Forum Revival TV Tropes Mafia Revival - D7

[Ottercopter]

Please keep the chain going! It’s not you, it’s me, good sport!

Oh god oh god oh god oh god oh god uhhhhhhh crap, this is so much pressure. Sorry, I'm so scared of screwing this up somehow. Is there any harm in passing this VM, or would you like me to stick to one of you two? Hoping there's no harm in at least asking.

 

[Herbe]

Yes, he's town, I got his role alignment and he told me his role

^this was liesville. Butterfree didn't tell me anything except that I found a catch. Mawile told me he was outgroup mafia, and it would have had to been a loooooong con for him to lie about that. We did get out of thread communication though.

So basically at the end of N0 Bfree told me that I found a catch! And that his alignment was town. Private comm was opened, and we talked about our roles from there.

Here's another relevant one from EOD2. Butterfree told me about the catch, but didn't say the alignment thing. And we did get private communication, and we did talk about our roles. It wasn't all lies in the name of self-preservation...

 

[Ottercopter]

Or I guess you can just post a shrug emoji or something if any of those are fine.

 

[Keldeo]

It's okay, we don't have to decide what to do with the role just this minute!

TV Tropes Mafia Revival, Day 11. Every post ends with "it's not you, it's me." The mafia and Butterfree are maintaining separate spreadsheets to track each swap. No one knows who has the body snatcher role, or even if it's still alive. It's not you, it's me - I hope we can still be friends.

 

[rari_teh]

Oh god oh god oh god oh god oh god uhhhhhhh crap, this is so much pressure. Sorry, I'm so scared of screwing this up somehow. Is there any harm in passing this VM, or would you like me to stick to one of you two? Hoping there's no harm in at least asking.

At the moment, the swapper is not me, it’s you. So yeah, swap your heart’s content lol

 

[kyeugh]

I think MF is pretty likely to flip mafia given rari's result and her radio silence starting yesterday. I agree that shrugging and lynching her today will limit the amount of information we can get out of the day, but I think we're gonna have to do it eventually given that there doesn't seem to be a vig, so why not today?

no particular reason why not to today. mostly i felt the thread was kind of dead and i thought it was because everyone was just kind of eh ok we’ll lynch mf good job folks. but if conversation can carry on anyway that’s fine.

ngl i’m slightly checked out of this. i feel like my grip on what’s going on is pretty loose. it seems kind of late in the game for my feelings about everything to be so wishywashy and tenuous but i can’t really make myself feel strongly about anything.

 

[rari_teh]

ngl i’m slightly checked out of this. i feel like my grip on what’s going on is pretty loose. it seems kind of late in the game for my feelings about everything to be so wishywashy and tenuous but i can’t really make myself feel strongly about anything.

I gotta admit I am feeling a little bit like this as well. I don’t think lynching M&F is a surefire way to kill mafia, but we don’t have any other leads >at all<

 

[mewtini]

I don’t think lynching M&F is a surefire way to kill mafia, but we don’t have any other leads >at all<

i mean there's not a reason that spec can't carry on about and beyond MF, but i'm wondering why you doubt your read? (unless it's just an observance of the plain fact that nothing is really ever surefire, ha)

 

[kyeugh]

i think they’re saying that lynching mf doesn’t really lead to any insights that will help us scumhunt further.

 

[kyeugh]

unless she flips green! then we lynch rari

 

[Ottercopter]

...I think i've already proven pretty succinctly that I'm terrible at tone reading, but on the topic of suspects, though, Kyeugh, did your info about RNP confirm that he was town aligned, or just that he's a roleblocker?

 

[mewtini]

...I think i've already proven pretty succinctly that I'm terrible at tone reading, but on the topic of suspects, though, Kyeugh, did your info about RNP confirm that he was town aligned, or just that he's a roleblocker?

i don't think we know.

a follow-up q, but feel free to avoid it if you wish: is the redirector not mafia-aligned then? i'd been operating under that assumption

idk, wouldn’t rule it out.

 

[rari_teh]

i mean there's not a reason that spec can't carry on about and beyond MF, but i'm wondering why you doubt your read? (unless it's just an observance of the plain fact that nothing is really ever surefire, ha)

It’s pretty much an observance of the plain fact that nothing is really ever surefire lol

I mean, it’s possible that she isn’t lying. I don’t think that it would be too farfetched to say that her role makes her flip mafia… On the other hand, she’s literally the only person we have anything against besides a hunch.

 

[mewtini]

I don’t think that it would be too farfetched to say that her role makes her flip mafia

like the paranoid cop role? that role would be town if true afaik ... i'm just not super inclined to believe the claim

On the other hand, she’s literally the only person we have anything against besides a hunch.

on the other hand, this

 

[Panini]

Yo, I'm away for the weekend again so I'm phone only once more until the last sort of bit of the phase.

Just sort of rough thoughts:
- I think the VM response is like, fine? I don't think I'm as swayed about it as other people have been expressing because I feel like it,, meanders a bit in terms of the speculation so I'm not quite digesting it but I don't think it's a particularly unnatural reaction either so like? Eh
@Vipera Magnifica if it's safe for you to say so, who'd you heal last night?
- Re: Mawile stuff, I don't know how to feel so much about the info manipulation side of things (or rather, I think the concept of the role is plausible purely because of Seshas and it seems likely there is messing around with some aspect of the result tangle we've been in but I do pause at believing the exact mechanics as written for the same reasons as Negrek expressed)
However, I do kind of buy the out-group thing based largely on the closeness of the D2 wagons. I can't check the timestamps on mobile but as far as I can remember Mawile was leading/close to next competing wagon for pretty much all of that and maybe even up to where EOD should have been so I'm doubtful that part would have been a lie.
- obligatory dual thank you keldeo for the clear/sorry that you wasted a clear on me
Lastly:
- just gonna park on M&F for now- I agree completely agree that we should still hear them out but. It's the second red check from a proven cop so, just gonna throw my hat in there with everyone else saying "well, probably" and see if I should be worrying later?

