Snom Mafia

[mewtini]

w the context that we have one mislynch left

 

[Trebek]

i guess that i just think that, if we're trying to sort the emerging mist vs. jolt or sande split, that voting julia would sort of be ineffective/lazy ig

yeah, that’s totally valid and part of why i was FeelsBadding about it

i don’t think a scenario pops up where i actually vote julia today for the record

 

[Trebek]

also, now that we’re in a new day are we privy to more skylarthoughts? :o

 

[sanderidge]

i caught up!! i'm proud of myself!! i, uh, am probably going to go play fire emblem for a while but i'll still be reading the thread.

i said this earlier, but i feel better about trebek now, because he seems to be speculating helpfully about the possible mech information we got out of the popularity changing role/s(?). i still feel good about keldeo and mewt and skylar.

i feel like it's weird/not smart to be like "this person voted for me, and Then when i read and caught up they didn't post that many helpful things i felt weird-bad about them" but that is how i feel about mist right now :p so for me mist has utterly replaced ysabel to be my Most Suspicioned. i looked at their iso and there's three pages of really short posts? there are some slightly helpful things early on (don't hypocop: 32, ignore popularity to stop mafia from pr-hunting: 146). they did say they were busy with work that day though. the next Day they're more helpful, and talk a little bit about wagons from yesterDay (758, 766, also 768). they speculate really briefly (one or two single-lined posts) about the popularity role/s (867) + about the deaths (863, 864). then they suggest consensus targets for the song role but it doesn't seem like anyone's gotten back to that yet.

idk! i just feel like there's not a lot there to go off of. people talk a lot about how mafia usually have an agenda and it doesn't seem like mist really has one? but ysabel's also mentioned that a maf strategy can be keep low profile and be Helpful Ish and maybe this fits under that. so i'm going to be >:/ at them for now. i'm feeling nervous to vote early so i won't do that yet but that's where my vote mentally is.

 

[Zori]

Votecount (#944):
sanderidge | 1 | Mist1422 (#855)
Mist1422 | 1 | kyeugh (#878)
kyeugh | 1 | mewtini (#933)

Spoiler: Vote History

Mist1422 votes sanderidge [->1] (#855)
kyeugh votes Mist1422 [->1] (#878)
mewtini votes kyeugh [->1] (#933)

 

[Ys_]

Fwiw I don't think it's as easy to fake as you may think, and I also don't think anyone else is part of it. But if you still don't feel 100% confident about me then by all means feel free to sus me/question me. I'm willing to prove myself.

i forget if i’ve said this already but i kind of disagree with this. while the diss role could be mafia for sure, i don’t think it’s right to assume that it’s PROBABLY mafia to the point that we’re building reads on other people from it. i’m all for getting townleaned but i don’t want it to be built on pillars of sand and that’s how i kind of feel when a bunch of people’s reads are informed by it.

it sounds like most of you guys are in agreement about keldeo/mewtini/mp7/blu? hmm. maybe i’ll reread the thread tomorrow… if you guys all see it, maybe i’m missing something.

The part about not clearing Kyeugh based on just that flavor seems fair. I do agree that Keldeo, mewt and Blu sound/act towny, even before the secret club thing. I'm like 90% sure Keldeo is town. If he's mafia, then I have a theory that the partners could be SJ and Julia. (may help to explain why there wasn't much movement, but I'm leaning more on SJ as town for reasons others have mentioned + one other theory.

d1 MP7 vibes-based reads

Never yeet today
Keldeo -- I see no cause for concern, but he's Keldeo... but also screw tinfoil and I believe I can confidently figure him out by d3 *note that later on she seemed practically 100% certain that Keldeo was town. But my w!keldeo conspiracy theory says he may have killed MP because she was one of the only ones who could correctly read him.
mewtini -- Reminds me of Cats mew, seems genuinely solvey enough, she's fine yep

Almost never yeet today
Blu -- Tone is absolutely impeccable, gut loved entrance post and subsequent stream, mindmeld with Keldeo, need to pressure for more reads but OK for now yep

Probably do not yeet today
sande -- Tone is good, content is ~fine, needs some pressure at some point and I would like to interact with, but riding with this for now she was more unsure of sande later on. Wonder why the shift.

