Cats (2019) Mafia

[rari_teh]

fuck my life. unvote

 

[kyeugh]

Hey devil's advocate, why would RNP claim to have jailed Emmy if the conclusion is that this situation is more likely if he's mafia? Like Emmy isn't gonna get suspected, so just for kicks, or so that someone would make this argument, or because the plan around mewtini's heal was still opaque?

maybe he thought the thing about "i blocked her and there was no kill" would work?

i think if he's scum then maybe this entire thing isn't cohesively orchestrated but rather a series of decisions that made sense to him at the time: claiming his role and being honest about his targets so he could get information out and be townread for it; suggesting that emmy is mafia because he blocked her and there was no kill and the connection is an understandable one to make at surface level; pretending to be disengaged with the game to remove liability from himself for his reads/decisions etc.

 

[Keldeo]

Mm, okay, that makes sense, Skylar. I do think he's telling the truth about being disengaged from the thread regardless of his alignment, but I get that that doesn't really influence the main point you're making.

fuck my life. unvote

Hmm?

Can you explain what you mean when you say Tofu's vote could be bussing/distancing? Like technically any vote on mafia could be that way, is there like, something specific that makes you think that?

Also, sorry if you mentioned it somewhere, but can you just clarify for me what your current read on RNP is?

 

[Keldeo]

i have some feelings on this but need to substantiate them a bit (have been playing very lazily since midyesterday) but fwiw i think at least one of the wolves is going to be like. 'findable' or conspicuous looking ... i'm probably getting sucked into confbiasing everyone/getting triggerhappy i think but i think falling into the "they seem towny" trap works for like everyone in my PoE/nonclear pile right now haha. does that make sense?

Sorry, I'm kind of not understanding what you're getting at here? Can you rephrase or something?

Gonna talk about Herbe and then do some more ISOs/interaction searching for a bit here. I feel somewhat better about Ultracool being in-group because of the small setup read, I think.

 

[mewtini]

when half of the roster is mechcleared, we have to heavily reassess those clears and/or look really carefully at those who aren't. for part (a), i'm a little afraid that i'm giving herbe too much of a pass (though i don't really regret it at EoD considering we still hit scum). for part (b) i was saying that i'm admittedly confbiasing myself into finding suspicious things in latter group's posting, but within that frame of reference i am growing less sympathetic to the "newbie mafia wouldn't put themselves out there" train of thought, which is still what i think the pro-tofu defenses have mostly amounted to unless i'm missing something

 

[mewtini]

not to say that that isn't a valid archetype, i just don't think it holds so much that tofu is significantly less worth looking into than others in the PoE

 

[mewtini]

also part (a) depends a lot on me grasping the numerous worlds we talked about and i've been phoning it in all day so i need to read back and think harder there

 

[Keldeo]

Okay, thanks, I understand better. I'm going to take more of a look at Tofu for sure then, but I just keep coming back to the fact that VM on day 2 or whatever was like, the strongest thing he believes in is that Tofu is town? I don't know. I know it's kind of bad to make a read based on a read based on out-of-game stuff.

 

[rari_teh]

fuck my life. unvote

Hmm?

I am getting more convinced that my theory is correct. If it is, there’s little to no way that you’re mafia. Still won’t air it until toMorrow if the happenings keep corroborating the tinfoil, though

Can you explain what you mean when you say Tofu's vote could be bussing/distancing? Like technically any vote on mafia could be that way, is there like, something specific that makes you think that?

there is something specific, but it is intrinsically connected to my major theory and i’d rather not say it for the moment, sorry
also the fact that my tinfoil is going to become either very likely to be true or completely impossible depending on this Night’s flips and happenings is what keeps me from starting a Tofu wagon tbh

Also, sorry if you mentioned it somewhere, but can you just clarify for me what your current read on RNP is?

for me he’s likely telling the truth tbh

 

[Keldeo]

Is there a reason that you don't want to just make your tinfoil/theory public now so that we can discuss it with all the available information? I don't really know how to evaluate this.

 

[Novae]

did herbe claim a result from last night?

I don't remember

 

[mewtini]

did herbe claim a result from last night?

I don't remember

claimed he investigated ILS, who died; ILS was one of the town PRs. didn't reveal it for fear of narrowing down possibilities for mafia

 

[Keldeo]

spicy shit going down rn tbh,, this is some wild shit

ILS was underappreciated in his time tbh.

 

[mewtini]

@I liek Squirtles i'm sorry you died. ily king

 

[Tangrowth]

Hey everyone! Phew. Actually have some time now. I'm almost done with my Blu ISO from yesterday, so I hope to post that momentarily.

 

[rari_teh]

Is there a reason that you don't want to just make your tinfoil/theory public now so that we can discuss it with all the available information? I don't really know how to evaluate this.

yes, there is. i ask you to bear with me for a Day, because at this moment there’s a good chance i’m very wrong. but depending on how things go (specially how rnp flips), i’m probably very right
i’d also like to not discuss this any further for the Day because i feel like it’s unnecessarily diverting town’s attention too much tbh

 

[mewtini]

interesting?

i think i'm mostly waiting on the town!herbe case atm

 

[Tangrowth]

ISO of Blu

In doing this ISO I was specifically trying to make an alignment read but also look for potential w/w, v/w, or v/v interactions, but with a heavy emphasis on w/w or w/v. Any input would be incredibly appreciated.

