Ace Attorney Mafia [mafia victoly!]

[Eifie]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

I think it was pointed out that one of those nokills could possibly have been the Mafia targeting me (I roleclaimed Maya channeling Lamiroir), if the night actions work in such a way so that if I were targeted by the Mafia the same night I channeled Lamiroir that Lamiroir's power could still kick in. But I have no way of knowing if the Mafia targeted me or not, and it's foolish to assume that when the nokill could very well have been the true activation of the alien.

I really don't know what to believe right now. :/

That's why I said it was highly likely, not certain.

Vixie was previously targeted by the dayblocker, whom we've concluded was Mafia, correct? Therefore it's likely (once again, not certain) that the Mafia would have targeted her to kill some other time as well, since her dayblocking implies that the Mafia thought of her as a threat. If she is, in fact, the alien, that seems a more likely version of what happened one of the nights with no kills.

...I need to think of a synonym for "likely".

 

[Butterfree]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

Bwuhh, why am I mafia all of a sudden? D: Have we already forgotten that res and I squared off and he turned out to be mafia?

I know nothing about that. All I know is you were lying. :/ I also noticed that after Res claimed Ron, you were awfully quick to go "Um, oh, sorry, I wasn't actually Ron, I was Luke; never mind."

Now, Vixie has accused me. Please note, everyone, how

1) Vixie has not explained why she lied - if she were an innocent who for any reason felt they should lie, she would immediately come clear upon confrontation, wouldn't she?
2) She has not gone "wtf, no, I wasn't lying, Butterfree is mafia", either. She only accused me, again, after some deliberation, where me being mafia would be the first thing anyone would think if I stated I knew for a fact they were lying when they weren't.
3) She's going "Why is the mafia keeping the oracle alive?!" even after healers have stated in the thread that they've been healing me - rather desperate, don't you think?
4) Whatever she is, she is clearly not Elise; if she were, she would certainly have called me out on claiming it long ago. If you were to lynch one of us and then go for the other if that one is not mafia, it is pretty plain that Vixie almost definitely has the less useful role and would be a better candidate for immediate lynching, né?

Though I am pretty convinced she is mafia, I'll concede that the possibility of alien is high enough that we might want to abstain and ask about alien activation; that said, however, our time is really running out, what with opal dead. If the mafia go for Kratos next, nothing will stop them from killing me after that, and then we no longer have an oracle. I'm sticking with my vote for Vixie, but it's your call.

 

[Autumn]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

if only there were some way to tell during the day phase whether the alien were activated. (of course, that kind of defeats the whole point, but.)

does anyone have any clues which could help lead to Vixie being mafia or alien or someone else being mafia or alien? I'm of the opinion that we need to lynch just because time really is running out for innocents, but it's like a mine field.

 

[Adriane]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

3) She's going "Why is the mafia keeping the oracle alive?!" even after healers have stated in the thread that they've been healing me - rather desperate, don't you think?

If opal was in fact overdosed, that means you can't possibly have been healed last night.

4) Whatever she is, she is clearly not Elise; if she were, she would certainly have called me out on claiming it long ago. If you were to lynch one of us and then go for the other if that one is not mafia, it is pretty plain that Vixie almost definitely has the less useful role and would be a better candidate for immediate lynching, né?

No, I'm definitely not Elise. I'm Atmey :\ Now I realise that doesn't keep me from being "useless" during the night, my presence still gives one more vote during the daytime.

As for the alien accusations, I've been pretty diligent in trying to avoid the alien myself (example). Alien victory is hard enough, the last thing I'd want to do is make it more difficult on myself.

Now, since the numerous no-death nights may just have been Butterfree getting attacked and also healed, I'm willing to change my vote if we can develop an actual lead here; but as my head is on the chopping block otherwise...

 

[Phoenixsong]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

The following post is a relatively rambly collection of thoughts/observations that I am attempting to sort out into some sort of logical flow but I may not succeed at it! And even so I still don't know what to do, but I want all of this out there for easy reference. And it's taking a while to write and double-check, so other people will probably ninja me by like two hours and I'm trying to keep up but bear that in mind.

Okay, let's see. We're on Day 6 right now. A quick rundown of the deaths and a few other pertinent things thus far this game:

Night 1: dragonair (not mafia) is nightkilled.
Day 1: no lynch.
Night 2: no deaths, but I was asleep.
Day 2: werefish5 (not mafia) is lynched.
Night 3: Walker (not mafia), demonickittens (not mafia) and St. Christopher (not mafia) are nightkilled; Vixie is asleep. This is the last time that Butterfree claimed to have asked about alien activation; Diego was not activated at this point.
Day 3: Dannichu (mafia) is lynched.
Night 4: no deaths, no one is asleep.
Day 4: no lynch.
Night 5: no deaths, no one is asleep.
Day 5: res (mafia) is lynched.
Night 6: opal (not mafia) is nightkilled, no one is asleep.

