Cats (2019) Mafia

[Keldeo]

ilu all but I really can't be here until tomorrow night, sorry! >_>

@Eifie please check off the "Keldeo defends a wolf for like no reason seriously he really wasn't all that towny lol" square on your bingo card thanks

 

[qenya]

guys, hot take. what if the ultracool wagon got messed up because he's outgroup mafia lol.

gosh that certainly is a Theory

if he was outgroup then I can certainly empathise with the "aaaaa I have no idea what to do" that probably resulted in his lurking

if true, I suppose we should be suspicious of anyone who parked on him early and didn't switch to Herbe later? that's, um... Tofu? and also Herbe himself ig

 

[qenya]

if true, I suppose we should be suspicious of anyone who parked on him early and didn't switch to Herbe later? that's, um... Tofu? and also Herbe himself ig

Mist, M+7 and Trebek wouldn't look great either

in fact it would completely reverse all my original conclusions, ugh

extremely tinfoil: herbe is actually ingroup mafia. the mafia didn't try to push for a third wagon because they thought ultracool was town.
(this requires him to be intentionally pocketing mewt fsr, hence the "secret tell", but... I mean, don't we all secretly want to pocket mewt?)

 

[qenya]

regarding emmy's block, I don't think we can treat it as alignment-indicative on kyeugh as has been suggested

emmy didn't say anything in-thread about who she was going to target (hell, she was certain she was going to die), so no way the mafia could have known it would be kyeugh, whether to protect scum!kyeugh or to frame town!kyeugh

 

[Tofu]

guys, hot take. what if the ultracool wagon got messed up because he's outgroup mafia lol.

gosh that certainly is a Theory

if he was outgroup then I can certainly empathise with the "aaaaa I have no idea what to do" that probably resulted in his lurking

if true, I suppose we should be suspicious of anyone who parked on him early and didn't switch to Herbe later? that's, um... Tofu? and also Herbe himself ig

I voted for Ultracool early because he said some thing about "oh woops I didn't get notifications for these posts for the past day" or whatever and I thought it was lying because he had liked one of my posts during the timeframe he said he was not online. It was a hunch based on that seeming dishonest (and was ultimately right I guess). I kept my vote parked there because ultimately the other wagons confused me more than my initial hunch so I didn't change it. At the EOD I got really confused with all the rapid posting but by that time, I thought changing it would be a bad idea because I was more sure of my initial vote than I would feel of changing it at that point.

 

[Tofu]

My current suspicions have been parked on Blu, if only because of tone, idk... Another hunch that may or may not be correct but I'm going to comb through some more posts later.

 

[qenya]

that's fair, good logic on ultracool! I should say ftr that I don't especially doubt you, I'm just kinda riffing off "if this were true, what would it imply? would it contradict anything we know?"

bluwiikoon is an interesting read. butterfree said something similar earlier:

I feel bad suspecting Bluwii for following me in voting for Herbe, but he went from voting Emmy to Tofu to Herbe (all the counterwagons to Ultracool one after another), and justifying a vote for the town wagon over the mafia wagon on the basis that you're just following someone in towncore is pretty convenient, and it's true that making a big show of how you're trying to protect the doctor with this big flashy speculation gambit isn't necessarily actually towny. I'd have to have another look at his posts, buuuut it's a plausible lead.

I haven't really been looking at him tbh, pretty much just wrote him off as "seems towny" on d1 on the basis of his excitability and then forgot about him, oops

just glanced through his ISO, and this post is interesting, where he justifies his vote for herbe:

I can't speak for anyone else but I just trust butterfree's judgement on the Herbe matter tbh

What do you mean by this?

Butterfree was the first one I can recall having suspicions about Herbe based on D1 "haha, it's so different playing as town!" esque posts Herbe made. It really made me reconsider my Herbe feelings because up until then I felt they were legit towny, and the rolecop stuff also seems suspect imo.

if you think about it, it's... not actually a reason at all? it's like he decided he was going to vote for herbe, and then couched it in something that sounded vaguely logicky and herbe-related

especially: "rolecop stuff also seems suspect"? but butterfree backed up herbe's rolecop claim! if he trusts her, why doesn't he believe it?

this is all a bit sketchy and not sure I'd feel comfy voting for him based on it, but, uh.

 

[Bluwiikoon]

To clarify, what seemed suspect about the rolecop stuff is the fact that people were saying that it's normally a mafia-aligned role. That's all!

I'm happy to answer questions if anyone has 'em, just on general I'm having a hard time activating my brain. ^^; Additionally I stopped being as memey and exciteable because uhhhh people really didn't like having to catch up on pages of memery and I get really worried about being too annoying. I've been trying to rein myself in a bit!

 

[Bluwiikoon]

If I haven't been as active as I was on D1 that's also because real life is being a bit, uh, bad to me right now

Everything happens all at once!!

 

[Vipera Magnifica]

Just going to spew some thoughts

I like the idea that Ultracool being outgroup mafia could have been the reason the wagon stayed uncontested for so long. I had just thought it was the mafia being resigned to losing one of their own and bussing him for town cred but that theory makes slightly more sense.

Emmy being blocked could have been because the mafia expected her to inspect Herbe, but whether that was because Herbe is mafia and didn't want to be inspected, or the mafia wanted to paint suspicion on Herbe, I have no clue.. WIFOM.pdf

My brain made up this whole tinfoil theory reading the end of day about why VM didn't actually vote for Ultracool when he counterclaimed, where VM's mafia and pretended to counterclaim for town cred, but no, when I type that out it doesn't actually make any sense.

