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Cats (2019) Mafia

fwiw i really disagree with vm but i think he's been townier than not so far (tofu thing, stirring things up between this and the metatalk, bringing up game setup)? can other people give their thoughts on that

Butterfree said:
Can you clarify what you mean by "that only guarantees a townie rather than a mafia"? I don't think I follow.
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i think he was talking about case a) someone deflecting actions from a townie onto someone else versus case b) someone redirecting actions from someone (mafia) to someone else
 
Let's talk probability!

If kyeugh is town, and were to vote at random from the other players, the chance of hitting town would be 68.4%

13/19 = .684

If kyeugh were to pick another player, the chance of voting two town players in a row drops to 45.6%

(12/18)*(13/19) = .667

Now if kyeugh were to vote one more player, the chance of voting three town players in a row drops to 29.5%

(11/17)*(12/18)*(13/19) = .295

Sure, it's still quite possible that kyeugh just was unlucky. If this were to happen to anyone else I might overlook it, but kyeugh was the person who started two of those wagons. If I were to wager on anyone being mafia right now, I'd bet my money on kyeugh.
 
If more persuasive evidence arises, I'm willing to move to a different wagon, but for now I still suspect kyeugh.

If kyeugh is mafia, then I also believe that rari_teh is mafia.
 
Vipera Magnifica said:
Let's talk probability!

If kyeugh is town, and were to vote at random from the other players, the chance of hitting town would be 68.4%

13/19 = .684

If kyeugh were to pick another player, the chance of voting two town players in a row drops to 45.6%

(12/18)*(13/19) = .667

Now if kyeugh were to vote one more player, the chance of voting three town players in a row drops to 29.5%

(11/17)*(12/18)*(13/19) = .295

Sure, it's still quite possible that kyeugh just was unlucky. If this were to happen to anyone else I might overlook it, but kyeugh was the person who started two of those wagons. If I were to wager on anyone being mafia right now, I'd bet my money on kyeugh.
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i’m not sure i understand the value in looking at my votes as if they’re random events. i didn’t get “unlucky” my reads were just wrong (as were everyone else’s apparently)
 
Vipera Magnifica said:
Let's talk probability!

If kyeugh is town, and were to vote at random from the other players, the chance of hitting town would be 68.4%

13/19 = .684

If kyeugh were to pick another player, the chance of voting two town players in a row drops to 45.6%

(12/18)*(13/19) = .667

Now if kyeugh were to vote one more player, the chance of voting three town players in a row drops to 29.5%

(11/17)*(12/18)*(13/19) = .295

Sure, it's still quite possible that kyeugh just was unlucky. If this were to happen to anyone else I might overlook it, but kyeugh was the person who started two of those wagons. If I were to wager on anyone being mafia right now, I'd bet my money on kyeugh.
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Still, wouldn’t it be even weirder for the mafia to kill someone who not only had an active wagon during the Day, but whose wagon was started by a maf who also happened to start the winning wagon?
Once again, I might be being naïve, but this still doesn’t make sense to me. Besides, if The Weather Channel says that there’s a 29.5% chance of raining, I’m getting my ass off the couch to take the clothes off the line.
 
Trebek said:
rari_teh said:
wtf was the mafia’s reasoning behind this kill? even in the offchance of us being wrong about who was vigged and who was nightkilled, neither makes any sense for mafia??
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if we are wrong about the vigging, what other options could exist to explain the flavor?

(this sounds agressive, im just interesting in thinking about other possibilities so we dont hypofocus on one)
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idk. lovers? fishing brothers? some sort of weird modified version of those? also, do we know which of seshas/myuma was timed-out and which was vanished?
kyeugh said:
i spent like half of yesterday criticizing her read
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you spent all of tvt distancing me like a pro
 
mewtini said:
fwiw i really disagree with vm but i think he's been townier than not so far (tofu thing, stirring things up between this and the metatalk, bringing up game setup)? can other people give their thoughts on that
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I would agree even if I didn't have a (hypo)greencheck on him! Especially calculating how many mafia there are - don't see why mafia!he would bring that up if it seemed like we were all overlooking it. (yeah, yeah, he could be wifom-ing, but let's be honest nobody really knows how to read that anyway)

To be honest, I wasn't really feeling the kyeugh thing but now VM's pointed out the number of mafia I'm starting to wonder. Consider this: On my spreadsheet there are 17 living players. Minus myself and my two greenchecks, that leaves 14 potential mafia, of which 6 are actually scum. That's an insanely high proportion! If any of my townreads are reliable at all (and I know I'm not great at reads, but I think they're at least better than random chance) I would expect a random lynch from my nullpile {Trebek, Emmy, M+7, RNP, Ultracool, Superjolt, Butterfree} to have at least a ~50% chance of hitting. So I concur with VM that it seems weird for kyeugh to have hit three townies.

