Cats (2019) Mafia

[mewtini]

..... oops and i'm mistoffelees

 

[Butterfree]

What about the dead people?

 

[mewtini]

ok i'm going to stop posting soon but i'll go back over happenings at some point tonight, didn't get a chance to earlier because i was on mobile all day. throwing my hat in the kyeugh ring in the meantime

 

[Novae]

..... oops and i'm mistoffelees

[insert mist pun here]

 

[mewtini]

What about the dead people?

oh, sorry!

- rnp (jailer)
- VM (jennyanydots, vig)
- herbe (victoria, rolecop)
- emmy (cop)
- ultracool (?)
- keldeo (?)
- myuma (?)
- tofu (lynchproof)
- ILS (doctor, acc. to herbe)
- stryke (VT)
- mawile (?)
- seshas (? but i tracked her n0 and got no result)

 

[Novae]

What about the dead people?

VM vig, Tofu yeetproof [potential GF], RNP jailer, emmy cop, herbe rolecop, ILS doc via herbe result

 

[mewtini]

ftr i think that, if there is a godfather, it's equally likely to be myuma tbh? idk. just inclined to think so since VM was town. i agree that maybe that's not the most productive train of thought to go with but like ... thinking of a 3-person scumteam feels far different to me than thinking of a 4-person scumteam :/ mostly because i can neatly throw 3 people from my personal list into a wolfsquad -

 

[mewtini]

not that we should be split down the 3 or 4-road by any means, that was confusing. just voicing my own weirdness about the topic

 

[mewtini]

granted, in the broader sense, i also feel like there must be a godfather in the game because the coexistence of rolecop and cop is really weird otherwise. i think

 

[Novae]

that's probably fair? but it doesn't confirm that a godfather would flip as not scum or even if it does that it's not still alive

I think we should treat this as if there are 4 scum alive rn

 

[Trebek]

yeah, i think im just confbiased bc my PoE makes much more sense if 3 mafia are alive :p

 

[rari_teh]

me as well tbh
i did a myuma ISO and, while some things are in hindsight, it would make no sense for keldeo to bus the godfather out of nowhere

 

[rari_teh]

ok, the thread has been silent for a while, so lookatthisgraph.mp3

Spoiler: D1 vote history

Spoiler: D1 vote history (cropped to the beginning of the main wagons’ formation)

Spoiler: D2 vote history

Spoiler: D3 vote history

Spoiler: D4 vote history

i was going to say that one of those sharp rises on keldeo’s wagon was likely to be a bus, but then i looked into the vote history and i’m not that sure anymore tbh

 

[Novae]

I would say look into that huge rise of the RNP wagon because it might have been to save keldeo tbh

 

[rari_teh]

I would say look into that huge rise of the RNP wagon because it might have been to save keldeo tbh

good thought! i just checked and it was vm, qva, tofu, mewt, trebek and blu… given that most of those are conftown, i don’t think that was coördinated
i was also going to look at vm’s wagon’s genesis that day, but that one was, well, you and me :v

 

[Trebek]

Oh, someone was asking about cat names/roles earlier, i am Syllabub

 

[Butterfree]

Okay. Ten town power roles. The claimed power roles that we have are, in order of town confirmedness (from my POV):

- butterfree (fishing brother)
- mp7 (fishing brother)
- emmy (cop, flipped town)
- VM (jennyanydots, vig, flipped town)
- tofu (lynchproof, flipped town)
- rnp (jailer, flipped town)
- herbe (victoria, rolecop, flipped town)
- ILS (doctor, acc. to herbe, flipped town)
- mewtini (copclear + JoaT)
- rari (munkustrap, neighborizer)
- kyeugh (old deuteronomy, one-shot necromancer)

That's eleven people, so assuming the dead people who flipped town are genuinely town, at least one of rari and kyeugh must be mafia.

The godfather speculation... leaves me kind of ehhh. Thing is, godfather who not only inspects but flips as town strikes me as pretty weird? Outgroup mafia flipping town kind of makes sense; the mafia will have interacted with them as if they were town. But having a godfather ingroup mafia who flips town just kind of puts everything up in the air; suddenly we can't even do wagon analysis on apparent town wagons? It strikes me as confusing in an unfair way. The way I'd GM a godfather role, at least, would involve them appearing town to a cop, but still flipping correctly. So mewtini could theoretically be a godfather, but again seems unlikely when she was also rolecopped as a JOAT; the godfatherness would have to be an invisible modifier on the JOAT role, and at that point the whole logic of cops and rolecops coexisting because of a godfather breaks down because the rolecop can't investigate them as a godfather either. So, I dunno, I'm inclined to assume everyone who flipped town is an actual townie, and mewtini is probably just a townie too.

Could rari and kyeugh both be mafia, and the whole conflict between them wolf theater to ensure we clear rari after lynching kyeugh? Mmmm, feels like a stretch, but I guess I wouldn't entirely put it past this mafia? If they are both mafia, then there was one more town power role in the unclaimed dead villagers, while otherwise they all happen to be vanilla town, which is a little funny, but I guess we have some circumstantial evidence: mewtini's tracking result suggests Seshas had no night action; myuma didn't feel the need to claim when she had to leave when she was one of the leading wagons and wouldn't be back for EoD; Mawile we of course know nothing about but it doesn't feel too bad to assume one dead villager simply happened to be a townie as opposed to three. There's no obvious town role we'd expect to be seeing in that list, either. So my working assumption will be they probably just were all VT and only one of rari and kyeugh is lying.

With 21 players and 6 mafia, there'd be five vanilla townies on top of the power roles and two vanilla mafia goons. We've got five VT claims (Bluwiikoon, Mist, Trebek, kokorico, and Stryke), but obviously, if the three dead unclaimed townies were all VT, that means three of them are actually mafia. Stryke is dead and confirmed townie, so effectively that means three out of Bluwii/Mist/Trebek/kokorico must be mafia. The one I'm most inclined to call town is probably Bluwii? Otherwise Keldeo's counterclaim was some real 4D chess to... make Bluwii look townier when Keldeo flipped? Actually that's not impossible and could be kind of clever, hrmm. But Bluwii's reaction there struck me as very genuine, and Bluwii's ISO again felt super towny to me even when I went into it suspicious, so I'm still disinclined.

Technically, if most of us accept the premise that there's one mafia in [rari, kyeugh] and three mafia in [Bluwii, Mist, Trebek, kokorico], we've got better chances lynching within the latter, if we think there's at all a significant chance we're all being bamboozled by rari. I still think I've found pretty significant evidence kyeugh is mafia, particularly since Keldeo is scum. But I haven't actually reread rari or any of the others so I'm left what-if-ing. Hrmmm. I would like to do more reading, but there's no way I'm going to manage to ISO everyone before the day ends.

 

[rari_teh]

btw i realized something the other night
if the fishing brothers are mafia like trebek was tinfoiling and the mafia wins at parity, we should *not* kill any of them, otherwise the mafia will have two shots and autowin the next Night
in other words, discussing their alignment is, in the situation we find ourselves in, kind of a moot point

 

[Novae]

Could rari and kyeugh both be mafia, and the whole conflict between them wolf theater to ensure we clear rari after lynching kyeugh?

I am strongly of the opinion that it's a no because I don't think rari could fake a neighbor chat with kyeugh to the extent they did

 

[mewtini]

fwiw the quotes i saw were like, directly quoted/'linked' from their pm (i imagine jack allowed that because people in the thread wouldn't know if i was lying about this or not?) but yeah