Ughhh maybe 1 wolf here but I'm not sure I want to yeet?
koko -- conflicted feelings, reads of Blu and Keldeo read like TMI, but gut likes recent posting, probably can solve with more data
Trebek -- conflicted feelings, gut very much disliked at first, but eased after time and interactions, also considering mew's thoughts here

Upper POE - could yeet today but not enthusiastically
kyeugh -- hard to discern given lack of reads, need more data, taking Keldeo's point re: agenda into consideration
Mist -- eh, no reason to townread at all really, but probably can clear with more time
Ysabel -- certain reads seem forced, need to interact with for more data
Julia -- new player, not ideal for d1 yeet, but *shrug*

POE - totally okay with yeet today
Ultracool -- effectively null slot, objectively a good play
Superjolt -- major contrast to posts that I saw in Cats, lacking substance, agree with Keldeo thoughts

Consequently, I want to add pressure here.

Superjolt

Hmm. Kyeugh, SJ, Mist (Julia doesn't count bc inactivity means she couldn't have killed MP). Though SJ and Mist are not in the same mafia team together unless Mist thought voting for SJ could townclear them later on?? AKA a gamble?

Superjolt hedges in most of his takes in #369 (mewtini and Ysabel are the only ones without some sort of qualifier). I kind of think this is a him thing regardless of his alignment, he wasn't able to say much more confidently after a bit more posting in early Cats... I appreciate him giving the thoughts at least and want to unvote because let's give him another day here.

conspiracy theory says that could be a w/w interaction but also I want to say fair enough? Also again, what does hedging mean?

chicken god: kokorico
pretty towny so far: Keldeo, mewtini
the grey area: Ysabel, Trebek, kyeugh, M Plus 7, sanderidge, Mist1422
uneasy: Bluwiikoon, Superjolt
poast moar: JuliaTheSeaTurtleQueen, Mr. Ultracool

fwiw e was sussing/voting for SJ before switching to MU.

i don't think that mafia would go and point out the possible reasons why that (the popularity targeting thing) doesn't clear them, i feel like they'd just ride with it and be like yeah!! that confirms me as town!!! especially if they chose to start out debuffing one of their own that way. i dont think i have time to go find the post where skylar said that being debuffed doesn't confirm her as town but i feel good about that

I feel like this is a genuine point, and something that would make me feel better about Kyeugh too. Although I'm not as sure about Kyeugh now, so would have to ISO her. Townlean for Sanderidge, null for Kyeugh.

i think i mentioned this earlier (and they did just now) but we're like the only two people in the thread who aren't really reading blu as town for tone? maybe it's bc i wasn't In cats and was just reading along but for me blu is sitting just above neutral, not really town. i feel like i'm kind of sheeping koko bc i feel like i'm repeating a lot of things e says... maybe we just think similarly idk. but i feel okay about koko bc what e's thinking lines up with what i'm thinking.

Also seems fair and makes me townlean sanderidge. And koko ended up being town, so. Maybe not something a maf couldn't emulate, though, just maybe not as spontaneously as this post seems to be.

what i meant by this is that i don't feel like not knowing things about the game, the way julia came in and asked about it, necessarily clears people: i feel like if someone who didn't know anything about mafia got a mafia role, their scum team might tell them to come into the thread and express their confusion there in case that clears them. that might be kind of tinfoil of me, though, and based on how some others are saying they feel like mafia wouldn't do that / they feel julia's tone was okay (and some are saying maybe not?!), i'm putting that thought aside for later.

seems fair, too. Especially the bolded part, though I think someone else had already pointed that out.

reads on blu relate to reads on julia bc those reads both seem like a lot of people are reading them towny for tone, and i don't really agree with the Majority Feeling on blu, so it makes sense to me that i also wouldn't feel the same way on julia. but again i'm putting this thought down for now bc it's 11:29am and eod is Soon

Hmm, fair, except Julia had only posted twice and Blu more, and my read on Blu was more than just tone-based iirc.

I am mildly concerned UC/SJ are v/v for no particular reason, but not sure what the better alternative is at this junction. Both slots are problematic and unlikely to be moved out of the POE.

Yeahh... agreed.

People in the thread: you, kokorico, mewtini, sande. I already townread the first three, and even if not, no one is... like... doing anything to move the wagons away from this grouping. Popularity throws a wrench into this line of thinking, but I still think that's kind of weird if the wagons are v/w, as there's probably at least 2 town who'd get +1 popularity from a mafia flip here. Also, if they're w/w I definitely think their third partner would be trying to do something right now if they were here.

