Animal Crossing: New Horizons Mafia

[tbh²]

i suppose that like, if i'm scum, i could be trying to milk for info so i know which of my pals can safely fakeclaim or whatever
but the reason i pressed is that i think there's a fair bit of plausible deniability in trebek's claim
-m

 

[qenya]

... if we're mafia and do indeed plan to nk VF, why do we not just block vig on the offchance that he hits scum???

Because he's more likely to hit town, and if he hits town, he dies, as per his claim. Why waste your nightkill on someone who's probably not lasting very long even without your intervention? I think I did cover this in my post above ("fragile vigilante"), if perhaps not quite as clearly as I could have done.

I don't know what you mean by "tilting" in this context, but I do acknowledge the talking-in-third-person bit is not the strongest piece of evidence I could have presented. I mostly pointed it out because I thought it was funny, not because it's, like, some sort of massive smoking gun of a scumtell.

----

Anywho - claim time!

My fingers are heavily, heavily crossed here, because it's gonna be a real "loltown crown" moment if there's something I'm missing as regards the setup and I end up causing an incorrect lynch. But, well, it's a game of imperfect knowledge, there are always going to be risks.

I'm Mable (the sister of Sable and Label, for the non-AC-playing philistines), and just like Mawile's, my role flavour describes how sewing is a remarkably similar pastime to the practice of medicine, making me a qualified Doctor. I healed Keldeif on N0 and VF on N1; the former as a coinflip between them and Seshas, the two strongest players, which clearly went the wrong way, and the latter because I assumed they were either a cop or mafia, and the heal would be useful in the first case and at least non-damaging in the second. Presumably raritini's block on me is why VF nevertheless died.

(The odd link between "sewing" and "doctor", by the way, is why I briefly considered asking raritini yesterDay about the link between her pastime and her role, to see if it was also a kinda dubious connection for her.)

Town Jailer/Bodyguard + Town Doctor in an setup originally designed for 11 people is a bit of a stretch, which is why I was a bit about Blu's claim even though I wanted to believe him, but just about within the realms of possibility. Another doctor on top of that is not. I do believe that Mawile is a doctor, because of the flavour, but there's no way he's town-aligned.

I provided ample breadcrumbs near the beginning of the thread - I literally said "I am the Doctor" lmfao. (Another of my favourites is "clinical precision".)

 

[tbh²]

fwiw i kind of think trebek was maybe towny through that exchange, but i'm paranoid about the claim
-m

 

[qenya]

FWIW, I would rather see raritini yeeted today than Mawile, because with the vig gone, mafia roleblocker is way more useful than mafia doctor.

 

[tbh²]

I don't know what you mean by "tilting" in this context, but I do acknowledge the talking-in-third-person bit is not the strongest piece of evidence I could have presented.

tilting as in frustrating tbh, i find it a weird shading attempt

Because he's more likely to hit town, and if he hits town, he dies, as per his claim. Why waste your nightkill on someone who's probably not lasting very long even without your intervention? I think I did cover this in my post above ("fragile vigilante"), if perhaps not quite as clearly as I could have done.

this is pointless considering what actually happened but i see no world where mafia is like yes. there is a likely vig. let's hope he doesn't hit one of us and gamble on him hitting a townie! and voluntarily decides to just, let the vig fire and hope it works out. at least that is really not what i'd do as scum lmfao, with only two PRs alive, one set to be the nightkill, and the other as a vig

anyway in light of claim i guess this sort of splits us between like the two doctors?

@Mawile i am curious about thoughts when you come back

 

[tbh²]

with only two PRs alive

claimed, not alive
-m

 

[qenya]

do you not see that it's possible for him to be w/w with someone and trying to give himself room to worm his way out of things? i am actually interested in your take on it because i just don't think that saying "hi i'm an inforole" would plausibly force the remaining unclaimed players to suddenly tell the truth

Oh, it's definitely possible for him to be a wolf - which is why I specifically said "if you're town" to him. But if he is, then he might well be lying about his inforole anyway, so what would have been the point of trying to give him advice about how to use it?

I don't see how it's possible to be confused by the idea that Trebek having information about an unclaimed player, but not saying what it is, would encourage unclaimed players to avoid lying as much as possible.

 

[qenya]

this is pointless considering what actually happened but i see no world where mafia is like yes. there is a likely vig. let's hope he doesn't hit one of us and gamble on him hitting a townie! and voluntarily decides to just, let the vig fire and hope it works out. at least that is really not what i'd do as scum lmfao, with only two PRs alive, one set to be the nightkill, and the other as a vig

If you don't think you, as mafia, would have let the vig live, presumably the alternative is that you would have let the person you thought was a cop - VF - live? That makes considerably less sense as a mafia strategy, if you ask me.

 

[tbh²]

because as i said inforoles always exist and there's always some semblance of having to be careful. part of playing the game is BASED on guessing around what info other people could have, where you can cut corners, and where you can't. what about this specific scenario means that someone with a fakeclaim is going to all of a sudden be like, oh shit, better tell the truth now

If you don't think you, as mafia, would have let the vig live, presumably the alternative is that you would have let the person you thought was a cop - VF - live? That makes considerably less sense as a mafia strategy, if you ask me.

we are talking about roleblocking, not nightkilling

 

[tbh²]

semblance

knowledge*
words,
-m

 

[qenya]

because as i said inforoles always exist and there's always some semblance of having to be careful. part of playing the game is BASED on guessing around what info other people could have, where you can cut corners, and where you can't. what about this specific scenario means that someone with a fakeclaim is going to all of a sudden be like, oh shit, better tell the truth now

It's not a certain thing, no - like you said, what is? But it improves the chances of getting truthful information.

