Cats (2019) Mafia

[kyeugh]

i'm kind of depressed that no one has any comments about my wagon analysis. does anyone have any takes on it

 

[Butterfree]

I'm sorry I've been trying to reread kyeugh but it's so many posts and I keep zoning out and doing something else

I'm currently recovering from a tooth extraction on strong painkillers and should have today and tomorrow free so hopefully I can be around more?

Biggest Thoughts I've had today: yeah I don't really buy Keldeo's counterclaim at all as it stands, the 'softclaim' cited feels super weak and like something you might dig up in hindsight, not something you'd actually do to softclaim your cat. (Like, if it'd been some form of calling himself a seer in a way that seems jokey, fair enough... but just calling it "seer cover"?) Meanwhile kyeugh's claim feels... very convenient? Like, oh, I've got a one-shot power but I got blocked and can't use it anymore so I can't prove it. Not impossible that it's genuine, but it'd be a very easy claim for mafia to make and I'm kind of side-eyeing it.

Ugh. I remember at some point relatively early in the game having serious thoughts that kyeugh might be mafia but refraining from voicing them to keep up cop cover, but I can't remember why at all. Hopefully if I keep reading I'll find it again and see if it still makes sense?

 

[kyeugh]

oh one thing i will add to the wagon analysis: given that we're in mylo, i don't really think it makes any sense at all that me/keldeo are w/w, when the mafia could just pile up and almost certainly force a mislynch and end the game toNight rather than sitting by and allowing one of their own to get lynched. keldeo's thing with blu is definitely not an attempt at that, either, because if it was there'd be more than one vote there by now

 

[Trebek]

oh one thing i will add to the wagon analysis: given that we're in mylo, i don't really think it makes any sense at all that me/keldeo are w/w, when the mafia could just pile up and almost certainly force a mislynch and end the game toNight rather than sitting by and allowing one of their own to get lynched. keldeo's thing with blu is definitely not an attempt at that, either, because if it was there'd be more than one vote there by now

i mean, i feel like if the mafia wanted to force a mislynch, they wouldn’t have done it by now: showing their hand too early would blow their cover. if mafia were to pile, i would expect it to be at the end of the day, so idkidk if “mafia hadn’t piled yet” can be evidence for anything

 

[Trebek]

idk*2 apparently

love autocorrect on mobile

 

[kyeugh]

oh one thing i will add to the wagon analysis: given that we're in mylo, i don't really think it makes any sense at all that me/keldeo are w/w, when the mafia could just pile up and almost certainly force a mislynch and end the game toNight rather than sitting by and allowing one of their own to get lynched. keldeo's thing with blu is definitely not an attempt at that, either, because if it was there'd be more than one vote there by now

i mean, i feel like if the mafia wanted to force a mislynch, they wouldn’t have done it by now: showing their hand too early would blow their cover. if mafia were to pile, i would expect it to be at the end of the day, so idkidk if “mafia hadn’t piled yet” can be evidence for anything

that’s the point, yeah. they’d only have to force it if the wagons were w/w. they aren’t, and there are one or more villagers on me, so it isn’t necessary.

 

[Trebek]

oh one thing i will add to the wagon analysis: given that we're in mylo, i don't really think it makes any sense at all that me/keldeo are w/w, when the mafia could just pile up and almost certainly force a mislynch and end the game toNight rather than sitting by and allowing one of their own to get lynched. keldeo's thing with blu is definitely not an attempt at that, either, because if it was there'd be more than one vote there by now

i mean, i feel like if the mafia wanted to force a mislynch, they wouldn’t have done it by now: showing their hand too early would blow their cover. if mafia were to pile, i would expect it to be at the end of the day, so idkidk if “mafia hadn’t piled yet” can be evidence for anything

that’s the point, yeah. they’d only have to force it if the wagons were w/w. they aren’t, and there are one or more villagers on me, so it isn’t necessary.

my point was that we can’t tell if they have to or not yet, because even if they have to they likely won’t until later in the day

 

[JackPK]

Reminder: The day phase will end in 23 hours 45 minutes.

Active votes
Bluwiikoon votes Keldeo (#3757)
kyeugh votes Keldeo (#3920)
kokorico votes kyeugh (#3955)
Vipera Magnifica votes Keldeo (#3959)
Trebek votes kyeugh (#4044)
mewtini votes kyeugh (#4098)
rari_teh votes kyeugh (#4112)
Keldeo votes Bluwiikoon (#4129)

Spoiler: Full vote history

Active votes bolded.

