I liek Squirtles
sobble squad
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normal mafia
- Thread starter I liek Squirtles
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I liek Squirtles
sobble squad
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Zero Moment
Vinyl Scratch
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sanderidge
out of touch thursday
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I liek Squirtles
sobble squad
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Keldeo
Resolute
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Okay, so to elaborate, I don't think claiming on d1 with this setup benefits town at all, and inviting claims is kind of an anti-town thing to do. A vanilla townie claim is basically just narrowing down the pool of people who could potentially be the doctor or cop for the mafia to kill. We are also not going to get much out of a cop claim today unless they got a scum result - if they inspected a townie, they can basically only clear themself and that person out of a presumably 6:3 town:mafia ratio today, which leaves us with a revealed power role and still-worse-than-even odds for a random lynch, so that's not very helpful either.
I don't really know, I guess it kind of just rubs me the wrong way to start your first post on d1 with roleclaiming when it's both clearly not beneficial for town and pretty much indistinguishable from a mafia fishing for vanilla claims - especially when townie is a 100% safe thing for a mafia to claim in this setup because there are confirmed to be multiple townies. I think the tone of RedneckPhoenix's post also seems a little different from his opening in ASB Halloween Mafia? To my knowledge there isn't a recent game here with him as scum so there's nothing to compare for the other side of things, though.
Man, I'm probably succumbing to tunnel vision here in extrapolating off just one post, but half the day is gone already and there's not really anything else to talk about (besides the choice of night kill target, I guess, but mafia could have just randomized or something to foil any analysis of that so I don't know if that's actually going to be productive.) I feel like since the numbers are so tight this game, any way to get our odds of lynching scum above random is a boon, even when it's just because on the sliding scale of "this comes from a scum mindset" to "this comes from a town mindset", that post feels a little more on the scummy side.
I don't really know, I guess it kind of just rubs me the wrong way to start your first post on d1 with roleclaiming when it's both clearly not beneficial for town and pretty much indistinguishable from a mafia fishing for vanilla claims - especially when townie is a 100% safe thing for a mafia to claim in this setup because there are confirmed to be multiple townies. I think the tone of RedneckPhoenix's post also seems a little different from his opening in ASB Halloween Mafia? To my knowledge there isn't a recent game here with him as scum so there's nothing to compare for the other side of things, though.
Man, I'm probably succumbing to tunnel vision here in extrapolating off just one post, but half the day is gone already and there's not really anything else to talk about (besides the choice of night kill target, I guess, but mafia could have just randomized or something to foil any analysis of that so I don't know if that's actually going to be productive.) I feel like since the numbers are so tight this game, any way to get our odds of lynching scum above random is a boon, even when it's just because on the sliding scale of "this comes from a scum mindset" to "this comes from a town mindset", that post feels a little more on the scummy side.
kyeugh
onion witch
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i'll be honest, i'm not sure i agree. this early in the game i think we ought to give him the benefit of the doubt here— i'm assuming, at least, that his thought process there was "i don't have an important role, so i'm not putting myself in danger" without much regard to the narrowing of the pool of potential useful role-holders. at any rate all he did was claim town— at this point i don't think there's nearly enough information to begin forming any kind of meaningful conclusions about people's alignments, as pleasant as it would be otherwise.
while it's true that mafia could easily make the same claim with minimal repercussion, i don't really believe it's right to assume that someone is any more likely to be mafia just because they claimed town. at least for the time being, i don't think we should lean one way or another with his alignment— of course, that also means that he isn't certainly cleared as town, either.
that said, i agree that claiming isn't really beneficial right now, and that we should all keep our mouths shut on the matter so as not to jeopardise important roles. you're correct in saying that our limited numbers mean that we need to win more quickly, but i don't think phoenix's claim really suggests anything and i'm not convinced it really does put our odds of randomly lynching scum above, well, random. could just be me, but i think that until we have something a little more substantial, lynching really is just a stab in the dark, which is way too high-stakes to be reasonable this early in a game with so few people.
while it's true that mafia could easily make the same claim with minimal repercussion, i don't really believe it's right to assume that someone is any more likely to be mafia just because they claimed town. at least for the time being, i don't think we should lean one way or another with his alignment— of course, that also means that he isn't certainly cleared as town, either.
that said, i agree that claiming isn't really beneficial right now, and that we should all keep our mouths shut on the matter so as not to jeopardise important roles. you're correct in saying that our limited numbers mean that we need to win more quickly, but i don't think phoenix's claim really suggests anything and i'm not convinced it really does put our odds of randomly lynching scum above, well, random. could just be me, but i think that until we have something a little more substantial, lynching really is just a stab in the dark, which is way too high-stakes to be reasonable this early in a game with so few people.
Keldeo
Resolute
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Yeah, that makes sense. Although I still feel like it's sort of an "unsafe" thought process for a game where we really have to play it safe (unsafe is probably not the right word there, but I mean not thinking about the consequences of that claim) I agree that that post could definitely come from either mafia or town, and we do have enough of a numbers advantage over mafia to give him the benefit of the doubt for today.
