Re: [D7] ASB Halloween Mafia
I'm sorry,
Eifie, but I'm going to say you're the remaining mafia after all.
I liek Squirtles came forward as inspector on day 2 by accusing Keldeo. This would have been a really risky move for the mafia - either opening himself up to a counterclaim from a real inspector, or if there were no counterclaim, getting a mafia member killed. It's
plausible for the mafia to pull this sort of gambit, since
if there's no counterclaim the sacrifice definitely buys trust for the supposed inspector.
However, Keldeo in particular would definitely not have agreed to this plan if it were proposed, since we now know Keldeo and MF were lovers. Keldeo wouldn't even have had to reveal they were lovers to argue against the plan - just raise some of the very sensible risk arguments against doing this at this stage, propose ILS claim to have inspected someone innocent first, try to argue for throwing Flora under the bus instead, etc.
Conveniently, of course, Keldeo wasn't lynched... because you then hopped in and claimed to have redirected ILS to Flora. And this bought you instant credibility too, since Flora flipping mafia appeared to confirm your roleclaim! In reality, we now know ILS's original inspection result was correct if no redirection happened at all. Curious, that.
If ILS were actually mafia trying to sacrifice Keldeo for credibility and Keldeo simply went rogue against what ILS thought was an agreed-upon plan (which seems a spectacularly poor idea - makes it obvious to the mafia that something is up and Keldeo can't be trusted, at which point Keldeo could just as well have privately revealed it to talk them out of the plan), then the fact Keldeo maintained innocence by bringing up the possibility of redirection or something else that might confuse inspection results,
and then a real redirector just so happened to turn out to have redirected ILS to somebody else who just so happened to also be a mafia member, is just a big massive coincidence, a coincidence that was incredibly convenient for Keldeo while perfectly maintaining ILS's cover. Amazing, that!
Conversely, if you were mafia, you, Flora and Keldeo would simply have discussed and coordinated this - you knew that trying to counterclaim, or claim you redirected the inspection to somebody who's actually innocent, would pretty much inevitably sacrifice one of you anyway, so why not let the inevitable sacrifice buy some real apparent roleclaim credibility for the mafia? Maybe it was even Keldeo's idea (or MF's relayed through Keldeo) - lovers coming up with a plan to avoid being the sacrifice, without revealing that they're lovers.
In other circumstantial evidence, you immediately shot down my plan of having me and SS heal Keldeo and Keldeo heal ILS - which would have meant overdosing Keldeo, since unknown to me, we really were both doctors.
More importantly, if I was mafia, why on earth would I have stopped the Butterfree train yesterday and voted for Keldeo instead?
That one's easy: you realized Keldeo and MF were lovers, or might be lovers.
I thought it was a little weird how suddenly you turned completely on a dime there when there genuinely wasn't any unequivocal evidence for Keldeo being mafia over me; I honestly became pretty wary, because I couldn't help but read it as you deciding to support me
because I said I thought you'd been playing very town, which wouldn't matter to a real town player.
So suppose Keldeo was the mafia don, and you had become conscious of the possibility of Keldeo and MF being lovers, but couldn't do anything about it, being a goon. If I was lynched, Keldeo and MF would have free rein to off you and ILS in any order. On the other hand, if Keldeo was lynched and they were lovers, the fact I'd just indicated I trusted you opened up the possibility that I'd side with you against ILS later, allowing for a mafia win after all. (Meanwhile, if they
hadn't turned out to be lovers, MF was clearly still mafia-aligned what with the supposed town inspection of Keldeo, so after getting Keldeo lynched, you could have offed me and then told MF "I'm mafia; let's lynch ILS.")
Meanwhile, you'll recall ILS cast the tiebreaker vote between me and Keldeo. What's your theory on why
he'd vote for Keldeo there, if he was mafia? If
he'd known/suspected they were lovers and wanted to root them out, it would have been much easier for him to use his inspector credibility to get that done (either by claiming he'd inspected Keldeo again on a hunch, or by drawing attention to the fact Keldeo wasn't actually inspected by him, instead of
throwing doubt on other inspections), instead of faking confusion and, apparently, gambling on you/me just happening to decide to vote for Keldeo. It's possible if it only just occurred to him they were lovers after all the discussion (even though the discussion didn't actually bring up that possibility), I suppose, but that's a very narrow window, compared to how your actions make sense even if you'd known or suspected for some time, since you didn't have the same credibility.
Meanwhile, if he was mafia and didn't suspect Keldeo and MF of being lovers, there was literally no reason for him to vote for Keldeo over me there.
While you've been very active, I think the evidence strongly points to you over ILS as the remaining mafia, and I don't think ILS's playing has honestly been at all suspicious - he's acted exactly like a genuine inspector who just doesn't have that much to say or get that much into in-depth strategizing.