Maybe the third partner was Julia? Kind of unlucky for mafia if that was the case... but yeah, the simplest theory is that the trains were both v/v.

actually, hot take:

if the wagons are v/v, who is currently not voting? this is sorta what i was thinking of when i made the post ™ that seems to be getting quoted a lot

if wagons are v/v mafia know their popularity will go down so they might try to avoid voting and let town self destruct

Umm SJ, Julia, Kyeugh and I think I'm forgetting someone

i think i tend to do a lot of really long quote-heavy longposts and that. is not great for eod i don't think

Interactions are better! How are you feeling about the gamestate? Could you throw down an updated reads list or something super quickly?

hello!! i'm feeling kind of weird about not knowing what exactly happened in the second half + realizing our memory problems probably are not great for playing mafia, especially with any realtime things. also i haven't voted yet and i feel like i need to so that's making me feel a little nervous

current reads, minus me:
Julia -- not sure about; putting aside for later, since i think the only thing she's posted is entrance/not knowing what mafia is so far? i would feel bad taking out a newer player really early though fair
Mist1422 -- lower neutral feelings; i feel like they've said helpful things but i don't remember what. have they been around recently?? shrug maybe but not prominently
Mr. Ultracool -- ??????? have they posted at all? nope. RIP
Bluwiikoon -- i've talked about them a fair amount so far, i think; i feel like they're sitting right at neutral because i'm not actually reading their tone to be that... town-indicative? hmm ok.
Superjolt -- also ????? i remember they posted on the first day and a throwaway comment about their hat but not much else. and a reads list
kyeugh -- feeling good!! for reasons mentioned in my last longer post for the part about popularity iirc? But yeah...
kokorico -- also feeling good because we're thinking similarly about blu and also about skylar i think mhmm
M Plus 7 -- good-neutral! i think you're doing Solvy Things? mhmm
Ysabel -- solid neutral? i'm not really sure what they're doing when they are asking and answering questions; it doesn't feel as productive to me, but i do think they might have good ideas / do want to help fair enough. it's interesting to see reads about me and almost everyone seems to have me as neutral, so
Keldeo -- instinct says Trust Keldeo lol but that instinct is from when i was reading cats mafia and thought he was town -_- ^^' a pretty genuine read if you ask me ? Also I didn't read cats so idk
mewtini -- good-neutral! i am also going Trust Mewt from when i read cats mafia and bc i feel like they've been doing good Poking At People's Thoughts mhmm agreed
Trebek -- solid neutral? i just... don't think i remember a lot about what they've posted aside from that early pointing out about mafia and popularity and wagons fair enough

if we're looking at current wagons i think i'll go ultracool because i don't remember a single post from them, vs others in neutral and good where i do remember at least some things.

Seems fair enough/genuine though not very strong. I don't think they were faking much of these reads tbh.

also, i feel like the numbers in this game mean that the mafia should be less willing to bus than they were in cats? maybe i’m thinking about that wrong

fwiw I thought only one mafia at most would be in each train. Never more than one, because there would be no need unless one of those trains was a wolf.

fuck i forgot day started today

ehh also seems genuine?

- @sanderidge in 650 you say this:

this is a Good Poast and i feel good about trebek for it. there is literally nothing else i remember trebek posting so, uh, that's the Only Thing for me in their favor so far, but i feel like that's significant

but then list trebek as being somewhat suspicious not much later (in 722). wondering what your thought process is there

this was because i felt like that was the only thing that i felt okay about with trebek (vs ysabel who didn't have that Point In Favor). also tbh because when i was asked for suspicions i just looked at the list i posted earlier and picked out my Solid Neutrals and decided who i didn't like More.

Trebek and @Ysabel and @sanderidge, can you talk a little about your read on me after yesterday?

i feel like i'm supposed to have something to say here but i don't :'D

admittedly most of my hesitation on voting SJ was popularity-based, but reading over the UC wagon (primarily sande with the late vote but also slight concerns about trebek) I decided that it felt like he was being pushed by scum, and MP7 pushing sande made me feel better about that

(emphasis mine) pls help what does the italicized part mean

i mean, do we think that the mafia are scared enough of popularity to let the vote go to rand? or are you implying that every mafia member was voting UC

also, this flavor now seems to be a popularity raise. if that’s coming from the same role as the popularity lower from N0, then i feel better now about that role being town: having the mafia be able to raise their popularity seems a tad unbalanced, unless the role has to alternate?

fwiw this kind of post is the sort of thing that sticks out in my memory so i no longer feel that suspicious about trebek, and ysabel doing ISOs seems like a good and Solving Things thing to be doing... which makes it worse for me that i didn't do a superjolt iso yesterday lmao. but now i am at a (rowlet emoji) sort of place because i don't think i'm... reading people right? i voted for town and the people i didn't feel great about yesterday i feel more okay about now so i think i am probably making Bad Assumptions or reads somewhere.

some thoughts about the popularity modifying role thing: there are a few possibilities kicking around in my head. maybe there are two roles and they alternate nights? or, in the case of them being a single role, maybe it alternates and its use is obligate? that would explain its n0 use. this isn’t useful i guess but it’s the only thought i have about this game rn

do we think we can derive anything from the fact that superjolt didn’t throw out a self defense vote? i don’t remember if he was active at eod but i imagine mafia chat would have been bugging him to vote UC?

