Cats (2019) Mafia

[rari_teh]

tl;dr: role distribution doesn't make sense if both RNP and Herbe are telling the truth, and imo wolf!Herbe is more likely than wolf!RNP

i have a conjecture that would allow both rnp and herbe to be town, but it is a bit farfetched tbh

Spoiler: confbiasy theory

maybe town!herbe is so convinced that town!RNP is mafia that he decided to gamble on whatever towncred he has by affirming that ils was doctor when in fact he was not

 

[Tangrowth]

These two read like potential TMI to me.

I don’t see it

I made a post some time ago that tentatively explains in less knotty terms what rnp is saying, i’ll see if i can find it so that i can quote it to you

I definitely would love to hear that.

 

[rari_teh]

These two read like potential TMI to me.

I don’t see it

I made a post some time ago that tentatively explains in less knotty terms what rnp is saying, i’ll see if i can find it so that i can quote it to you

I definitely would love to hear that.

i quoted it and pinged you lol

 

[Tangrowth]

@M Plus 7:

if town, he genuinely believed in D2 that she could be either cop or mafia, so he jailed her so that she couldn’t kill or be killed. since there was no mafia kill last night, he deduced that she could be the don and voted for her

I think that's plausible, but Occam's Razor implies otherwise?

 

[kyeugh]

cant wait for AC mafia when i'm a roleblocker and get lynched by a kyeugh wagon again

you know i wasn't the first vote on you right? vm voted for you and several others (including me) voted for you pretty quickly after that. we've gotten here because many people had a discussion about the events of last night, together. i get that you're frustrated but your tone is kind of irking me here, i don't really like being treated like i'm some kind of dick that's just serially dunking on for no reason other than to be cruel. i am not singlehandedly pushing you into your grave here.

maybe town!herbe is so convinced that town!RNP is mafia that he decided to gamble on whatever towncred he has by affirming that ils was doctor when in fact he was not

very doubtful, herbe is not all that convinced rnp is scum at all afaict

 

[Tangrowth]

That updated vote tally is a godsend.

I need to go back and see why koko is voting Herbe, I don't recall that.

tl;dr: role distribution doesn't make sense if both RNP and Herbe are telling the truth, and imo wolf!Herbe is more likely than wolf!RNP

evidently I'm not going to convince the rest of town, but everyone seems to agree that if RNP flips green tonight Herbe ought to be the next lynch or vigkill, so I'm cool with that ig

Your perspective is valuable nonetheless. I'll see what I think of it.

 

[rari_teh]

@M Plus 7:

if town, he genuinely believed in D2 that she could be either cop or mafia, so he jailed her so that she couldn’t kill or be killed. since there was no mafia kill last night, he deduced that she could be the don and voted for her

I think that's plausible, but Occam's Razor implies otherwise?

dude, no offense to rnp but, this is rnp
there is no occam’s razor

 

[Tangrowth]

These two read like potential TMI to me.

I don’t see it

I made a post some time ago that tentatively explains in less knotty terms what rnp is saying, i’ll see if i can find it so that i can quote it to you

I definitely would love to hear that.

i quoted it and pinged you lol

Haha, yeah, I got it, my bad -- also trying to read back at the same time.

What did you think of the TMI though? I couldn't get anything else with respect to behavior there, but that reads very much to me like RNP knows Seshas is town. Do you have a different interpretation?

 

[Tofu]

I am at work and will be until the end of the day so not sure I'll be able to like, stay updated on what is happening.

I'm not sure whether I want to withdraw my rnp vote or not but I'll try to pop in at some point and decide. idk what to think anymore and I don't find anyone else's posts particularly illuminating to me.

 

[Tangrowth]

@M Plus 7:

if town, he genuinely believed in D2 that she could be either cop or mafia, so he jailed her so that she couldn’t kill or be killed. since there was no mafia kill last night, he deduced that she could be the don and voted for her

I think that's plausible, but Occam's Razor implies otherwise?

dude, no offense to rnp but, this is rnp
there is no occam’s razor

Haha, I can see why you'd say that. I'll consider it.

