Cats (2019) Mafia

[mewtini]

also, fwiw. if ultracool is ingroup then VM looks really good tbh.

 

[mewtini]

also, fwiw. if ultracool is ingroup then VM looks really good tbh.

on the other hand i thought VM was tunnelling ultracool as it was happening so now i'm back to "long-con bus?"land

 

[Herbe]

hey herbe. was ILS a PR?

yes

 

[Herbe]

that's why i'm so cautious about spilling his role :/ if he was vanilla i just would have said he's vanilla lmao

 

[mewtini]

yeah i probably should've just assumed he had a power role from your response earlier, i kinda forgot until the second after i'd asked :')

 

[Keldeo]

Oh @M Plus 7 actually, whenever you're done with that ISO I'd be interested in a general reads list / rainbow / gun-to-head thing from you. I feel like I don't have a good idea of where your head is at in general.

 

[Keldeo]

Ahh sorry I keep getting distracted.

I think I’m going to live in the world where Ultracool was I group for tonight so I can be more productive doing some ISOing when I get back, but it’d be cool for people to talk to me about what wagon they think his partners would be on, in that case?

He’d be an easy target for sure and so maybe they saw the writing on the wall about that and just went for it, but if Herbe is town I’m kind of puzzled by that choice given how contested EOD was. I’m also maybe underestimating how bussy the average wolf is heh.

No one answered my open question :(

that is also fair and I would not say that I am not illiterate!

I do think Vipera Magnifica does indeed look pretty bad though from how yesterday went down with the flipflopping on herbe

@Mist1422 what do you mean by flipflopping on Herbe?

mewtini, are you still around - is there any read in particular that you'd like me to look at or shore up? Otherwise I'll just try to power through some more ISOs of people who aren't clear.

 

[Keldeo]

@Mist1422 what do you mean by flipflopping on Herbe?

or like what specifically you're thinking about / can you expand a bit more on what you meant here and what you're thinking about now given VM's counterclaim of Ultracool?

 

[mewtini]

No one answered my open question :(

haha oops. i have no clue honestly. given that the tides flipped right at the end i assume they'd be pretty split, yeah? some bussing him, and in the world where we assume herbe is town, some trying to give enough weight to the town PR wagon

mewtini, are you still around - is there any read in particular that you'd like me to look at or shore up? Otherwise I'll just try to power through some more ISOs of people who aren't clear.

kokorico/m+7, maybe? i looked through both, mostly the latter, but wouldn't mind a keldeopinion

 

[Trebek]

No one answered my open question :(

honestly, i wonder if mafia decided to vote half and half between the two trains? if they saw the writing on the wall, then maybe they decided that if they split between the two, then no matter what train we thought they were on we wouldnt be able to figure everything out? this is just sorta rambly/stream of consciousness and would also imply that the mafia voting UC werent on at the end of EoD, since the vote tipped over by only 1 and any maf could have swung that back around

or both trains were w/w and i just suck

 

[mewtini]

lol ryan and i fucking mindmelded

 

[mewtini]

oh actually i read past 'half and half' and we didn't totally but i'll take it

 

[Trebek]

lol ryan and i fucking mindmelded

hehe

 

[Trebek]

oh actually i read past 'half and half' and we didn't totally but i'll take it

yeah, i think i was considering a more premeditated split, but its also totally possible that it was just "EoD crazy many things happening"

 

[mewtini]

oh actually i read past 'half and half' and we didn't totally but i'll take it

wait, nvm. i misread. yes i agree tbh.

 

[Trebek]

reading hard :(

 

[Keldeo]

So MP7 is interesting because like I said, I guess I was... expecting more from him? I was giving him some space early on because I know he's legitimately pretty busy so I don't really want to hold that against him.

Their ISO is mostly real-timing/questions, and I feel like I don't gain a lot from that especially because most of their questions are somewhat objective information-seeking that could come from either alignment. I have a hard time seeing how exactly they're synthesizing the answers to their other questions in arriving at reads because they haven't posted most of their reads.

