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[TOWN WINS] ASB Halloween Mafia

Re: [D2] ASB Halloween Mafia

...Damn, all this happened during my shift?
So far, the evidence points to Flora. Hopefully we catch a big one today.
 
Re: [D2] ASB Halloween Mafia

I’m gonna be honest and say that this is a lot to follow as a new player, but as far as I can tell, Flora seems like the best target for today.
 
Re: [D2] ASB Halloween Mafia

The discussion today is much more heated, thanks to the appearance on the scene of a cop with some hot info--or at least, he says he's a cop. In the atmosphere of paranoia that's gripped the town recently, really no trusting him. After a dramatic series of twists and turns, the people finally have a suspect: Flora, normally a quiet individual, but as everyone knows, quiet can be dangerous.

Flora holds her head high as she's led up to the gallows, smirking around at her executioners. "Idiots. You think you have us now? You have no idea how far you are from the truth..."

Flora is dead. She was Mafia.

Seventy-two hours for night actions.*


(( * I'm going to be at an eco reserve for the next three nights, and although there's supposed to be wi-fi, I'm dubious of the degree to which it will actually work. I'll get the next day up on time if possible, but if I have connectivity issues it'll come a day or two late, probably Friday/Saturday in your time zone. Sorry for the delay, but we should be back on a normal schedule after that. Wish me luck looking for wild kiwis! ))
 
Re: [N2] ASB Halloween Mafia

After another turbulent night--of waiting breathless by the door with a baseball bat, for those townsfolk who didn't venture out--a rather tired and frazzled group gathers in ASB Central. It's no surprise that, despite their hopes, one person is notably missing. When you make yourself known to the Mafia... you can't expect to last for long.

RedneckPhoenix is dead. He was Town.

Seventy-two hours for discussion.
 
Re: [D3] ASB Halloween Mafia

Well, that's not quite what I had suspected. I suppose jailor could still be a dangerous role to the mafia, if it can prevent their kills from going through, but it didn't seem like the most directly threatening role - if anything, because of its "blocks all actions" vagueness, it makes a good chunk of mud to throw in the water to hide the killers swimming underneath.
 
Re: [D3] ASB Halloween Mafia

Eifie, ILS, I'm curious who the two of you redirected/inspected last night.
 
Re: [D2] ASB Halloween Mafia

Like the flavor text says, I guess RedneckPhoenix was killed just because he had claimed, since ILS would be the more likely target for any doctors? It's good he had the chance to say who he targeted before he died, at least, so we're not in the dark about his role, but Flora didn't say much of anything that could connect her to anyone...

Here's an updated version of the list based on the night. ILS/Eifie, who did you target last night? And does anyone else have information we can act on today (especially if anyone got roleblocked, which could tell us who RedneckPhoenix targeted last night)?

  1. Zero Moment: Redirected to Flora by Eifie n0 (or not, depending on how the jailed/redirected interaction works).
  2. Gzhoom
  3. RedneckPhoenix: Town. Killed (presumably by mafia) n2. Claims jailor (blocks all actions to/from his target), targeted Flora n0 and MF n1.
  4. Flora: Mafia (probably goon based on n0), lynched d2. Claims vanilla townie who is secretly a miller. Jailed by RedneckPhoenix n0. ZM's action might or might not have been redirected to her n0. ILS's action was redirected to her n1, with result Mafia.
  5. Cynder
  6. Metallica Fanboy: Jailed by RedneckPhoenix n1.
  7. Superbird: Town. Killed (presumably by mafia) n0.
  8. Butterfree
  9. Eifie: Claims redirector, redirected ZM to Flora n0 and ILS to Flora n1.
  10. Stryke: Town. Killed (presumably by mafia) n1.
  11. I liek Squirtles: Claims cop, targeted Kratos n0 (result: town) and Keldeo n1 (result: mafia). Redirected to Flora by Eifie n1.
  12. Keldeo: Inspected by ILS n1 with result Mafia, but his action was redirected to Flora by Eifie that night.
  13. Kratos Aurion: Inspected by ILS n0 with result Town.
  14. Sandstone-Shadow
 
Re: [D3] ASB Halloween Mafia

Also, reading back through the thread, it looks like everyone voted for Flora yesterday except Flora (obviously), RedneckPhoenix, and Cynder, who didn't post at all. Was there a particular reason for that, Cynder?
 
