Pokémon Mafia: Arceus - Game Thread

[qenya]

Night 0

The rift is quiet, and Hisui sleeps... Pokémon roam the wilds, the clans rest, and the folk of Jubilife Village lie peacefully in their homes, not anticipating the nightmare soon to unfold.

Role PMs are being sent out. Please select your characters. Day 1 will begin on 2022-09-02 (Friday) at 23:00 UTC, with a 24-hour delay if not everyone has chosen yet.

Spoiler: Pings / Playerlist

@M&F
@JackPK
@lolfoxes (@Wisper & @Zori)
@Zero Moment
@RedneckPhoenix
@Herbe
@haneko
@Butterfree

 

[qenya]

Day 1

A bright summer's morning dawns, a faint pleasant breeze blowing gently down Floaro Main Street. Against all odds, the world is much the same as the people of Hisui left it the day before. As the village awakens and townsfolk begin to go about their daily business, nobody appears unaccounted for.

A neatly handwritten notice has been pinned to the wall outside the Galaxy Team's living quarters. Its subject matter is alarming, but it seems so divorced from reality that nobody really knows what to make of it. Except whoever put it there, presumably.

Spoiler: Anonymous Role PM Fragment

While you are alive, at the beginning of each day phase, a random living player will be selected, and all other living players will be privately informed that they are conspiring against that player. If you are selected, instead only you will be informed that there is no conspiracy that day.

During the day, all living players may vote on whether or not they believe there is a conspiracy, in addition to the ordinary elimination poll. If there is a conspiracy and the target of the conspiracy correctly identifies this, they will be granted 1 extra elimination vote during the next day phase. If there is not a conspiracy and a majority of living players correctly identify this, then each player who guessed correctly will be granted 1 extra elimination vote during the next day phase. You do not have a conspiracy vote (although you may pretend that you do and it will be included in vote totals).

If nobody gains an extra vote as a result of this minigame, you may target a player during the following night. That player dies.

This role PM, excluding your alignment and identity, will be published to the thread at the beginning of each day you are alive to clarify these mechanics.

Nobody has died. (I'd be quite impressed if someone had managed it, but...)

Day 1 has begun. 48 hours for discussion. Voting will end on 2022-09-04 (Sunday) at 23:00 UTC.

Spoiler: Pings / Playerlist

@M&F
@JackPK
@lolfoxes (@Wisper & @Zori)
@Zero Moment
@RedneckPhoenix
@Herbe
@haneko
@Butterfree
and, fine... @Eifie

Spoiler: Unselected Characters

Spoiler: M&F - Dorian & Buizel

Dorian & Buizel
"If there really are Buizel bigger than mine, I’d love to see them alongside the one I have, for comparison’s sake. One that’s at least around 2'8" would be great!"

Your beloved Buizel is the talk of the town; its sleek fur, its shining eyes, its graceful tails. But you can't help but wonder. Surely there must be bigger Buizel out there? Wouldn't it be exciting to see such a huge Buizel? Maybe one of these mysterious strangers who keep falling out of the sky can help you find one.

You are aligned with the Villagers. You win when all living players are Villagers, or when nothing can prevent this from happening. (You don't win if all players die simultaneously.)

Spoiler: JackPK - Professor Laventon & Rowlet/Cyndaquil/Oshawott

Professor Laventon & Rowlet/Cyndaquil/Oshawott (your choice)
"Come now — I am a scientist! My job is to observe and explain any and all phenomena. I concern myself only with facts!"

You've travelled to this new unexplored region to document its native Pokémon species, but now your compatriots are trying to pop each other off! That's just not cricket. Well, one mustn't grumble. It would be a jolly poor show if you couldn't use your top-notch research skills to root out some useful information, eh?

You are aligned with the Villagers. You win when all living players are Villagers, or when nothing can prevent this from happening. (You don't win if all players die simultaneously.)

Spoiler: lolfoxes - Cyllene & Abra

Cyllene & Abra
"Try to retain your composure, if you can. Allowing your emotions to run amok will only make you vulnerable."

You are known for your fair and even-minded captaincy of the Galaxy Team's Survey Corps, always offering everyone a fair hearing.

Your alignment is the Spectators' Choice. They may pick any alignment that I am capable of moderating, including one that does not otherwise exist in this game. You may communicate with them freely in a group PM until they make a decision (which they may do at any time, using any method they wish, including the acceptance of bribes). The spectators are, of course, permitted to privately communicate with each other outside the group PM.

If you don't have an alignment when the game ends, you lose.

Spoiler: Zero Moment - Emmet & Eelektross

Emmet & Eelektross
"What I do. What I say. Always the same. Follow the rules. Safe driving! Follow the schedules. Everyone smile! Check safety. Everything's ready! Aim for victory! All aboard!"