Bluwiikoon votes Keldeo (#3757)
Trebek votes Keldeo (#3874)
mewtini votes Keldeo (#3876)
rari_teh votes Keldeo (#3887)
kyeugh votes Keldeo (#3920)
mewtini votes kyeugh (#3926)
kokorico votes kyeugh (#3955)
Vipera Magnifica votes Keldeo (#3959)
mewtini votes Keldeo (#3961)
Trebek votes kyeugh (#4044)
mewtini votes kyeugh (#4098)
rari_teh votes kyeugh (#4112)
Keldeo votes Bluwiikoon (#4129)

 

[kyeugh]

oh one thing i will add to the wagon analysis: given that we're in mylo, i don't really think it makes any sense at all that me/keldeo are w/w, when the mafia could just pile up and almost certainly force a mislynch and end the game toNight rather than sitting by and allowing one of their own to get lynched. keldeo's thing with blu is definitely not an attempt at that, either, because if it was there'd be more than one vote there by now

i mean, i feel like if the mafia wanted to force a mislynch, they wouldn’t have done it by now: showing their hand too early would blow their cover. if mafia were to pile, i would expect it to be at the end of the day, so idkidk if “mafia hadn’t piled yet” can be evidence for anything

that’s the point, yeah. they’d only have to force it if the wagons were w/w. they aren’t, and there are one or more villagers on me, so it isn’t necessary.

my point was that we can’t tell if they have to or not yet, because even if they have to they likely won’t until later in the day

that’s not really true. i don’t see why the mafia would just sit there and vibe until eod with all but one vote on scum when they could spend the day pushing a mislynch instead. (which is what’s happening.)

 

[Keldeo]

Since votes aren't locked, mafia literally don't have to commit to anything here until the last minute.

 

[Trebek]

oh one thing i will add to the wagon analysis: given that we're in mylo, i don't really think it makes any sense at all that me/keldeo are w/w, when the mafia could just pile up and almost certainly force a mislynch and end the game toNight rather than sitting by and allowing one of their own to get lynched. keldeo's thing with blu is definitely not an attempt at that, either, because if it was there'd be more than one vote there by now

i mean, i feel like if the mafia wanted to force a mislynch, they wouldn’t have done it by now: showing their hand too early would blow their cover. if mafia were to pile, i would expect it to be at the end of the day, so idkidk if “mafia hadn’t piled yet” can be evidence for anything

that’s the point, yeah. they’d only have to force it if the wagons were w/w. they aren’t, and there are one or more villagers on me, so it isn’t necessary.

my point was that we can’t tell if they have to or not yet, because even if they have to they likely won’t until later in the day

that’s not really true. i don’t see why the mafia would just sit there and vibe until eod with all but one vote on scum when they could spend the day pushing a mislynch instead. (which is what’s happening.)

because if they pushed a mislynch early, people would call it out like you are rn? i just think that this is an argument of “will they or won’t they” that we shouldn’t be drawing conclusions from

 

[Trebek]

in fact, mafia could very well allow a w/w wagon to happen, let the town split votes between which person they think is wolf, and then suddenly swing votes to a town at the last moment

 

[Novae]

I’m of the opinion that koko/Trebek/rari has a mafia who carries extra KP actually or at least an important role that mafia need to survive today

 

[Novae]

Actually, I think there’s a good chance the mafia team is just those three, keldeo, and blu

keldeo/blu flavor thunderdome doesn’t make sense because in a game with a limited number of good flavors, why wouldn’t mafia be given fakeclaims?

 

[Trebek]

I’m of the opinion that koko/Trebek/rari has a mafia who carries extra KP actually or at least an important role that mafia need to survive today

i can’t do much to defend myself here as VT, but i am incredibly doubtful about rari being mafia

like, incredibly

 

[Novae]

So like

I don’t buy Blu claiming flavor that they didn’t know wasn’t in the game as mafia
I don’t buy Keldeo setting up a crumb for flavor they didn’t know was in the game as mafia

so what does that mean?

both of them knew the flavor was not in the game and this was planned all along

 

[kyeugh]

in fact, mafia could very well allow a w/w wagon to happen, let the town split votes between which person they think is wolf, and then suddenly swing votes to a town at the last moment

if we were playing a game that actually ended exactly when the timer ran out, yes, maybe this would be a viable strategy. as it stands, all the mafia suddenly swinging to a third wagon here would do is alarm people and point out exactly who the mafia are.

you're kind of missing the point in a big way here, which is that there is no reason for the mafia to concede a lynch of one of their own here when we're in mylo and town isn't agreed on who scum is anyway. pretty much everyone left has been online and given some input, but no one has meaningfully proposed a other option, aside from keldeo's blu thing. however the game is close enough right now that if me/keldeo were w/w, you would expect there to be an attempt at a third wagon, because that is the best way for the mafia to win right now, and there's no reason to wait on it and allow these wagons to become increasingly cemented. the wagon composition points to v/w.

 

[kyeugh]

Actually, I think there’s a good chance the mafia team is just those three, keldeo, and blu

something like this tbh.

both of them knew the flavor was not in the game and this was planned all along

how would they know that?

 

[Novae]

Actually, I think there’s a good chance the mafia team is just those three, keldeo, and blu

something like this tbh.

both of them knew the flavor was not in the game and this was planned all along

how would they know that?

because it would be a provided fakeclaim tbh!

 

[kyeugh]

i have never heard of a provided fakeclaim and am pretty doubtful something like that is at play here. i don't know jack's gming style that well but it doesn't sound particularly likely to me