Spoiler

Actual discussion thoughts tho:

If it wasn't just a random kill, is it worth assuming Mawile was chosen as the mafia's target due to his good plays in TVTropes Mafia? Whilst also leaving other experienced players alone so as to frame them as scumreads due to said experience

I'm not sure what to make of this, but after reviewing Blu's ISO in full, a substantial amount of posts and/or reads are made in this fashion, like... suggesting shade without committing to it? I lean towards it being wolfier than not.

Spoiler

:D myuma is another animal crossing cat bro!! The squad assembles

In response to Keldeo asking about thoughts, here's what I've got!

-Keldeo is my hypocop clear of course.

-I feel good about mewtini because she is very solvy rn and trying to puzzle things out with us. Still needs pats tho ;o; Nooo self-depreciation!! You did great last game imo! Pwease no feel bad

-I have some suspicions about Seshas for some reason Could just be unfounded based on my earlier WIFOM tinhatting however! As far as I can recall, they didn't actually respond to my tinhatting (not that WMG deserves much of a response)

-kokorico's put some good thoughts out there in eir analysis post! Even if I'm wary of Seshas compared to kokorico, I respect eir thoughts on the matter. ^^ Agree about the Emmy thing

-kyeugh/qva feels alright to me so far. No super strong feelings but we'll see!

-Herbe is of course my AC bro >:o Tangyyy!! I wanna trust Herbe LOL

-myuma trying their best with the limited clues we have, which seems towny. :D Not sure how I feel about putting weight into online status but the effort feels towny. Also AC bro!

-IndigoEmmy feels different as I've mentioned, but again, could just be getting used to more mafia games. She hasn't really tried to contribute to any Vibe Discussions or speculation as of yet if that's worth noting.

Now I know this is an early-game reads list, so I don't expect this to be airtight, but there are a couple of minor observations I want to make. First, it feels sort of... player salad-y to me, like some of these reads are vague enough that I cannot obtain an interpretation of anything alignment-indicative, and the player is mentioned for no apparent reason (like a null read)? Second, some of the wording reads rather stilted or using vocabulary that I think purposefully sidesteps giving an alignment read. And lastly, I'm getting slight w/w potential for Blu/Keldeo here given the way Blu addresses it in an awkward way.

Spoiler

What vibes do you have right now? Apologies if you've spoken to this already, I still haven't read most of the thread, lol.

No worries! ^^ I feel pretty good about kyeugh and mewtini, and I really townlean mewtini especially. Keldeo is my cop cover but I also like how he incites discussions. Pretty good feelings about you too based on tone, and Superjolt ^^

The Great Trebek Push made me about rari, purely based on the fact that I hadn't noticed much activity from them and then the Push resulted in a lot of activity from them in a short space of time. Other than that, not sure to make of RNP and Stryke :-( RNP is allegedly Always Like That, but it seems like they're a bit unhappy about any kind of voting on D1, particularly against Stryke. Meanwhile, Stryke's reaction to their wagon is equivalent to a (shrug)

Also not sure what to think of VM due to tone atm, or any people that haven't really posted much. But hey, probably more mech stuff on d2!

Awesome, this is definitely helpful, thanks. Can you expand on the rari thoughts there? Like, how would you think that impacts your read of their alignment at all?

Sure thing! I feel like it's probably not necessarily indicative of anything right now, but I'd probably just want to keep an eye on other posts they make going forward. Others generally seem to feel ok about rari, so I don't really want to scumread them yet unless they make any other strange-feeling plays. Additionally, mewtini said that her and rari acted pretty similarly during the Trebek Incident, but I kinda skimmed mewtini's posts throughout that section due to having such a big townlean on her already ^^

Okay, cool, this works. Thanks much!

How are you feeling about the gamestate and your vote now then? Looks like we're 1 hour out. Are there players you want me to look at with urgency? I'm still making my way through mewtini's reads list and sort of digging back for various context, but I love taking requests anyway.

Butterfree's thoughts on Herbe made me question Herbe's posting a bit, but other than that, I kinda feel like everyone else has pretty much every speculation point covered. IndigoEmmy still feels a bit different to me, but she still does the same thing of following along with everyone else's wagons and not inputting too much else otherwise, which is similar to her in tvt (where she was town).

Gonna have to look at vote tallies for now to decide Not sure how much wagons can surge with 25 minutes left

I'm struggling a bit to see the progression from the last reads list to some of the reads given here, and I'm torn about it. The bit about RNP reads potentially w/w or w/v.

Spoiler

I think after reading everyone's points I have stronger feelings about lynching myuma than Stryke, so I'll just park a vote there for now unless anything else comes to light. Sorry myuma, it's gotta be someone ;o;

This seems uhhhhh

Kind of... interesting? That the deaths are some of the main suspects we had That's scary!

Spoiler

Very strange for the mafia to eliminate one of our main suspects... the vig I can understand, however!

These two posts in succession stood out as a bit stilted.