Re: [D3] ASB Halloween Mafia

I'm still a little confused about what happened on N0. Not sure if it really matters or not, but maybe could poke holes in someone's argument? N0, RedneckPhoenix claimed to jail Flora, which wouldn't affect the mafia's kill if Flora was a goon, but it would have prevented the kill if Flora was the don? Is there any other story that could have led to the same situation? What if Flora was the don and a vigilante killed someone N0? The presence of a vigilante seems unlikely given that we only have one kill N1 and N2 - unless ZM was a vigilante and targeted Superbird, but ZM was redirected by Eifie to Flora N0, so. I think you're right, Keldeo, and Flora was a goon.
 
Re: [D3] ASB Halloween Mafia

I did not have anything useful to contribute to the conversation at that point. My actions so far have been useless.
 
Re: [D3] ASB Halloween Mafia

I redirected SS to Cynder.

I'm still a little confused about what happened on N0. Not sure if it really matters or not, but maybe could poke holes in someone's argument? N0, RedneckPhoenix claimed to jail Flora, which wouldn't affect the mafia's kill if Flora was a goon, but it would have prevented the kill if Flora was the don? Is there any other story that could have led to the same situation? What if Flora was the don and a vigilante killed someone N0? The presence of a vigilante seems unlikely given that we only have one kill N1 and N2 - unless ZM was a vigilante and targeted Superbird, but ZM was redirected by Eifie to Flora N0, so. I think you're right, Keldeo, and Flora was a goon.

There are pretty much always multiple stories that could lead to a certain death situation, with most of them being pretty unlikely. imo it's not really worth considering that maybe we could have had a vigilante that for some reason decided to actually target Superbird on n0, especially because I don't see why it really matters whether Flora was don or goon. (Also, I think maybe you meant to talk about Stryke instead of ZM? ZM is still alive.)
 
Re: [D3] ASB Halloween Mafia

I redirected SS to Cynder.

Time for my role, then. Once a night, I can switch the consequences of two players. Last night, I did this to SS and ILS. If I understand my role correctly, that means that the end result was you redirecting ILS’s action, if any, to Cynder.
 
Re: [D3] ASB Halloween Mafia

Huh. Looks like we have both a Redirector and a Deflector this game. Looks like things are gonna be a bit fucky during the nights.
 
Re: [D3] ASB Halloween Mafia

Eifie said:
There are pretty much always multiple stories that could lead to a certain death situation, with most of them being pretty unlikely. imo it's not really worth considering that maybe we could have had a vigilante that for some reason decided to actually target Superbird on n0, especially because I don't see why it really matters whether Flora was don or goon. (Also, I think maybe you meant to talk about Stryke instead of ZM? ZM is still alive.)
Oh, yeah I think you're right and I meant to talk about Superbird or Stryke. The comment "ZM's N0 action disappeared into the ether" keeps making me think ZM died on N0, but that's not right. And yeah, I guess it doesn't matter if Flora was a don or goon.

I investigated RedneckPhoenix last night :(

I redirected SS to Cynder.

Time for my role, then. Once a night, I can switch the consequences of two players. Last night, I did this to SS and ILS. If I understand my role correctly, that means that the end result was you redirecting ILS’s action, if any, to Cynder.

First off, ILS, what did you get from your investigation? I'm assuming your action resulted in town, which would be consistent with Negrek's post, otherwise you would have threw up a flag. Can you confirm?

Secondly, is there a particular order of operations for Eifie's and Gzhoom's actions? I'm not saying for now whether or not I have a night action, but if Gzhoom's action happens first, then ILS's target would be my original hypothetical target, but if Eifie's happens first, then ILS's target would be Cynder. Right?

Gzhoom goes first:
ILS -> RedneckPhoenix -(Gzhoom switches me and ILS)> my potential target -(Eifie redirects me to Cynder)> my potential target
Me -> my potential target -(Gzhoom switches me and ILS)> RedneckPhoenix -(Eifie redirects me to Cynder)> Cynder

Eifie goes first:
ILS -> RedneckPhoenix -(Eifie redirects me to Cynder)> RedneckPhoenix -(Gzhoom switches me and ILS)> Cynder
Me -> my potential target -(Eifie redirects me to Cynder)> Cynder -(Gzhoom switches me and ILS)> RedneckPhoenix

Is that right? Or am I overthinking this?
 