Something still feels off about VM's theory but I don't think it's so much of a reach that we should dismiss it out of hand
 
Incidentally I remembered M+7 asked me some questions I never got to answer yesterday, so for good measure:

M Plus 7 said:
Oh, you played in Champs? Awesome! What game?

What about Stryke and Ultracool feels pure? I agree with you on the latter, not sure about the former.
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I played in season 5 game 1! (I'm antialiasis.)

I guess Stryke being pure is kind of irrelevant now, but I believe was particularly thinking of stuff like #958, where he expressed not liking any of the opposing lynch trains while he was under attack. In general it felt like he was reasoning from a genuine, non-opportunistic perspective.
 
kyeugh said:
Vipera Magnifica said:
Let's talk probability!

If kyeugh is town, and were to vote at random from the other players, the chance of hitting town would be 68.4%

13/19 = .684

If kyeugh were to pick another player, the chance of voting two town players in a row drops to 45.6%

(12/18)*(13/19) = .667

Now if kyeugh were to vote one more player, the chance of voting three town players in a row drops to 29.5%

(11/17)*(12/18)*(13/19) = .295

Sure, it's still quite possible that kyeugh just was unlucky. If this were to happen to anyone else I might overlook it, but kyeugh was the person who started two of those wagons. If I were to wager on anyone being mafia right now, I'd bet my money on kyeugh.
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i’m not sure i understand the value in looking at my votes as if they’re random events. i didn’t get “unlucky” my reads were just wrong (as were everyone else’s apparently)
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exactly, they're not random events. They were informed choices. If you were town, with the information available to you, you would have an even lower percentage of voting for three townies.

If you're mafia, then you already know who all the town are.
 
Vipera Magnifica said:
kyeugh said:
Vipera Magnifica said:
Let's talk probability!

If kyeugh is town, and were to vote at random from the other players, the chance of hitting town would be 68.4%

13/19 = .684

If kyeugh were to pick another player, the chance of voting two town players in a row drops to 45.6%

(12/18)*(13/19) = .667

Now if kyeugh were to vote one more player, the chance of voting three town players in a row drops to 29.5%

(11/17)*(12/18)*(13/19) = .295

Sure, it's still quite possible that kyeugh just was unlucky. If this were to happen to anyone else I might overlook it, but kyeugh was the person who started two of those wagons. If I were to wager on anyone being mafia right now, I'd bet my money on kyeugh.
Click to expand...
i’m not sure i understand the value in looking at my votes as if they’re random events. i didn’t get “unlucky” my reads were just wrong (as were everyone else’s apparently)
Click to expand...
exactly, they're not random events. They were informed choices. If you were town, with the information available to you, you would have an even lower percentage of voting for three townies.

If you're mafia, then you already know who all the town are.
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if this was true then town would just win every time
 
kokorico said:
To be honest, I wasn't really feeling the kyeugh thing but now VM's pointed out the number of mafia I'm starting to wonder. Consider this: On my spreadsheet there are 17 living players. Minus myself and my two greenchecks, that leaves 14 potential mafia, of which 6 are actually scum. That's an insanely high proportion! If any of my townreads are reliable at all (and I know I'm not great at reads, but I think they're at least better than random chance) I would expect a random lynch from my nullpile {Trebek, Emmy, M+7, RNP, Ultracool, Superjolt, Butterfree} to have at least a ~50% chance of hitting. So I concur with VM that it seems weird for kyeugh to have hit three townies.
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this kind of makes sense except for that i wasn’t really trying to get seshas lynched and the myuma wagon wasn’t even mine. it’s not like i just shot three townies in a row

btw if i’m cop n1 rari green

also gonna do this for now mr ultracool
 
Vipera Magnifica said:
Let's talk probability!

If kyeugh is town, and were to vote at random from the other players, the chance of hitting town would be 68.4%

13/19 = .684

If kyeugh were to pick another player, the chance of voting two town players in a row drops to 45.6%

(12/18)*(13/19) = .667

Now if kyeugh were to vote one more player, the chance of voting three town players in a row drops to 29.5%

(11/17)*(12/18)*(13/19) = .295

Sure, it's still quite possible that kyeugh just was unlucky. If this were to happen to anyone else I might overlook it, but kyeugh was the person who started two of those wagons. If I were to wager on anyone being mafia right now, I'd bet my money on kyeugh.
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kyeugh isn't the only person playing, though. If every town player has a 29.5% chance of voting for three townies, then out of 13 townies probably four of them would happen to vote for three townies purely by coincidence in any given day (well, that's simplified because it's assuming everyone votes for three different people, but). Picking out one of them and then saying it's unlikely they'd vote three townies is fallacious.

I'd have to look at kyeugh's posts again to see how her starting the wagons might influence things, but statistically this is very misleading.
 
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