Meowfia

[Flora]

Nah, I appreciate getting your thoughts from before you reread the thread. Who would you have voted yesterday?

I don't know if you've reread yet (you don't need to before answering), but do you mind giving me a quick rundown on stuff that happened in the thread on d1 from your pov?

Oh Christ thanks autocorrect for “shorting in” myself. Phones are hard. (Also i FORGOT THERE WERE NO N0 ACTIONS. that explains a lot of the dumb!)

Honestly, I was debating going for RNP before the reread, and I think? That’s where I’m leaning still? We’ll see.

As for what i recall of d1: eif and m&f debating back-and-forth, putting each other up for noms (which at some point switched to RNP v Eif?), DA nomming RNP before/after nominating....someone else I can’t remember? (Or was that Keldeo. That may have been a joke moderator nomination, now that I think about it.), ILS nominating RNP...

I didn’t reread yet, and I’m going to as soon as I post this, but I do stand by my particular wariness of ILS and RNP, at least from today. Squirtles has been p accusatory out of the gate, and RNP’s been quite, quite over-defensive. I want to reread before I draw proper conclusions on eif and M&F?

 

[M&F]

I want to derpclear Flora. This is the part I'm most shaky on. I have decided that I definitely don't think they're fake-derping, that's just not a thing in tcodf meta. Flora is clearly unaware of multiple important things that happened in the thread yesterday (important imo, anyway) and that suggests that they don't have a wolf partner who is talking to them about the game. I think wolves must have had a decent grasp on the thread to make that DarkAura kill. Some of the parts that are shaky here is that maybe the wolves could just not be talking to each other, or maybe the things Flora is unaware of just didn't come up. The temptation to derpclear is really strong, though.

Oh, yes, I suppose that's what you meant. I don't know that that's a very strong clear; not every scum team is incredibly communicative.

Besides, it's possible to have settled on DarkAura without paying much attention to the thread as well; supposing you'd not read a damn thing, she's just about the best player here who isn't ostensibly likely to get docced. That said, though, there seems to be quite bit more of us who are on the ball than otherwise, so I suppose it's not exceptionally likely that this is the actual collective rationale.

Yeah, I know that part. The point is that RNP did it first. Unless you mean it was a bandwagon once there were two people already on it...? omg please just let me hold on to this not w/w read, it makes things so much easier

look, by the time I arrived to make the joke, he was already trying to lynch the exotic cat instead

 

[Eifie]

Oh, yes, I suppose that's what you meant. I don't know that that's a very strong clear; not every scum team is incredibly communicative.

It's definitely not very strong. It would be a lot stronger in an ideal game where wolves are communicating a lot and everyone is being active. :/

It was very tempting to apply Occam's razor when I was just thinking about things in bed at 2 am, but I think I was probably wrong to do it. What do you think of the post from ILS I quoted earlier (#80)? His vote changed things from 2-2-1 Eifie-MF-RNP to 2-2-1 Eifie-RNP-MF. He never moved it after that, so if ILS and RNP are wolves together it seems like he'd have to be hard bussing there and that is just a terrible move in a 7p cop game. Do you think that warrants an RNP/ILS exclusion? If RNP and ILS aren't teamed, I think Flora is almost certainly a wolf.

look, by the time I arrived to make the joke, he was already trying to lynch the exotic cat instead

... I totally forgot about that vote (and apparently so did DarkAura) and after however many days I finally understand oh my god

 

[RNP]

I think. I'm still not mafia. Eifie seems to think ILS is mafia. Thus. ILS.


Thank you for coming to my TED talk.

 

[Eifie]

The mafia, expecting me to be a bad player (because I sort of am) would kill my main accuser and a very proactive player

This is literally the opposite of the opinion you had on DarkAura at the end of D1...

I think. I'm still not mafia. Eifie seems to think ILS is mafia. Thus. ILS.


Thank you for coming to my TED talk.

You are aware that if we lynch wrong here the game is basically lost, right? So why don't you have any of your own thoughts? What happened to accusing Flora, and why are you apparently so sure I can be trusted when your opinion earlier seemed to be that for some reason we shouldn't be having any opinions on who is town?

tbh I don't know how much I want to engage with this because I think RNP has gone well beyond scummy town at this point and I can't see him not being the lynch today...

 

[Butterfree]

[*]I don't think MF/ILS can be teamed because of MF's post #42. Wolves don't forget that their partner is in the game, and wolves notice when their partner hasn't posted yet. I think it is so improbable that she could be faking that that I'm not willing to consider it.

