Meowfia

[Eifie]

Two reasons I can think of why the mafia might want to go for DarkAura:
- she was one of the only people being townread by anyone else yesterday (I'm not sure if anyone else even had any townreads yesterday? Butterfree seems to TR MF.)
- her push on RNP near EoD.

RNP's arguments against DarkAura were, well, not very good ones. He misrepresented her activity in the game a lot with statements that actually seemed to better apply to himself. He's been playing purely reactively. I said before that I don't know how to distinguish between scummy town RNP and scum RNP but maybe this really is that simple and I was just being an idiot. I want to start here for today.

Vote: RedneckPhoenix

Gonna try to look at some older games of his to figure it out, but idk how useful that'll be since we're doing a different style of play in this game.

(Yes I know WIFOM and framing people with nightkills etc.)

 

[RNP]

It's- what? You just pointed out the reason that would be stupid for me to do. The mafia, expecting me to be a bad player (because I sort of am) would kill my main accuser and a very proactive player, to kill two birds with one scone, making me suspicious and taking the heat off themselves.

I don't like how you're voting right off the bat before discussion can even start. You're falling right into the mafia's trap like that.

 

[Eifie]

It's- what? You just pointed out the reason that would be stupid for me to do. The mafia, expecting me to be a bad player (because I sort of am) would kill my main accuser and a very proactive player, to kill two birds with one scone, making me suspicious and taking the heat off themselves.

I don't like how you're voting right off the bat before discussion can even start. You're falling right into the mafia's trap like that.

I don't want to read a huge amount into the nightkill because it's just a crapshoot what level of WIFOM the mafia were operating on, but it did make me look at your exchange with DarkAura again.

Me voting doesn't mean that this is my final decision for the day and I just plan to do nothing for the rest of it. It's just where I would like to put pressure right now.

What pings me a lot about your response here is that you said you don't like something I'm doing, in a way that you would do if you were going to express suspicion of me (which would be quite reasonable here)... but then you say I'm "falling right into the mafia's trap", i.e., apparently I'm not one of them in your mind. Kind of seems like TMI? Someone else chime in on this, please.

 

[Flora]

So what we know is that darkaura didn’t investigate rnp, yeah?

I don’t necessarily think that DA bein axed means that RNP is maf...but it is a possibility!

 

[I liek Squirtles]

Well, this is incredibly frustrating. We're at LyLo right now, right?

 

[RNP]

nnno. right? 4-2, also a doc still. it's a weak MyLo i think. if we lynch wrong, ded.

 

[Butterfree]

So what we know is that darkaura didn’t investigate rnp, yeah?

Wait, what? What do you mean by this? (I mean, presumably she targeted Eifie because that was the plan, but. Not sure what you're getting at with this comment.)

RNP's response there felt reeally defensive and pretty scummy, but on the other hand, like Eifie, I feel like he often comes across that way even when he isn't scum, so it's hard to say for sure. It does strike me as very simplistic for the mafia to go for killing the person who was just accusing them; could be done as a "they'll never guess we actually did the silly simplistic thing!", I guess, but I don't feel like the meta usually operates at that level here.

DarkAura being killed kind of gave me pause; I was expecting them to go for Eifie, MF or me as the people most active in trying to solve the game, particularly since we ended yesterday with none of us seeming to be under serious suspicion (or at least I was feeling pretty good about Eifie too when I caught up after the end of the day, especially with her volunteering to be investigated), and one would think they'd want to disrupt a budding town alliance.

So I went back and it struck me that DarkAura is clearly the person who expresses the most proactive interest in Eifie's investigation plan, asking who she has in mind to investigate and clarifying the plan. In hindsight, it seems clear that's because she was the cop, which kind of makes sense: surely if a plan is being proposed involving you using your power, you'd be interested and want to hash out the details. What if the mafia guessed that DarkAura was the cop based on her response to the plan and targeted her because of that?

With that, it occurred to me that, in theory, scum!Eifie could have proposed the investigation plan in the hope of being able to make such an educated guess as to who the cop was, and offered herself for investigation as a gamble for near-foolproof town cred: making that offer at all made her sound almost definitely town, and then conveniently the cop dies before being able to actually confirm. (Presumably, in this scenario, if the response to the plan hadn't given the mafia a strong hunch as to who the cop was, they'd just have proposed investigating someone else instead; if they'd been wrong about DarkAura, then, well, at least the real cop would presumably reveal themselves today and the remaining mafia member could definitely get rid of them tonight.)

...I dunno, I may be wayyy overthinking this; this sounds super-complicated and risky. Still, the fact it occurred to me makes me unable to entirely dismiss it; Eifie could still be mafia. Did anyone yesterday guess DarkAura was the cop based on her posts? It's hard to tell how plausible that'd be.

