Tarot Mafia

[JackPK]

Just checking my math - if Mist's information is right, there were 10 town at the start of night 1. If all 6 people who flipped "not mafia" after that were town, then, there'd be 4 town / 5 non-town alive right now.

So it has to be that there is a third party alive right now (and so there are probably 4 town, 4 mafia, and this third party), or one of the people who flipped "not mafia" was a third party (and so there are 5 town and 4 mafia). Otherwise, mafia would already have won, right?

So that makes today definitely either LyLo or MyLo, right?

 

[Novae]

There are items and a townie does give them out so that lends a lot of credit to ultracool

 

[JackPK]

Otherwise, mafia would already have won, right?

Not if the Misslynches could be prevented, due to there being a possibility of town gaining the upper hand once more

I think preventing the misyeet doesn't give town the upper hand, if I'm thinking through it correctly? Like, it prevents town from losing as much ground, but mafia would still get a nightkill before town has another chance to yeet correctly, so we'd be down 1 person instead of being down 2 people, which helps us survive but doesn't get us any closer to winning

 

[Novae]

I think UC was probably like blocked or something and couldn’t give items

 

[Keldeo]

Yeah, there would just be no way for town to ever kill mafia if there were 5 mafia and 4 town alive, because the vig is dead.

I feel like if Mist were mafia (even regardless of UC's alignment, though especially so if UC is town) she would just give a fake answer about items not existing and let him and me die.

I think UC was probably like blocked or something and couldn’t give items

How do you think this interacts with mewtini apparently getting blocked? Like, multiple blocking roles? A multi-use strongman in a game this tight seems to kind of defeat the point of a doctor. I could see like, a jailing role worded as other actions not visiting him, rather than other actions having no effect, too. It's possible that speculating on this isn't useful.

 

[storm]

ughhhh this is confusing

 

[Keldeo]

Mist, actually, do you think there could be any chance of like, rari being that town item giver, and UC somehow getting their role...? Like how much % would you give UC to be town after having that answer? I do think Wheel of Fortune as a flavor makes a good amount of sense with that claim.


I think it would be useful to hear everyone's strongest reads, i.e. who people think the mafia team is either via direct scumreads or process of elimination.

I haven't done a lot of rereading, I'll try to find the time tomorrow. I'm still a little conflicted about mewtini but I'm gonna go with she wouldn't bus kind of ruthlessly d1 and then give a mechanically conflicting claim, and I feel moderately strongly about Mist and therefore UC. That leaves some subset of [Jack, storm, Stryke, ZM, Butterfree] in no order, though I feel like there are some points in favor of everyone in that group.

 

[Keldeo]

ughhhh this is confusing

Yeah tbh :(

Are you confused about something specific? Do you think "thinking on the page" about things might help?

 

[Keldeo]

There are items and a townie does give them out so that lends a lot of credit to ultracool

I'd particularly appreciate hearing any reads you have.

I'll stop spamming the thread now, sorry.

 

[Novae]

I think there’s probably like 85+% UC is town after that theory

I did actually consider that but I think it’s incredibly unlikely

 

[Stryke]

@Stryke, I forgot to ask yesterday, can you repeat all the results you've gotten so far? If you said what you got on night 1, I don't remember.

No one targeted me N0 or N1. You targeted me last night though

 

[storm]

well it might be a wild goose chase at this point tbh but the lack of items really throws me off? ultracool wasn't lying about his arcana, and the item giving role is the kind of thing that should be easy to verify, so sticking to it after several visits that didn't produce items implies it's the truth, to me?? but then someone blocking his role several times seems to be a risky and kind of pointless move, so... Why No Items

and if someone is blocking him then how come mewtini's heal didn't go through? I guess the only assumption I can take from this is that there's a lie in there but I don't really want to think either of them are lying??

 

[storm]

basically just!! coming to terms with the fact that whatever has led events to where we're at now involves deliberate misinformation and tactical thinking and aaaaaaaaaaa ))))):

this is. the first more intense day phase focused mafia game I've been a part of and also 100% the first where I made it this far without dying so. it's a whole lot rn

 

[Keldeo]

Okay, thank you, storm. Why don't you want to think either Mr. Ultracool or mewtini is lying?