Hmm. I'm not quite sure. The original post being referenced in #42 is #29, the post where MF turns around to attack you:

Great! Now that we seem to be largely done with poking inactives and the kid gloves are off, I can start voicing how suspicious it sounded that Eifie was scoping me out for a "town alliance" on D1, joke or no joke. Turning on me when I show no signs of cooperating -- and trying to use that as a scumread -- isn't a great look either.

That says largely done with poking inactives, and it's mainly just referring to how the game's moved on to the serious accusations stage. Furthermore, it's an off-hand statement in a sort of an emotionally charged post, something you wouldn't be thinking particularly hard about. All in all, I can easily picture MF making this post even if ILS was her partner and still inactive. And given she's made that post, #42 makes sense either way - in fact, it'd be a nice way to distance if they were a team, by retroactively making it sound like MF was making a stronger statement on poking inactives.

(A framing kill, on the other hand, is significantly less likely, because presumably the proper target for one such would be yours truly. Going after DarkAura is subtler, perhaps, but there's no point in being too subtle if your gambit is reliant on the townsfolk noticing something.)

I'm... not sure about that? You did vote for RNP, yeah, but you only talked about him in that one post, which was mostly not even about him; your initial aggressive suspicion of Eifie was a fair bit more memorable, at least to me, and meanwhile DarkAura was prominently questioning RNP towards the end of the day - my overall feeling before rereading, at least, was that the main person grilling RNP was DarkAura rather than you.

There's a certain level of gambit beyond which, if anyone were actually pulling it off, they might as well win.

Haha, that's a fair point. I realize it's super-elaborate and far-fetched, but it was a train of thought that I had and it does explain the mafia's luck in getting the cop first try! I will be extremely impressed if that's actually it, though.

So, hrmm. I'm not ready to dismiss the possibility of MF/ILS at this point; it may be my best guess at the mafia team at the moment, actually, since viewed in that light #42 does have a potential air of grabbing an opportunity to seem completely unaware of ILS, and looking back at ILS's record, he votes for MF early more or less just quickly parroting everyone else about her being defensive, only to flip to RNP in his next post, tying RNP with Eifie and putting MF out of danger. There does seem to be a bit of synergy there, while attempting some distancing - could be a coincidence, I guess, but it's definitely something.

On the other hand, RNP really is being super scummy right now. I'm not sure who'd be mafia with him, though - even with MF explaining the joke vote further, I really don't think D1 reads like they might feasibly be partnered, and the aforementioned ILS vote also seems unlikely if it was them. I'm inclined to agree with Eifie's assessment that Flora would probably be unlikely to miss the fact there were no night actions N0 if they were mafia (or had any kind of night action). It could in theory be Eifie (RNP has been following Eifie's lead with no explanation, and took special note of how he didn't actually suspect Eifie)... but not only would that kind of require the cop-guessing gambit to be true; it'd also mean Eifie's going hard after her own partner right now, which on its own seems pretty unlikely. I guess ILS could have banked on switching his vote again if things got dire? Or, I mean, maybe it's Flora and they just communicated really badly, but that just feels... a bit too much.

I think my overall conclusion has to be that the most plausible scum teams from my point of view are MF/ILS or RNP/ILS, and given it's important to lynch correctly today, I have to go with ILS, who would be scum in both cases.

 

[Eifie]

I actually think MF and RNP could make sense as a scum team based on D1 since the RVS thing no longer applies. MF put a vote on RNP in #57 but put zero effort into actually pushing that lynch. RNP barely showed any conviction about his MF vote either. I want to conclude from MF's specifically addressing the joke that she and RNP aren't paired though, since surely it would be easier for her if they were paired to just let me go on thinking their interaction could not be w/w rather than try to WIFOM it like that, right?

Wow, I never noticed that Flora said they forgot there were no N0 actions. That was after I posted my derpclear assessment though, so it's not such a strong point in their favour as it would be otherwise; at that point it'd be easily fakeable if they wanted to play up that angle. The things I was talking about them missing were the fact that we came up with that whole cop plan (which I even posted in huge letters to make sure everyone would see... sigh) and the fact that we meant to tie the vote yesterday and so it doesn't matter that they forgot to vote (but this one is not any kind of indicative). I would expect the mafia to be aware of the cop plan... but if the team is RNP/Flora, I can kind of see the wolves' communication being that bad, really.

Man, I don't know what to do. RNP and ILS, if either of you is town, we really need to find you and the best way for that to happen is for you to get in here and show us by putting as much effort as you can into solving! The game is riding on us figuring things out today.

