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Forum Revival TV Tropes Mafia Revival - D7

she also gave a n1 hypo. basically. i know that one of her hypos was correct, but she might've just coinflip guessed it
 
ok i’m really going to bed but something i just thought of:
i know i said there’s probably no vig, but with 2 town aligned doctors there HAS to be another killing faction unless the mafia is huge, right?
like, correct me if my numbers are wrong here, but if we assume the mafia is six people (which i think is the upper limit) and they only get one nightkill per night (which may not be true tbf but is standard), it would still take them until day 7 to whittle the non-mafia population down to the point of a scum victory (from 19 -> 5), and that’s assuming the doctor never saves successfully and only townies ever get lynched.
that’s seems pretty town-biased, so there has to be another killing role in play, right? lmk if that adds up to y’all
 
I gotta sleep bc it’s like 3 AM and I got classes in the morning, but I definitely want to hear an answer to that
Goodnight y’all
 
kyeugh said:
ok i’m really going to bed but something i just thought of:
i know i said there’s probably no vig, but with 2 town aligned doctors there HAS to be another killing faction unless the mafia is huge, right?
like, correct me if my numbers are wrong here, but if we assume the mafia is six people (which i think is the upper limit) and they only get one nightkill per night (which may not be true tbf but is standard), it would still take them until day 7 to whittle the non-mafia population down to the point of a scum victory (from 19 -> 5), and that’s assuming the doctor never saves successfully and only townies ever get lynched.
that’s seems pretty town-biased, so there has to be another killing role in play, right? lmk if that adds up to y’all
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actually i think maybe seven days is normal. i don’t really know. what do you guys think about this
 
kyeugh said:
actually i think maybe seven days is normal. i don’t really know. what do you guys think about this
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I think if I were making roles for a game this large I would have included some ways for there to be multiple kills per night in order to move things along faster. But I'm not Butterfree.
 
You'd also have to assume no alien (or other roles that don't get killed after one time being targeted at night) were hit for the 7 days to make sense, I think.
 
rari_teh said:
Wait a minute, how do you know one of her hypos was correct?
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oh jeez. sorry i vanished for a bit there.

this is not satisfactory but ... it's role-related info that i'd rather not entirely give away just yet, sorry, i just wanted to clear my initial cop!eif claim because i realized i'd inadvertently repeated it a weird number of times without substantiating it :T
 
right, so I'm back with more boquise quotes and- jesus okay VM just comes here to drop bombshells huh

fwiw one thing I do think about that message is that, if the one who sent it has control over who receives it, targeting VM makes a lot of sense; a bit of a gamble from the possibility that he might've been mobbed in the night, but a quasi-confirmed inno makes a safe drop place if one is willing to take that particular risk. alas, this doesn't tell us much about the veracity of the line

also, mewtini, is there at least not any chance of something that might help us determine which of Eifie's hypos is correct? I have to admit I was skeptical of the whole random-target cop biz because that's, like, a role of nothing but swing, but if there's reason to believe it's not just relish on the cop cover, I guess it's within the bounds of tv tropes mafia, maybe

anyways, do I even bother spilling the boquise quotes rn
 
M&F said:
also, mewtini, is there at least not any chance of something that might help us determine which of Eifie's hypos is correct?
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i kind of ... can't, i'm sorry :')
M&F said:
I have to admit I was skeptical of the whole random-target cop biz
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yeah i felt that this was implicitly doubted, which was why i suddenly felt compelled to at least say something honestly to validate the hypocop claim
 
Okay so I started typing this a while back and the discussion has definitely moved on; I just want to kind of throw it out there so it's out there but also definitely not forget about all this cop stuff. But I do have to tap out for the night, so first:

I guess I might as well admit I'm not getting any work done on what I was supposed to be doing anyway, so I'll do this now... regarding this post, kyeugh hit it nail on the head, really. I'm =/ over the apparent difference in philosophy here, and I am fully prepared to expound at length on why I think lynching non-participatory over participatory is the correct play when all else is equal, but I don't know that that would do anything but distract from actually figuring out who's mafia and is likely irrelevant now anyway, because I feel like we're headed towards suspecting someone at least semi-active today. So I won't go there unless you really want me to go there, lol

I think that mostly covers it? Except:

basically the tldr as of now is that i thought negrek was putting undue effort into defending ILS, and this was honestly why i stayed the course with ILS and didn't switch to otter during this part of EoD. however, negrek then issued a post that i now kind of view as an attempt to appease ... someone? me? idk:
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I changed my vote in response to Boquise's post about ILS' death providing more information than RNP's. I had been thinking of things purely from a perspective of "which one of these people in a vacuum is it going to be the most useful to lynch," while Boquise's was talking about looking at how other people reacted to the prospect of their being lynched. I thought Boquise had a good point and was willing if reluctant to switch my vote on the grounds that it would be more useful for ILS to die than RNP.

