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Pokémon Mafia: Arceus - Game Thread

so, on Herbe

first of all, my previous reasoning on the likelihood that Herbe's PMs really were town/town/third-party seems to be shot right now; I think the presence of yet another potential scum faction in this setup (sounds like a cult?) officially pushes the needle from "it would be challenging for qenya to ensure that this setup has mafiosxs at all" to "qenya probably was not planning for the scum in this setup to necessarily be mafia".

Herbe has also subsequently claimed their flavor, both active and discarded, at RNP's prodding! so I went and looked the stuff up on bulbapedia. this is what I've got:
-Beauregard is listed as a minor member of the Security Corps, ostensibly the average street cops of Jubilife Village. this strikes me as an obviously town flavor, especially if I consider that my own villa role is also a literal villager from Jubilife. (also, though, there are so many names listed as members of the Security Corps specifically and Galaxy Team in general??? jesus fuck, turns out there's not actually much of an upper limit on how many possible named villa roles there are around here)
-Ginter is a merchant guy who sells stuff to the player. he's also Volo's boss -- and you might recall, Volo is the public third-party PM who Herbe has discarded. however, unless I'm missing something, I do not see where RNP is coming from with the assertion that he'd also necessarily be a self-aligned role; it seems to me like this Ginter really is just some merchant dude, while Volo's reasons for being self-aligned have everything to do with his larger story role and not so much to do with his guild affiliation.
these flavors do seem consistent with a town/town/third-party PM spread, and I think that speaks at least slightly favorably of Herbe. however, I wouldn't be rushing to consider it bulletproof; not when Ginter comes up after a small amount of wikiwalking off Volo, and not when a scum Herbe would likely have prodded qenya for some plausible fakeclaims to make up for not having actually played PLA.

(incidentally, Ginter does have a Bulbapedia page and official art, which is more than can be said for some of the other named roles around here -- so that does make it likelier that he's present as a real role and not a fakeclaim. which brings me to this important point, though: if any of you other than Herbe happen to have a Ginter PM, I invite you to counterclaim.)

anyway, as behavior goes, I'm not inclined to agree that Herbe's has been preponderantly towny so far; sure, parking on an inactive haneko would be a way for them to preserve themselves on the short term -- but one, it wouldn't be a great way as it's somewhat of a transparent self-pres move which would easily be countered by a sufficient amount of townies growing suspicious, and two, well, regardless if it'd have been an optimal game move, it goes without saying that Herbe runs on chaos and audacity at least as much as effective gameplay and probably more. unvoting afterwards, similarly, is the least they could not to be entirely obvious about parking on someone else strictly for self-pres. I don't think any part of this behavior is really alignment-indicative.

at most, what I would consider potentially alignment-indicative is that Herbe hadn't produced much in terms of solvy contribution before RNP came in like a wrecking ball, and they've mostly been playing defense since then. I think that's scummier than townier, although not by a huuuuge amount exactly.

still, I think what this all comes down to is that I'd give it rather low odds that RNP and Herbe are on the same team, which in turn means good odds that lynching one of them will yield productive results. so the question is -- which one?
-lynching RNP and getting a town flip would... not confirm much per se, but would mean that his takes on Herbe have been, if tunnelly, genuinely scumhunt-oriented
-lynching RNP and getting a scum flip would... place Herbe firmly at either town, or a different scumfaction
-lynching Herbe and getting a town flip would... look pretty bad for RNP
-lynching Herbe and getting a scum flip would... place RNP firmly at either town, or a different scumfaction

... so I guess the best conclusion I can draw from this is that analyzing specific player interactions in a scenario with this many possible factions sucks ass. lynching Herbe would be marginally more informative, but if your best-case scenario for a given choice of lynch is that it'll be a slightly revelatory mislynch, that's not great.

I will therefore unvote and continue observing how this develops, on the off-chance that this tree gets shaken enough for something meatier to fall off; I don't think that's likely, unfortunately, but until we're staring down EoD again I can't say I'm exceptionally pressed on letting the blade fall on one particular side of this one
 
(god dammit I should not have gotten that rambly. my apologies to yall who are stuck reading my entire posts. although I'm also not that sorry)
 
i do plan on doing Thoughts with my Brain in like idk an hour or two im just so wobbly right now
 
but like enough time to discuss it before eod but im not makin any promises of immediacy yk

Anyway im gonna go have a lunch
 
you know, though, on second thought, a lot of the information that I actually somewhat get to use in this scenario came from Herbe being on the backfoot. if I want to see the full picture here, I think the shoe needs to be on the other foot, at least for a spell

so, RedneckPhoenix -- what all have you got for us?
 
(he's gonna be asleep for a while i think, had a full night's work and only went to sleep like two hours ago... let's Hope to see him before eod)
 
ginter isn't a jubilife villager he's the leader of the ginkgo guild is why third party
 
i was supposed to be asleep rn you know. i was s'posta be all snoozing for another, like, 2 hours. who's bitter? i'm not bitter.
 
i genuinely have no brainpower to play rn. i was supPOSED to after a restful slumber but then motherfuckers started celebrating labor day in the next room so fuck me i guess
 
reasons for voting berbe:

  1. funny
  2. 2. i don't buy they chose town ovver 2 funni 3ps
  3. 3. gut feeling
 
About 3 hours to EoD.