EOD1 they swapped between Stryke and myuma a bunch, which I read in the moment as an indecisive town trying to do the right thing with incomplete info, but could probably also be compatible with mafia who didn't actually care who got yeeted there.

I think their approach to EOD2 yields the most for analysis right now. They essentially townread Ultracool for sincerity in one post d1 and then maintained that as a light townread/towny vibes into d2, so their switch onto Ultracool after ISOing Herbe looks pretty good for them given that, tbh. However, their EOD2 post on Herbe was pretty waffly, a good amount of "I guess this could be mafia or town," not super deep analysis - I could see that as possibly setting up a late-EOD swap back onto Herbe or something. They didn't actually do that after Ultracool claimed, though (the last quote here is at :01, which looks decent.) Any other thoughts on this would be appreciated.

Spoiler: some Ultracool/Herbe posts

I'm really, really sorry for not posting, like, at all, but I just genuinely can't manage to read anything of relevance out of toDay. The only things I found even slightly suspicious were the WIFOM-Macavity Claim and kyeugh imploring the Mafia to read more into the kill flavor, since they are pretty much the only ones who would know exactly why and how someone was killed :/

This naturally reads sincere to me.

Herbe ISO

It is occasionally a bit difficult to sift through the shitposting and manner of speaking to find the real content here, but I think I see enough to give pause for the current wagon.

A general beef I have with Herbe's posting is that the game-related content to non-game-related content ratio is really bad... could indicate that Herbe is having trouble manufacturing reads.

Spoiler

i have the strongest feeling that im gonna get mislynched like D2 lmao
my past sins haunt me

This feels a bit overly self-aware but in a concerned way. It's a slight read, but I give more townie points than not to this. Some scum players *think* to post stuff like this, others don't, and I'm making a determination that this is more likely due to a genuine concern than not.

Spoiler

if it's time to start airing reads, copcover mewtini is acting cool and townie (or 3p shrugtownie like last game lmao)
very interested in bluwiikoon!!! would love to hear more from him, but the vibes are good there

not much else stands out to me right now

This is the first real reads post from what I could tell... it could go either way, but "not much else stands out to me right now" the sentiment combined with the diction feels a bit open. Most of Herbe's posts fall into this category from what I can tell, and it is difficult to make a true read. However...

Spoiler

Ughhhhhhhhhhhhh I'm so frustrated with myself. I failed to consider that if I played to my usual towngame early on in TVT, that immediately after my reputation would be tarnished when I'm actually town. Of course, "usual" is a stretch here, cause I haven't played forum mafia in forever, but I was legitimately trying to be town early on. I literally psyched myself out of knowing what happened to Jack d1 (I killed him) and I was like omg this flavor IS so weird!! I wonder what the hell happened??? Who killed jack????? like, in my head. not even performatively. kyeugh, you can vouch, in scumchat when i was losing my mind and mf was like "go to sleep herbe."

I also make this point because I have to pay attention to the fact that kyeugh and i are not a scumteam anymore and she's not distancing me, she's literally just reading me. And I know that I probably shouldn't be so meta cause that's not gonna wiggle me out of any scumreads but I'm not gonna censor my stream of consiousness for the sake of reads.

Re: keldeo

random question, do you think you like being mafia or town better?

Ask me again at the end of this game, cause I haven't played a game to its finish as town in recent memory. Right now I'm inclined to say mafia. It comes so much easier to me,,,,, also I miss having partners. I miss mawile!!!!! OOT communication is my favorite and I miss being able to bounce ideas off of other players. If anyone wants to loverize me (for real this time) please do!

Anyway I just re-caught up with the thread (and woke up for the day) so yeah. this post is long enough

I'm not too sure, but if I had to guess I don't think this post comes from scum as often as it does from town. It's too stream-of-consciousness, for one, from my perception of the way Herbe plays and in general... I don't think scum!Herbe thinks to make a post this long-winded because they may be concerned they're overdoing it. What really stands out to me though is the underlined sentence, that seems like a genuine thought. With that said, I suppose scum!Herbe could playing that up for lack of being able to force genuine reads and such, so it's not definitive or anything.