Your brother was taken from you. Nobody else seems to remember him, but you do. It has taken you a long time to complete your research, neglecting your duties as a Subway Boss, but now you are ready to travel to the Sinnoh of old to find him. You will go to verrrrrry great lengths to get him back.

You are aligned with the Subway Bosses, and may communicate with your brother Ingo in private if he is present in the game. You win when the Subway Bosses compose 50% or more of living players, in which case you leave the game and the game continues (unless all other living players are Villagers, in which case they lose).

Once per night, the two of you may collectively choose one of your partner Pokémon to Dynamax for the duration of the night. (This does not count as a night action.)

Spoiler: RedneckPhoenix - Calaba & Bibarel

Calaba & Bibarel
"I don’t need any help from your sort. Or the Diamond Clan, for that matter. That young lady, Arezu, offered to help, but associating with the Diamond Clan... It just won’t do."

You've been Ursaluna's warden for many decades now. When you've lived as long as that, you learn something about who can safely trust whom.

You are aligned with the Pearl Clan, and may communicate with them in private. You win when all living players are Pearl Clan, or when nothing can prevent this from happening. (You don't win if all players die simultaneously.)

Each night, one Pearl Clan member may target a player. That player dies. (You can't use this action at the same time as the one granted by your role.)

Spoiler: Herbe - Volo & Giratina

Volo & Giratina
"My desire to meet Arceus cannot be contained any longer! I need to know what it is! I MUST know what it is! If I can meet Arceus myself, then I may also be able to subjugate its power... And using that, I will attempt to create a new, better world!"

You are the brilliant mastermind behind the space-time rift. By allowing Giratina entrance to this world, you can usurp almighty Arceus' power and become as a God yourself. But for that to happen... first, everyone in Hisui must die.

You are self-aligned. You win when you are the only living player, or when nothing can prevent this from happening.

Spoiler: haneko - Melli & Skuntank

Melli & Skuntank
"Oh, Adaman. Oh, oh, oh, you silly, foolish boy. Don’t you understand anything? Everyone has work they are suited to and work they are not."

You are Lord Electrode's warden and you are just so incredibly fucking irritating, oh my god. Literally just your mere presence fucks stuff up for everyone around you. I hope you're happy, you little prick.

You are aligned with the Diamond Clan, and may communicate with them in private. You win when all living players are Diamond Clan, or when nothing can prevent this from happening. (You don't win if all players die simultaneously.)

Each night, one Diamond Clan member may target a player. That player dies.

Spoiler: Butterfree - Ingo & Sneasler

Ingo & Sneasler
"I’m starting to recall a man who looked...like me. We’d battle and discuss Pokémon, I think..."

You woke up here in Hisui some years ago with no knowledge of your past, save flashes of memories that come and go and a vague sense that you are not where you're supposed to be. But as the rift grows, you're beginning to piece things together again. Recently you saw someone, someone new and yet also someone you recognised, a silhouette that looked familiar, just a flash in the snow, and then he was gone... If it means answers about your past, you'll stop at nothing to find him again, and your dear friend Lady Sneasler will help you every step of the way.

You are aligned with the Subway Bosses, and may communicate with your brother Emmet in private if he is present in the game. You win when the Subway Bosses compose 50% or more of living players, in which case you leave the game and the game continues (unless all other living players are Villagers, in which case they lose).

Once per night, the two of you may collectively choose one of your partner Pokémon to Dynamax for the duration of the night. (This does not count as a night action.)

 

[qenya]

goddammit half my fuckin images have broken

oh well you can still right-click and open in new tab to see them if you really care that much I guess.

 

[JackPK]

good news everyone (except qenya's images)

 

[JackPK]

aww, ingo and emmet both not getting chosen. poor guys

 

[M&F]

Nobody has died. (I'd be quite impressed if someone had managed it, but...)

the best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago; the next best time is right now

Explode RedneckPhoenix

 

[lolfoxes]

Hi everyone! Excited to be here.

~W

 

[lolfoxes]

nya

-nya

 

[lolfoxes]

me being too lazy to change my username before the game and not not wanting to change it during the game or sign as the new one because that'd confuse people

~W

 

[Herbe]

Meow... A lot to absorb here already!!!

