual point). But it still seems like kind of a bold move for mafia at this stage. I do also want to pull out this post -

If kyeugh is mafia, then I also believe that rari_teh is mafia.

what correlation are you seeing?

Similar, possibly coordinated voting patterns, also rari_teh has been extremely quick to defend kyeugh

This is not un-fakeable, but it's decent evidence imo (along with the Ultracool/Skylar w/w read) that VM has been like, actually thinking about the ramifications of his SRs and stuff. So that makes me think the read is ~more likely genuine.

I definitely think VM is not w/w with Skylar for this - Skylar's sort of shruggy/blase reaction to being pushed made me think it could be that way, but on balance, I just don't think a VM/Skylar team gains from VM going after her like this.

 

[mewtini]

btw to clear any possible confusion: my goal venting my theory was to see if it actually made sense or not, not to start a vm wagon
I think Emmy is currently looking way worse than VM; we can scrutinize him more extensively by toMorrow and then maybe start a wagon if our conclusion leans toward alien!vm, provided that the vig and the mafia don’t shoot him N2

yeah thanks for clarifying! i didn't mean that i'm pro-VM wagon rn, i just mean that my gut feelings are very like >:( but i've talked extensively about how he's not actually my main scumlean or anything like that. just a big ? in my brain rn. (i'd probably poke at superjolt/emmy/maybe trebek, i forget who else, before that)

her pushing that there was a mafia in the conversation between me/her/Trebek/rari/mewtini feels a little off given that I ended up townreading everyone there.

oh, a q: do you not feel weird about trebek's reaction coming out of it? i thought he was kind of performative in agreeing with/solidifying skylar's stance there

i don't think the "similar, possibly coordinated voting patterns" quote really means the same thing to me as it does to you honestly

my impression of mafia kyeugh is that she's somewhat hesitant to bus

not to detract from everything else but didn't she bus somewhat generously last game hahahaha

 

[Keldeo]

I realize I just got done saying that I'm not sure where I land on VM and Skylar, besides "maybe v/v pending further exploration", but I'm somewhat side-eyeing people who had sort of an "I encourage where this is going, but hey it could be wrong" reaction to his initial push. It feels like keeping options open. Primarily ILS's response below, but I also found koko and Herbe's responses looking back.

Similarly I'm not super buying VM's skylar theory but I'd still like to explore this a little bit for Science.

So I concur with VM that it seems weird for kyeugh to have hit three townies.

Something still feels off about VM's theory but I don't think it's so much of a reach that we should dismiss it out of hand

(this gets a bit of a pass maybe because e has a hypocheck on VM, and also came down on the side of VM in a part I snipped out of this quote)

vm might be tunnling/overzealous here, and I don't think the sus on kyeugh is airtight

Something still feels off about VM's theory but I don't think it's so much of a reach that we should dismiss it out of hand

^ i agree with this from kokorico.

Someone talk to me about these reactions? I'm not sure if I'm just seeing things because tired.

 

[mewtini]

i love keldeo. i love people who agree with me.

It feels like keeping options open

yes tbh

 

[mewtini]

on a less gutfeel note though it obviously is more than possible that people just didn't want to shut others down, but i just ... thought it was so weird ...

 

[Keldeo]

Sorry, I'll get to more developed Trebek thoughts in a sec. I thought I explained them fairly well yesterDay, is there something that confuses you wrt that?/can you point out specifically the performative parts so that I can take a more directed look?

my impression of mafia kyeugh is that she's somewhat hesitant to bus

not to detract from everything else but didn't she bus somewhat generously last game hahahaha

Oh no, sorry, all the words in what I was thinking didn't really translate to all the page haha. Hesitant to bus/more likely to just push villagers specifically in the early game - like, all of her major pushes in early game TVT (I'm thinking of Seshas and rari here) were town iirc.

i would probably sooner want to look at the people who flipped between myuma/stryke without giving much rationale (in the hopes of coming off towny-confused) if that makes sense

Also, sorry if you mentioned it later and I missed it, but can you tell me more about if you looked into this?

 

[Tangrowth]

Okay, I'm here! Until I fall asleep, anyway. I'm going to try to speedread and realtime.