I think the logical guess is a mafia (or third party?) one-shot day vigilante. I'm thinking one-shot because a dayvig that can shoot every day is kind of OP with low numbers. If it was a town day vig, that would be... a little disappointing.

Could point to me because she has a good read on me.

i kind of think mp7 gets nightkilled in that case rather than blown up conspicuously in the middle of the day several hours in honestly. that’s a pretty small thing to use a terrorist charge on. my guess is that the mafia obtained information overnight that made them want to take mp7 out
i kind of do not like the idea of suspecting someone who i feel has made pretty good and insightful posting because someone who shaded them a bit got ded

Dayvig could also be town, right? I'm not sure why a townie would vig MP7, unless they perceived something that I'm not perceiving.

we should be deciding on consensus targets for the song role tbh tbh

it would suggest that tbh! i should probably let the snom out of the bag here, part of my role is that i can tell when i get rolecopped—and i did, n0! so this chain of events suggests to me that the rolecop is scum, mp7 got checked overnight, and a mafia daykiller shot her shortly afterwards because she had a power role of some kind that they wanted to suppress. (they left me alone because my role is kind of useless, i expect.)

given the small player base my gut is telling me that the second is more likely, regardless of if it’s town or maf

Fair enough, but don't forget somoene who already died could have had the role, plus Seshas mentioned roles that could interact with popularity, so I don't think it's impossible to have more than one role that interacts with popularity.

 

[sanderidge]

i posted an opinion and now i'm scared that i'm wrong lmfao. gonna go hide with fire emblem

 

[mewtini]

Also again, what does hedging mean?

basically that you don't give any definite thoughts in either direction (usually to give yourself room to change/retcon it later)

 

[mewtini]

Votecount (#944):
sanderidge | 1 | Mist1422 (#855)
Mist1422 | 1 | kyeugh (#878)
kyeugh | 1 | mewtini (#933)

oh
unvote

 

[Ys_]

Fudge, I didn't mean to have so many quotes without thoughts. Seems like the draft wasn't saved, but fortunately I c/ped.
Ahh. Thanks, mewt. :)

Spoiler: Quotes with my thoughts

some thoughts about the popularity modifying role thing: there are a few possibilities kicking around in my head. maybe there are two roles and they alternate nights? or, in the case of them being a single role, maybe it alternates and its use is obligate? that would explain its n0 use. this isn’t useful i guess but it’s the only thought i have about this game rn

Could be. That makes sense. I'm thinking about who would have given me the +popularizer and not someone who was upper in the trusted townies scale. But umm I'll leave that, at least for now.

do we think we can derive anything from the fact that superjolt didn’t throw out a self defense vote? i don’t remember if he was active at eod but i imagine mafia chat would have been bugging him to vote UC?

Yeah, makes sense. But a self-preservation vote could have come from both alignments. Maybe they were just less motivated/uninterested?

I think the logical guess is a mafia (or third party?) one-shot day vigilante. I'm thinking one-shot because a dayvig that can shoot every day is kind of OP with low numbers. If it was a town day vig, that would be... a little disappointing.

Yeah. Also remember the rock was there since the beginning, but it only exploded toDay, and not even at the beginning, so if it was the result of a role, it may be an action that takes time to perform or is detonated by something specific. Maybe something MP said?

Could point to me because she has a good read on me.

xD Yeah, that's a part of my super conspiracy theory. But like I said, it's 10%.

Dayvig could also be town, right? I'm not sure why a townie would vig MP7, unless they perceived something that I'm not perceiving.

I kind of don't think so. I'm leaning more on third-party. Because if it was a townie dayvig they could have consulted about it with others, and a mafia with this power seems a bit OP?

we should be deciding on consensus targets for the song role tbh tbh

Do you mean who the person with the role should increase or decrease or who we think has the role? BC if it's the second one, I'm not too sure if it doesn't benefit mafia? As in, if the role is not mafia-aligned, it would give mafia an advantage to know who has that role.

it would suggest that tbh! i should probably let the snom out of the bag here, part of my role is that i can tell when i get rolecopped—and i did, n0! so this chain of events suggests to me that the rolecop is scum, mp7 got checked overnight, and a mafia daykiller shot her shortly afterwards because she had a power role of some kind that they wanted to suppress. (they left me alone because my role is kind of useless, i expect.)

