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Pokémon Mafia: Arceus - Game Thread

vague head thoughts

gooder
herbe
zm jack rnp
butterfree mf
haneko
badder

-nya
 
i think herbes flipping onto haneko to save themselves, then flipping off to rnp and then to unvote when extension was made shows a legitimate desire to actually vote out a mafia rather than just to survive another day
i think its probably the most solidly villagery thing that ive seen in the thread so far

-nya
 
I am not very energetic BC I am pretty sick rn

I need to do some proper reading of everyone analyses and stuff so I can think of who to vote for
 
ok, so first of all, I want to explain that I'm not doing meta reads of which alignment people are based on past games because I haven't participated in enough games to really do that IMO. I have ended up as mafia in every past game I can remember so far, though, so I can see why people are quick to learn towards mafia this time around - but I'd also like to point out that as lolfoxes said nobody's seen me play town. It seems kind of unfair to do meta reads on me when the meta doesn't show much other than "if haneko is mafia, which she usually is, she plays like this"

I don't think my playstyle would be much different between maf/villager for what it's worth.

Onto who to vote for. I'm going to choose Butterfree since she's also been inactive; she discarded a 3p role so her options must have been:

villager villager 3p
villager mafia 3p (x2 of these for the two different factions)
mafia mafia 3p
mafia 3p 3p (x2 for the two different factions)

basically there's a good chance she is either 3p or mafia. @Butterfree what say you?

(And yeah, this is mostly self preservation so that the EOD vote is at least a rand and not just me lol.)

Finally this is unrelated to everything but my other discarded role was part of the Undead Cult, a 3p faction. I'd like to know how many other people got a cult option and discarded it - the info I got suggests the Undead Cult is invisible to the game thread, but gets nightkills.
 
considering ginter would also be a third party role, yeah
 
villager villager 3p
villager mafia 3p (x2 of these for the two different factions)
mafia mafia 3p
mafia 3p 3p (x2 for the two different factions)

basically there's a good chance she is either 3p or mafia. @Butterfree what say you?
this assumes that the chances of getting villa/3p/mafia are 33/33/33 which is probably not true
this logic would also apply to every player equally well, regardless of what card they discarded

-nya
 
I'm curious as to where you're seeing a change, really -- I voted based exactly on the argumentation you're quoting + urgency and no particular desire to let it rand
there's a dissonance between thinking herbe wouldn't have willingly picked mafia and wanting to vote them

~w
so like, there's a "but" and a different sentence right after that part of the paragraph. hope that helps! <3

-----

anyway, I just gave the this day a second rinse to compose a full list of reads

Towniest
-M&F: not only is she the towniest and most pure being in this thread, she's also right about everything, including USamerican crosswords

Towny
-JackPK: the rare discarded villa PM thing is a point-against -- I have to acknowledge that regardless that it also applies to me -- but he's been present and willing to take an original side on each present discussion; better vibes than average as far as I'm concerned
-lolfoxes: generally one of the solvier players around here, prodding and pushing discussion forward. although, and I seem to have completely missed a spot check on this the first time around, they're claiming their PMs were town/third-party/third-party, which strikes me as unlikely in the same vein as Herbe's claimed set. as :thonk: as that leaves me, though, good presence currently weighs favourably against speculating on the PM choice situation as that's not exactly a landscape that any of us have a very broad view of at the moment (least of all since apparently there's yet another distinct third-party alignment that didn't crop up in the discarded PMs hellooooo??)
-haneko: if it were by thread behavior alone I'd be sitting firmly on null here; cooperative when prodded, but offering mostly self-defense for reasoning. however, though, the other PM they're claiming to have discarded seems plausible, which would mean they discarded both that and the publicized mafia PM; I'm inclined to consider town/mafia/third-party a likelier PM spread than most, and absent a whole lot of other factors, I'm willing to consider this enough to push haneko into a light townread. (plus I suppose I too would pick town if I were constantly randing mafia on this forum--)

Null
-Zero Moment: relatively silent as always; there's not much to say about it either way
-Butterfree: presently our next most inactive player, having come around exactly once to comment on the conspiracy situation. still, my feelings on preferring not to just inactive lynch on D1 if it can be helped remain -- albeit not as strongly since, well, she has officially gotten a little more time to show up and thus far has not

I'm of Two Minds Here
-RedneckPhoenix: clearly very interested in lynching Herbe, which makes it unlikely he's on the same team as them. there are more plausible ways for it to land as such than a simple villa vs wolf situation, though; remember, in a multiball mafia scenario, one of the most reliable ways to play is by scumhunting the other team specifically. (third-party shenanigans also exist as an outstanding possibility, not to mention as the kind of faction I could easily imagine RNP picking, but short of a straight-up Lyncher there are not many kinds of third-party role which would motivate opening with an all-out attack on a member of a different, unknown faction)

Herbe
-Herbe: well, it's a whole ongoing situation and I'll need more than the one paragraph to analyze it properly; coming up next!

Scummiest
-qenya: seriously trying to convince us that, given 3 options, she decided to become the GM
-Eifie: rancid vibes. we should lynch immediately tbh. (love you!)
 
I don't think my playstyle would be much different between maf/villager for what it's worth.
you dont think = you don't know?

-nya

from my perspective, there isn't much of a difference between how I play maf and how I play town, imo. - is what I mean.

villager villager 3p
villager mafia 3p (x2 of these for the two different factions)
mafia mafia 3p
mafia 3p 3p (x2 for the two different factions)

basically there's a good chance she is either 3p or mafia. @Butterfree what say you?
this assumes that the chances of getting villa/3p/mafia are 33/33/33 which is probably not true
this logic would also apply to every player equally well, regardless of what card they discarded

-nya

I think those chances work as a rough estimate of what the probability of someone being mafia/3p is, and yeah, I know that the logic applies to every player.

... Which means there are more non-townies than townies in this game, unless I've got it wrong. (That would also track with the undead cult thing. Would still like to know if any of you got a cult option! It sounds like a real threat to town and I think we should find ways to safeguard against it!)
 
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