Cats (2019) Mafia

[kyeugh]

What did you think of the TMI though? I couldn't get anything else with respect to behavior there, but that reads very much to me like RNP knows Seshas is town. Do you have a different interpretation?

i know you're not asking me but i didn't really read it this way personally. i think if he flips red then we can look back on it and i guess say that's what it was, but it seemed kind of innocuous to me, just a strong reaction to the concept of a poorly-substantiated (i.e. virtually random) wagon rather than to the person it happened to be on

Input appreciated always regardless of who I'm asking, so I'm glad you said so too!

Huh, maybe I feel differently about it because I wasn't involved in the heat of the moment, so to speak. I'll take what you're both saying into consideration for sure.

something important to consider i think is that for a long time, conventional tcod meta was basically to abstain d1 barring extenuating circumstances, so i think every game there's a bit of resistance to the idea of lynching d1 based on little gut feels or whatever.

 

[Tangrowth]

So you're saying he seems more villagery when wolf and vice versa? That's good to know.

last game the town literally lynched him in preference to someone with a red copcheck

LMAO, I'm assuming that's reductive, but even if so, that's something.

 

[Trebek]

just to make sure i’m not missing anything (trying to weigh pros and cons for each situation before i vote)

the consensus seems to be that rnp flipping green implies we should vigkill herbe, but do we have any consensus on what happens if rnp flips red? is w/w or w/v more likely between rnp and herbe

 

[Tangrowth]

What did you think of the TMI though? I couldn't get anything else with respect to behavior there, but that reads very much to me like RNP knows Seshas is town. Do you have a different interpretation?

i know you're not asking me but i didn't really read it this way personally. i think if he flips red then we can look back on it and i guess say that's what it was, but it seemed kind of innocuous to me, just a strong reaction to the concept of a poorly-substantiated (i.e. virtually random) wagon rather than to the person it happened to be on

Input appreciated always regardless of who I'm asking, so I'm glad you said so too!

Huh, maybe I feel differently about it because I wasn't involved in the heat of the moment, so to speak. I'll take what you're both saying into consideration for sure.

something important to consider i think is that for a long time, conventional tcod meta was basically to abstain d1 barring extenuating circumstances, so i think every game there's a bit of resistance to the idea of lynching d1 based on little gut feels or whatever.

Oh, yeah, that is a point for sure. Thank you. That's such a foreign concept to me now, haha.

 

[Tangrowth]

just to make sure i’m not missing anything (trying to weigh pros and cons for each situation before i vote)

the consensus seems to be that rnp flipping green implies we should vigkill herbe, but do we have any consensus on what happens if rnp flips red? is w/w or w/v more likely between rnp and herbe

Has anyone looked at that specifically? If not, I can do so quickly here.

 

[Trebek]

basically, i’m worried that me voting off of gut feels or personality analysis is going to go horribly wrong, so i want to try to make as unbiased of a priority queue as possible as far as who to vote for if that makes sense

 

[rari_teh]

So you're saying he seems more villagery when wolf and vice versa? That's good to know.

last game the town literally lynched him in preference to someone with a red copcheck

LMAO, I'm assuming that's reductive, but even if so, that's something.

believe me when i say that it’s not reductive at all :c

 

[Tangrowth]

So you're saying he seems more villagery when wolf and vice versa? That's good to know.

last game the town literally lynched him in preference to someone with a red copcheck

LMAO, I'm assuming that's reductive, but even if so, that's something.

believe me when i say that it’s not reductive at all :c

Sounds like an incredible story, haha.

 

[rari_teh]

just to make sure i’m not missing anything (trying to weigh pros and cons for each situation before i vote)

the consensus seems to be that rnp flipping green implies we should vigkill herbe, but do we have any consensus on what happens if rnp flips red? is w/w or w/v more likely between rnp and herbe

Has anyone looked at that specifically? If not, I can do so quickly here.

i would say w/v, though it’s better to ISO tbh

 

[mewtini]

the consensus seems to be that rnp flipping green implies we should vigkill herbe, but do we have any consensus on what happens if rnp flips red? is w/w or w/v more likely between rnp and herbe

i’m not caught up but i’ve been thinking that koko will probably not look great if that comes to pass

 

[rari_teh]

the consensus seems to be that rnp flipping green implies we should vigkill herbe, but do we have any consensus on what happens if rnp flips red? is w/w or w/v more likely between rnp and herbe

i’m not caught up but i’ve been thinking that koko will probably not look great if that comes to pass

this tbh
i am also probably not going to look great tbqh

 

[Tangrowth]

Spoiler

regarding the quantity of town doctors: I agree! doctor + jailkeeper + whatever mewtini is seems kind of ridiculous in what was originally a 14-person setup with 4 mafia (unless, and I know this is a stretch but I'm not quite ready to give it up yet, Jack didn't expect the jailkeeper and/or mewtini to want to operate every night).