 

[Keldeo]

- I think the VM response is like, fine? I don't think I'm as swayed about it as other people have been expressing because I feel like it,, meanders a bit in terms of the speculation so I'm not quite digesting it but I don't think it's a particularly unnatural reaction either so like? Eh

What do you think about any reasons that VM might lie about inheriting ILS's role (as opposed to, I guess, Jack's?) I guess I just don't understand why he would lie about that, although I also can't come up with an explanation for why he wouldn't have inherited Jack's role unless Jack was, like, a "terrorist"/"out-group mafia who flips town" role, because we presumably had an out-group mafia in Mawile who flipped mafia.

That's one of the two mechanical issues that have come up wrt VM. But because ILS claimed to be White Mage/magic healing before he died, if VM is telling the truth about inheriting iLS's role, I'm chalking it up to an info-scrambling role that VM apparently targeted kyeugh with nanomachines.

 

[Keldeo]

Also @Panini, who are your next targets assuming we lynch MF today? Do you have any less-consensus clears or thoughts?

Pulled some MF quotes. Reading her posts feels a bit like jumping the gun because yeah, she could be a miller or rari could've gotten redirected, but...

• wrt ottercopter: since this is technically outlaw out-of-thread communication I suppose I should share with the class that, on D1, I prodded her with the fact that we were rolling and she was pretty surprised; I suppose such adds credence to her not having so much as read her role PM until crunchtime. that said, I highly doubt she's a third-party who wins by being lynched, because, panic or no, there's not a way in hell she wouldn't have kept it quiet if she'd read that; she's not new to mafia. what I do buy is that she either a) does have a convoluted but town-helpful role, in which case attempting to parse it properly in the middle of The Postening would have been genuinely headbreaking; or b) is mafia and took her time claiming because she was fishing for a quick defense, which she now has to find some way to make sound plausible.
• in the former case, I do believe ottercopter really should share with the class; if activating her useful power depends on town, we can arrange for it, and if it depends on mafia, that's most likely what they're already expecting, and chances of them taking the bait, least of all on a player who's likely to get vigged on her own, are infinitesimal. in the latter case... well, in the latter case, bye otter~
• (ftr, I also do not think that lynching ottercopter today would be risky at all. I do think it'd be a waste of a lynch though. vig can vig, unless it's taking vig suspiciously long to vig)

Does anyone have opinions about what this means for Otter if MF is mafia?

Other than that, mewtini and Seshas look vaguely good for pushing on MF at various points in time (mewtini more since the push started with agreeing with Boq around EOD1), she talks about Otter a decent amount but idk what to make of it, and she posits serimachi as a useful inactive lynch.

Spoiler

• fwiw I'm still considering it a possibility that VM was lying about the backup thing and the neglected extra detail was a fabrication; mafiosi pull that pretty often with their fakeclaims. I'm not lending that theory any further credence at the moment than that it's technically possible, but it sure is

This is tempered by it being super early game, but she shaded ILS in a similar "it sure is" way

Posts by people pushing her:

god sorry i feel like i keep just grilling. it's not that i think you spent hours it's just that i would think a stereotypical town would devote like 5 of those 10 minutes to just catch up or say something else

and honestly maybe i'm just really scared of mf because i know shes a veteran player and i'm swayed by eif

nice
M&F
we should lynch this first, since there are no strings attached

Some posts about inactives:

[to Ottercopter]
yeah, that all tracks and also validates my speculation that your PM was rough to read in a hurry; call this 1% speculation if you will, though, I still consider it entirely possible that, as scum, you figured a sincere-sounding surrender would sound more genuine than an attempt to remain useful. regardless, though, I'd still rather the vig take care of this one -- if for no other reason than mercy -- and continue on the chase for new information

anyway, RNP feels very much like a dead end; vig fodder for after Ottercopter, really. microanalysis of blatant mockery isn't very likely to yield us much of anything new

seri is increasingly striking me as an useful inactive lynch piñata, yeah; if we drive that train in and the result we get is mafia, that's potentially be a solid source of raised eyebrows; it'd clear Eifie more solidly for one, and it'd possibly turn that strange bit of speculation into a lead

and tbh, I liked Otter being confused about what to do with the swapping power, earlier, but I'm not entirely sure why that's towny :P

 

[Keldeo]

@Seshas, how good is your read on Mist?

Open question: Does anyone think there is someone suspicious that the thread as a whole is largely townreading or not suspecting?

I feel like almost everyone medium-to-high-activity has something going for them, but I doubt that the remaining mafia would just be like, 4 low-activity people and MF. So I think I must be wrongfully townreading someone, but who?

 

[Mr. Ultracool]

Does anyone have opinions about what this means for Otter if MF is mafia?

Well, we could probably check Ottercopter pretty easily if we swapped with him tonight whilst lynching M&F. That way, Ottercopter would either be town after the swap with the swapper being maf (perhaps outgroup?), the swap would not go through because Otter is an ingroup maf (the PM for the Bodysnatcher role mentioned that some roles were unswappable, so I'd assume that this means that the swapper can't get into the maf chat like that) or both Otter and the swapper turn out to be town. Either way, it would tell us a great deal more about the role of Ottercopter.

 

[Mr. Ultracool]

@rari_teh , would you be on board with my proposal of swapping with @Ottercopter ?