That's all behavioral, which is more my forte to say the least. As for the claim... I could see it being fake given what already is purported to be claimed by Emmy being cop. I don't know that town cop + town role cop seems balanced.

Personally though, I think I see enough potential for townieness here that I'd rather go for Ultracool than Herbe, so...

vote Ultracool

I am likewise confused, please clarify UC?

Otherwise I'll stay with UC as my vote.

Spoiler: silly read

Also, your specific version of your avatar here is awesome, Keldeo. Probably my favorite from what I've seen. It's extra mystic or something.

[man and butterfly meme] is this a pocket attempt?

tl;dr... the switch onto Ultracool is probably the towniest thing here, it reads more like "ehh Herbe is townier" than "Ultracool is mafia", which would garner less cred if it were a bus. But body of work is lacking - they have a kind of bare ISO, and I haven't been able to get into their head and see them process/solve for the most part. That's somewhat problematic to me because I'm pretty sure if they make their process transparent and I can really dig in then they're town.

I'm interested in this Blu ISO that they're apparently doing, and reads in general, but I guess they're probably no longer here, which. Hm. I guess we still have tomorrow?

 

[Keldeo]

I really feel like I should have a better idea about MP7 based on all that but I kind of don't. I dunno, maybe that in itself should be a signal that something's up? Or am I just not weighing their vote enough?


Don't have time to do a full kokorico ISO so I just searched for Ultracool mentions, I may look more at em in the morning but I think e's low on my priority list right now just based on that. These aren't out of the realm of bussing, but I think e looks fairly good from these where e tries to put suspicion onto Ultracool on d1 and d2:

Spoiler

I guess I could get behind Ultracool - clearly keeping up with the reacts, but hasn't said much at all.

at the moment I think the best option is one of the relatively inactives/lurkers, like ultracool or maybe M+7?

I thiiink e was the first person to call out the Herbe wagon being enormously lopsided / proposing v/v, which e probably didn't need to do if e was mafia with Mr. Ultracool. I am wondering, though, @kokorico during last EOD did it occur to you to try to push forward a third wagon, if you thought neither was a great option? Who would you have pushed if viability was not a consideration?

what i’m asking myself about herbe rn is: if we think that we can get more information about his alignment in the future (be it through a cop check or just herbe posting more), which is more detrimental to town? killing off a v!rolecop, or letting a w!rolecop get another check off?

ooh this is a good point

probably the former tbqh

......swapping so close to eod probably doesn't look great for me, huh, but fine, Ultracool

(I still think Ultracool is less likely to be mafia but the town utility argument is a strong one)

Also, this post is kind of weird to make as Ultracool's mafia partner imo. Like, if this is a bus, all the credit for eir vote goes to Trebek, while e also doesn't even get credit anyway because e's still pushing Ultracool as less likely to be mafia, and again this is more "not a vote for Herbe" than "a vote for Ultracool". Does that make sense?

 

[Keldeo]

Also eir paranoia about weirdness with mewtini and rari feels like TMI-less paranoia in the (insert poptepic "aah, so it's like that" reaction image) way given that mewtini is cop cleared and apparently 100% trusts rari.

Had some thoughts about Blu, but now I kind of want to hold them back until after MP7 posts their ISO.

Trebek is town for now for me based on that last-minute vote switch. I'm... wary that I did a pretty similar thing in my first wolfgame that had people clearing me until LYLO, so I guess I just think we should keep in mind that he shouldn't be mindlessly cleared.

I'm willing to accept RNP's claim at face value, but I don't think jailer is necessarily a town role given what we've seen so far this setup and some ideas I have about how Jack designs things. I can expand on these reasons later.

