Pokémon Mafia: Arceus - Game Thread

[lolfoxes]

we tossed our spec choice one and a self aligned one

but the wording of the card made the self aligned one seem benign

~W

 

[lolfoxes]

oh also the emmet role kinda makes this irrelevant

but our flavor is someone who is not in legends arceus

so there's that as well

~W

 

[lolfoxes]

I hope this isn't going to turn out to be a monty hall problem--

yes
monty hall is breaking my brain
im trying to tell if thats correct or not

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-nya

 

[lolfoxes]

nyanty hall problem

~w

 

[JackPK]

anyway, I suppose there's no two ways around it; by the same logic I've used earlier, me and Jack are both looking more suspicious than average right now. I did pick villa still, but, well, that's exactly what I'd be claiming if I hadn't, obviously

nonetheless though, I may as well fully claim what my options were; besides that villa PM that I tossed, there was a mob one -- Diamond Clan, to be specific. so, if you take my word for it anyway, my options were T/T/N

likewise, my claim also holds no water because it's exactly what I'd falseclaim if I were falseclaiming, but I did also pick villa and my options were TTN

the other one I tossed was Palina from Pearl Clan, whose flavor description talked a lot about a bond with Growlithe that I don't have the brains to try to correlate with a role to imagine what role that might've been, if it was anything more specific than just generic scum

 

[lolfoxes]

oh also the emmet role kinda makes this irrelevant

but our flavor is someone who is not in legends arceus

ive seen pla!emmet fanart so much on twitter that i wasnt sure

-nya

 

[M&F]

likewise, my claim also holds no water because it's exactly what I'd falseclaim if I were falseclaiming, but I did also pick villa and my options were TTN

the other one I tossed was Palina from Pearl Clan, whose flavor description talked a lot about a bond with Growlithe that I don't have the brains to try to correlate with a role to imagine what role that might've been, if it was anything more specific than just generic scum

oh yeah, it may also be worth mentioning -- my mob option actually looked a lot like it wasn't vannila, although both of the PMs that did turn up are vannila

 

[lolfoxes]

the discarded ones don't seem to be vanilla? at least not necessarily

~w

 

[M&F]

oh, yeah, the discarded PMs all don't have revealed role powers anyway, I got that mixed up

 

[lolfoxes]

hm

i wonder if non town pickers would have been told what an available town role did for fakeclaim reasons

~w

 

[M&F]

kay, so, I've narrowed down the possible realities with the conspiracy thing:

There is a conspiracy (the randomly selected player is anyone other than the conspiracy runner)
-Everyone gets a PM, except for the target
-Target can get a doublevote if they vote that yes, there is a conspiracy
-If they vote no, or don't vote: the conspiracy runner gets a nightkill
-What everyone else votes straight-up does not matter

There is no conspiracy (the randomly selected player is the conspiracy runner)
-Only the conspiracy runner gets a PM
-Everyone who votes no gets a doublevote, if most people vote no
-If most people vote yes: the conspiracy runner gets a nightkill

the likeliest scenario we'll be dealing with in any given Day is that there is indeed a conspiracy; in those scenarios, the player who is the conspiracy target can simply note that they didn't get a PM and vote Yes, although the risk would remain that there is no conspiracy and they just screwed themselves out of a doublevote that a bunch of other people may be getting for themselves. in any case, though, in those scenarios, the players other than the conspiracy target always have the option of blowing the whistle and essentially conceding the conspiracy target a doublevote; this is risky, as the conspiracy target is randomly selected and we can't all too well vet for them to be town, but an anti-town doublevote is still less of a hazard than an anti-town nightkill, and that's likely what we'd be eating obligatorily if the conspiracy target does not vote yes.

all put together, blowing the whistle seems like the better option (provided there is a conspiracy, anyway), although we do have about 48 hours to discuss whether we want to do that or not

 

[lolfoxes]

hm

i wonder if non town pickers would have been told what an available town role did for fakeclaim reasons

~w

im guessing given the track record of fakeclaims on this site that no

-nya

 

[Zero Moment]

Butterfree, my Schrödinger's Brother! I am glad we both realized what a terrible idea it would be trying to get us both in top 4, or top 2, and instead opened the box to some other choice.