Ugh, hindsight is 20/20 and all but man I wish we'd gone through with that RNP lynch on D1 instead of playing it safe. lolme.

 

[Butterfree]

Flora indicated in #128, pre-derpclear, that they'd assumed DarkAura had done an investigation on N0. (You may have missed it because they referred to it as N1, but in context, it definitely appears that's what they mean, or at least I definitely read it that way - they're drawing conclusions based on DarkAura having voted for RNP as well as several others on D1, which she wouldn't have done if she'd investigated RNP and knew his alignment.)

 

[Butterfree]

I actually think MF and RNP could make sense as a scum team based on D1 since the RVS thing no longer applies. MF put a vote on RNP in #57 but put zero effort into actually pushing that lynch. RNP barely showed any conviction about his MF vote either. I want to conclude from MF's specifically addressing the joke that she and RNP aren't paired though, since surely it would be easier for her if they were paired to just let me go on thinking their interaction could not be w/w rather than try to WIFOM it like that, right?

Hmm, maybe. What makes me specifically disinclined to think so is the way that they both voted for each other, and MF gave some very solid reasons to vote RNP there, at a time when she was under heavy fire - it was definitely a move that risked making the two of them the leading bandwagons. In this setup, a mafia member under heavy suspicion trying to deflect significant suspicion onto their partner rather than literally anyone else seems really risky - it just guarantees losing one half of the team while drawing a lot of attention to the other, and while it could work well as distancing, I don't think that'd be worth sacrificing half the team for when you could be trying to set up a viable town counterwagon instead.

 

[M&F]

I really ought to reread some stuff from D1 when my head is hopefully clearer after some proper sleep, hmm.

It was very tempting to apply Occam's razor when I was just thinking about things in bed at 2 am, but I think I was probably wrong to do it. What do you think of the post from ILS I quoted earlier (#80)? His vote changed things from 2-2-1 Eifie-MF-RNP to 2-2-1 Eifie-RNP-MF. He never moved it after that, so if ILS and RNP are wolves together it seems like he'd have to be hard bussing there and that is just a terrible move in a 7p cop game. Do you think that warrants an RNP/ILS exclusion? If RNP and ILS aren't teamed, I think Flora is almost certainly a wolf.

RedneckPhoenix and ILS being a scumteam was one of my favoured hypotheses until that came about, as a matter of fact. It's worth noting that not every move in a mafia game is a winner exactly, so there are no guarantees, but it does seem that turning on your scumbuddy that hard and fast is unlikely.

I'm... not sure about that? You did vote for RNP, yeah, but you only talked about him in that one post, which was mostly not even about him; your initial aggressive suspicion of Eifie was a fair bit more memorable, at least to me, and meanwhile DarkAura was prominently questioning RNP towards the end of the day - my overall feeling before rereading, at least, was that the main person grilling RNP was DarkAura rather than you.

That's probably fair enough. If there's not one particular player whose death would make RedneckPhoenix look very guilty, we can probably shelf the possibility of a framing kill anyway, so I suppose I'll have to double back and check whether DarkAura definitely pushed so hard as to really stand out.

Ugh, hindsight is 20/20 and all but man I wish we'd gone through with that RNP lynch on D1 instead of playing it safe. lolme.

this is why you listen to mama-

Time wasn't very much on our side back then, which was probably half the problem, but I suppose the real mistake was trading in the lynch for an extra abstain. We can technically guarantee another day's survival by abstaining, but we missed out on the one benefit of having our own drop dead -- that it limits the pool of who could possibly be scum -- and we were also very unfortunate (or very outplayed) such that the only possible useful night action for us at this point is a successful doccing.

I almost have to wonder if we're not better off abstaining, if only to cash in on that sole consequence-free dead townie. Worst case scenario we'll just lose someone whose death tells us nothing much, but most any such players are also likely to get docced.

 

[M&F]

Worst case scenario we'll just lose someone whose death tells us nothing much, but most any such players are also likely to get docced.

(although, afterthought, if one such player also happens to be the doc we are very screwed)

 

[Eifie]

half conscious phone post: abstaining today is the mechanically correct move for sure, we're probably not going to get a useful flip in the night but there is a small chance of a doc save which would be a little bit helpful. having to wait an extra five days to find out whatever flip we would get if we lynch today is very not appealing so idk if worth for the strictly optimal mechanical move

 

[Keldeo]

Current vote list:

RedneckPhoenix (2): Eifie (#121), I liek Squirtles (#136)
I liek Squirtles (2): RedneckPhoenix (#144), Butterfree (#146)
Not voting: Flora, M&F

Deadline is in around 13 hours. If the vote remains tied at that time, phase will be extended.