@Stryke, I forgot to ask yesterday, can you repeat all the results you've gotten so far? If you said what you got on night 1, I don't remember.

No one targeted me N0 or N1. You targeted me last night though

Huh okay. Pretty sure Stryke does have access to some sort of self-watching ability then.

To be clear, I used my item thief ability on Stryke last night, not Mr. Ultracool, but was trying to imply that I visited Mr. Ultracool to reaction test Stryke.

 

[Stryke]

A thought on Mr. UC: in a weird way, I kind of think the fact that no one's gotten any items from him makes him a bit more trustworthy? Like, if maf!UC were claiming this, he could easily alert his fellow mafioso so that he could have one of them claim they got an item. But no one's gotten one yet, and I have to think maf!UC would realize that people might catch on if he claimed an item role and had no one get an item, or claim to get one.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that if maf!UC claimed an item role, he probably would've brought his fellow mafs into the act as well, so the fact that no one's gotten anything yet brings on way more suspicion than I think a wolf would try to attract.

 

[storm]

mewtini has seemed pretty talkative and helpful this whole time and like. ngl, a lot of the more indepth mechanics and speculation are hard to follow for me at this point, so I've been taking cues from her posts a lot,,, if she were lying that'd cast a lot of the assumptions I've been working with in doubt, and also seems like it'd be pretty awful for town?

with ultracool I just... can't personally see the sense in lying when he's had a whole lot of attention on him and his role this whole time! he's seemed pretty open with what he knows about it earlier too so. I guess I implicitly want to trust him for that?

(but this is also an extension of not really wanting anyone here to be lying even tho I realize at this point that kind of has to be the case)

 

[JackPK]

Bouncing back and forth between this and work, so I don't have a ton of time to devote to it, but I want to get a rough set of reads out before I open the ACNH thread and have to juggle it as well:

me
me

if they're scum, then my entire process of elimination falls apart bc I'm basing it on their info
Mist

I'm liking them, they seem plausible based on what we know so far
Ultracool - based entirely on Mist's info today and the assumption that item dispenser is a town role; I really hope I'm right and item dispenser isn't a mafia role lmaooooo
mewt - nice tone, helpful, I believe her actionclaims, and I don't think mafia would lie, leave loose ends in their lie, and then point out the loose ends in their lie right out of the gate before anyone else noticed them

hmmmmm I need more time to think about these and sort them
Stryke - confirmation of his claim hinges on Keldeo (i.e. they might be w/w)
Keldeo - isn't necessarily cleared by Mist's conf that items exist; might have simply opportunistically claimed an item-related role in hopes of flying under the radar when we started believing Ultracool
storm - could be town!flavorcop or scum!flavorcop, but probably not lying about being a flavorcop bc they accurately guessed Mist's arcana. I want to believe in them bc tone and sympathy with being overwhelmed, but I have no clue tbh

the more I overthink, the less confident I am
Butterfree

I fundamentally do not believe an "innocent child" claim without the mechconf that is supposed to be inherent to the role
Zero Moment - but will rise to the top of my list if mechconf happens

If we really do have 4 town 5 nontown left, then eek that means I'm probably looking at [Stryke/Keldeo/storm/Butterfree/ZM] as being nontown by process of elimination? worst case maybe like 4 nontown out of 5?

I have no idea how to even attempt to suss out the difference between mafia and 3p among that group, which is unfortunate since yeeting mafia at this point is way more valuable than yeeting 3p if I understand the math correctly

 

[JackPK]

I am tentatively going to park my vote on Zero Moment for now in hopes that, if he is really innocent child, it pressures him to actually activate the mech part of the role so we can at least confirm one townie for sure

 

[Mr. Ultracool]

I am tentatively going to park my vote on Zero Moment for now in hopes that, if he is really innocent child, it pressures him to actually activate the mech part of the role so we can at least confirm one townie for sure

That honestly sounds like a very reasonable thought process - @Zero Moment , can you tell how your Mechclear would be visble to us?

 

[Zero Moment]

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