This isn't confusing, and as I don't believe that you are actually finding it so, I'm not inclined to expend much more effort explaining it.

If you don't think you, as mafia, would have let the vig live, presumably the alternative is that you would have let the person you thought was a cop - VF - live? That makes considerably less sense as a mafia strategy, if you ask me.

we are talking about roleblocking, not nightkilling

Uh. No we aren't. Maybe read the last few posts again?

 

[tbh²]

... if we're mafia and do indeed plan to nk VF, why do we not just block vig on the offchance that he hits scum???

we're literally talking about this post
i'm saying why do i as roleblocker voluntarily block someone outside of {vig, cop} (where i don't block cop because we plan on killing them)
your post is what said "so you let vf live?" when my point is that the pro mafia strat where i'm w!roleblocker should have been for us to block vigilante and kill vf, which obviously, isn't what transpired

This isn't confusing, and as I don't believe that you are actually finding it so, I'm not inclined to expend much more effort explaining it.

i never SAID it was confusing, i am saying that i think trebek committing to a result on someone is a far better way to extract information out of this scenario

-m

 

[tbh²]

it actually almost makes me think that there isn't a w!roleblocker given that jack was allowed to shoot but that is bad spec
-m

 

[tbh²]

If you don't think you, as mafia, would have let the vig live, presumably the alternative is that you would have let the person you thought was a cop - VF - live? That makes considerably less sense as a mafia strategy, if you ask me.

ie the conclusion you reach in this post doesn't make sense given that i never implied that letting the cop live was part of the hypothetical strategy. because. i was talking about blocking the vig, not "letting the vig live"

 

[qenya]

... if we're mafia and do indeed plan to nk VF, why do we not just block vig on the offchance that he hits scum???

we're literally talking about this post
i'm saying why do i as roleblocker voluntarily block someone outside of {vig, cop} (where i don't block cop because we plan on killing them)
your post is what said "so you let vf live?" when my point is that the pro mafia strat where i'm w!roleblocker should have been for us to block vigilante and kill vf, which obviously, isn't what transpired

Oh, I see what you're saying. I think the divergence of understanding happened slightly earlier than that, at the top of my #1402, so it was my fault. I do apologise for that.

But regardless, the point I'm making is the same regardless of whether we're talking about blocking Jack or killing him. Jack's role, given the lack of information everyone was operating under at the start of N1, was always more likely to be lethal to him than to the mafia. I would have thought you would be delighted for him to try to get a shot off.

 

[tbh²]

Because he's more likely to hit town, and if he hits town, he dies

and that i don't think it makes sense to lackadaisically decide to just let the vig shoot and hope he takes a townie down with him. so i'm not sure why you propose that because the vig is fragile, mafia would willingly gamble like this when there weren't even any other PRs to be taken care of. there were exactly two claimed, why not just handle both at once

 

[tbh²]

Jack's role, given the lack of information everyone was operating under at the start of N1, was always more likely to be lethal to him than to the mafia. I would have thought you would be delighted for him to try to get a shot off.

lol honestly i'm just surprised jack even decided to shoot this early given the repercussions, i kind of am wondering why (guessing he was afraid of dying before he was able to use the shot?)
but in re the second sentence, not really?? see post above
-m

 

[tbh²]

will stop talking about this because i'm kind of just frustrated, and this isn't really the point because it is only my personal Wolf Strat, but i think your argument doesn't hold up because the strategy for mafia - at least, as i play it when wolfing - is to hold onto members of the wolfteam when possible. sure i've bussed but it was in a scenario when it either helped my own cred or when the wolf was going down anyway

i don't know why you think that in a scenario where mafia can block the vigilante/presumably all town KP, at zero cost, they just decide to take their chances when they could just as easily protect their numbers

 

[qenya]

so i'm not sure why you propose that because the vig is fragile, mafia would willingly gamble like this when there weren't even any other PRs to be taken care of. there were exactly two claimed, why not just handle both at once

But there were "other PRs to be taken care of"! Why does being unclaimed make them less likely to be problematic? I already outlined how I thought you might have slimmed down the list of unclaimed players to who was likely to have a problematic PR (to repeat: me, MP7, and whichever of Mist and Trebek isn't the third mafioso).

lol honestly i'm just surprised jack even decided to shoot this early given the repercussions, i kind of am wondering why (guessing he was afraid of dying before he was able to use the shot?)

So you're saying that you weren't expecting him to take a night action at all? That's another good reason not to roleblock him, I suppose, yes.

 

[qenya]

will stop talking about this because i'm kind of just frustrated, and this isn't really the point because it is only my personal Wolf Strat, but i think your argument doesn't hold up because the strategy for mafia - at least, as i play it when wolfing - is to hold onto members of the wolfteam when possible. sure i've bussed but it was in a scenario when it either helped my own cred or when the wolf was going down anyway

i don't know why you think that in a scenario where mafia can block the vigilante/presumably all town KP, at zero cost, they just decide to take their chances when they could just as easily protect their numbers

Understandable. I think we've reached the point where there aren't any logical arguments left to make (since "what's mewt's standard wolf strategy?" isn't something either of us can provide proof of), and all that's left is which of us everyone else thinks is more believable.