I am still really salty about EoD because like... Jack closed the votes within seconds of me realizing what had happened, which is where the

GOD DAMN IT

came from

I was RELIEVED when I saw that Ultracool still had the majority vote though

I feel bad suspecting Bluwii for following me in voting for Herbe, but he went from voting Emmy to Tofu to Herbe (all the counterwagons to Ultracool one after another), and justifying a vote for the town wagon over the mafia wagon on the basis that you're just following someone in towncore is pretty convenient, and it's true that making a big show of how you're trying to protect the doctor with this big flashy speculation gambit isn't necessarily actually towny. I'd have to have another look at his posts, buuuut it's a plausible lead.

I did find it a little odd how Blu parked on Herbe even though he was suspecting Emmy of being an alien... but their excuse of protecting the cop kinda makes sense? But also kinda doesn't... if people actually believed the alien story there's a chance Emmy would just get offed by the vig... and I found it a little weird he only said he'd explain the alien gambit after I pointed out the contradiction of Blue casting doubt on both cops. Maybe it was a town play, but it's not one I fully understand the thought process behind.

I'm feeling a little deflated because I thought I was going to come into this day phase knowing a lot more but now I feel like I know even less than I did before. I want whatever D2 VM was on. All my townreads have come into question and aside from mewtini being town, nothing seems certain. But even then I can't say for certain she's not lover-paired with a mafia. My outlook on this whole game has been

Spoiler

 

[kyeugh]

so are we pretty sure there is indeed an outgroup then
it would make sense given the whole six mafia thing, but. just to be sure. i'm uncertain whether the outgroup mafia spec is specifically in response to ultracool's wagon being so lopsided or if it's just something we've already been assuming

 

[Trebek]

Emmy being blocked could have been because the mafia expected her to inspect Herbe, but whether that was because Herbe is mafia and didn't want to be inspected, or the mafia wanted to paint suspicion on Herbe, I have no clue.. WIFOM.pdf

i don’t think we should try to think about if emmy’s rb is alignment indicative of herbe bc honestly if i’m a mafia role blocker N2 i’m blocking emmy no matter what bc cop scary

 

[Trebek]

from what i gathered the speculation came about specifically bc of how the voting went yesterDay, but i wouldn’t be surprised if some people were already suspecting that outgroup existed

 

[Tofu]

At some point earlier (probably shortly after vm posted about how many mafia-aligned players there should be) there was speculation about outgroup mafia because of the fact that 6 mafia-aligned players who could all communicate with each other seems like it'd be too overpowered

 

[mewtini]

it would make sense given the whole six mafia thing, but. just to be sure. i'm uncertain whether the outgroup mafia spec is specifically in response to ultracool's wagon being so lopsided or if it's just something we've already been assuming

VM mentioned it earlier because we were thinking 6 ingroup mafia would suck, so i figured that if there is outgroup mafia, it probably included ultracool

if [outgroup] true, I suppose we should be suspicious of anyone who parked on him early and didn't switch to Herbe later? that's, um... Tofu? and also Herbe himself ig

meh, i think at that point we'd be back to just thinking about v/v wagons and people possibly switching to feign ... emotion (similar to what made us think about ILS; i realize that he's town so that doesn't work 100% but whatever)

(this requires him to be intentionally pocketing mewt fsr, hence the "secret tell", but... I mean, don't we all secretly want to pocket mewt?)

lmfao. i want to believe he wouldn't go for that again. i'm unpocketable this game, baby!
but yeah ftr i do truly believe that the 'secret tell' is too significant of a thing to be skipped over. my other theory is that there's a mafia rolecop and they figured something out

also if keldeo is a wolf though then i think that makes ultracool ingroup. that or kel just figured it out, he's been talking about uc all game

 

[mewtini]

meh, i think at that point we'd be back to just thinking about v/v wagons and people possibly switching to feign ... emotion (similar to what made us think about ILS; i realize that he's town so that doesn't work 100% but whatever)

actually jk we already did this didn't we.,

Mist, M+7 and Trebek wouldn't look great either

why trebek tbh. he moved and with justification
mist and m+7 are in my suspectland so i'm vibing with that though

 

[mewtini]

I did find it a little odd how Blu parked on Herbe even though he was suspecting Emmy of being an alien... but their excuse of protecting the cop kinda makes sense?

But even then I can't say for certain she's not lover-paired with a mafia.

lol i am definitely not lover-paired, but i will continue pushing my Reasons(tm) defenses that i suspect are why you bring that possibility up

 

[mewtini]

ok i meant to ACTUALLY reply to first quote and say that in retrospect i find it pretty clear that he never actually suspected that :p

 

[mewtini]

if you think about it, it's... not actually a reason at all? it's like he decided he was going to vote for herbe, and then couched it in something that sounded vaguely logicky and herbe-related

tbh blu is on my list as "could be a wolf but i would be sad" so i don't want to like, kill spec here, but also i don't think it's as contentless as you say it is. herbe's "look at me i'm so town now" shenanigans is what made a lot of people feel weird early on, and the rolecop metagame stuff probably was legit confusing

 

[Bluwiikoon]

This is my first game since uhhhh 2008 so I'm like @___@ So many things! It's so much different playing than just being a spectator, haha!

I'm interested in what Keldeo has to say to defend himself, but if he's got Real Life happening then that kinda sucks. :-( I don't wanna be too hasty voting, but he makes sense as a person who could be mafia but could also hide it very well because of his playstyle.