Elimination votes:

Herbe - RedneckPhoenix (#34)
haneko - lolfoxes (#54)
Butterfree - haneko (#104)
RedneckPhoenix - M&F (#126)

Conspiracy votes:
Conspiracy - Herbe (#41), Jack (#43), Butterfree (#57), Zero Moment (#65), RedneckPhoenix (#66), haneko (#105)
No conspiracy - lolfoxes (#58)
 
sorry a Whole Fucking Thing consumed my last hour

anyway to steal the whole tier thing. i was agonizing over this and reshuffling tbh.,

trust
rnp
lolfoxes
jack
mf
---
bfree
(zm, haneko)
untrust


its hard cause like theres definitely less Actually Town folk because of faction shenaniganery in such a small game. and im kinda worried that my tierlist is just an Active Player list yknow. i really really don't love the bfree inactive situation but i also know that she might be less prone to being inactive if she was mafia? again this isnt based on me doing my homework but just... idk. i know life busy-ness isn't alignment indicative but i'd think that maybe if she had an ingroup that was relying on her she'd be puttin in more posts. i don't want to like... idk treat inactivity as TI. and maybe its part of a strategic thing! who knows. i'd be willing to leave a butterfree vote for the sake of pressure for now. buuuuuuut I think that that "unclaimed role" might might might be haneko's real role in a reach-out attempt to other outgroup folks, idk if cults get private comms? maybe they do maybe they don't? so like maybe there would be worth in a haneko vote here for 1) the sake of possibly un-culting ourselves or 2) revealing more about bfree upon flip. because conversely i don't think we learn anything on a butterfree flip here honestly. but if haneko is 3p then we don't learn anything about bfree either... hm. (and would we even Learn Anything if haneko was W? cause bfree could always randomly be the other faction in that scenario.)

rnp i think is genuine Wherever it's coming from. i really do think he would scheme about choosing town just to pull one over on me like this. he wins wifom w me every time :( i appreciate the foxes solvitude and such and i like the cut of jack's gib and his contributionopinions. i think mf could easily pull a fast one, no issue there at all, i think that her Activity isn't AI cause she is Active and Smart and although i like her progression on me and the rnp scenario i do think that it would be the best strategic move anyway not to just park on me during the whole extension if she was W. so i would probably want something a little more concrete, past d1, to move her up in my trustery.

alright lets look at votery. tbh ZM said that he was waiting for haneko to come say anything and idk if he's been online in the past 12 hours since haneko Did In Fact Say Something but it really is just such little activity. but honestly i'm really worried about him getting the doublevote without having a good read on his potential trustwormthiness... considering the imminent doublevote i'd place him at a bit higher threat level than he normally would. i don't love this because again i don't think we Big Learn but maybe this just isn't a game where we're able to Big Learn from flips bc so much multiballage. anyway. i'm not opposed to a 5 way randomization so why not ZMvote for now?
 
Oof, 2.5 hours left.

Much as a four-way (refresh page before posting:) five-way rand would be hilarious, it also would be extremely silly and not useful. Word vomit on the wagons incoming:

Herbe - I agree with M&F #121 and other posts that Herbe has seemed basically towny, and I'm really not inclined to use wifommy "what would this person pick?" logic

haneko - head empty, discussion so far seems to be in circles about whether their play style is an indicator despite them not having said much outside of aforementioned discussion of their play style... too meta for me to think through very hard. plus, they said they've been sick and I, bleeding heart, don't want to vote out a person D1 when they've been low-activity due to sickness

Butterfree - would love to hear more from her! definitely prefer not to do an inactive yeet on D1

RNP - my thoughts are still essentially as in my #82 where if it were anyone else, I'd feel like he's acting openwolfy, but also I feel like he's inclined to act like this naturally in general so I can't tell if it's an indicator

ZM - confirmed based on stated mechanics (unless those mechanics are bastardy?) to not be the conspiracy role, but that still doesn't clear him from being anything else. more active than Butterfree but I still feel like he goes in the low-activity prefer-not-to-yeet-yet bucket?

by process of elimination and because I am somewhat persuaded by M&F #121's logic in how Herbe/RNP can help solve each other, I kinda feel like yeeting RNP? but I'm open to being talked out of it and into something else since D1 with no nightkill N0 is such a null situation

RNP
 
alright lets look at votery. tbh ZM said that he was waiting for haneko to come say anything and idk if he's been online in the past 12 hours since haneko Did In Fact Say Something but it really is just such little activity. but honestly i'm really worried about him getting the doublevote without having a good read on his potential trustwormthiness... considering the imminent doublevote i'd place him at a bit higher threat level than he normally would. i don't love this because again i don't think we Big Learn but maybe this just isn't a game where we're able to Big Learn from flips bc so much multiballage. anyway. i'm not opposed to a 5 way randomization so why not ZMvote for now?
I read, I contemplated, and I did not see a reason to jump on the Haneko bandwagon. imo the doublevote is inconsequential since everyone getting it means the doubles are cancelled out for everyone except the conspirator, who essentially gets a half vote. I guess Haneko is the least in danger since the lolhydra is voting 'wrong' today.
 
alright lets look at votery. tbh ZM said that he was waiting for haneko to come say anything and idk if he's been online in the past 12 hours since haneko Did In Fact Say Something but it really is just such little activity. but honestly i'm really worried about him getting the doublevote without having a good read on his potential trustwormthiness... considering the imminent doublevote i'd place him at a bit higher threat level than he normally would. i don't love this because again i don't think we Big Learn but maybe this just isn't a game where we're able to Big Learn from flips bc so much multiballage. anyway. i'm not opposed to a 5 way randomization so why not ZMvote for now?
I read, I contemplated, and I did not see a reason to jump on the Haneko bandwagon. imo the doublevote is inconsequential since everyone getting it means the doubles are cancelled out for everyone except the conspirator, who essentially gets a half vote. I guess Haneko is the least in danger since the lolhydra is voting 'wrong' today.
If there is a conspiracy and the target of the conspiracy correctly identifies this, they will be granted 1 extra elimination vote during the next day phase.

The doubles aren't cancelled out unless there's no conspiracy. So since there is a conspiracy only you get the doublevote
 
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