 

[Flora]

Wait, what? What do you mean by this? (I mean, presumably she targeted Eifie because that was the plan, but. Not sure what you're getting at with this comment.)

Apologies for non-clarity! I’m on phone. My thought process there was that she voted for RNP alongside several others whom I couldn’t remember, which meant that RNP probs wasn’t her investigation target n1. In retrospect I maybe should have waited till I got my tablet back, but I was annoyed at myself for not voting yesterday. So I. Posted before thinking. Bad mafia strategy, Flora.

I was surprised that DA was the cop? But also, there wasn’t much at all to go off of.

 

[Eifie]

Flora is either derping or fake-derping really hard and idk if I should clear her for it

 

[Eifie]

Flora is either derping or fake-derping really hard and idk if I should clear them for it

edit by reposting, sorry

 

[Eifie]

2am thoughts

I think RNP/ILS is the most probable wolf team at the moment

AMA

 

[Eifie]

k I'm awake. No one asked me anything but that's fine I guess.

1. I think Butterfree is town. #127 is just so villagery. She like, comes up with an improbable thought and just chases it all the way to its conclusion and I really, really don't think a wolf just comes up with a theory like that and decides to share it with us. I hope this makes sense because otherwise I'm having a really hard time articulating how towny that is. I was already feeling decent about her after her responses to me yesterday but that post makes me a lot more confident.
   
2. For obvious reasons I put a lot of thought into possible wolf team compositions including MF on D1. I do not think MF can be teamed with RNP or ILS:
   • A big part of why I don't think MF/RNP can be w/w is MF's post #23. I really, really don't think wolf MF purposely avoids voting her partner here. It was still RVS, she would have a myriad of easy excuses to later change her vote, and random-voting DarkAura for something RNP did first just calls attention to the fact that she didn't vote RNP. It'd be pretty silly. And there's no way wolf MF is afraid of voting her partner there.
   • I don't think MF/ILS can be teamed because of MF's post #42. Wolves don't forget that their partner is in the game, and wolves notice when their partner hasn't posted yet. I think it is so improbable that she could be faking that that I'm not willing to consider it.
3. I want to derpclear Flora. This is the part I'm most shaky on. I have decided that I definitely don't think they're fake-derping, that's just not a thing in tcodf meta. Flora is clearly unaware of multiple important things that happened in the thread yesterday (important imo, anyway) and that suggests that they don't have a wolf partner who is talking to them about the game. I think wolves must have had a decent grasp on the thread to make that DarkAura kill. Some of the parts that are shaky here is that maybe the wolves could just not be talking to each other, or maybe the things Flora is unaware of just didn't come up. The temptation to derpclear is really strong, though.

So from the living players, if I exclude myself and Butterfree (1) and for the moment Flora (3), that leaves: MF, ILS, RNP. By (2), I'm crossing out the options of MF/ILS and MF/RNP. That leaves ILS/RNP as the most likely possibility in my view.

Thoughts?

 

[Eifie]

DA's comments don't strike me as particularly scummy so far, but that could just be me.

RNP, though, strikes me as much scummier, with the sudden vote for M&F. If I learned something from the one (1) non-tcodf mafia game I played, is that the mafia prefer to latch onto bandwagons rather than start one. I realize I'm doing the exact same thing, but it's not unprompted (unlike when RNP did it). I'm also not satisfied with his justification for the vote.

Okay, this is giving me pause. Given the timing of this it really doesn't seem like a bussing vote.

Maybe I'm wrong to derpclear Flora, then.

 

[Flora]

Flora is clearly unaware of multiple important things that happened in the thread yesterday (important imo, anyway)

I reread the thread, lost track of time and forgot to vote, and then honestly forgot a lot of what I read. I definitely should have held off on posting till I got my tablet and could rereread the thread. Being a Flora is suffering.

But! I shouldn’t be making entire posts shorting in myself! That’s bad form.

I’m...inclined to agree re: butterfree as town, and I’m a biiiit more questioning towards RNP and ILS, but I also haven’t really played enough mafia with them to get a feel for how they typically play. So!

edit by reposting, sorry

I get why editing in Mafia forum is illegal but this is like the ONE PROBLEM with it. Thanks though

 

[Eifie]

I reread the thread, lost track of time and forgot to vote, and then honestly forgot a lot of what I read. I definitely should have held off on posting till I got my tablet and could rereread the thread. Being a Flora is suffering.

But! I shouldn’t be making entire posts shorting in myself! That’s bad form.

I’m...inclined to agree re: butterfree as town, and I’m a biiiit more questioning towards RNP and ILS, but I also haven’t really played enough mafia with them to get a feel for how they typically play. So!