Please correct me if I've made an error or missed a vote somewhere!

 

[Eifie]

Well, to be quite frank, my interest in this game has pretty much died because none of the main suspects are even posting. Inactivity ruins games you guys :( I prefer lynching RNP over ILS because I kind of think RNP/Flora is a possible world and I still don't really think MF/ILS is. But meh. Someone just break the tie.

 

[Butterfree]

Well, to be quite frank, my interest in this game has pretty much died because none of the main suspects are even posting. Inactivity ruins games you guys :( I prefer lynching RNP over ILS because I kind of think RNP/Flora is a possible world and I still don't really think MF/ILS is. But meh. Someone just break the tie.

What about Flora/ILS? If Flora is scum, I'm not sure there's much to indicate who they'd be paired with.

What are your thoughts on Flora having clearly not realized there were no night actions N0 prior to your post about derpclearing them, as I explained in #148, and my reasoning about the feasibility of MF/ILS in #146? At least to me, the possibility of Flora faking thinking there were night actions on N0 is clearly manifestly less likely than the possibility of MF offhandedly saying we were largely done poking inactives while paired with still-inactive ILS. I don't like that you're here repeating your stance on these things while ignoring my points about them without comment. I feel like you're not quite engaging with me, which is frustrating; even if people aren't posting, please work with the people who are if you are town.

 

[M&F]

Oh well. I think you all know how much I hate to Abstain in general, but even if I have a decent amount of confidence in my scumreads, having the game end on D2 would be pretty disappointing.

Still no time like the present to scumhunt, though, so let that not be the end of the discussion.

 

[I liek Squirtles]

On mobile, so pardon any typos.

At first, I voted M&F simply to get contribute something to the thread (I had been trav. Then, while rereading it, RNP came off as much scummier than M&F had. Those suspicions of mine were confirmed today with the sudden flip to vote for me.

 

[Eifie]

What about Flora/ILS? If Flora is scum, I'm not sure there's much to indicate who they'd be paired with.

What are your thoughts on Flora having clearly not realized there were no night actions N0 prior to your post about derpclearing them, as I explained in #148, and my reasoning about the feasibility of MF/ILS in #146? At least to me, the possibility of Flora faking thinking there were night actions on N0 is clearly manifestly less likely than the possibility of MF offhandedly saying we were largely done poking inactives while paired with still-inactive ILS. I don't like that you're here repeating your stance on these things while ignoring my points about them without comment. I feel like you're not quite engaging with me, which is frustrating; even if people aren't posting, please work with the people who are if you are town.

Yeah. Flora could be teamed with basically anyone.

I can't figure out what Flora was trying to say in #128 and how there being no n0 actions relates. If they actually meant n0 there, then I am very confused because it would make perfect sense for DarkAura to be voting RNP on d1 if she had investigated RNP as guilty n0, and Flora didn't remember who else DarkAura had voted so there doesn't seem to be any reason for them not to think that makes sense. It seems like they meant that DarkAura wouldn't have checked RNP n1 because the best move is to check someone you're really unsure about.

I guess looking at it again, maybe your interpretation makes more sense because there is zero value in speculating on who DarkAura investigated n1. I don't think that rules out Flora/ILS and Flora/RNP because I can definitely imagine a lack of communication happening there.

I just... don't agree with your assessment of #29. I think wolves tend to be hyper-aware of their partners existing and what their partners have done to possibly make themselves look bad, so I cannot imagine MF forgetting about ILS if they were partners, regardless of whether the remark was off-hand or not. I also do not consider that post at all emotionally-charged. It just seems like a typical transitioning-out-of-RVS post to me.

I already outlined several of my issues with RNP's posts (none of which he has responded to) and think he's just been too scummy to ignore. I think your issue if that you can't find a partner for him? I don't think RNP/Flora communicating badly to result in the n0 thing is all that unlikely.

 

[Eifie]

On mobile, so pardon any typos.

At first, I voted M&F simply to get contribute something to the thread (I had been trav. Then, while rereading it, RNP came off as much scummier than M&F had. Those suspicions of mine were confirmed today with the sudden flip to vote for me.

What do you think about Flora right now?

 

[Flora]

Hm. HM. I think...I might also go for ILS? it’s a really hard pick b/w him and RNP but...I honestly can’t really see anyone teamed with RNP, at least not atm