(aside: considering that last game I apparently managed to successfully dupe everyone, including the rest of the mafia, into thinking I was one of no fewer than FIVE town doctors, I'm equal parts appreciative and exasperated that someone seems to be trying almost the exact same thing again)

but all this means is that one of {herbe, RNP, mewtini} is probably lying. mewt has a green copcheck that would require a series of highly implausible coincidences to explain away, and I've explained why I don't think it's RNP... which leaves herbe.

I was going to summarise the case against w!herbe here, but rari just handily did it for me, thank you rari:

as per herbe’s post history and [redacted] i am most inclined to believe that he is town

now, let's say for the sake of argument that he is indeed a rolecop, did check mewtini n0, and signalled it to her in a way that proved that's what happened. for the record I still don't like this "hey mewtini can just say people are town for Reasons and we all believe her! :D" thing, but I accept I'm in the minority there, and anyway the bit with herbe doesn't rely on that

consider:
- we clearly don't know everything the mafia do about their reasoning for targets (cf. Seshas)
- while mewt is being cagey about the exact details of her role (for good reason!) she's definitely not actually a full doctor or anything like that
- mewt, who is basically the town leader, has proceeded to put herbe in her towncore (going so far as to clear someone else based solely on his testimony) and everyone else is ~going with the flow~

so: why on earth are people taking it as virtually certain that w!Herbe would have killed mewtini above all else, when there's no guarantee she has a particularly strong role, and her survival has provided him with such an excellent return on investment so far? in fact I could see this being the mafia's plan from the very outset: their rolecop uses up a check to convince ultra-popular!mewtini that he's town, and then he's pretty much set for the rest of the game!

for this reason, I think herbe is the most sensible lynch at the moment and will require considerable convincing to change my mind.

tl;dr: my w!herbe theory that I earlier referred as "tinfoil" has been elevated to headcanon in light of new evidence.

(2/?)

I like the thinking here, even if I'm not sure how I feel about the likelihood of it. And fwiw, I've seen enough wolf jailkeepers or similar roles in my anecdotal experience, even if town it is the more natural utility -- but I also don't play full role madness often, so I'm not sure how valuable my perspective is there.

 

[Keldeo]

Okay I'm here until EOD! Need to read up more than the most recent few pages and then I'll get in real time

believe me when i say that it’s not reductive at all :c

smh smh "the town" did not kill him, there was one (1) town on his wagon

 

[mewtini]

won't be caught up for a bit, but rq -

in fact I could see this being the mafia's plan from the very outset: their rolecop uses up a check to convince ultra-popular!mewtini that he's town, and then he's pretty much set for the rest of the game!

does this ... make sense? the check on me was n0 haha, i was def not ultra-popular yet :p unless they just saw the mafia-vs-not-mafia roster and was like "it's her! she is Special" (thanks if that's the case guys)

smh smh "the town" did not kill him, there was one (1) town on his wagon

oh my god don't remind me

 

[rari_teh]

believe me when i say that it’s not reductive at all :c

smh smh "the town" did not kill him, there was one (1) town on his wagon

i did not remember that :c
tbh good for town

 

[Trebek]

so basically, this is what i’m thinking rn as far as Do I Vote RNP

if rnp flips red, then maybe koko looks bad? maybe rari? at the end of the day (heh) we’ve found a maf and we can figure out the rest later

if rnp flips green, then herbe likely gets vig killed or lynched. if herbe flips red then we end up with a 1 for 1 trade which is ok i guess? and if herbe is green then LolTown ™

i’m leaning more towards a rnp vote than away, but am going to hold off until i can further convince myself that a) rnp is def maf or b) v/v rnp/herbe is def not a possibility

 

[Tangrowth]

Okay I'm here until EOD! Need to read up more than the most recent few pages and then I'll get in real time

believe me when i say that it’s not reductive at all :c

smh smh "the town" did not kill him, there was one (1) town on his wagon

LOL.

 

[mewtini]

until i can further convince myself that a) rnp is def maf or b) v/v rnp/herbe is def not a possibility

when are you going to get either a or b tbh

 

[Tangrowth]

Also, hi Keldeo!

 

[mewtini]

until i can further convince myself that a) rnp is def maf or b) v/v rnp/herbe is def not a possibility

when are you going to get either a or b tbh

this isn't me pressuring, just, idk what could happen to make either conclusive before the flips