Re: [D3] ASB Halloween Mafia

Time for my role, then. Once a night, I can switch the consequences of two players. Last night, I did this to SS and ILS. If I understand my role correctly, that means that the end result was you redirecting ILS’s action, if any, to Cynder.

Does your role have "bus driver" in it? Just want to make sure, because "consequences" could mean different things.

Secondly, is there a particular order of operations for Eifie's and Gzhoom's actions? I'm not saying for now whether or not I have a night action, but if Gzhoom's action happens first, then ILS's target would be my original hypothetical target, but if Eifie's happens first, then ILS's target would be Cynder. Right?

Gzhoom goes first:
ILS -> RedneckPhoenix -(Gzhoom switches me and ILS)> my potential target -(Eifie redirects me to Cynder)> my potential target
Me -> my potential target -(Gzhoom switches me and ILS)> RedneckPhoenix -(Eifie redirects me to Cynder)> Cynder

Eifie goes first:
ILS -> RedneckPhoenix -(Eifie redirects me to Cynder)> RedneckPhoenix -(Gzhoom switches me and ILS)> Cynder
Me -> my potential target -(Eifie redirects me to Cynder)> Cynder -(Gzhoom switches me and ILS)> RedneckPhoenix

Is that right? Or am I overthinking this?

I think both of those are the right results in each scenario. If Gzhoom's role PM does talk about "consequences", I think the second scenario is more likely. We could possibly just ask Negrek about precedence.

Gzhoom, what were your actions the first two nights? I'm assuming they were nothing that possibly could have interfered with an investigation? If your role is actually bus driver, you could probably swap investigation targets.
 
Re: [D3] ASB Halloween Mafia

I think both of those are the right results in each scenario. If Gzhoom's role PM does talk about "consequences", I think the second scenario is more likely. We could possibly just ask Negrek about precedence.

Negreeeeeek please advise? :D
 
Re: [D3] ASB Halloween Mafia

By the way, I should mention that I'm finding the presence of two redirecting roles a little bit fishy. I think Gzhoom's new so I wouldn't really expect him to be lying, but I just wanted to throw that out there instead of forgetting the thought completely.

Of course, Negrek could just want to make the game more interesting and less like, straightforward "everyone does their night action and reports back and it's all easy", etc.
 
Re: [D3] ASB Halloween Mafia

I guess my action did have an effect last night, which throws a wrench into your nice list. I am a roleblocker, and I blocked Gzhoom on N2.
 
Re: [D3] ASB Halloween Mafia

I'm not sure I understand this wording of "switching the consequences", but I'd assume that it's about switching out who gets targeted by night actions -- id est, bus driving, which is a pretty standard role.

If Ghzoom is, in fact, a bus driver, then the targets of ILS and Sandstone-Shadow's actions (if any) are not directly affected, but Eifie targets ILS instead of Sandstone-Shadow, redirecting his action to Cynder. This is the likeliest resolution, assuming that Negrek is running a problem-solution oriented night action resolution. If Negrek is running a fixed-priority resolution, then it depends on whether bus drivers have the priority over redirectors (which gives us the same scenario) or the opposite (which results in ILS investigating RedneckPhoenix as stated and Sandstone-Shadow's action, if any, targeting Cynder in lieu of the original target, if any).

To sum it up, the two possible conclusions:
-Cynder is innocent and Sandstone-Shadow's hypothetical action has not been redirected (likeliest)
-Sandstone-Shadow's hypothetical action has been redirected to Cynder, if it exists, and ILS's investigative result is still irrelevant

This is, of course, assuming all players involved have been honest about their night actions so far. ILS and Eifie aren't exceedingly likely to be running any anti-town gamuts, as their combined info just led to an earlygame mafia lynch in the previous day, and Sandstone-Shadow hasn't really provided information so far, so her end of it can't be considered honest or dishonest unless she's omitting something important. Still, there's no reason for or against taking Ghzoom's claim at face value -- and for that matter, no reason to assume he's town, since mafia-aligned bus drivers are at least as standard as town-aligned ones if not moreso. (his info does potentially clear a player, which is useful, but somewhat low-consequence for a mafiosx attempting to build rapport via a technically honest roleclaim).

More to the point -- 10 players live, of which, most likely, 2~3 are mafia. If we assume that ILS, Eifie, and Cynder are all clear, then we only have another 4~5 (out of 7) players to eliminate before we can we make a reliable lynch by elimination.
 
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