 

[M&F]

anyways, relentless memery aside -- we get something to chew on from the start, so, why not start chewing, eh

it looks like we've got one hell of a panoply of possible alignments running around here -- you've got the multiball mafia, you've got a full third-party faction, you've got at least one lone self-aligned role that didn't get picked, and you've even got freakin Spectators' Choice up there in case this salad needed wasabi

still, one thing that's possible to discern up there is that RedneckPhoenix and haneko were presented with at least one mafia-aligned option that they didn't pick -- which is no guarantee that they didn't have any other scum options to pick from, but it does put them both at higher odds than average of being villa, I'd expect

 

[lolfoxes]

there are 24 total rolecards for 8 players
??? town
??? diamond
??? pearl
2 subway bosses
??? self aligned cards
can anyone whos played the game give a rough estimate of how many diamond or pearl clan members exist in the game for a possible upper cap
otherwise i might guess at something like 10/4/4/2/4?

-nya

 

[M&F]

oh, and aside all the PMs that aren't in the game, there's that piece of the one that is in, huh? I imagine we're not exactly at liberty to ask for clarifications on this role that isn't ours, but it beats me whether "1 extra elimination vote" here means doublevoting or the ability to lynch an additional player.

anyway, the fact that it all leads up to a nightkill for the role's owner and it doesn't seem to include any benefits for town makes it seem to me very much like a self-aligned role, although I think I'm going to need time to fully wrap my head around what this conspiracy minigame is and what our options in the face of it are

 

[qenya]

it beats me whether "1 extra elimination vote" here means doublevoting or the ability to lynch an additional player.

"1 extra elimination vote" means that that player's elimination vote (as opposed to their conspiracy vote) counts as 1 more when tallying them up. So doublevoting, yes

 

[JackPK]

there are 24 total rolecards for 8 players
??? town
??? diamond
??? pearl
2 subway bosses
??? self aligned cards
can anyone whos played the game give a rough estimate of how many diamond or pearl clan members exist in the game for a possible upper cap
otherwise i might guess at something like 10/4/4/2/4?

-nya

I'm betting the upper cap is capped based on game balance rather than number of characters in PLA, since PLA has a character from both clans for each of the 5 areas + a leader for each clan = 6 members in each clan, which sounds excessive for a 24-rolecard 8-player game

 

[lolfoxes]

also worth noting that M&F and Jack are the only ones who have a revealed thrown village card
if its about half/half for town non-town cards total

~1/8 TTT
~3/8 TTN
~3/8 TNN
~1/8 NNN

if they threw a T card then that rules out NNN
chance theyre holding a T card right now is approx i think (1/7 + 3/14)? which is in the ballpark of 35%
as opposed to the ballpart of 65% of all the ppl who threw nontown cards?
idk
maths

-nya

 

[M&F]

there are 24 total rolecards for 8 players
??? town
??? diamond
??? pearl
2 subway bosses
??? self aligned cards
can anyone whos played the game give a rough estimate of how many diamond or pearl clan members exist in the game for a possible upper cap
otherwise i might guess at something like 10/4/4/2/4?

-nya

better someone who played the game drop the stats, but bulbapedia does tell me each clan has their 1 leader, 5 wardens, and also 1 former member (although those would be at least as likely to be self-aligned roles or even villa I'd imagine), to a potential total of 7

(although in any case it's not necessarily going to be as 1:1 as all that -- Ingo is with Pearl Clan in the games but here he's with Emmet instead)

there may or may not be an upper limit on how many possible villagers there are to work with in the game either, although, well, see the dude I didn't pick -- yall tell me how relevant he is exactly, but he doesn't even have a page on bulbapedia.

 

[Herbe]

didn't play PLA, were there other subway bosses than Ingo and Emmet? Do y'all think we have to worry about that faction anymore after the two didn't get picked?

 

[lolfoxes]

didn't play PLA, were there other subway bosses than Ingo and Emmet? Do y'all think we have to worry about that faction anymore after the two didn't get picked?

ive played BW and ingo/emmet are the only two subway bosses there
idk if they added another one but if i had to guess id guess probably not

-nya

 

[M&F]

also worth noting that M&F and Jack are the only ones who have a revealed thrown village card
if its about half/half for town non-town cards total

~1/8 TTT
~3/8 TTN
~3/8 TNN
~1/8 NNN

if they threw a T card then that rules out NNN
chance theyre holding a T card right now is approx i think (1/7 + 3/14)? which is in the ballpark of 35%
as opposed to the ballpart of 65% of all the ppl who threw nontown cards?
idk
maths

-nya

I hope this isn't going to turn out to be a monty hall problem--

anyway, I suppose there's no two ways around it; by the same logic I've used earlier, me and Jack are both looking more suspicious than average right now. I did pick villa still, but, well, that's exactly what I'd be claiming if I hadn't, obviously

nonetheless though, I may as well fully claim what my options were; besides that villa PM that I tossed, there was a mob one -- Diamond Clan, to be specific. so, if you take my word for it anyway, my options were T/T/N