Spoiler

Just skimming back rn

Personally I'm not suuuper buying the 'Mr Ultracool is mafia because Seshas is dead' thing because it sticks out like a sore thumb to me. Similarly I'm not super buying VM's skylar theory but I'd still like to explore this a little bit for Science.

i think if the mr ultracool wagon turned into a myuma one and we were between stryke/myuma that would feel ideal

I was looking through skylar's post history and I'm curious about this, since it would kind of feed into both theories.

@I liek Squirtles Hi buddy! ^^ Haven't seen you in thread for a little while, it's great to hear from you! Just wondering, what in particular made you feel strongly inclined to post your thoughts about the Ultracool and kyeugh theories?

The fact that Blu asked ILS about this without directly offering any input on the theories at face value is questionable, but it also reads like a question one would ask a partner... if I didn't already know ILS flipped town. So otherwise it's just strange.

Spoiler

I am gonna quickly eat something and then I’ll be back.

@Bluwiikoon if you had to choose between the two main wagons (Ultracool and Herbe) (with a third option of starting a new wagon) what would you pick?

I think Herbe for now. In day one they kept mentioning how towny they are and uhhhh honestly? I feel like a rolecop is kind of a huge risk for any town power roles, especially considering y'all are saying rolecop is usually a mafia role >:o Unless we get a specific cat claim from Herbe that people knowledgeable in The Lore can explain as being rolecop AND town, I'm ok putting my vote there. Sorry tangy bro ;o;

Tfw I realise my grocery delivery arrives anywhere in the next two hours Sorry if I get sparse, I'll try my best!

Spoiler

I can't speak for anyone else but I just trust butterfree's judgement on the Herbe matter tbh

What do you mean by this?

Butterfree was the first one I can recall having suspicions about Herbe based on D1 "haha, it's so different playing as town!" esque posts Herbe made. It really made me reconsider my Herbe feelings because up until then I felt they were legit towny, and the rolecop stuff also seems suspect imo.

I personally don't think from a wagon perspective that Herbe/UC was w/w, so this is in retrospect a problematic vote post.

Spoiler

Will explain alien stuff tomorrow if I live. Peace!

The "if I live" bit reads very awkwardly tacked on, especially considering the circumstances of claims.

Spoiler

I'm honestly feeling more and more about Keldeo. His playstyle being the same in most circumstances would definitely do a really good job of masking himself if he is mafia. There was some weird posts from him around EOD yesterDay too, right?

It is so hard to form thoughts on other people that don't say too much Other than that, I have some minor feelings about kyeugh. Not because of emmy's failed check (although, she did "ask" the cop to inspect kyeugh at some point I believe) but just more and more Strange Things building up. May be WIFOM but I don't always buy that the jokes are complete jokes LOL

This also reads vaguely like Keldeo could be a Blu wolfmate.

Spoiler

Herbe cleared Butterfree as a fishing brother, and Herbe also claimed to have inspected mewtini n0, and yet mewtini was not shanked already despite apparently having a role that the mafia would not enjoy. ^^

Cool, thank you. Who are your main suspicions within the bottom pile? Is there anyone besides me that you think we should be looking at?

So if three of the remaining people are town or 3p, then, uhhhh (checks writing on hand)

Keldeo - Sorry to suspect you bro but I'd probably mark you as red
kokorico - Idk sorry
Trebek - We had some good feelings about them during the Trebekkening! Which, of course, was spearheaded by Keldeo...
M Plus 7 - Idk tbh
Tofu - VM was like at her role, and yet didn't move to lynch her. I'd assume 3p unless they're in it together
Bluwiikoon - I'm town, of course.
Vipera Magnifica - Just vibes tbh, and if we accept kyeugh as innocent then the statistics REALLY looks bad
Mist1422 - Idk

I'm... not sure what to make of these reads.

Spoiler

Jailer would make a pretty convincing cover for a mafia roleblocker, huh? I see where all you guys are coming from

And if I revisit my Spicy Roster List, marking RNP as red allows someone else whom is Unconfirmed to be green (like a greenlist of Me, VM and Tofu, and possibly Trebek or koko). I think I like that a bit more, especially since either VM or Tofu are confirmed vig now? It also doesn't do us any favours for the cop to get roleblocked out of some weird memey grudge.

RedneckPhoenix

This smells like a potential bus.

--------------------------------------------------------------

Conclusion: There's a ratio of game-related content to non-game-related content especially early that is a bit less than desirable. Many scattered awkward moments, including reads that aren't really reads? Potential w/w equity with Keldeo and RNP that I think is at least notable.

I strongly think Blu should be in the POE.

My plan is to look into RNP next given the wagon formation and the way I interpreted that Blu vote, but I'll also take other suggestions.

 

[Novae]

did herbe claim a result from last night?

I don't remember

claimed he investigated ILS, who died; ILS was one of the town PRs. didn't reveal it for fear of narrowing down possibilities for mafia

hmm

maybe he should say what subalignment (investigative, protective, killing, blocking, other)

 

[mewtini]

maybe he should say what subalignment (investigative, protective, killing, blocking, other)

er ... does this help the issue tbh?