 

[rari_teh]

very doubtful, herbe is not all that convinced rnp is scum at all afaict

eh, you’re right, forgot about that

What did you think of the TMI though? I couldn't get anything else with respect to behavior there, but that reads very much to me like RNP knows Seshas is town. Do you have a different interpretation?

the same interpretation as i had D1 tbh
that people were voting seshas based solely on vague gut feels that don’t really say anything and rnp got annoyed by it

 

[kyeugh]

What did you think of the TMI though? I couldn't get anything else with respect to behavior there, but that reads very much to me like RNP knows Seshas is town. Do you have a different interpretation?

i know you're not asking me but i didn't really read it this way personally. i think if he flips red then we can look back on it and i guess say that's what it was, but it seemed kind of innocuous to me, just a strong reaction to the concept of a poorly-substantiated (i.e. virtually random) wagon rather than to the person it happened to be on

 

[Tangrowth]

very doubtful, herbe is not all that convinced rnp is scum at all afaict

eh, you’re right, forgot about that

What did you think of the TMI though? I couldn't get anything else with respect to behavior there, but that reads very much to me like RNP knows Seshas is town. Do you have a different interpretation?

the same interpretation as i had D1 tbh
that people were voting seshas based solely on vague gut feels that don’t really say anything and rnp got annoyed by it

Right, but wouldn't a consideration of the gamestate preclude such a reaction? If that makes sense.

 

[rari_teh]

very doubtful, herbe is not all that convinced rnp is scum at all afaict

eh, you’re right, forgot about that

What did you think of the TMI though? I couldn't get anything else with respect to behavior there, but that reads very much to me like RNP knows Seshas is town. Do you have a different interpretation?

the same interpretation as i had D1 tbh
that people were voting seshas based solely on vague gut feels that don’t really say anything and rnp got annoyed by it

Right, but wouldn't a consideration of the gamestate preclude such a reaction? If that makes sense.

if rnp was being that solvy i would be scumreading him right now

 

[Tangrowth]

What did you think of the TMI though? I couldn't get anything else with respect to behavior there, but that reads very much to me like RNP knows Seshas is town. Do you have a different interpretation?

i know you're not asking me but i didn't really read it this way personally. i think if he flips red then we can look back on it and i guess say that's what it was, but it seemed kind of innocuous to me, just a strong reaction to the concept of a poorly-substantiated (i.e. virtually random) wagon rather than to the person it happened to be on

Input appreciated always regardless of who I'm asking, so I'm glad you said so too!

Huh, maybe I feel differently about it because I wasn't involved in the heat of the moment, so to speak. I'll take what you're both saying into consideration for sure.

 

[Tangrowth]

very doubtful, herbe is not all that convinced rnp is scum at all afaict

eh, you’re right, forgot about that

What did you think of the TMI though? I couldn't get anything else with respect to behavior there, but that reads very much to me like RNP knows Seshas is town. Do you have a different interpretation?

the same interpretation as i had D1 tbh
that people were voting seshas based solely on vague gut feels that don’t really say anything and rnp got annoyed by it

Right, but wouldn't a consideration of the gamestate preclude such a reaction? If that makes sense.

if rnp was being that solvy i would be scumreading him right now

So you're saying he seems more villagery when wolf and vice versa? That's good to know.

 

[rari_teh]

very doubtful, herbe is not all that convinced rnp is scum at all afaict

eh, you’re right, forgot about that

What did you think of the TMI though? I couldn't get anything else with respect to behavior there, but that reads very much to me like RNP knows Seshas is town. Do you have a different interpretation?

the same interpretation as i had D1 tbh
that people were voting seshas based solely on vague gut feels that don’t really say anything and rnp got annoyed by it

Right, but wouldn't a consideration of the gamestate preclude such a reaction? If that makes sense.

if rnp was being that solvy i would be scumreading him right now

So you're saying he seems more villagery when wolf and vice versa? That's good to know.

precisely ~

 

[qenya]

So you're saying he seems more villagery when wolf and vice versa? That's good to know.

last game the town literally lynched him in preference to someone with a red copcheck

 

[Tangrowth]

Seems like a difficult player to read regardless. I've definitely played with players like this before, but it's always a Fun Time (because I'm a masochist who actually likes to try figuring all of this out behaviorally).

 

[Tofu]

I'm gonna unvote for now brb