Two mafiosi and six apparent innocents dead. As I said in an earlier post, I am confident that Dannichu was the variable that chose Will Powers' Steak. Silencing is generally a really stupid power for an innocent to choose, and why would the mafia not still be silencing helpful innocents, right? This leaves one variable left, and both res and Vixie claimed to be that variable. They can't both have been telling the truth if Danni was a variable, too; they could also both be lying.

"Both are lying" is unlikely, though, as we can be pretty sure that most of the dead innocents had other roles. On N3, at the very least, we know that we lost Alita and one of Klavier/Apollo. Furthermore, Walker claimed Lamiroir and it's a safe bet that he was telling the truth. Walker was probably Alita's lover, then, and St. Christopher and demonickittens would have to be Alita and the lawyer-brother (doesn't matter which was which). And opaltiger claimed to be Pal. This leaves only dragonair and werefish5 with no role indication of any sort, unless werefish dropped some sort of hint that I've missed; even then, if we believe Butterfree and are interpreting her question about Gumshoe correctly, one of the two must have been Gumshoe. The remaining player could have been the other real variable, but there's nothing really leaning in favor of that given the large number of players in this game. It's also unlikely that a living player is the "real second variable", because otherwise wouldn't they have roleclaimed in an attempt to get rid of the impostor(s)? (If one of you is the real other Ron/Luke then for god's sake say something, dammit.)

So as it stands, either res or Vixie must be Ron/Luke with an unknown night action (for the record we can probably rule out Max Galactica's Cards, the Judge's Gavel and another Steak, because the first two are also stupid and, again, why no more silencing?). res claimed to be a roleblocker, Vixie claims to have the clothing box. This is where it starts to get a little muddy. If opal was indeed Pal, then the only way he could've died last night is if I was roleblocked or distracted. I really, really hope that Ema isn't dumb enough to try and stop an effectively confirmed and useful innocent; Trucy attempting to steal my protection and keep herself safe is more forgivable, but still very annoying. To settle this, then, Ema and Trucy, I'd appreciate an admission to either targeting me or not targeting me. If neither of you targeted me then yes, we probably do have a mafia roleblocker on our hands. If opal was not Pal, I think now would be a pretty good time for the real doctor/whoever channeled him to say something, too. (Hell, I'm almost tempted to ask the new inspector to reveal themselves while we're at it, but I think at this juncture they would've spoken up if they'd received a guilty on anyone or an innocent on anyone who'd come under suspicion--especially before, when there were two outed doctors who could've protected them for a little while longer. As such, they probably don't have any useful information atm and should stay hidden until they can find more.)

We also know that res was ultimately mafia, whatever its role may have been. It's true that the whole argument might have been staged once it became clear that res was doomed, but I doubt it would've come to that--if they were mafia with the ability to speak with one another then they would've known the true roles of everyone on their side, and it would've been very easy for them to coordinate fakeclaims that would not be at odds with one another in the first place. res made its claim on D1, so even if they hadn't discussed it beforehand Vixie should've known (especially if she knew that Danni was mafia) that also claiming variable would lead to unnecessary conflict. res would've been fine for a while longer had there been no slip, so why start an argument if it's possible for both to stay in play at that point? If Vixie were de Killer and truly suspected that res was mafia, she wouldn't have voted to lynch it at first (recall that she started the nomination right after I caught res's slip and before most others had a chance to give input, and the only reason she backed off was because I pointed out the possibility of res being active Diego).

All that to say that I really don't think Vixie is mafia of any sort, though whether or not she's innocent or alien remains to be seen.

...I'm not really sure where to go from there. :/ If Ema/Trucy/blah didn't stop me then that means there has to be a mafia roleblocker, but if it's not Vixie then who is it? Blargh. I... I don't know. Damn.

 

[Butterfree]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

If opal was in fact overdosed, that means you can't possibly have been healed last night.

Doesn't matter - the mafia had no way of knowing that beforehand and probably wouldn't have targeted me anyway, what with the high likelihood that I'd be healed. Furthermore, as I pointed out, there might have been a mafia roleblocker at work.

I realize staging the argument seems unnecessary, but I actually think one of them might have honestly slipped up, probably res, and they then sacrificed res in order to cover up the mistake and provide extra insurance for Vixie while they were at it. Or something in that direction. Vixie is behaving a lot more mafialike than alienlike, at least. Though I guess you've convinced me it's probably worth it to wait. :/

 

[Clover]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

words

omg kratos have i told you lately that i love you.

your reward: you were correct about some things and wrong about others and one possibility completely slipped your mind in one of the paragraphs! :D

I am filled with glee and flail at these discussions you guys you have ~no idea~ ♥

 

[Eifie]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

Isn't it possible that werefish5 was Dahlia? No one seems to have mentioned this at all, but it just occured to me earlier that that could be true.