Clearly I should have done more to defend ILS, but at the time I didn't see much point: my only argument against not lynching him was that I thought the evidence for him being mafia was weak, and I couldn't point to anyone who would make a better target. It wasn't like I had any evidence of my own that could exonerate him. And between him and Ottercopter, I thought he was the one more likely to be mafia (but my most likely scenario was that neither of them were, which is why I had wanted to vote for someone entirely different). I am no longer so hot on Ottercopter (more on that later), but that was why I changed my vote to ILS and stuck there even after people started bailing.

Right now what's most interesting to me, aside from this mess with VM that I don't know what to do with at the moment and need to think about more, is what happened at EoD yesterday with everyone shuffling around their votes, and also how/why Boquise was the one to go down last night. These are things I hope to look into more deeply in the future.

Oh, and also what's up with Ottercopter is of a great deal of interest to me. I was really feeling like she was innocent yesterday, but, uh, that has definitely changed. I am especially unimpressed with the whole "I'll claim but not until 10 minutes before the end of the day!" thing, which has been walked back, but we're still looking at more than two days' wait before claiming? Like, the excuse is that she doesn't want to derail the discussion with info about her role, but I think that it's going to be a lot more deraily to have this claim dropped late in the discussion, when people will have already started forming opinions on who we might want to vote for at the end of the day and who might have to completely revise them in light of the new information. I think we want to get everything out on the table as quickly as possible so we have the maximum amount of time to consider the evidence with as full a context as possible. To me it looks like Ottercopter's playing for time to come up with some kind of defense for her really weird claim and/or hoping that if she can deflect and put it off long enough that people might forget about it. I am also really weirded out by the fact that she made that "I win if lynched" claim at all, since she was on her way to lynching (as far as she knew? Apparently she miscounted?)... Like, if she actually won if lynched, all she was doing there was giving people a huge incentive to jump off the train. If you win by getting lynched, the correct thing to do if you find yourself staring down a lynch is... to not say anything. So if she doesn't actually win by getting lynched, to me it seems like the most likely explanation is that she was mafia making a desperate last-ditch attempt to deflect votes. She could also be innocent and have just blurted that out because she didn't want to die, even though it would be a really bad choice! But the way she's been behaving since doesn't seem terribly innocent to me.

ALSO, someone asked ages ago (sorry too lazy to dredge this up) if I had e-mail alerts for the PM's I deleted pertaining to the last TVTropes Mafia. This is a good angle, but unfortunately I've never had e-mail notifications from TCoD turned on.
 
the mewtini/cop stuff is weird and i genuinely don't know what to think
negrek i actually quite like your longpost and i have better overall vibes for you now
its too early in the morning for this tho, i have a headache. I'll catch you guys later
 
Negrek said:
I changed my vote in response to Boquise's post about ILS' death providing more information than RNP's. I had been thinking of things purely from a perspective of "which one of these people in a vacuum is it going to be the most useful to lynch," while Boquise's was talking about looking at how other people reacted to the prospect of their being lynched. I thought Boquise had a good point and was willing if reluctant to switch my vote on the grounds that it would be more useful for ILS to die than RNP.

Clearly I should have done more to defend ILS, but at the time I didn't see much point: my only argument against not lynching him was that I thought the evidence for him being mafia was weak, and I couldn't point to anyone who would make a better target. It wasn't like I had any evidence of my own that could exonerate him. And between him and Ottercopter, I thought he was the one more likely to be mafia (but my most likely scenario was that neither of them were, which is why I had wanted to vote for someone entirely different). I am no longer so hot on Ottercopter (more on that later), but that was why I changed my vote to ILS and stuck there even after people started bailing.
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this part of your post (i haven't finished reading, will get there in a bit) makes sense, thanks for explaining this to me!
 
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