The combined weight of things in favor of VM/Tofu (both of them clearing each other, VM counterclaiming Ultracool) feels like... maybe flighty compared to other things? That's definitely not the right word, someone ask me to explain this later if that doesn't make sense, which it probably doesn't. I remember VM being very willing to switch onto Ultracool after his kyeugh push, though, so I'll ISO both for interactions later.

Gotta reread Superjolt from d1 and Mist's earlier posting, and of course they voted Ultracool over Herbe, but Mist's analysis of the wagons today felt kind of shallow/procedural to me. I think if they're mafia the conclusions they drew make it very plausible that exactly MP is their partner, and they both bussed Ultracool to pick up credit from a flagging thread position.

I think that's everyone outside the consensus core? I definitely do not have enough mafia, but I don't really know who I'm misclearing in a ingroup Ultracool world, hm.

Feedback/discussion of any of these reads would be appreciated.

Vote M Plus 7 for now. Come do stuff!

 

[Tofu]

I don't like posting unless I have a legit observation to post but I just felt the need to say that, based on the new discussions since I was here earlier today, it's just... Very likely there are multiple scum in people's cleared lists. The numbers don't add up based on what I know.

VM and tofu COULD both be wolves actually, since Tofu was given VM's role in code and didn't try to lynch him either. Or they're both green and Trebek played us all

(what did Trebek do re vm/my roles? I missed something?)

As for the me/vm thing with one of us being mafia, just... lol. I understand questioning of our roles based on the fact that there must be something off in some of the lists, but it's pointing in the wrong direction.

Blu, why in the heck would either of us give each other our (correct) roles if one of us were mafia? We would already know each other were mafia if we were both in-group (barring a third party role). I know I can't really prove this but it'd be extremely difficult for one of the two of us to lie about being town to the other (and, seriously, well played if this is the case, but there is Evidence I don't want to reveal because I don't want anyone to know either of our roles.).

Also, @Bluwiikoon , I'd like to know why you wanted the mafia to think emmy was an alien to cover up the cop role, only to reveal it the next day, when the mafia would see that and surely be trying to kill her next chance they get? And would likely keep trying? I find this solution short-sighted and wonder what you thought would happen next/long-term with this.

I had initially been kind of clear on Skylar but now I'm wondering why again she's pushing for people to read vm as the vig. Why would town want to expose the vig role? I feel like we already have enough of an obligation now that our (theoretical) cop has been outed and feel like we need to protect emmy. So... Why would we want mafia to know about two more "important" roles? I don't like.

This space reserved for me grumping about the unproductiveness of "science" voting.

fishing brothers is traditionally town in old tcodf meta

btw, i might have just missed this, but did we actually confirm a bfree clear? or are we just going off the assumption that both fishing buds are town? which i am totally cool with, but want to make sure

I would be shocked if the fishing buds role was scum personally.

ill take it from the two of you, sounds good enough for me!

There are these twin calico cats who drug everyone in the movie (forgot their names, went back and found my post 1347 where I mentioned this):

I kind of wonder if any "twin" cats (Mungojerrie/Rumpleteazer or Plato and Socrates but the latter look like really minor characters I only found when I googled who the twin cats were) are inflating the mafia-aligned numbers (just by one I guess, but still) but if they are going to be like classic a twin/lovers role they'd both just die if one of them did. In the movie the calico ones (don't make me type Mungjeraoeunth/Ruda,.ic,au) were Macavity aligned for part of it so it's possible

A scum-aligned (or 3p what?) fishing brothers wouldn't be totally out of the picture based on the Cats lore imo, but I'm not sure how much I believe it yet because I like Butterfree's thoughts. But I'm keeping it in mind. Those two characters are burglar cats who later feel bad about drugging everyone at the end so they could maybe go either way... Or 3p, which would be weird and I'm not sure how that role would really work.

I need to go back and ISO people who I don't have opinions on (M+7, Trebek, Keldeo, Kokorico) before I contribute more.

canyoureallytrustanyone.jpg