 

[Phoenixsong]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

Midnight: <3

Actually, I'm aware there's a lot that I "overlooked", though some of it seemed trivial and/or I had to tell myself to stop somewhere. This is mafia; there's always another possibility. For example, off the top of my head I know I left off "the dayblocker could still be alive but is refraining from using their action to make us think it was Danni", though I didn't bother saying it because quite frankly I think that is the dumbest ruse ever and am giving the mafia enough credit to believe that they wouldn't waste a chance to shut someone important up--if anything, they'd want us to think that Danni had a more important role than that so we thought we were closer to winning than we really were. (Though I wouldn't be surprised if I did outright forget something.)

And why do you say that, Emerald Espeon? The haunter/woodcutter role generally kills someone at the same time that they are lynched, and werefish5 died alone. Unless Midnight GMs that role differently (do you?), she either didn't choose a target and so her action was wasted, or she couldn't have been Dahlia.

 

[Eifie]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

OH SORRY for some reason I was sure that the target dies the following night but reading the description again that's not actually right.

 

[Butterfree]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

That said, Vixie could be Dahlia! After all, the final decision was that Dahlia is mafia-aligned but doesn't know who they are, which fits with accusing res and all that, and with the lying, and with the tentative "Oh, wait, actually I was Luke Atmey, sorry" before she changed her mind.

Though that is... rather unfortunate, because if we lynch her she'll take someone down with her, and... odds are it's going to be me. :/

 

[Phoenixsong]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

She could, but that's really no different than what I mentioned about her being de Killer above. It's even riskier to push a lynch at that point, in fact, because while you're happily trying to off someone who's on your side, the mafia thinks you're an overeager innocent and wants to get rid of you.

I still want to know why my protection didn't work. Get on, Ema and Trucy, and answer my question. :/

 

[Wargle]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

I can give you this info.

Vixie is not a fishing brother.

I am Apollo and werefish5 was what'shisname. When werefish died, I revenge killed St. Chris.

I hope you trust me enough, because this is all true. Why would I lie about being useless now?

 

[Espeon]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

I still think it is an exceptionally bad idea to lynch anyone we're suspicious of being the Alien.

If opal is brought back to decide between Butterfree and Vixie in the voting, he'll either have to kill off Butterfree for the sake of not letting Vixie win, potentially, as the activated alien or risk killing Vixie as a means of protecting the oracle.

Forgive me if this is a stupid suggestion but, if Butterfree were to retract her nomination, would it not be extremely incriminating should Vixie keep her vote for Butterfree? It would almost immediately single her out as being the activated alien, as Butterfree could no longer ask about the alien being active, keeping all other players in the dark about the alien's current state. We could essentially force abstaining if Butterfree removes her vote/nomination.
It seems like a bit of a grim option but, I'd rather have another night with no lynch than losing the oracle, or the game entirely due to bad voting.

 

[Butterfree]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

Eh. I guess.

Still doubt she's activated alien, but! Abstain.

 

[Adriane]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

Fair enough. Abstain.

 

[Clover]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

And why do you say that, Emerald Espeon? The haunter/woodcutter role generally kills someone at the same time that they are lynched, and werefish5 died alone. Unless Midnight GMs that role differently (do you?), she either didn't choose a target and so her action was wasted, or she couldn't have been Dahlia.

Yes, Dahlia would attack at the same time if lynched, though if it were Apollo/Klavier, as their role description calls for them using "the next night action", their victims would appear in the morning.

Seven more hours... but likely more, as I'm not getting back on at 1:20a just to post. :xa

 

[Phoenixsong]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

Mkay, cool. As I thought.

Meanwhile! I do agree that waiting on the Vixie-Butterfree thing is a good idea, but I also agree that we're running low on time and that my days, at least, are probably numbered. If opal was Pal and then I die then there is... a problem. Is there no one else who's a likely lynch candidate at all? We really ought to take advantage of what time we have and get some information. Come on, you guys who haven't posted in a while! At least pretend to make yourselves useful! Don't tell me it's that whole "waah but I don't know how to contribute" thing again... come on, at least one of you must be Ema or Trucy and can help at least a little bit by telling me whether or not you attempted to block or distract me last night. I'm giving you cues, you don't even really have to think for yourself here!

 

[Clover]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

Final vote: two abstain.

The group leaves the courtroom to return home.

Forty-eight for actions.

 

[Clover]

Re: Ace Attorney Mafia

It was a dark and stormy night...

The citizens, their number quickly becoming smaller, forced themselves to confront the body in front of them, then looked away, either in humiliation and disgust that they could not prevent another death of an innocent, or to hide a smile that their plan would soon be complete.

Kratos Aurion is dead. He was not mafia.

Forty-eight hours for discussion.