Nah, I appreciate getting your thoughts from before you reread the thread. Who would you have voted yesterday?

I don't know if you've reread yet (you don't need to before answering), but do you mind giving me a quick rundown on stuff that happened in the thread on d1 from your pov?

 

[I liek Squirtles]

I went back and reread the EoD discussion between DA and RNP (#92-#93) and the way he tried to kind of discredit DA felt incredibly shifty to me. Overall, whenever someone's come after him, he tries to redirect the blame to someone else. I might be overthinking this whole thing, but it reads very scummily to me.

RNP

 

[M&F]

my god I have no concept of what 48 hours is anymore how long have we been rolling

ahem

So, I'm withholding the vote for now because it's too early for the bandwagon to go up to 3, but RedneckPhoenix is still looking like prime lynch material today. Nothing's quite cleared him since our last sojourn, and this choice of nightkill is one that can possibly be attributed to suspicion control. (A framing kill, on the other hand, is significantly less likely, because presumably the proper target for one such would be yours truly. Going after DarkAura is subtler, perhaps, but there's no point in being too subtle if your gambit is reliant on the townsfolk noticing something.)

Regardless, we are at MyLo, so, any lynch is a gamble with the whole pot. Doesn't mean we should necessarily abstain -- gambling is better than just losing slower -- but no amount of scrutinity is too small.

There were no night actions N0, were there? Alas, if DarkAura had gotten any investigations in, we might've had the opportunity to go see if we could glean past results from her behavior.

With that, it occurred to me that, in theory, scum!Eifie could have proposed the investigation plan in the hope of being able to make such an educated guess as to who the cop was, and offered herself for investigation as a gamble for near-foolproof town cred: making that offer at all made her sound almost definitely town, and then conveniently the cop dies before being able to actually confirm. (Presumably, in this scenario, if the response to the plan hadn't given the mafia a strong hunch as to who the cop was, they'd just have proposed investigating someone else instead; if they'd been wrong about DarkAura, then, well, at least the real cop would presumably reveal themselves today and the remaining mafia member could definitely get rid of them tonight.)

...I dunno, I may be wayyy overthinking this; this sounds super-complicated and risky. Still, the fact it occurred to me makes me unable to entirely dismiss it; Eifie could still be mafia. Did anyone yesterday guess DarkAura was the cop based on her posts? It's hard to tell how plausible that'd be.

There's a certain level of gambit beyond which, if anyone were actually pulling it off, they might as well win.

Flora is either derping or fake-derping really hard and idk if I should clear her for it

Derping isn't really alignment-indicative, is it?

A big part of why I don't think MF/RNP can be w/w is MF's post #23. I really, really don't think wolf MF purposely avoids voting her partner here. It was still RVS, she would have a myriad of easy excuses to later change her vote, and random-voting DarkAura for something RNP did first just calls attention to the fact that she didn't vote RNP. It'd be pretty silly. And there's no way wolf MF is afraid of voting her partner there.

Right, since I'm giving you the benefit of doubt a little more, I might as well explain the joke from D1. I was bandwagonning on DarkAura for bandwagonning. Hypocritical humour. Ha-ha.

You can read as little or as much further into it as you'd like, anyway, although personally I wouldn't recommend reading all that much.

 

[RNP]

Overall, whenever someone's come after him, he tries to redirect the blame to someone else. I might be overthinking this whole thing, but it reads very scummily to me.

RNP

yeah, and? you're all trying to "clear" people, but that just doesn't make sense in a time when the cop is dead and nobody can really be cleared.

the only thing i /can/ do is go at someone else. really, clearing myself is impossible. nobody can really be cleared. what I can do, however, upon accusation, is bring attention to someone suspicious. i, personally, don't trust Flora, because from lack of informed messages I can't get a read, but i won't vote just yet.

 

[Eifie]

Derping isn't really alignment-indicative, is it?

See my later post explaining what I meant, if you haven't already. It's my weakest read by a long shot, though.

Right, since I'm giving you the benefit of doubt a little more, I might as well explain the joke from D1. I was bandwagonning on DarkAura for bandwagonning. Hypocritical humour. Ha-ha.

You can read as little or as much further into it as you'd like, anyway, although personally I wouldn't recommend reading all that much.

Yeah, I know that part. The point is that RNP did it first. Unless you mean it was a bandwagon once there were two people already on it...? omg please just let me hold on to this not w/w read, it makes things so much easier

 

[Eifie]

I have more stuff I want to comment on, but there's probably too much of me in the thread rn and idk if that's productive so I'm going to sit back for a little while, I think. @ me if you specifically want me to reply to something.