 

[RNP]

herbe
i'm at work you'll have to wait for the explanation/punchline/whatever till later

 

[RNP]

for reasons that some may or may not know herbe has some kind of incentive to choose ingroup to maximize the chance of getting to conspire with a certain person through the course of the game, and as such an incentive to choose another role over the cool 3p; this did not work out, seemingly.

to metagame even harder, herbe seemed jealous of me when i kept rolling 3p in town of salem so something much more enticing must have come up

 

[RNP]

also i'm just gonna say it cuz i don't want this kill falling into a seemingly-evil role's hands: zm there's a conspiracy against you

 

[M&F]

ah, so we've taken our first foray into metaing vis-a-vis what people would pick if given a choice, huh? I thought we'd at least buy each other dinner before that-

 

[RNP]

also i would like to mention that i will not be around for eod since it's literally exactly at the time i start work

 

[Butterfree]

kay, so, I've narrowed down the possible realities with the conspiracy thing:

There is a conspiracy (the randomly selected player is anyone other than the conspiracy runner)
-Everyone gets a PM, except for the target
-Target can get a doublevote if they vote that yes, there is a conspiracy
-If they vote no, or don't vote: the conspiracy runner gets a nightkill
-What everyone else votes straight-up does not matter

There is no conspiracy (the randomly selected player is the conspiracy runner)
-Only the conspiracy runner gets a PM
-Everyone who votes no gets a doublevote, if most people vote no
-If most people vote yes: the conspiracy runner gets a nightkill

the likeliest scenario we'll be dealing with in any given Day is that there is indeed a conspiracy; in those scenarios, the player who is the conspiracy target can simply note that they didn't get a PM and vote Yes, although the risk would remain that there is no conspiracy and they just screwed themselves out of a doublevote that a bunch of other people may be getting for themselves. in any case, though, in those scenarios, the players other than the conspiracy target always have the option of blowing the whistle and essentially conceding the conspiracy target a doublevote; this is risky, as the conspiracy target is randomly selected and we can't all too well vet for them to be town, but an anti-town doublevote is still less of a hazard than an anti-town nightkill, and that's likely what we'd be eating obligatorily if the conspiracy target does not vote yes.

all put together, blowing the whistle seems like the better option (provided there is a conspiracy, anyway), although we do have about 48 hours to discuss whether we want to do that or not

Thanks for laying this all out, when I read the daystart post last night I was far too tired and headachey to process what on earth

Either way, yeah, I don't see much reason not to reveal the conspiracy, unless we're really determined that the player in question doublevoting would be particularly alarming? And like, if the conspiracy target is a mafia member with a partner, wouldn't the partner just tell them about the conspiracy either way...?

A thought I had re role PMs was that maybe powers were decided afterwards to balance whatever team composition we wound up with, since the whole choosing your alignment thing would otherwise make for a pretty swingy game. Dunno.

 

[Herbe]

for reasons that some may or may not know herbe has some kind of incentive to choose ingroup to maximize the chance of getting to conspire with a certain person through the course of the game, and as such an incentive to choose another role over the cool 3p; this did not work out, seemingly.

to metagame even harder, herbe seemed jealous of me when i kept rolling 3p in town of salem so something much more enticing must have come up

first off, honey, i think the incentive you're bringing up now is a double edged sword - "this did not work out, seemingly." (idk how obvious it is but the plot is that we would have picked maf in order to be on the same team because we are dating.) but there are two competing mafia factions, both of which want the other dead and all the villagers dead. so the chances that we would have actually ended up on the same team is a coinflip. (i think, right? HDRD and HPRP are options along with HDRP and HPRD... seems 50/50 unless theres some monty hall bullshit). to metagame even even harder you were sooooo psyched when you thought i was on your mafia team in TOS (it wasn't, someone else picked my name cause blah blah blah shenanigans but rnp told me after the game he thought it was me and was like yoooooo and addressed this rando as such) so it's not like this incentive wouldn't be there for you either although your odd little mindgames could be at play here (such as WIFOMing me trying to pick mafia and knowing he could probably get a guaranteed mafkill in this scenario.) (maybe involving figuring the thing out about the low chance with the seperate ingroups and bailing in order to target me about it)

tl;dr i'm not sure that this scenario/accusation/even incentive is AI for RNP but it sure is shenanigans

second, dearest, that 3p role was not cool at all lmao. be the last one surviving? thats sooo rare for me and honestly would stress me out. i'm not good at not getting killed lmao. even on my best days i don't seem towny while Literally Town. i'm an odd little fellow and that doesn't mean that i will probably survive that long. my public unclaimed role would just be boring for me tbh.

third, sweetheart, i wasn't jealous i was mad you kept using scrolls to Serial Killer me!!!!!!! didn't mean /i/ wanted to be serial killer meant that you're bullying me !!!!!!!!!!

.....anyway you totally would have been right and i do prefer playing scum/ingroup (and everyone knows that in my meta) but i literally was not given the option. :/