To be honest I was kind of hoping that after I posted, RedneckPhoenix would then reply to that and give me more information to analyze and see whether he's actually scum or town, but he just... didn't post a response, so that didn't really pan out. Actually, I guess the fact that you replied tells me that he's probably more likely to be scum if you're scum, because I think if he's town then an opportunistic mafia would just let me wrongfully push him and get town to self-destruct since we can't actually afford that many mislynches. But also (just going off of one post, again, bleh) I kind of think you're more likely to be town than scum based on the tone of that post and the fact that you did step up and keep the game active, so that probably won't end up being a valuable observation since town you could defend either town him or scum him.
I kind of disagree with this, though. I think that especially this early, mafia are much more likely to claim vanilla town than cop or doctor given this setup, since like you said it's the only claim with minimal repercussions - it's just such a low-risk claim for a mafia to make that I can't see anyone except a really bold mafia claiming otherwise. (And even though I haven't seen most of the people in this game play as scum, I'd guess that that label only really applies to a handful of people?) Like, this is anecdotal but on the last day of Two Mafia Mafia, one of the two living mafia claimed vanilla town and the other claimed a cop for a faction that had been eliminated, which is essentially vanilla at that point. So if we end up with more townie claims than we should, obviously there's going to be actual vanilla townies in that group, but I think there's definitely going to be at least one or two mafia in there as well.
Actually, RedneckPhoenix/anyone else, what do you think of the reasoning of my earlier post? I'd also like people's thoughts on how we should proceed on d2 since it doesn't seem like we have enough information to act on today, unless someone who hasn't posted yet does have something substantive.
To be honest I was kind of hoping that after I posted, RedneckPhoenix would then reply to that and give me more information to analyze and see whether he's actually scum or town, but he just... didn't post a response, so that didn't really pan out. Actually, I guess the fact that you replied tells me that he's probably more likely to be scum if you're scum, because I think if he's town then an opportunistic mafia would just let me wrongfully push him and get town to self-destruct since we can't actually afford that many mislynches. But also (just going off of one post, again, bleh) I kind of think you're more likely to be town than scum based on the tone of that post and the fact that you did step up and keep the game active, so that probably won't end up being a valuable observation since town you could defend either town him or scum him.
I kind of disagree with this, though. I think that especially this early, mafia are much more likely to claim vanilla town than cop or doctor given this setup, since like you said it's the only claim with minimal repercussions - it's just such a low-risk claim for a mafia to make that I can't see anyone except a really bold mafia claiming otherwise. (And even though I haven't seen most of the people in this game play as scum, I'd guess that that label only really applies to a handful of people?) Like, this is anecdotal but on the last day of Two Mafia Mafia, one of the two living mafia claimed vanilla town and the other claimed a cop for a faction that had been eliminated, which is essentially vanilla at that point. So if we end up with more townie claims than we should, obviously there's going to be actual vanilla townies in that group, but I think there's definitely going to be at least one or two mafia in there as well.
Actually, RedneckPhoenix/anyone else, what do you think of the reasoning of my earlier post? I'd also like people's thoughts on how we should proceed on d2 since it doesn't seem like we have enough information to act on today, unless someone who hasn't posted yet does have something substantive.
Keldeo
Resolute
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Or even if (general you) you don’t have an opinion on anything that’s been posted, the fact that you don’t have an opinion is still something that could potentially be useful to say before the phase ends anyway? Since it gives us an idea of what you were thinking right now, which I think is important to consider when evaluating your future posts.
sanderidge
out of touch thursday
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yay, incentive to post!
mostly i was feeling sketchy about the claim thing as i read it, but everything i'd wanted to say had already really been said by the time i saw it. i still don't really feel like actually thinking about the Numbers mafia-wise, but this early with no actual info? seems pretty bad for town.
also, lynch or no lynch today? i feel like it would be a bad idea to do one, especially since we'd probably be going blind. thoughts?
Zero Moment
Vinyl Scratch
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RNP
Despite everything, it's still you.
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i didn't mean "hey, everyone roleclaim" i more meant "hey! I'm gonna roleclaim my super important role, but not really because i'm vanilla" for, like, comedic purposes? I guess? fuck i don't know. anyways, it seems paranoid to assume something based on text saying the exact opposite, but having seen mafia games before and probably being one of the most paranoid people on the planet, it seems sensible to me.
Keldeo
Resolute
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I mean, all you said was "roleclaim time!" and then your claim, which I think could reasonably be taken either as "everyone should roleclaim, follow me!" or as "I'm roleclaiming in a funny way!", and in the post right after, Gzhoom also "claimed" (maybe facetiously? idk.) So I don't think it's really misconstruing your words to believe that you had meant the former? (I also don't have the best track record for not misinterpreting something random d1, haha.) But thank you for clarifying that you meant the latter - I still don't think claiming d1 is a good idea, even claiming vanilla townie, and I'm probably going to be a little more critical in future in light of that, but I guess it happened and we can't change that.
I agree abstaining today is probably best unless effervesce or Butterfree has something to say? I'm pretty sure abstain -> random lynch is the optimal way to maximize our chances of hitting scum, assuming no cop results or scumslips (well, I need to work out the odds of abstain -> abstain -> random lynch in comparison, but they're both probably better than just random lynching today.)
I agree abstaining today is probably best unless effervesce or Butterfree has something to say? I'm pretty sure abstain -> random lynch is the optimal way to maximize our chances of hitting scum, assuming no cop results or scumslips (well, I need to work out the odds of abstain -> abstain -> random lynch in comparison, but they're both probably better than just random lynching today.)
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Zero Moment
Vinyl Scratch
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