Hmmm ok. I'm not too good with these sort of theories, but again, why not kill MP at night then? And would it make sense for a mafia to have both killing roles?

given the small player base my gut is telling me that the second is more likely, regardless of if it’s town or maf

Yeah, ok, this is fair. Don't forget that the person with said role may already have died, though. And iirc Seshas did mention something about roles that interact with popularity, so it wouldn't be impossible to have more than one role that does this.

 

[Trebek]

i believe the other nonvoter was Blu btw

so now i’m like maybe my theory about non voters was moot lol

 

[Ys_]

Ysa: hi, it's me
SSClub: Mewt, Blu, Trebek (100% town)
Strong townread: Keldeo (90%)
townish read: Sanderidge (70-90%?)
neutral: Kyeugh, SJ (20%)
scumlean: Mist (5%)
Non-read: Julia

Sande fwiw I think you're doing ok :) making mistakes is part of the game

 

[kyeugh]

Hmmm ok. I'm not too good with these sort of theories, but again, why not kill MP at night then?

they wouldn’t kill mp7 at night in this case because the result of their role inspection wouldn’t return until the morning. if they found that she had some kind of threatening role, it would make sense for them to blow her up right away rather than waiting for the next night.

And would it make sense for a mafia to have both killing roles?

it would be a weird move for town to nuke mp7 and no one’s fessed up to it anyway, so my assumption is that it was a mafia kill, at least.

 

[Trebek]

it would be a weird move for town to nuke mp7 and no one’s fessed up to it anyway, so my assumption is that it was a mafia kill, at least.

this is my vibe rn too, i was unsure earlier in the day but the radio silence makes me think mafia

 

[Keldeo]

sande and kyeugh, who do you think Mist’s team would be?

 

[sanderidge]

hmm, for mist's team...
-- i'm not really looking at me and skylar for hopefully obvious reasons lmao
-- i definitely don't think superjolt bc i don't see why mist would vote for sj last minute and cause a tie if that was their partner - that seems unnecessary and risky if they could've slid by without that vote
-- i miiight have said mp7 before yesterday since they had a tiny interaction near the end of yesterDay but apparently not lmao. also that seems like it would have been a really obvious sort of interaction + mp7 flipped town, so maybe the idea is to look at people who mist hasn't interacted with at all?
-- mist mentions liking trebek's thoughts (699) (nice), says they're thinking keldeo is town (711). further back they also read mewt as town (167) but that's posted in a joking format that i don't know if they were serious about
-- 720: they give a PoE of me, skylar, sj, julia, which mostly lines up with the people i'm not thinking about (unless they're distancing that way?)

i can't say anything about julia/her slot based on lack of evidence, but also as far as i can tell just from skimming the iso mist doesn't ever interact with blu or mention them, except to answer the question about paranoid gun owner/traps? so maybe julia/blu/mist, but i also feel kind of nervous about that because i feel like calling julia/her slot scum is an easy out + i've been more about blu than almost anyone else in the thread because everyone else is reading them town (except koko, who was reading blu the same way as me, and then flipped town)? so i might be wanting to read blu as scum + reading something out of nothing here. Biased Takes from Sande tm

i dunno, maybe the noninteraction with blu is something i'm just missing/something to do with times online/lack of blu content to respond to (i've barely interacted with blu too), but i'd go with julia/blu/mist

 

[sanderidge]

damn i think i get along a lot better with isos than with trying to read the whole thread. or maybe it's just that mist's iso is so short it's manageable. but i feel more productive when i'm looking at isos

 

[sanderidge]

i also don't think mist ever mentions ysabel, but i don't think they're on a possible team -- she reads mist as possibly scum (952) (although this is after saying a lot earlier (on d1 i think) on that she'd give mist the benefit of the doubt for now (362)). if they're on a team then they're distancing very differently which is maybe just playstyle but i'm also not reading ysabel as scummy or suspicious at all anymore (especially since now that i've read past page 20, her longer posts seem thoughtful and useful).

 

[mewtini]

i've been more about blu than almost anyone else in the thread because everyone else is reading them town (except koko, who was reading blu the same way as me, and then flipped town)? so i might be wanting to read blu as scum + reading something out of nothing here.

i'm kind of confused about how this translates to a blu scumread, unless i'm missing something

also idk if you've seen mp7/keldeo mention that that first ysabel post you mention could have been early distancing, but i think that that's a legitimate point (though i think ysabel is just town personally so i guess this is a moot point coming from me)

 

[mewtini]

oh lol you literally said it's confbias ig